The only thing I want out of this is for the Chrystovians to not be annexed or forced into the Pact. That's it.

Not freeing the Bajorans, or marching on Cardassia.

You can't get that. Sorry. The time to act there was five in-game years ago. It is basically physically impossible to get enough forces in place to actually fight off the Cardassians. The only option is a general war in the hopes that beating the Cardassians badly enough will lead to them coughing up Chrystovian independence as a concession.
 
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The only thing I want out of this is for the Chrystovians to not be annexed or forced into the Pact. That's it.

Not freeing the Bajorans, or marching on Cardassia.
What you want can't happen without a bloody war between great powers. unless you've got a time machine you've stolen from office 0 or some way of influencing CU internal affairs non militarily that has escaped the brightest minds of the federation, those are the options that are on the table.
 
You can't get that. Sorry. The time to act there was five in-game years ago.
Bull. It'd take a week for the CU to crush their Navy, a month to destroy all space born assets (ie mines). But ending a Guerilla war in a month? Hell, they'll be lucky to have secured a city. All we'd need to do is blockade a few worlds and their ground forces are fucked.
 
Bull. It'd take a week for the CU to crush their Navy, a month to destroy all space born assets (ie mines). But ending a Guerilla war in a month? Hell, they'll be lucky to have secured a city. All we'd need to do is blockade a few worlds and their ground forces are fucked.

That's not remotely how wars in this setting go. Have you not been paying attention to the past several we've observed? Securing the orbitals is all that matters.
 
Bull. It'd take a week for the CU to crush their Navy, a month to destroy all space born assets (ie mines). But ending a Guerilla war in a month? Hell, they'll be lucky to have secured a city. All we'd need to do is blockade a few worlds and their ground forces are fucked.
Without logistical support. While effectively behind enemy lines, significantly outnumbered (unless you want to strip more garrisons than we can afford). The update itself said that it's all to likely that the whole thing will be a suicide mission even if it does work. Remember, they can reinforce their fleets much, much easier than we can ours, since you know, we either have to go through their territory or spend months looping around them.
 
Bull. It'd take a week to crush their Navy, a month to destroy all space born assets (ie mines). But ending a Guerilla war in a month? Hell, they'll be lucky to have secured a city. All we'd need to do is blockade a few worlds and their ground forces are fucked.

HAHAHAHA... wait, you are being serious? because that doesn't sound like send a force to Chrystovia to stop anexation, it sounds like going to war with the Ashalla pact head on

It will take any force two months to get there, but keep in mind we need to send extra forces to keep the supply lines to that force intact-ish and we also need to reinforce all the border, mostly because two of our border members aren't ready for a war, so it will fall on Starfleet to do the heavy lifting.

As for Cardassia, they will own all that matters by then, sure guerrilla will guerilla, but so what?

Honestly, the only thing you need to add in that post to make you seem more out of touch is "it will be over by Christmas"
 
That's not remotely how wars in this setting go. Have you not been paying attention to the past several we've observed? Securing the orbitals is all that matters.
We've seen one annexation so far. Bajor.

The Sydraxians collapsed into civil war, we didn't annex the Licori -just forced them to come to our terms-, the biophage was unique and doesn't apply, the Klingons were trying to force the Romulans to retreat then took worlds via peace treaty.... which ones am i missing?

Edit: aaaaaand chaos has me seeing red. imma go cool off now.

Toodles!
 
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We can't save the the Chrystovians.
We made that decision years ago.

We can threaten open, general war. But we can't project force to protect the Chrystovians. A fleet we put out there, in open war, is very, very likely to be cut off and lost, beyond our support.

All we can do is punish the cardassians and ourselves with general war. Which will lead to millions of STO, Indorians and Apiata suffering.

Or, we grit our teeth. Accept we made the realpolitik decision years ago. And invest and prepare for next time.
 
We've seen one annexation so far. Bajor.

