I would point out Occam's Razor. Julia has shitty Stewardship and we assigned her on a moneymaking task. She might well have simply estimated the costs and returns wrongly.
Yeah, so maybe next time we can
not do that and instead do something useful...
Can't decide on what to vote, but I think I've narrowed it down a little to the ones I prefer.
[ ] The best battle is one where the enemy never gets a strike in.
Bonuses or narrative incentives for pre-emptive strikes, maybe an Intrigue bonus. Leads to Mathilde prioritising investigation and subtle action.
[ ] Magic is unreliable, gods are doubly so: always have a mundane solution.
"Be prepared". It's a good motto to live by (and a better villain song). Unfortunate connotations for Mathilde's wizardry and relationship with Ranald, though.
[ ] The fog of war is a bitch, to all involved.
Intel becomes more important to Mathilde. Maybe a bonus to developing
@Alliterate's fog of war divination spell.
[ ] Expertise matters. And Stirland has precious little of it.
Developing what native human capital we can and importing what else we need. Could be good for personal development, too.
And for damage:
[ ] The Colleges of Magic act in their own interest, rather than that of the Empire.
Distrusting the Colleges' motives at the low end, perhaps leading to things like not publishing further magical discoveries, keeping more secrets a la Qhaysh Juice and the
Liber Mortis. Could produce storylines about reforming the Colleges or even working against them.
[ ] Sylvanians will meekly accept any tyrant, to the point of complicity in their actions.
Hatred: Sylvanians, I see you hiding there. If we can avoid Eastern Stirland, this is going to be the easiest by far to mitigate the effects of.
[ ] I, personally, failed to protect Abelhelm.
Losing faith in herself. Very standard 'failed hero' narratives. Paths that are well-trodden, but can still be very emotional if written well.
[ ] Sigmar abandoned his most worthy follower in his hour of need.
Hey Wilhelmina, looks like there's going to be another Anti-Sigmarite in town! Kasmir's not going to be happy, but he already seems to be in a bit of a Crisis of Faith of his own, so he may not even notice.
[ ] You can't trust people to have your back.
Goodbye, Diplomacy score!
[ ] I will never meet a man as worthy as Abelhelm was.
Good riddance, shipping opportunities!
And just for good measure, some I
really don't want.
[ ] In the confusion of battle, even the greatest warrior can lose their life pointlessly.
This will definitely lead to Mathilde avoiding fights, which is so not her, and potentially lose us the Brave trait. That's important when our main enemy (undead) pretty much all have detrimental effects on morale. And it's been a good trait to have in other situations, too.
[ ] Magic is a curse; Magisters and rogue mages alike will eventually die in it's handling.
Mathilde is a wizard. Hating or fearing magic is just going to make it harder to get things done.
[ ] Gods will not help us.
Sure, Sigmar's power failed, but it's not really Ranald's thing to heal anyway and our main problem up until now has been the people, not the gods. The main problem with this option is that it seems likely to lead to us losing Ranald's Blessing, which has saved our butt many times over -- a very obvious example of the belief not being true.
[ ] The Empire is a morass of self-interest, to the point of becoming a millstone around the neck of humanity.
The Grey Order is the worst college to be a member of with this belief, since they're the most extreme in their requirements for loyalty to the Empire. Add to that Ranald's revolutionary tendencies, and this one leads Mathilde towards being declared rogue for betraying the state.