Huh. Missed in all the text.
Now it's 1 to 1 for on-screen success/failure.
Also, Operation Dawn Star. (The campaign in China at the same time as the Tacitus raid on Cheyenne Mountain, where most of the Marked of Kane cyborgs were wiped out.)
In the predawn light of the First, armored infantry clattered through the night, moving towards jump off positions forward of the entrenchments that had lined the battlefields. At 0630, the first wave of fire lit off the attacks, with masses of both fixed and mobile artillery tearing the night open in blasts of smoke and flame towards pre registered targets. At the same time, a rolling barrage of Ion cannon strikes pummeled the Brotherhood's front lines, wiping out strongpoints and punching holes that armored and infantry columns raced through, encircling NOD defenders too slow or too shell shocked to get away. In the air, holes opened in NOD's air defense system allowed Firehawks and Orcas to stream into the battlespace, hunting fleeing remnants and striking deep into the rear lines.
 
Since Rakuhn got us Isolinear Computing which gives a bonus to AI stuff should we hold back on Prototype General Artificial Intelligence until we have Isolinear Computing rolled out?
 
We'll almost certainly have to do several stages of (expensive) factory-building before we have any useful amount of Isolinear computing media. (The equivalent of chips.)

So, unless we get that project immediately, probably not worth waiting. The existing chips we have are workable, just... not as good.
 
So I know we've been lucky against NOD in our battles so far, but if we hadn't rolled well, it's possible these battles this turn could have had some nasty effects.

First, Gideon's target wasn't just the MARV hub, but also the glacier mine behind it. (And perhaps even the RZ harvesting operations in the area, too.) If the attack had succeeded, then instead of going up 25 RpT and 3 RZ mitigation with the MARV fleet's completion, we would have gone down 40-60 RpT. This would have been, in some sense, an economically recoverable loss, even if we had lost access to that territory. But it would have also given a major propaganda victory to perhaps the most propaganda-focused warlord, who would have been able to milk it for all it would be worth.

But perhaps the real threat this turn came from Stahl. Puerto Madryn contains a pre-Third War industrial park that, reportedly, produces 5 Capital Goods. If we had lost it, given we only have a +3 Capital Goods surplus currently, we would have gone back into the red on Capital Goods production. And since a major part of the early game was avoiding a Capital Goods collapse, I'd expect the penalties from even a single quarter with a lack of CG to be severe. Moreover, we would be unable to do the Wartime Factory Refits in time for the Karachi Sprint, and possibly even longer.

But none of that happened, thankfully. IIRC our worst loss against NOD in the quest so far was the assassination of Dr. Joseph Takeda... oh, right, and we lost the Tacitus. Woulda been nice to have that tech gacha, rather than hoping Kane shares it with us.
 
Honestly I think it's Kane needing GDI slowed down and burning the Brotherhood to achieve that. Every die and Resource we spend on tanks to deal with his mooks is one less we have to spend on snowballing our economy harder, or Tib abatement, or space evacuation, or whatever else. The Brotherhood is losing more than the GDI is, but we're still being noticeably slowed down when they keep swinging at us. The Brotherhood is rapidly being spent and is in the weakest strategic position they've been in.... ever? They really shouldn't be attacking us and should go underground to lick their wounds instead, but Kane needs them attacking us as a distraction or else we snowball so hard that we're strong enough to tell him to get fucked and his master plan is ruined.

The Brotherhood's always just been an asset to spend in service of his larger goals, and when his plans call for a strong Brotherhood then he's fine shepherding a strong Brotherhood. But if his plans call for using the Brotherhood's corpses as speedbumps to slow down the GDI then he'll do that too. If Kane says it's time to go fetch some skulls, then everyone's got to go fetch some skulls even if it doesn't make a lot of strategic sense for them personally. Kane doesn't care if Stahl or Krukov or Gideon come out holding the short straw, he just needs GDI slowed down and burning some assets now to do that is worth more to him than saving those assets for use later.
Thing is, Kane holds the Threshold Tower and the Tacitus. And he has LEGION as well in his corner.
If he wants to slow us down, he'd be drip feeding them at least some choice portions of technological intelligence to help them recover and improve their economic and combat effectiveness vis a vis GDI.

That leads me to believe this is not Kane's instigation. If it was Kane we'd be getting rocked a lot harder.