The Sydraxians collapsed into civil war, we didn't annex the Licori -just forced them to come to our terms-, the biophage was unique and doesn't apply, the Klingons were trying to force the Romulans to retreat then took worlds via peace treaty.... which ones am i missing?
You're missing the part where the Cardassians are knocking the doors down right now while it would take 1 month minimum to get any ships over there. When they get there, the situation will be halfway gone.

The relief force will have no resupply since the Chrystovians are not affiliates so are unable to offer logistical support to our ships. At this point the Cardassians can either back down or call our bluff and start shooting. Being completely cutoff from reinforcements or help, and probably outnumbered, our task force will almost certainly proceed to explode into tiny pieces and now we're back to a general war only we've just thrown a few ships away in a pointless attempt to stop something that needed years of buildup to prevent in the first place.
 
Bull. It'd take a week for the CU to crush their Navy, a month to destroy all space born assets (ie mines). But ending a Guerilla war in a month? Hell, they'll be lucky to have secured a city. All we'd need to do is blockade a few worlds and their ground forces are fucked.

That's....that's not how space war works at all. I'm sorry, but none of this is actually workable.

You can't really contest orbit with ground weapons, and there is a single "I win every time" button that every empire ruthless enough can fall back on:
It's called "I call down a photon torpedo strike on every city quarter that looks at me funny". You can't oppose a warship in space with rifles on the ground, and Pact isn't like us, where their authorities would wrang back and forth over moral conundrum striking a populated area with photon warhead would entail. If Chrystovians make a hell of their worlds, Pact will simply nuke them block by block, and they will surrender unconditionally. Nothing we have seen of them indicates that they have something like Homeworld 2 levels of "Our capital world is literally a hardened fortress capable of withstanding constant bombardment and siege for a year".

And this is based on somewhat optimistic pillars that:

A) Chrystovians will actually fanatically resist Cardassians at every opportunity.
B) Chrystovians would be actually capable of standing up to a lightning invasion assault.

Because warfare with orbital capability is hillariously meme thing. You aren't bound by petty things we have in real life such as time, distance, supplies, enemy interception. You can land everywhere, at any time, with force strong enough to establish a beachhead under the guns of your warships, the smallest of which is a WMD in planetary environment.


I will repeat it as long as it's humanly possible: Saving Chrystovians without general war with Pact is. Not. Possible. It's not even a question of "call bluff/not call bluff"; they will quite likely be rolled up before we even get there! And we're the closest!

The only possible way in which we can force them off - and incidentally, relieve pressure on our now-isolated battle group to prevent it from total annihilation - is a general war at the intensity of Romulan-Klingon one, and advance towards Bajor. Because that's literally just about the only way Cardassians will absolutely take this seriously, and divert their forces there.

And that's based on assessment that we can actually get it done. Given that we have not paid attention to Pact fleet for a while, we might very well get stonewalled while our expeditionary force is massacred and Chrystovians subjugated.
 
[X] We should not intervene in the Chrystovian invasion.

Okay, I'm convinced that we're not able to actually do anything for the Chrystovians, short of total war with the Cardassians. After this, though, we need to push for more cooperation with the ISC and faster affiliation or accession of states in that area so that next time the Cardassians get up to something we can actually intervene.
 
[X] We should not intervene in the Chrystovian invasion.

Okay, I'm convinced that we're not able to actually do anything for the Chrystovians, short of total war with the Cardassians. After this, though, we need to push for more cooperation with the ISC and faster affiliation or accession of states in that area so that next time the Cardassians get up to something we can actually intervene.

I like the plan of taking our next Ambition as "contain the Ashalla Pact" to make sure we focus on this.

