Hard to say. She could be sitting it out to rebuild and everything, or just not have the forces. She's not likely to attack though. GDI is on high alert, so she'd be attacking forces likely ready for possible Nod incursions.
Especially since Nod love their decoys and ECM and ECCM.
Importantly, Bintang doesn't really have the right kind of forces to stop GDI from attacking Qinglian. She doesn't have divisions upon divisions of heavy combat ground troops that can be easily dropped off in Qinglian's territory to reinforce her from a land invasion. She could try to cut the links from Japan to Korea and Vladivostok, but that probably wouldn't go too well.
Yeah, well, I'm hoping that between now and 2063Q4, we can make that a high-maintenance relationship.
I was talking about the connection between Japan on the one hand, and GDI's continental East Asian holdings on the other.
Or the rolls are heavily in her favor.
I am looking forward to getting a bunch of dev and backlog factories pushed through once we finish off the navy yards and laser refit and plan goals.
| Project | Progress Target | Current Progress | Median Dice | RpD | Total Cost | Income | Income per Die | Income per R | Net R by End of Plan |
| Harvesting Tendril Deployment Phase 1 | 600 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 210 | 90 | 12.8571 | 0.4286 | 60 |
| Red Zone Border Offensives Phase 1 | 200 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 50 | 22.5 | 11.25 | 0.45 | 17.5 |
| Red Zone Border Offensives Phase 1-2 | 400 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 125 | 45 | 9 | 0.36 | 10 |
| Red Zone Border Offensives Phase 1-3 | 600 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 175 | 67.5 | 9.6429 | 0.3857 | 27.5 |
What do you think the items most important to have between now and Karachi are? Got a list? My list is:
The problem is, it's quite possible to indulge in a hair-brained military scheme where to succeed, you have to roll in the nineties and your enemy has to roll in the single digits. Ithillid generally doesn't have his commanders do that.
I mean, yeah, sure, but remember, her navy isn't really a match for "all of GDI," it's a match for "one of GDI's multiple large fleets." The problem is that we have to spread our forces all over the world, while she is operating in only one place- but we saw what happened when she fought a battle against us; she was able to inflict comparable losses on our surface fleets and her submarines heavily scarred Tokyo. And that was not her rolling badly.
By "required naval and Talon projects" do you mean stuff we've specifically promised to do during the current Plan, such as the carrier and Mastodon rollouts?
I'm going to be very unhappy if we don't get to Bergen Phase 3 by the end of the Plan, not least because of the potential for impact on fusion research and so on.
My own, admittedly a bit less mathematically rigorous, analysis had come to the same conclusions. I'll repost my own plan draft some time soon with this in mind.
Finishing the apartment Plan target isn't so urgent that it's worth spending Free dice on. We have plenty of time. If you want to push the railroad construction right now that is perfectly respectable, but it should probably be instead of, not along with the apartments.
I would like to argue in favor of doing Economic Census this turn in Bureaucracy, because we really do need those data and have needed them for a long time. I consider this a higher priority than security reviews, especially since we haven't got anything especially earth-shaking going on in Light Industry right now.
You've got your cost calculation for tendrils off; it's 30 R/die. Also, I strongly recommend focusing in on the tendril project, because if it's not completed this turn, then it starts being actively a drain on our discretionary budget for the year- that is, finishing it this year won't pay back the resources during this year. This is a bad thing because, as Doruma just pointed out, we have a lot of expensive projects.
I strongly recommend that we NOT do pinhole portals next turn. There's a LOT else to do, and it will be a LOT easier to find 100 R in the budget for portals AFTER we finish the tendril harvesters.
We don't need security reviews so urgently that we need to scattershot three of them, in any case. I suggest dropping the LCI review and focusing dice on Agriculture, since it's a fairly likely place for Nod sabotage to be impactful right now, so failure would be awkward.
Yes. I also include the last frigate shipyard in that category as while it is not required for the Plan, it is required for our trade and logistics networks continued well being.
I would be as well, but If I had to choose between Bergen Phase 3, Red Zone Border Offensives, Infernium Lasers, and Pinholes, I would regretfully drop Bergen Phase 3. I don't think that will be necessary with the cash infusion Harvesting Tendrils brings though. With your, or a similar, plan that prioritizes them that should give us an income of (1020+90+5+15=) 1130 RpT, enough for all 54 non bureaucracy dice (counting Erewhon) to be activated at 20 RpD with 50 R left over.
