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Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition

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F0lkL0re said:
Well those first two pairs of dice rolls are concerning.
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Neither are likely deaths. The latter, considering it was for target #6, was probably a nod failure outright since they'll have a high bonus, possibly up to and including our bodyguards we hired.

Keep in mind, the difference between the winning and losing roll (after bonuses) is important to the details of the result, not just which one was higher. I forget the rule for deciding if an attempt actually kills rather than just injures, but from what I can recall it's actually a decently high bar to clear. Something like "the difference has to be greater than half the defending roll" or some such.
 
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Prime 2.0 said:
Neither are likely deaths. The latter, considering it was for target #6, was probably a nod failure outright since they'll have a high bonus, possibly up to and including our bodyguards we hired.

Keep in mind, the difference between the winning and losing roll (after bonuses) is important to the details of the result, not just which one was higher. I forget the rule for where an attempt actually kills rather than just injured, but it's actually a decently high bar to clear.
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Nod's result must be double that of target('s protection detail) after modifiers.

aledeth said:
I'd be sceptical that the first roll is a failure. It's right before Nod's planned offensive, if they don't pull out all the stops and get extra assassin bonuses I'd be surprised.
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Nod would need a total greater than 120 after modifiers.

The third roll is at greater risk of getting buried because the minimum value Nod needs to breach is much closer to Nod's roll.
 
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Ah, we have finished the Ostinato. It is time for the rest of the composition. Let us see what wonderful music we make.

EDIT: Hm, and interesting melody.
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: First Battle Roll Total: 21
15 15 6 6
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Second Battle Roll Total: 138
48 48 90 90
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Third Battle Roll Total: 82
20 20 62 62
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Fourth Battle Roll Total: 69
68 68 1 1
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Fifth Battle Roll Total: 170
72 72 98 98
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Sixth Battle Roll Total: 109
20 20 89 89
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Seventh Battle Roll Total: 123
38 38 85 85
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Eighth Battle Roll Total: 174
89 89 85 85
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Ninth Battle Roll Total: 130
84 84 46 46
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Tenth Battle Roll Total: 63
61 61 2 2
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Eleventh Battle Roll Total: 156
87 87 69 69
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Twelth Battle Roll Total: 55
28 28 27 27
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Thirteenth Battle Roll Total: 78
57 57 21 21
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Fourteenth Battle Roll Total: 136
87 87 49 49
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Fifteenth Battle Roll Total: 73
16 16 57 57
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Sixteenth Battle Roll Total: 138
53 53 85 85
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Seventeenth Battle Roll Total: 96
16 16 80 80
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Eigteenth Battle Roll Total: 159
64 64 95 95
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Nineteenth Battle Roll Total: 90
8 8 82 82
KnightDisciple threw 2 100-faced dice. Reason: Twentieth Battle Roll Total: 172
97 97 75 75
 
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Prime 2.0 said:
Neither are likely deaths. The latter, considering it was for target #6, was probably a nod failure outright since they'll have a high bonus, possibly up to and including our bodyguards we hired.

Keep in mind, the difference between the winning and losing roll (after bonuses) is important to the details of the result, not just which one was higher. I forget the rule for where an attempt actually kills rather than just injured, but from what I can recall it's actually a decently high bar to clear. Something like "the difference has to be greater than half the defending roll" or some such.
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Very much this.
The bodyguards option we chose gave a +5 modifier, and after people were asking why the modifier was so low, ithillid told that there are multiple tiers of success/failure, and the +5 adds to every one. So just a marginally higher NOD roll will not result in death, especially not if someone from treasury is targeted, thanks to said bodyguards.
 
Khop said:
Uh, that's not really a good way to look at it.
Both are 20 RpD and liquid tib is 140 progress for +8 vs CCF 300 progress for +16. So the lower progress cost is better beucase you get the power payout sooner and it's ever so slightly more efficient.
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Factor in the -5 PS if that is for every stage as well though and that adds up.

Also those rolls were GDI then NOD for battles right? because it looks like both sides got some licks in, depends on modifiers in the end

Derpmind said:
I hope that 4th battle roll, 68 vs 1 was Gideon. :grin:
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I want that to be against the best NOD commander to weaken them
 
If it goes GDI 1st then NOD, then we likely lost something like half of the 20 battles rolled above. Dice bonuses might save some of them but most have very wide gaps.
 
Void Stalker said:
And liquid tiberium is half the power of fusion.
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This is not correct.
The cost per die is the same, 20 resources, but liquid tiberium is 140 progress for +8 energy, while fusion is 300 progress for +16 energy, so 17,5 progress for 1 energy for liquid tiberium and 18,75 progress per 1 energy for fusion, making liquid tiberium more efficient.
Moreover our modifier for tiberium dice is +39 and for heavy industry only +29, making tiberium energy even further efficient.