Definitely we need an Allupii Task Force in the area-getting them on-side means we can negotiate defense agreements between them and any other minors Cardassia's threatening, and they can act as a base from which 5YMs can launch to locate other potential Cardassian targets. We diplomatically isolate Cardassia, trapping them in a network of alliances and treaties and cutting off their expansionist dreams. Simultaneously we refocus SFI on finding evidence of Cardassian atrocities (they're fascists, there will be some) that can be used to lobby council members internally or as a last resort leaked to the press by sacrificial officers, building up the political will we'll need if we want to commit to a campaign to shatter the Ashalla Pact.
 
Omake - Ship of Fools - brmj
Begun, the Omake Wars have...


Ship of Fools


It was more a token effort than anything, at least at the start.

The Chrystovians were too far away, and the Cardassian invasion too imminent. Even Starfleet wouldn't likely be able to get there before the invasion was well underway. With typical civilian drives... It wasn't going to happen.

The quickly thrown together set of NGO and activist group representatives working out the details of a possible aid convoy would likely have had to give up, or satisfy themselves with a handful of ships arriving many months after they were needed. Perhaps a medical ship from the venerable Doctors Without Borders or the even older Vulcan Sophantarian Medical Society, a couple Carryalls from the Volunteer Spacelift Coordination Collective and a handful of whatever ships could be scrounged elsewhere carrying aid supplies, observers and volunteers. Not nothing, but probably too late to matter. No one liked it, but there didn't seem to be any other options besides trying to attach themselves to a hypothetical Federation force, something that would compromise their independence more than some found acceptable.

Another option came from the least likely direction imaginable.

The Doddar Kodath Research Institute had a fast ship for them.

The Doak-Neat had begun life as an old-model Gaeni passenger ship. It had been acquired at end-of life, gutted, and rebuilt as a testbed for a prototype transwarp drive. The drive was quite successful compared to most Gaeni transwarp drive prototypes: though the advanced warp field design it was intended to test proved dangerously unstable, the ship survived the tests with only minor damage and ended up capable of maintaining excellent speed with a more conventional field configuration. Since then, the Doak-Neat had been outfitted to support research expeditions and incidentally used to test any number of minor modifications, devices and experiments, continuing its remarkable survival record despite the odds.

Now, the frequently ignored and disrespected department of applied social sciences had managed to call in enough favors to acquire a full six months of time on it, pre-empting a less time sensitive request from exobiology.

The Cardassian declaration of war had informed them of an opportunity they had hardly even dared to imagine: a chance to learn the results of hundreds of experiments the ethics board wouldn't approve. The only problem was getting in and out without being vaporized.



The proposal was met with stunned silence, perhaps augmented by the subspace lag from those calling in from farther away.

Emilio Rodriguez from Amnesty Interplanetary was the first to respond. "You want us to what?!"

"It's simple. We provide the ship, you get us past the Cardassians. They aren't going to shoot a sophantarian aid ship, are they? Then we get the data and rescue a few of the best researchers if we can, you distribute your aid and report on the situation, and when it becomes untenable, we go home."

Haedis had her doubts about whether the Cardassians would really hold their fire, but she wouldn't let it stop her. As a Knight of the Order of the Quill, she was fully prepared to lay down her life to expose Cardassian atrocities to the galaxy. The truth would get out, one way or another.

That wasn't the part Raima Dal of the Anti-Imperialist Action League objected to. "That data, if it even exists, is the result of unethical, illegal research carried out at the cost of incalculable suffering."

"Exactly! This way, we don't have to do it ourselves!"

Raima looked unamused, but T'Dak from the Spuvek Institute for Non-Violence responded first. "Illogical. Proper research requires replication to confirm results."

Haedis looked at her in horror. This might be the worst time for that piece of advice in all of history.

The fast and loose Gaeni approach to science saved them today. "Unfortunately, the ethics committee said we'll have to make do."



It had been a fairly contentious debate, with several organizations nearly withdrawing in disgust, but in the end, pragmatism won out: the Doak-Neat would be leaving immediately at best speed for Chrystovian space, picking up a hand-picked set of volunteers and aid supplies along the way. Along with the high-value medical supplies, doctors, Amnesty Interplanetary observers and the like, there would be a team of Order of the Quill conflict-journalists.