So I know we've been lucky against NOD in our battles so far, but if we hadn't rolled well, it's possible these battles this turn could have had some nasty effects.

First, Gideon's target wasn't just the MARV hub, but also the glacier mine behind it. (And perhaps even the RZ harvesting operations in the area, too.) If the attack had succeeded, then instead of going up 25 RpT and 3 RZ mitigation with the MARV fleet's completion, we would have gone down 40-60 RpT. This would have been, in some sense, an economically recoverable loss, even if we had lost access to that territory. But it would have also given a major propaganda victory to perhaps the most propaganda-focused warlord, who would have been able to milk it for all it would be worth.

But perhaps the real threat this turn came from Stahl. Puerto Madryn contains a pre-Third War industrial park that, reportedly, produces 5 Capital Goods. If we had lost it, given we only have a +3 Capital Goods surplus currently, we would have gone back into the red on Capital Goods production. And since a major part of the early game was avoiding a Capital Goods collapse, I'd expect the penalties from even a single quarter with a lack of CG to be severe. Moreover, we would be unable to do the Wartime Factory Refits in time for the Karachi Sprint, and possibly even longer.

But none of that happened, thankfully. IIRC our worst loss against NOD in the quest so far was the assassination of Dr. Joseph Takeda... oh, right, and we lost the Tacitus. Woulda been nice to have that tech gacha, rather than hoping Kane shares it with us.
Agreed about Gideon.

Not so sure about Stahl; bombardment at a distance does not have all that good a record against hardened infrastructure when you arent using PGMs. I would have expected that a successful Stahl missile attack would maybe cost us 50% of the production of that site, and only until we could make repairs.

My speculation, at least. Could be wrong.
 
Honestly, this seems weird.

Sure, we often see the lower ranks swarming in mass wave 'victory or death' attacks. And most of nods bottom tier and second tier stuff is intended to be cheap and replaceable. (buggies, bikes, scorpion tanks) But when not conducting global offensives they often use guerilla tactics. Stealth is one of their major tactical and strategic tools after all. That, and in the case of militants they often blend into/are recruited from civilian populations...

I've said it before and I'll say it here again now. Nod doesn't feel like Nod currently. They don't feel like smart, cunning enemies, and they don't feel like the de-facto government for huge chunks of the planet. They feel like orcs. Attacking out of blind hatred and a need for 'Waagh!' But with little overarching strategy or objective.
I think you are grossly underestimating the proportion of their strength that they're committing to these attacks.

These guys do have a lot of resources. They have a tiberium economy, like we do, or rather, one that runs more efficiently than ours because Nod knows more about tiberium than we do and is willing to use unsafe methods we reject. But unlike us, they aren't pressured into spending vast amounts of resources on arcologies for the masses or giant space stations or whatever. Now sure, they have less actual industry than we do- but they also are in a better position to concentrate what they have on building up a war machine.

I'm sure Stahl doesn't like it when he loses a Redeemer. But we deploy MARVs by the dozens; I'm pretty sure Stahl has at least a double digit number of Redeemers and can replace a lost one within months- broadly the same time scale it'll take us to patch up the armored division Stahl tore up during his counterattack against our forces.

...

Also, one point I feel like your longpost misses is that these guys are committed to the capacity and intention to wage war with GDI. As such, it is necessary for them to at least occasionally test their forces in battle against GDI. If nothing else, they need the opportunity to learn from failure by devising better weapon systems to counter whatever was defeating them before. Notice that probably unlike Krukov, Stahl managed to recover much of his force, and we don't know what total fraction of his forces he actually used...

So for them to expend forces they could conceivably hoard makes sense, because otherwise they don't know how their forces will perform against us. We're constantly deploying new weapons and increasing the availability of old ones, so if any of the warlords go more than a few years without a big push against us, they're likely to be caught by surprise facing our capabilities.

