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obviously what mathilde needs to do is assassinate the tzar and make it look like it was boris
if no one's happy it's a good compromise
if no one's happy it's a good compromise
Yeah, well, I expect such responses to messages that use metagaming for the benefit of arguing FOR this idea as well, please.
If we abandon all metagaming altogether, then there again comes the question of whether Boris might be under the influence of Chaos. He's doing something objectively crazy. We don't know him that well. The tributaries (or any other personal benefits) are not important enough to be a consideration. So that only leaves international politics and the Empire's benefit. If the current tsar was bad enough for the Empire, and the Empire had capable enough assassins to manage it reliably, wouldn't we have assassinated him already? Plus, we are not THAT good at assassinations (we're more a direct battle kind of wizard). Our exfiltration form is lacking. We didn't manage to assassinate the "Emperor" during the training exercise way back when, and we definitely didn't manage to do that without making it known that we are behind it. What makes you think she will fare better against a different head of state? In a foreign country? Imagine that we botch the assassination attempt, and it becomes known that we were behind it. The Empire would (rightly) deny that they ordered it, Boris would (rightly) deny any association. We become a persona non grata everywhere, we are declared a Black Magister, the alliance between the Empire and Kislev fizzles out, Waystone project dies, Kragg is disappointed. The risks are not worth it.
Almost certainly less innocent I'd say, if only because of sheer scale. You can't rule a medieval kingdom without hurting killing a lot of people, that's not how kingdoms work.I think the whole 'innocent' thing is rather overplaying things, the man is an autocrat of dubious skill and even more dubious self control. As far as we know he has not done anything reprehensible, but by the nature of his position he has probably done plenty in both his personal and political perspective, he is at best about as 'innocent' as Mathilde herself.
How did you manage to drag Kragg into this doom spiral, seriously how?
Secondly did you seriously compare LM Mathilde to journeywoman Mathilde. I could quote a list of all the traits and skills we have now and did not have then, but that feels kind of redundant.
Yes we are that good at assassination, we are one of the best on the continent at assassination, certainly among the best Boris has access to.
How is it crazy?Yeah, well, I expect such responses to messages that use metagaming for the benefit of arguing FOR this idea as well, please.
If we abandon all metagaming altogether, then there again comes the question of whether Boris might be under the influence of Chaos. He's doing something objectively crazy. We don't know him that well. The tributaries (or any other personal benefits) are not important enough to be a consideration. So that only leaves international politics and the Empire's benefit. If the current tsar was bad enough for the Empire, and the Empire had capable enough assassins to manage it reliably, wouldn't we have assassinated him already? Plus, we are not THAT good at assassinations (we're more a direct battle kind of wizard). Our exfiltration form is lacking. We didn't manage to assassinate the "Emperor" during the training exercise way back when, and we definitely didn't manage to do that without making it known that we are behind it. What makes you think she will fare better against a different head of state? In a foreign country? Imagine that we botch the assassination attempt, and it becomes known that we were behind it. The Empire would (rightly) deny that they ordered it, Boris would (correctly) deny any association. We become a persona non grata everywhere, we are declared a Black Magister, the alliance between the Empire and Kislev fizzles out, Waystone project dies, Kragg is disappointed. The risks are not worth it.
This sort of assassination? No one we've never had the need to employ the skills like that, at least not against someone who isn't a vampire who you typically cannot get the drop on.I mean, who did we assassinate successfully then? When it was paramount that nobody find out that we did that? It's not really a thing we do. We might be good at it theoretically, but it's not our forte.
And yeah, a Lady Magister is also an important enough person not to RISK on such operations. You can't convince me that the risk of being found out is less than, say, 5%. Is the outcome worth it when the failure means the loss (and the Empire would have to cut ties with us) of a very important diplomat that is the central figure in the Empire's relations with both the Dwarves and the Eonir, not to mention the other benefits that Mathilde brings? We are not a disposable minion, which the best assassins are.
Matriarch, actually.Lady Magister Elspeth Von Drakken, a much more important lady magister, would disagree.
I mean, who did we assassinate successfully since then? When it was paramount that nobody find out that we did that? It's not really a thing we do. We might be good at it theoretically, but it's not our forte.
And yeah, a Lady Magister is also an important enough person not to RISK on such operations. You can't convince me that the risk of being found out is less than, say, 5%. Is the outcome worth it when the failure means the loss (and the Empire would have to cut ties with us) of a very important diplomat that is the central figure in the Empire's relations with both the Dwarves and the Eonir, not to mention the other benefits that Mathilde brings? We are not a disposable minion, which the best assassins are.
How is it crazy?
Kislev is not ready for another conflict on the scale of the Great War against chaos, not even close, and Chaos is rousing itself for something. We know that. But the Tzar isn't doing anything to prepare for that, this is a reasonable inference from every experience we have had around and with the man.
We do know Boris fairly well and this is consistent with his character, when we proposed the waystone project he met with us and he promised that no matter what if it would protect Kislev he'd see it done whether it was threaten elves or move mountains.