Edit:
while -5 PS is not ideal to say the least, we have a lot of PS, and if we build the power plants without problems I fully expect this cost to go away, like it happened for tiberium sea platforms, for example.
 
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Right so:
favored pre modifiers:
GDI-
1st 15 v 6
4th 68 v 1
8th 89 v 85
9th 84 v 46
10th 61 v 2
11th 87 v 69
12th 28 v 27
13th 57 v 21
14th 87 v 49
20th 97 v 75
10 total (2 of which are nearly a tie)

NOD
2nd 48 v 90
3rd 20 v 62
5th 72 v 98
6th 20 v 89
7th 38 v 85
15th 16 v 57
16th 53 v 85
17th 16 v 80
18th 64 v 95
19th 8 v 82
10 total (0 of which are nearly a tie)

Edit-
GDI had a total of 1028, NOD had a total of 1,204. Avg results would be 1,010.

Added in a table in the spoiler for people that want to pull it to play around with the data
GDINODDif
1569
4890-42
2062-42
68167
7298-26
2089-69
3885-47
89854
844638
61259
876918
28271
572136
874938
1657-41
5385-32
1680-64
6495-31
882-74
977522
10281204-176
 
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Ok, the results are interesting.

We have 10 battles in favor of NOD and 10 in favor of GDI before modifiers, on the other hand we have two basically ties on GDI side and two basically massacres as well, 68 vs 1 and 61 vs 2.

On NOD side we do have 8 vs 82 and 16 vs 80 though, and no ties…
 
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So a 50/50 split before modifiers. Not too bad from first glance. Hopefully we'll have enough bonuses from striking with good intel and super built up ground forces to turn the defeats into close fought things and the victories into absolute slaughters. Also, hopefully the 1 is krukov's pet project because that'd be funny as hell.
 
Most of the NOD victories are probably gonna stay NOD victories even with modifiers. Even the smallest gap in the NOD-favored roll-offs are something like the mid 20s, and most of the gaps are far larger.

Still, 50/50 in a head to head collision that we were expecting is probably something we can afford.
 
Chimeraguard said:
Most of the NOD victories are probably gonna stay NOD victories even with modifiers. Even the smallest gap in the NOD-favored roll-offs are something like the mid 20s, and most of the gaps are far larger.

Still, 50/50 in a head to head collision that we were expecting is probably something we can afford.
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26 is the smallest of the margins favoring NOD so yeah not turning any NOD victories into anything else. And with 176 favoring to NOD overall we need some major modifiers, though the Nat 1 by NOD might help. Hopefully GDI has net positive on modifiers to claw part of that back.

Biggest Margins:
19th 8 v 82 NOD by 74
6th 20 v 89 NOD by 69
4th 68 v 1 GDI by 67
17th 16 V 80 NOD by 64
10th 61 v 2 GDI by 59
7th 38 v 85 NOD by 47
2nd 48 v 90 NOD by 42
3rd 20 v 62 NOD by 42
15th 16 v 57 NOD by 41
 
Preliminary Four Year Plan Required Dice as of the start of Q2 2060.
Infrastructure Projects
Infrastructure still requires the completion of one more phase of Arcologies and four phases of Karachi.

Required Projects:
-Complete at least one more phase of Blue Zone Arcologies: 1/650 Progress ~8 dice median
--Requires 2 Energy
--Provides 4 Consumer Goods towards goal

-Complete at least four phases of Karachi Planned City: 0/975 Progress ~11 dice median (Can use Tib dice)
--Requires 10 Labor
--Provides 12 Logistics

Semi Required Projects:
-None

Infrastructure Total = 19 dice
42 Infrastructure dice for the rest of the Plan, 23 dice available, no free dice required.
Heavy Industry Projects
Heavy Industry does not have anything that is explicitly required by the Plan, however, the most progress efficient way to provide sufficient Capital Goods for the Plan Goal is via the Nuuk Heavy Robotics Foundry. It is possible to achieve the Capital Goods Plan Goal with a combination of other less Energy expensive options, in particular North Boston Phase 5. However Nuuk is more efficient at producing the desired Capital Goods. Nuuk will require a significant expenditure of Energy, additionally the Military factories in the Plan will require a phase of Fusion Plants all on their own.

Required Projects:
-None

Semi Required Projects:
-Nuuk Heavy Robotics Foundry Phase 3-4 118/1920 Progress, ~23 dice median
--Requires 4 Labor
--Requires 16 Energy
--Provides 48 Capital Goods

-North Boston Chip Fabricator Phase 5 36/2400 Progress, ~30 dice median
--Requires 2 Labor
--Requires 8 Energy
--Provides 32 Capital Goods
--AI development benefits

-Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant Phase 5-6: 232/600 Progress, ~5 dice median
--Provides 32 Energy
--Text states the second generation design will be out in 1-2 years.
--Note: If North Boston is completed only one phase of Fusion Plants is required ~1 die median

Note: North Boston 7 dice more expensive than Nuuk, however it save 4 dice in Fusion plants for a net of 3 dice more expensive than Nuuk, and as such it will not be considered in the general required dice analysis. However, I have included it above in the event it is taken anyway for the AI development benefits.