Stahl and Gideon are the prime examples, but also Krukov is partly guilty of this. They're launching major attacks against GDI population centres/strategic locations in the case of our marv hubs. But, those attacks failing, leaves them weakened and makes them look bad. Sure there's the politicking of *attacked GDI Damaged X* But it's rarely meaningfully increasing the warlords own power, indeed, especially in the case of Stahl and Gideon the opposite seems to be happening as they lose soldiers and expensive gear to mixed results at best. In some cases the higher warlords are removing ambitious underlings by sending them at GDI, but this kind of implies that at least in some cases they're hedging their bets against the likelihood of the forces in question being destroyed or heavily weakened.
I think it likely that for Stahl, the forces actually expended were a small enough fraction of his forces that sacrificing them for tactical data and an opportunity to (if successful) materially weaken GDI positions in southern South America could be worth it. Again, these guys can replenish their forces, and when given years to rebuild between campaigns, it's safe to assume that they have done so.

Your allegation that Stahl is "constantly" attacking is just nonsense; Stahl himself hasn't pushed a single major offensive against us until this one. Remember, we've been told it's likely that his subordinates insisted on the attack on the MARV hub. Even then, that's only two attacks in several years. For a guy who controls much of the resources of a continent, two corps-level offensives in multiple years of low-level warfare is nothing.

About the only warlord who's really overextended themselves and has probably taken more losses than they can easily afford is Giddyboy, and he's noted as being the least competent of them all as a strategist.

...

And as for your alternative suggestion for Stahl, of attacking GDI harvesters and patrols more intensively? That if anything makes things worse for him against tiberium because it means GDI isn't doing as much to hoover up tiberium in the Yellow Zone or hold back the encroaching Red Zone. And it doesn't leave him prepared to know what to expect if Kane shows up and orders a pitched battle, which past Nod experience strongly suggests he'll do some time in the next ten years or so.

Just keep smashing your skull against the brick wall Stahl and maybe he'll break through? With Bintangs success I'd expect him to spec into an airforce/navy in order to disrupt GDI shipping/trade to and from the south american blue zone. They export loads of processed tib/raw materials and import stuff they need. If he built up a local navy he could perhaps quickly gain local superiority and if he was able to cut or disrupt shipping in the atlantic region between west africa and South america he could possibly hurt GDI badly. Bombers, subs, small missile boats, larger battleships etc. Whatever. Point being, Nod/Bintang Navy recently chased GDI out of their region in a big way. I'd expect Stahl and others to focus on negating GDI's advantage in logistics. The fact Stahl is ignoring that in favour of armoured warfare...
Who says so?

For all you know, the submarines that launched the Manchester attack were Stahl's. It's not like they carried around ID and told us who was operating them, and the submarine attack would be just as consistent with Stahl's methods (launch a low-profile attack with cruise missiles against enemy industrial complexes) as Bintang's (use bote). And it's a lot closer to Stahl's backyard, much easier for a submarine to get to without overstraining its operational range.

Honestly, I feel like you're starting from some very narrow assumptions about what Nod 'should' do and also what they 'do' do, and why they should and do do it... and then assuming they're stupid because of contradictions that exist mainly in your imagination.

Even Stahl lost a Redeemer, we can probably build entire Predator battalions in the time it takes a warlord to replace something as high end a redeemer.
Yeah, but on the other hand, Stahl took out entire Predator battalions with that Redeemer; the 13th Division was pretty well chewed up. By the time it's ready to fight again, I bet Stahl has a new Redeemer.
 
I think you are grossly underestimating the proportion of their strength that they're committing to these attacks.

These guys do have a lot of resources. They have a tiberium economy, like we do, or rather, one that runs more efficiently than ours because Nod knows more about tiberium than we do and is willing to use unsafe methods we reject. But unlike us, they aren't pressured into spending vast amounts of resources on arcologies for the masses or giant space stations or whatever. Now sure, they have less actual industry than we do- but they also are in a better position to concentrate what they have on building up a war machine.

I'm sure Stahl doesn't like it when he loses a Redeemer. But we deploy MARVs by the dozens; I'm pretty sure Stahl has at least a double digit number of Redeemers and can replace a lost one within months- broadly the same time scale it'll take us to patch up the armored division Stahl tore up during his counterattack against our forces.

...

Also, one point I feel like your longpost misses is that these guys are committed to the capacity and intention to wage war with GDI. As such, it is necessary for them to at least occasionally test their forces in battle against GDI. If nothing else, they need the opportunity to learn from failure by devising better weapon systems to counter whatever was defeating them before. Notice that probably unlike Krukov, Stahl managed to recover much of his force, and we don't know what total fraction of his forces he actually used...