As for our current abilities as an assassin, remember that was before Mathilde was a magister, she is now a lord magister and every indication is that
A) He has no magic users protecting him. Who are likely his only means of detecting us.
B) His guards are loyal to his son.
He is not well situated to be protected from assassins of any sort.
This sort of assassination? No one we've never had the need to employ the skills like that, at least not against someone who isn't a vampire who you typically cannot get the drop on.
Lady Magister Elspeth Von Drakken, a much more important lady magister, would disagree.
Yes clearly you cannot be convinced.
Clan Esshin would disagree on that front given that their entire thing are extremely elite assassins.
I mean, you could plausibly see shit like this happening in any kingdom that has an external military threat, or even one that really doesn't, and that's a lot of kingdoms. Ambitious heir offs the old monarch isn't super-common but it isn't unheard of.Honestly, it kind of annoys me that this became about fighting Chaos. Like, it makes sense and all, but dammit you can justify so much in the face of "but Chaos is coming!" And I worry how much more will be. I'm not even talking about the thread or something, I just mean in universe.
Like, Boris doesn't seem to have any particular beef with his father. Disagreements on how best to rule Kislev and stuff sure, but not, you know, actual bad blood or anything. He is even pre-emptively grieving the man even as he plans his murder. But… he is planning his murder. And it seems entirely in character because fucking Chaos is coming, and Kislev can't rest on its laurels.
So, we haven't done this kind of thing *ever*, actually. What is your assessment of our chances of success, then? Based on what, our character sheet? What do you imagine Boney would write if the dice during the assassination attempt fell in the 1-15 region?
At the time Lady Magister. IIRC she killed the empress to shore up her position to take the job. But that just reemphasises the point honestly.
A messy difficult thing, but one where we would ultimately be successful as we brought to bare overwhelming oomph to finish the job and people are left wondering WTF is going on as an invisible illusioned skaven assassin blows up the Tzar with a giant fire ball.So, we haven't done this kind of thing *ever*, actually. What is your assessment of our chances of success, then? Based on what, our character sheet? What do you imagine Boney would write if the dice during the assassination attempt fell in the 1-15 region?
...Barely-a-Magister!Mathilde got close to potentially assassinating the Emperor on her test. And that was how many years and how much experience ago?
It reflects our capabilities, yes. I don't see how this is a question.
Worst case? We'll need either another attempt (read: overwork) or to eliminate a whole bunch of witnesses, which would be genuinely tragic, but by no metric worse than leaving Kislev to tear itself apart.What do you imagine Boney would write if the dice during the assassination attempt fell in the 1-15 region?
Mathilde isn't stupid. She can launder a favor like that. Hell, the success of the project itself is enough to do so.One thing we should probably not ask for as a boon if we do this is MAXIMUM BOOK. The new Tsar immediately giving the Grey Wizard most known for international wheeling-and-dealing for their pet library that specific kind of carte blanche immediately after the suspicious death of the previous Tzar is, admittedly, the kind of anecdote that historians find very funny.
Not a good idea, though.
You're missing the point. That was a statement about the broader feeling. No, it's not 100% accurate in every way here. But A) as a generalization it cannot be and B) attempting to be 100% accurate would be incredibly tedious and bloated. That's just something you have to accept when you do any sort of analysis.I think the whole 'innocent' thing is rather overplaying things, the man is an autocrat of dubious skill and even more dubious self control. As far as we know he has not done anything reprehensible, but by the nature of his position he has probably done plenty in both his personal and political perspective, he is at best about as 'innocent' as Mathilde herself.
Assassinate Boris and make it look like it was the tzarobviously what mathilde needs to do is assassinate the tzar and make it look like it was boris
if no one's happy it's a good compromise
Like its very obvious @loonyphoenix you don't want to be convinced, but I've been down this road. I went down it a lot in another quest for years.
So don't do what I do and rewrite things to justify your narrative.
The facts as they stand are thus.
1) Chaos is stirring.
2) The Tzar isn't preparing for it properly and this isn't a surprise based on past knowledge we have of him.
3) Tzarevich Boris isn't an idiot, but he has repeatedly said he will do anything to save Kislev from Chaos.
4) We were already capable of almost successfully assassinating the emperor before Mathilde was even a magister. We are now a Lady Magister of the grey order going up against a man who disdains both of Kislev's premiere magic users. Mathilde could be an effective assassin with just half of her skills, but she has both and while I doubt it will be that simple the defences he has against the magical half are highly stunted.
At the time Lady Magister. IIRC she killed the empress to shore up her position to take the job. But that just reemphasises the point honestly.
A messy difficult thing, but one where we would ultimately be successful as we brought to bare overwhelming oomph to finish the job and people are left wondering WTF is going on as an invisible illusioned skaven assassin blows up the Tzar with a giant fire ball.
In my case, I think Boris is not the kind of person to resort to such dramatic action without having tried, again and again, to get through to his father with words. If he failed despite the known and present threat to Kislev, I feel no compunctions about finding fault with Vladimir. No ruler worth the throne should be able to ignore warnings about a threat to their people.I think taking the attitude "he had it coming for not being good enough" is morally worse than saying "it's not his fault, but we will kill him anyway".