Haedis was going to ask to lead them: the truth needed to get out, and she wasn't going to send others to their deaths and stay at home like a coward. It wasn't the Amarki way.
 
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Raima looked unamused, but T'Dak from the Spuvek Institute for Non-Violence responded first. "Illogical. Proper research requires replication to confirm results."

Haedis looked at her in horror. This might be the worst time for that piece of advice in all of history.

The fast and loose Gaeni approach to science saved them today. "Unfortunately, the ethics committee said we'll have to make do."

Fucking. Gold.
 
Like, one thing I want to point out, and I've hinted at in various omakes but has also been lurking the canon like during the Eternal Empire opening with the Tellarites: Federation member states maintain armored vehicles, close air support assets, light artillery like mortars, crew-served weaponry, and such not because these things are necessary, but because they are generally unwilling to level all resistance with orbital phaser strikes and then dispatch unsupported light infantry to occupy and thus needs other options when it comes to taking ground.
 
The essential problem with the current Cardassian Union is that the military junta that rules it has a policy of military adventurism. They tend to launch aggressive military ventures at what they perceive as problems or opportunities. We saw this as far back as the Orion Syndicate and Celos. However, in the resolution of the GBZ conflict, we both severely punished military adventurism and saw the the civilian government has enough play to influence foreign affairs. Based on many, many occasions in the quest: the Syndicate, Celos, Sydraxian Spring, What Is Best In Life, the Treaty of Gabriel, as well as counter-examples like Bajor, it seems clear to me that in order to prevent a situations like Bajor or Chrystovia, the only long-term option we have is to repeatedly punish military adventurism and in doing so utterly destroy the credibility of the Cardassian military.



I've seen a lot of people prevaricate about "next time". Guess what, friends? There isn't going to be a good next time! We aren't going to be stronger next time! The strategic position of next time is not going to be better! The Cardassians aren't going to decide to launch attacks at good times for us!

Right now we have several important things going for us:

1. We have torn two polities away from the Cardassian military alliance, in essence making up for the entire potential growth of the Pact members.

2. We have the backing and military assistance of two other major powers. We are never going to have this again if we refuse intervention. Why would they offer their assistance next time if we proved unwilling to do anything this time? Not to mention by the looks of things next time is going to be a feudalistic hellhole government, not exactly someone the HoH is going to be jumping to "defend liberty" for. If we don't accept joint military action now, we will not get it in the future.

3. We are able to federalize five entire member fleets without cost other than crew. Ship damaged? Instant replacement. State of Emergency? Grab the reservists and instant fleet. Even under SoE we will not have this option next time.

4. The state of the fleet is quite good right now. Between the normal member fleet draw and Starfleet we exceed the Cardassian Union Navy even without an emergency Council bill to draft more forces. There is no guarantee we can do so in the future; most of the next 5 years of production is choked up with Keplers (unnecessary to warfare in large numbers), Ambassadors (not designed for fleet combat), and refits (new builds are better for adding to the fleet total). Meanwhile the Cardassians will have committed a reasonable fleet to this invasion and their next-generation designs have not completed full roll-out. Not to mention, if we hit SoE, we can dump a bunch of new Rennaisance-As, Comets, or next-gen frigates into service without prototype time / refit delay. If you think things get better, guess what, everyone is pushing on ship design tech all the time, we might have moments of advantage but this rat race isn't going to suddenly swing our way; that's not how it works.

5. The people we are intervening on behalf of are actually pretty decent. They've shared science and culture with us, and remember the log when the Chrystovians responded to the S'harien's distress call? No objectionable tags at all. The idea that alleged interference in pre-warp cultures is some horrific war-worthy offense is laughable and hypocritical. It's basically a tag that we would want to resolve, true, but not one that we'd go "okay, load torpedoes and deliver ultimatums". Perhaps we should wage warfare upon the Shanpurr for the same offense. But "next time", we'll be intervening on behalf of a bunch of guys who make the Gorn look kind.