Total Heavy Industry = 28 dice
35 Heavy Industry dice for the rest of the Plan, 7 dice available, 0 free dice required
Agricultural Projects
Agriculture requires the deployment of Wadmalaw Kudzu and the increase of Food Reserve by 18 points.

Required Projects:
-Complete one more phase of Wadmalaw Kudzu Plantations: 3/300 Progress ~4 dice median
--Provides 4 Consumer Goods

-Food: 18 additional points in reserve:
--Strategic Food Stockpile Construction Phase 2-6: 38/925 Progress ~12 dice median
---Requires 20 Food
---Provides 10 Food in reserve
---Note: Assumes Phase 4 is repeatable at 200 Progress
--Extra Large Food Stockpiles: 1 die 100%
---Requires 16 Food
---Provides 8 Food in reserve

Semi Required Projects:
-Freeze Dried Food Plants: 73/200 ~2 dice median (Increases efficiency of Strategic Food Stockpile Construction and Extra Large Food Stockpiles)
--Requires 1 Energy
--Currently Provides 5 Food
--Note: Currently we have 20 Food and will be getting 4 more from Perennials minimum before the end of the plan. This means we will have 24 Food min by the end of the plan. If we committed to producing an additional 12 Food we would not require Freeze Dried Food Plants. However, if we completed Freeze Dried Food Plants we would receive an additional 5 Food for a total of 29 Food, and we would require less Food for the stockpiles. If the Food provided by Freeze Dried Food Plants is the Food freed up by more efficient stockpiling, then it follows that the required Food per Food Reserve changes from 2 Food per Food Reserved to 1.5 Food per Food Reserved. This means we would require 27 Food for the remaining 18 Food Reserve.

Note: This analysis will continue with the understanding that Freeze Dried Food Plants will be completed for minimal dice as this requires 2 dice, not completing Freeze Dried Food Plants would require 4 dice (assuming the use of Blue Zone Aquaponics).

Agricultural Total = 18
28 Agricultural Dice for the rest of the Plan, 10 dice available, no free dice required.
Tiberium Projects
It is required that Tiberium dice be expended for the Income and Abatement goals. Tiberium is also the source of the most efficient means of achieving our Processing goal, Tiberium Processing Plants. It is technically possible to achieve the processing goal by completing the Chicago Planned City, or by completing Phase 4 of the same along with Tiberium Processing Refits. However, the later is 5 times as much progress as the Tiberium Processing Plants, while the former is 8 times as much. Still because it's possible, Tiberium Processing Plants is technically only Semi Required.

Required Projects:
-Income and Abatement: we would want some combination of various Tiberium Harvesting/Containment projects as they give both, we will meet those two goals as even if we pursue either the more Income or the more Abatement focused options exclusively. With 50 additional RpT (135 target minus that gained from Lunar Mines and 15 RpT arriving in Q3 2060) and 14 Mitigation (17 current, 3 arriving in Q3 2060) required, either path would cost ~14 dice median to complete both targets, less if we followed a more balanced strategy.

Semi Required Projects:
-Processing: 280 points
--Tiberium Processing Plants: 20/200 Progress ~2 dice median
---Requires 4 Energy
---Requires 3 Logistics
---Provides 600 Processing

Tiberium Total = 16
49 Tiberium Dice for the rest of the Plan, 33 dice available, no free dice required.
Orbital Projects
Orbital requires completion of Enterprise and 5 lunar mines.

-Complete GDSS Enterprise: 456/2300 Progress ~23 dice median
--Provides 1844 Progress to Station Goal
--Provides 4 Capital Goods
--Provides 4 Consumer Goods

-Stations: 1454 Points
--Enterprise provides 1844, no further station investment is required

-Complete at least five more phases of Space Mines:
--2 Rare Metals Mines and 3 Lunar Regolith Harvesting: 0/325 Progress ~4 dice median, 50/1020 Progress ~13 dice
---Requires 2 Rare Metal Nodes
---Provides +10 RpT and +6 Light Metals (45 RpT with Processing)
--2 Rare Metals Mines and 3 Heavy Metals Mines: 0/325 Progress ~4 dice median, 145/1125 Progress ~13 dice
---Requires 2 Rare Metal Nodes
---Provides +10 RpT and +6 Heavy Metals (60 RpT with Processing)
---Thanks to lucky rolls both methods are roughly the same cost (Regolith is 10 Progress Cheeper). This analysis will be using the Heavy Metals Mine Strategy for planning.