Mathilde isn't stupid. She can launder a favor like that. Hell, the success of the project itself is enough to do so.
You're missing the point. That was a statement about the broader feeling. No, it's not 100% accurate in every way here. But A) as a generalization it cannot be and B) attempting to be 100% accurate would be incredibly tedious and bloated. That's just something you have to accept when you do any sort of analysis.
But frankly, I'm not happy trying to dig up or conjure dirt on him, so the decision is easier. From all we have heard, he's good at fighting, and uninterested in everything else. Not malevolent, he's happy to let his son do stuff like that. Just negligent. And yes, that's not great. But "does one thing well and doesn't actively fuck up other things", at least historically, already puts him into the range of better rulers. I think taking the attitude "he had it coming for not being good enough" is morally worse than saying "it's not his fault, but we will kill him anyway". As far as I'm concerned, he's close enough to innocent for government work. Trying to invent reasons why it is not so actively makes the choice/story less interesting.
Something you're missing is the cost of not doing it.I am willing to be convinced. Let's try to find some common ground. I think this is worth doing if our chances of success (of both the assassination and getting away with it) is >99%. I think that what we lose to failure is about 100 times worse than what we gain on success. (These are pure heuristics based on my imaginings of the worst case scenario, can't really point you to the equation that would justify it, but that feels right.) And I estimate our chance of failure at about 5%, based on the fact we haven't done many assassinations, that we've previously had considerable trouble with exfiltration, and that we have never actually done a political assassination where we needed to stay incognito.
What would you say your estimations are for the values of success and failure, and how likely (and based on what) do you estimate the failure to be?
So I'm going to vote Yes, when the vote opens, even as I hate what this will cost Mathilde and, even moreso, what it will cost Boris. So put me with the people who have said "we are not extracting a price for this." The thing about things that need to be done is that they need to be done, even if you're doing them for "free." And, besides, he's already paying enough.
TBF, most of the things that can be justified as "to stop chaos" at least in Kislev are things about centralisation.Honestly, it kind of annoys me that this became about fighting Chaos. Like, it makes sense and all, but dammit you can justify so much in the face of "but Chaos is coming!" And I worry how much more will be. I'm not even talking about the thread or something, I just mean in universe.
Like, Boris doesn't seem to have any particular beef with his father. Disagreements on how best to rule Kislev and stuff sure, but not, you know, actual bad blood or anything. He is even pre-emptively grieving the man even as he plans his murder. But… he is planning his murder. And it seems entirely in character because fucking Chaos is coming, and Kislev can't rest on its laurels.
Also in a cold-blooded way we really don't need too. Boris is already going to be doing a lot of what we'd want him to be doing, preparing Kislev for invasion by chaos and when the time comes implementing the project's findings.So put me with the people who have said "we are not extracting a price for this." The thing about things that need to be done is that they need to be done, even if you're doing them for "free." And, besides, he's already paying enough.
I would say that's not common ground since you are expecting scientific certainty levels of success, so no I don't think you are willing to be convinced and you have said as much you are not interested in being convinced.I am willing to be convinced. Let's try to find some common ground. I think this is worth doing if our chances of success (of both the assassination and getting away with it) is >99%. I think that what we lose to failure is about 100 times worse than what we gain on success. (These are pure heuristics based on my imaginings of the worst case scenario, can't really point you to the equation that would justify it, but that feels right.) And I estimate our chance of failure at about 5%, based on the fact we haven't done many assassinations, that we've previously had considerable trouble with exfiltration, and that we have never actually done a political assassination where we needed to stay incognito.
What would you say your estimations are for the values of success and failure, and how likely (and based on what) do you estimate the failure to be?
If we do 'extract a price' it should be something along the lines of a promise to work closer with the Empire. Something that strengthens both countriesWeirdly, the Vow of Poverty means we are well within our right to turn down payment for this. Duty before profit.
Something you're missing is the cost of not doing it.
Boris has pretty much stated that if we don't remove his father he will. That's gonna be messy as shit and could potentially lead to a civil war. If that happens then Kislev is weakened. Kislev is the Empire's best shield against chaos invasions
The reward I would like is Kislev's full cooperation with the Waystone Project, and it is quite likely that if Boris gains power he'd do that anyway, so not sure if asking would change that much.I'm not really inclined for any reward beyond "Make Kislev as strong as you wish".
Boris will probably broaden ties with the Empire anyway.
Then frankly I think your numbers are wildly off. A potential Kislevite civil war could put the entire Empire at risk when the next Chaos invasion strikes. Compared to that the costs of failing the assassination are minor. Worst case we'd be kicked out of the colleges and declared a traitor. A high personal cost, sure but a personal cost compared to the potential cost to the empire.I'm including the opportunity cost of not doing it in the value of success. I think that the benefits of doing it compared to the potential civil war (that I'm not 100% convinced would actually happen - again, it's to Boris's benefit to make us think it's a done deal, but he might still be hesitating and evaluating other options) is 100 smaller than what we would lose if we fail.