So for them to expend forces they could conceivably hoard makes sense, because otherwise they don't know how their forces will perform against us. We're constantly deploying new weapons and increasing the availability of old ones, so if any of the warlords go more than a few years without a big push against us, they're likely to be caught by surprise facing our capabilities.

I think it likely that for Stahl, the forces actually expended were a small enough fraction of his forces that sacrificing them for tactical data and an opportunity to (if successful) materially weaken GDI positions in southern South America could be worth it. Again, these guys can replenish their forces, and when given years to rebuild between campaigns, it's safe to assume that they have done so.

Your allegation that Stahl is "constantly" attacking is just nonsense; Stahl himself hasn't pushed a single major offensive against us until this one. Remember, we've been told it's likely that his subordinates insisted on the attack on the MARV hub. Even then, that's only two attacks in several years. For a guy who controls much of the resources of a continent, two corps-level offensives in multiple years of low-level warfare is nothing.

About the only warlord who's really overextended themselves and has probably taken more losses than they can easily afford is Giddyboy, and he's noted as being the least competent of them all as a strategist.

...

And as for your alternative suggestion for Stahl, of attacking GDI harvesters and patrols more intensively? That if anything makes things worse for him against tiberium because it means GDI isn't doing as much to hoover up tiberium in the Yellow Zone or hold back the encroaching Red Zone. And it doesn't leave him prepared to know what to expect if Kane shows up and orders a pitched battle, which past Nod experience strongly suggests he'll do some time in the next ten years or so.

Who says so?

For all you know, the submarines that launched the Manchester attack were Stahl's. It's not like they carried around ID and told us who was operating them, and the submarine attack would be just as consistent with Stahl's methods (launch a low-profile attack with cruise missiles against enemy industrial complexes) as Bintang's (use bote). And it's a lot closer to Stahl's backyard, much easier for a submarine to get to without overstraining its operational range.

Honestly, I feel like you're starting from some very narrow assumptions about what Nod 'should' do and also what they 'do' do, and why they should and do do it... and then assuming they're stupid because of contradictions that exist mainly in your imagination.

Yeah, but on the other hand, Stahl took out entire Predator battalions with that Redeemer; the 13th Division was pretty well chewed up. By the time it's ready to fight again, I bet Stahl has a new Redeemer.
There is also the pragmatics of you can't really get experienced veterans/units without fighting the enemy and considering most of nods situations feed the men well or even the bare minimal sometimes?
 
Has Ion Cannons ever been used successfully during the quest?
Big Stick of Doom was ether absent or useless during every battle.
I suspect this has to do with two main factors.
1: Nod knows we have Ion Cannons, so they'll only undertake major operations if they can mitigate their risk somehow.
2: Instances in which the ion cannons are used successfully tend to be resolved by the use of said ion cannon, and thus don't rise to the treasury's attention.
 
I suspect this has to do with two main factors.
1: Nod knows we have Ion Cannons, so they'll only undertake major operations if they can mitigate their risk somehow.
2: Instances in which the ion cannons are used successfully tend to be resolved by the use of said ion cannon, and thus don't rise to the treasury's attention.
Moreover, I think Ithillid/the military would warn us if the ion cannon became unusable in general, as that state of affairs would be alarming enough to be worthy of comment.

As is, we do know that NOD has some ion disrupters on hand, but it hasn't been rolled out in "every regiment has a disrupter truck" numbers yet.
 
So we can currently only expect ion disruptors for NOD fleets (with battleships or battleship sized ships)
Also, the radius of effect of ion disruptors doesn't seem to be large enough for a single unit to cover an entire naval fleet, so only capital ships are reasonably likely to be covered.

This is probably why Nod even bothers building capital ships in the first place, mind you.
 
I think you are grossly underestimating the proportion of their strength that they're committing to these attacks.

These guys do have a lot of resources. They have a tiberium economy, like we do, or rather, one that runs more efficiently than ours because Nod knows more about tiberium than we do and is willing to use unsafe methods we reject. But unlike us, they aren't pressured into spending vast amounts of resources on arcologies for the masses or giant space stations or whatever. Now sure, they have less actual industry than we do- but they also are in a better position to concentrate what they have on building up a war machine.