6. The ISC offer means that the Dylarrians will not be able to send significant aid to the Cardassians, and the presence of the Hismeri mean that the Imelak can't either. Yes, it's not a good situation with the Hishmeri, but we can't pretend it doesn't exist and crucially, neither can the Imelak. Two of the crucial Cardassian allies are going to be occupied if it goes to a war.

7. Who exactly is going to be closer to us than the Chrystovians? Even if we resolved the Alluppi Distant Stars tag it doesn't change that you have to fly across the entire Cardassian Union to reach them. I take issue with the viability of sending a diplomatic task force that distance through hostile territory, nevermind war relief, no matter how much preparatory work we do. The fact is that there isn't going to be a species in a more convenient location. Next time, if it's the Alluppi, or a new first contact, will be even more impossible to reach.

Next time is a sham.


I feel that for practical reasons, we cannot let this go. Punishing Cardassian military aggression will reap benefits in giving pause to the Cardassian military in the future even if we do not entirely succeed in discrediting their policies. Not to mention, it sets a precedent in that when we see something unacceptable to our sensibilities, we will do something about it.

The last few days before this came up, we discussed exactly this: we have to more aggressively intervene when we see problem present themselves. This will often mean trying to pre-empt issues by assigning task forces, but it also means we need to cultivate a culture and political willingness to go to bat if confronted with a crisis. Being able to ultimatum the Cardassians here is necessary for the Federation political apparatus to deal with the next crisis, and the next, and the next. If we don't, "next time" may not even happen, because the politicians will look at what we did last time and go "why should I let that hot potato land in my lap when the last guy tossed it on". If we want to pursue this policy we just discussed of action over leaving things sit, then we better actually take action over leaving things sit. Not to mention, the consequences for our relationship with the ISC and HoH for next time, in that we will destroy the possibility if we choose no.

Remember that we don't get to do anything without someone like the Cardassians instigating something horrible. IW said as much: you want to liberate the Bajorans or the Chrystovians outside of Cardassian action that we object to (as in literally now), you need a Hawk president and a Hawk-driven coalition in the Council. Fat chance of that.



The one thing I am concerned about is that the Council and the Federation public may not have the willingness to commit enough resources towards the problem and for long enough (up to and including multiple periods of warfare), and that the same goes for the thread voters. That does give me a lot of pause. I was also briefly persuaded by the arguments that we missed our chance years ago, but I decided those arguments do not hold water. Just because something could have been better earlier doesn't have any bearing on the argument for or against it now, and I also think that it's okay to say we were wrong then and should change our mind because we were wrong, even if being wrong made things a lot harder for us.

But having looked at:
1. The desired end result: stopping Cardassian military adventurism as a state policy.
2. The actual facts about the deployment and possible strength we can bring to bear.
3. The actual facts about who can come to the aid of both sides.
4. The question of what next time might look like.
5. The effects of intervention or non-intervention on likely future policy or expectations.

I must vote thus:
[X] We should intervene in the Chrystovian invasion.
 
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The essential problem with the current Cardassian Union is that the military junta that rules it has a policy of military adventurism. They tend to launch aggressive military ventures at what they perceive as problems or opportunities. We saw this as far back as the Orion Syndicate and Celos. However, in the resolution of the GBZ conflict, we both severely punished military adventurism and saw the the civilian government has enough play to influence foreign affairs. Based on many, many occasions in the quest: the Syndicate, Celos, Sydraxian Spring, What Is Best In Life, the Treaty of Gabriel, as well as counter-examples like Bajor, it seems clear to me that in order to prevent a situations like Bajor or Chrystovia, the only long-term option we have is to repeatedly punish military adventurism and in doing so utterly destroy the credibility of the Cardassian military.