Semi Required Projects:
-None

Orbital Total = 40
42 Orbital Dice for the rest of the Plan, 2 available, no free dice required.
Military Projects
Military requires multiple single die projects to complete along with a few more extensive projects such as OSRCT.

Required Projects:
-Complete ASAT Phase 4: 36/220 Progress ~2 dice median
-General Military Total = 2 dice

Space Force
-Complete OSRCT Phase 3-4: 5/690 Progress ~9 dice median
-Space Force Total = 9 dice

Ground Forces
-Complete one more phase of URLS production: 0/200 Progress ~3 dice median
--Requires 2 Energy
-Complete one more phase of Shell Plants: 7/150 Progress ~2 dice median
--Requires 1 Energy
-Railgun Munitions Development: 0/60 Progress 1 die 87%
-Complete one more phase of Ablative Armor: 54/200 Progress ~2 dice median
-Ground Forces Total = 8 dice

Steel Talons
-Develop Mastodon: 0/30 Development 1 die 100%
-Deploy Mastodon: ??? Not Yet Developed (Going by Havoc Deployment, will cost ~3 dice median)
--Going by Havoc Deployment will require 4 Energy
-Steel Talons Total = 4 dice

Semi Required Projects:
-None

Military Total = 23 dice
56 Military dice for the rest of the Plan, 33 dice available, no free dice required.
Economic Targets/Factors
-Energy: 9 current, 4 in reserve
--2 used by Blue Zone Arcologies
--1 used by Freeze Dried Food Plants
--4 used by Tiberium Processing Plants
--16 used by Nuuk heavy Robotics Foundry for Capital Goods Goal
--2 used by ULRS
--1 used by Shell Plants
--4 used by Mastodon Deployment
--Total Required: 38
--32 provided by Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants Phase 5-6, see Heavy industry Projects
--Net 11
--Note that only one set of Fusion would be required if 5 Energy could be generated elsewhere, or if North Boston is taken instead of Nuuk

-Logistics:‌ 29
--12 provided by Karachi
--3 used by Tiberium Processing Plants
--Net 38
--Note this is enough for 7 Glacier Mines aka +280 RpT min

-Food:‌ 20, 10 in reserve, 18 additional reserve required
--See Agricultural Projects

-Capital Goods: Current 17, must produce 35 for plan (20 in Reserve)
--4 provided by Enterprise
--48 provided by Nuuk Heavy Robotics Foundry Phase 3-4, see Heavy Industry Projects
---Note this could be replaced by North Boston Phase 5 which would provide 32 Capital Goods, see Heavy Industry Project for details
--Net 59

-Consumer Goods: 26 current, must produce (18) for plan
--Blue Zone Arcologies provides 4
--Wadmalaw Kudzu Plantations provides 4
--Perennials will provide 8
--Enterprise provides 4
--Total Provided: 20
--Additional Consumer Goods investment is not required

-Labor: 39, +5 per turn
--10 used by Karachi
--7 used by Nuuk Heavy Robotics Foundry
--1 used by Blue Zone Aquaponics
--Unknown when Labor gains from prosthetics will expire (Currently +5 per turn)
--Net 26+

-Income: 135 Points
--Lunar Mines provides 10 RpT min, 70 RpT with Enterprise processing
--15 RpT arriving in Q3 2060
--Tiberium
--Net 50 RpT required

-Abatement: 17 Points
--3 points will arrive in Q3 2060
--Tiberium
--Net 14 Points required

I've summarized the Economic Targets here as there are multiple ways to achieve them. I've noted the synergies between the Plan Goals as well. I've also placed them in the sections I feel they are most applicable.
Dice Required Summary
Infrastructure: 42 Total, 19 Required, 23 Available
Heavy Industry: 35 Total, 28 Required, 7 Available
Light and Chemical Industry: 35 Total, 0 Required, 35 Available
Agriculture: 28 Total, 18 Required, 10 Available
Tiberium: 49 Total, 16 Required, 33 Available
Orbital: 42 Total, 40 Required, 2 Available
Services: 35 Total, 0 Required, 35 Available
Military: 56 Total, 23 Required, 33 Available
Free: 49 Total, 0 Required, 49 Available
Notes:
-All dice estimates are calculated based on the present respective die bonus.
-The total dice numbers at the bottom of each section are the dice requirements for the Required and Semi Required Projects combined.
-Required Projects are those that must be completed for the Plan.
-Semi Required Projects are those that should be completed, but are not technically mandatory for the completion of the Plan. These projects provide efficient methods to achieve the economic targets or otherwise reduce/mitigate the economic costs of the other required and semi required projects.

Any questions/comments are welcome.
 
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