I'm sure Stahl doesn't like it when he loses a Redeemer. But we deploy MARVs by the dozens; I'm pretty sure Stahl has at least a double digit number of Redeemers and can replace a lost one within months- broadly the same time scale it'll take us to patch up the armored division Stahl tore up during his counterattack against our forces.

...

Also, one point I feel like your longpost misses is that these guys are committed to the capacity and intention to wage war with GDI. As such, it is necessary for them to at least occasionally test their forces in battle against GDI. If nothing else, they need the opportunity to learn from failure by devising better weapon systems to counter whatever was defeating them before. Notice that probably unlike Krukov, Stahl managed to recover much of his force, and we don't know what total fraction of his forces he actually used...

So for them to expend forces they could conceivably hoard makes sense, because otherwise they don't know how their forces will perform against us. We're constantly deploying new weapons and increasing the availability of old ones, so if any of the warlords go more than a few years without a big push against us, they're likely to be caught by surprise facing our capabilities.

I think it likely that for Stahl, the forces actually expended were a small enough fraction of his forces that sacrificing them for tactical data and an opportunity to (if successful) materially weaken GDI positions in southern South America could be worth it. Again, these guys can replenish their forces, and when given years to rebuild between campaigns, it's safe to assume that they have done so.

Your allegation that Stahl is "constantly" attacking is just nonsense; Stahl himself hasn't pushed a single major offensive against us until this one. Remember, we've been told it's likely that his subordinates insisted on the attack on the MARV hub. Even then, that's only two attacks in several years. For a guy who controls much of the resources of a continent, two corps-level offensives in multiple years of low-level warfare is nothing.

About the only warlord who's really overextended themselves and has probably taken more losses than they can easily afford is Giddyboy, and he's noted as being the least competent of them all as a strategist.

...

And as for your alternative suggestion for Stahl, of attacking GDI harvesters and patrols more intensively? That if anything makes things worse for him against tiberium because it means GDI isn't doing as much to hoover up tiberium in the Yellow Zone or hold back the encroaching Red Zone. And it doesn't leave him prepared to know what to expect if Kane shows up and orders a pitched battle, which past Nod experience strongly suggests he'll do some time in the next ten years or so.

Who says so?

For all you know, the submarines that launched the Manchester attack were Stahl's. It's not like they carried around ID and told us who was operating them, and the submarine attack would be just as consistent with Stahl's methods (launch a low-profile attack with cruise missiles against enemy industrial complexes) as Bintang's (use bote). And it's a lot closer to Stahl's backyard, much easier for a submarine to get to without overstraining its operational range.

Honestly, I feel like you're starting from some very narrow assumptions about what Nod 'should' do and also what they 'do' do, and why they should and do do it... and then assuming they're stupid because of contradictions that exist mainly in your imagination.

Yeah, but on the other hand, Stahl took out entire Predator battalions with that Redeemer; the 13th Division was pretty well chewed up. By the time it's ready to fight again, I bet Stahl has a new Redeemer.

I think Stahl did quite well. He did significant damage to a GDI armored division, he retreated with his forces intact, and the failure of the cruise missile bombardment honestly wasn't a big deal.

I just don't think it matters. Stahl won an impressive tactical victory that showcased his military ability as a commander, and nothing changed. GDI will probably reinforce South America, Stahl's troops will get a morale boost, and the overall situation will reset to "normal" soon enough.

Nod won a small battle in South America; they are losing the war. Every month sees more and more refugees traveling to Initiative territory, where they are welcomed and integrated into our growing economy. GDI is expanding, both in territory and population, while Nod has entirely failed to adapt to the new narrative. Talking about the "oppressors living in their Blue Zones" doesn't work on people when they have a cousin or a friend living in an apartment in a Green Zone.

Nod is failing as an insurgency because "glorious perpetual war against GDI" is less attractive than "move to my cousin's Green Zone apartment to crash on his couch". Transitioning to large conventional attacks is unlikely to work; both Krukov and Gideon were defeated in military terms, though Krukov did enough damage to spin it as a propaganda victory. An all-out Nod offensive is likely to result in an all-out Nod defeat; they lost all three of the Tiberium Wars to date, and our strategic position is only getting stronger with each passing month.

In narrative terms, having villains lose like this is rather unexciting, but I think our policy changes effectively won the war. We already had more industry and stronger conventional forces, and the decision to start actively recruiting Yellow Zone populations into Initiative territory robbed Nod of any hope of winning a long war.
 