Just to put cards on the table, though, your goal here is primarily to punish Cardassians. If we don't end up saving the Chrystovians, you'll still consider it an acceptable outcome. The main goal is a good opportunity to cause Cardassia pain in response to military adventure. That's what you said in chat, right?
 
The one thing I am concerned about is that the Council and the Federation public may not have the willingness to commit enough resources towards the problem and for long enough (up to and including multiple periods of warfare), and that the same goes for the thread voters. That does give me a lot of pause.

Y-eah, the kind of war you're talking about? The Federation does not have the stomach for this. Not for a species that isn't even an affiliate member, not when the Council is barely holding together. Our political system is simply not built to sustain the kind of military strategy you're proposing, nor can we stomach the costs.
 
Just to put cards on the table, though, your goal here is primarily to punish Cardassians. If we don't end up saving the Chrystovians, you'll still consider it an acceptable outcome. The main goal is a good opportunity to cause Cardassia pain in response to military adventure. That's what you said in chat, right?

If the best we can achieve is that we have caused the Cardassian military significant pain or embarrassment, and we can not in fact achieve the goal of saving the Chrystovians because of practical or political reasons (we lose a battle, we don't get Council votes, the Council wants peace early, etc), then I think that's acceptable. Setting the goal as Save The Chrystovians with the alternative of It All Ends In Fire is silly, because even that doesn't deal with the basic problem: there will always be another Bajor Chrystovia. I see it better to go for the source of the problem, especially because for realist reasons we may not actually be able to save the Chrystovians even if we give it our very best shot. But as a consequence of trying, we can make the Cardassian military regret their adventurism and the Cardassian government as a whole question their competence.
 
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If the best we can achieve is that we have caused the Cardassian military significant pain or embarrassment, and we can not in fact achieve the goal of saving the Chrystovians because of practical or political reasons, then I think that's acceptable. Setting the goal as Save The Chrystovians with the alternative of It All Ends In Fire is silly, because even that doesn't deal with the basic problem: there will always be another Bajor. I see it better to go for the source of the problem, especially because for realist reasons we may not actually be able to save the Chrystovians even if we give it our very best shot. But as a consequence of trying, we can make the Cardassian military regret their adventurism and the Cardassian government as a whole question their competence.

At the cost of making us look like a dangerous bunch of interventionists to the various authoritarians we've been trying to negotiate into not conquering people, yes. The Cardassians are one problem out of many-I don't believe that it's reasonable to blow up potential relations with the Gorn, the Ittick-ka, and the Klingons by setting precedent like this, that if you step out of line we'll come down on you so that priority 1 for all our neighborhood autocrats is destroy the Federation so they can conquer freely. Our strength is not military, though industry gives us military might; the Federation's greatest strengths have always been diplomacy and science, and I cannot countenance destroying that by turning the Federation into the kind of society that they'd need to be to sustain your vision of constantly shooting Cardassians whenever they put a toe out of line.
 
At the cost of making us look like a dangerous bunch of interventionists to the various authoritarians we've been trying to negotiate into not conquering people, yes. The Cardassians are one problem out of many-I don't believe that it's reasonable to blow up potential relations with the Gorn, the Ittick-ka, and the Klingons by setting precedent like this, that if you step out of line we'll come down on you so that priority 1 for all our neighborhood autocrats is destroy the Federation so they can conquer freely. Our strength is not military, though industry gives us military might; the Federation's greatest strengths have always been diplomacy and science, and I cannot countenance destroying that by turning the Federation into the kind of society that they'd need to be to sustain your vision of constantly shooting Cardassians whenever they put a toe out of line.
We are a dangerous bunch of interventionists. The various authoritarians should be afraid. Or at least that's how I see it, because I'm the most dangerous kind of Pacifist: one who sometimes votes Hawk.
 
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