In narrative terms, having villains lose like this is rather unexciting, but I think our policy changes effectively won the war. We already had more industry and stronger conventional forces, and the decision to start actively recruiting Yellow Zone populations into Initiative territory robbed Nod of any hope of winning a long war.
Can't help but feel this is counting our chickens before they hatch.

Yes, we're winning most of the tactical battles. Yes, we're pushed NOD into a losing strategic position.

But. All of our victories since the last push have been defensive victories. We've halted offensive operations almost altogether, in no small part due to the fact that NOD has pulled itself together in response to that push, and we're anticipating a coordinated world-wide counterattack basically any day now. We have no good answer to the Gana and particularly the Underminer, because the answer is 'Zone Armor for everyone' and we effectively forwent that in favor of quickly finishing Factory Refits for the Karachi Sprint.

Now, maybe we have, in fact, as Sun Tzu would say, won the war before we fought it--but we have not fought it yet, and it promises to be a very painful exercise even if we win.
 
There is a reason why Kane had to plan around GDI. He knew very well that he cannot win a conventional war against GDI's military forces. Even if he succeeded, GDI would make sure that he'd bleed every inch of ground for it.
 
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There is a reason why Kane had to plan around GDI. He knew very well that he cannot win a conventional war against GDI's military forces. Even if he succeeded, GDI would make sure that he'd bleed every inch for it.
At the some time, NOD is good enough at fighting GDI that Kane can usually get most of what he wants, and GDI gets browbeaten into isolationism even after they win.

It will not suffice to win this war by our continued survival--we must remain able and willing to engage with the world afterwards, otherwise NOD will just retrench themselves beyond the reach of our guns again. We must whip NOD so soundly that they can provide no resistance whatsoever to our continued expansion, recruitment, and assimilation of the remaining Yellow Zones.
 
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It bears remembering that canon Kane's plan (or at least, his post-TWII plan) didn't even involve permanently defeating GDI.

I'm sure he'd have been quite content with Nod somehow totally overrunning GDI and taking over the world in any of the three Tiberium Wars, mind you, but he's got a perfectly viable plan for achieving his own goals that doesn't really involve concerning himself with that.

Can't help but feel this is counting our chickens before they hatch.

Yes, we're winning most of the tactical battles. Yes, we're pushed NOD into a losing strategic position.

But. All of our victories since the last push have been defensive victories. We've halted offensive operations almost altogether, in no small part due to the fact that NOD has pulled itself together in response to that push, and we're anticipating a coordinated world-wide counterattack basically any day now. We have no good answer to the Gana and particularly the Underminer, because the answer is 'Zone Armor for everyone' and we effectively forwent that in favor of quickly finishing Factory Refits for the Karachi Sprint.
Nitpick:

I don't think the Karachi Sprint really competes with an aggressive Zone Armor rollout. The war factory refits do eat up the Capital Goods we could hypothetically use for a mass Zone Armor rollout, so there's a conflict there, but the war factory refits aren't directly required for the Karachi Sprint, and the Karachi Sprint itself doesn't actually need Free dice.

If we had the Capital Goods, we could do a major Zone Armor rollout and the Karachi Sprint at the same time, though it would leave us Resource-poor in other areas.
 
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Nitpick:

I don't think the Karachi Sprint really competes with an aggressive Zone Armor rollout. The war factory refits do eat up the Capital Goods we could hypothetically use for a mass Zone Armor rollout, so there's a conflict there, but the war factory refits aren't directly required for the Karachi Sprint, and the Karachi Sprint itself doesn't actually need Free dice.

If we had the Capital Goods, we could do a major Zone Armor rollout and the Karachi Sprint at the same time, though it would leave us Resource-poor in other areas.
It's not that the Sprint competes with Ground Force Zone Armor so much as Factory Refits conflicts with 'having Ground Force Zone Armor available for the Sprint'.

We're getting 8 CGs from Industrial Sectors, which if we wanted to we could spend on Zone Armor ahead of the Karachi Sprint instead of Refits. But, outside of meme plans, we've more or less earmarked those CGs for Factory Refits.

As is, while we could roll out one or two ZA factories during the Karachi Sprint, we will not have Ground Force Zone Armor for the Karachi Sprint.
 
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