I disagree with 2 dice on Fortresses to ensure its completion, though I do understand the logic behind it. I'd prefer just one die there and risk the 70% chance to free up another die for Apartments or a second die on Toyko. Preferably the latter. As the progress requirement decreases by 60 every quarter the ideal scenario is we just barely get 60 below the DC as it will drop by that amount in the following turn. That means targeting 240 Progress this turn for it to autocomplete at the start of Q2, 180 Progress for Q3, and 120 for Q4.
Worst case the die on the Laser project can be moved to Fusion and have a 96% chance of +16 Energy if there is a serious concern over it. We shall see how the Laser project looks and what needs to be done to complete it.
No complaints on saving R here.
My gut instinct is to only put 7 dice on Harvesting Tendrils in Q1 to potentially save some R for something like Shuttles or research gatchas, and to put another die in Military, but I agree with the extra Free die on it to help ensure its completion. Especially if we decide to go for Phase 2 in Q2.
Wait a minute. Uhh, @Derpmind I believe there is an error in the current version of your Probability Array. I think you applied a minus 20 Progress modifier for the Regolith and Rare Lunar mines from the completion of Heavy Metal Phase 3 not the minus 10 Progress as was last observed with Phase 1. Given the previous turns Progress requirements for Rare Metal Mines Phase 1 and 2 were 160 and 145 respectively and Regolith Harvesting's Phase 2 was 330 and given the previous effects of Heavy Metals Mines Phase 1, I believe the new Progress requirements should be: 150, 135 and 320 respectively. Your array currently has them as 140, 125, and 310.
Hopefully the Security Lasers are an R cheap project, but we are not likely to activate all Services dice this turn.
The one die on Nagoya should be giving 73% chance not 54%.
Hopefully Erewhon'll be good at understanding the economy, lord knows it drives people mad.
Yes. Me too; the list of examples I gave was not intended to be exhaustive.
My own analysis, while again less rigorous, aligns with yours. If we push tendrils/Anadyr this turn, we should have little trouble funding one die on portals, one die on Anadyr, and at least a few Bergen dice next turn.
If we roll well enough that a second eight-die sprint can get us to the end of Harvesting Tendrils Phase 2 in a single turn, I'm going to be tentatively willing to do this in 2061Q2, even knowing that it won't pay for itself by the end of the Plan. However, the catch is that doing this would mean we use up much of the discretionary budget for Q2, which is problematic in its own right. In Q2 we will almost certainly need to roll another Anadyr die (our fourth), we will want to roll pinholes (because if we wait until Q3 to resume portal research, we have considerably more risk of 'needing' to roll two dice in Q4 to be sure the project completes, and that is stupidspensive).
I'm not clear on when Claws becomes available as a project, so I'm not currently planning for that.
Any Tiberium project we are likely to do in 2061 is righteous. Most options are lucrative and will provide income for the Initiative as a whole. Those that are not lucrative will be contributing to Red Zone abatement, which is important in its own right, or to future advances that will be very important.
All this is logical and reasonable. My concern is that I expect Nod's capacity for counterattacks to be globally, on average higher in 2061Q2 than in 'Q1. The longer we wait to complete this fortress phase, the greater the risk of military embarrassments. As it stands we may well take some embarrassments, but I'm worried about getting the fortresses actually done, especially since many of them are hundreds of kilometers forward of what was previously our main defense line.
My main point is just that we can make good solid progress towards our Plan commitments without having to throw four dice at "must complete fusion." This gives us considerably more wiggle room with Free dice.
There is a big, consequential difference between finishing and not finishing that phase.
Quite frankly, I have no idea what the cost reductions due to the lunar mine phases are. I am treating those probability numbers as rough approximations only. The point is to try to pick a lineup that gives us a low but plausible chance of completing each specific project, and put the rest of the dice on Enterprise. Good enough.
I know, and I don't like it, but I dislike a lot of the other things I could do to cut budget and fund those dice more.
Ah? Hm, you're right. I'll have to do some minor edits.
This is because in Q3 2060, after we finished Heavy Metals Phase 2 Ithillid forgot to discount the Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting and the Lunar Regolith Harvesting in the following Q4 2060 turn. Rare Metals should have already been at 0/150 and 0/135, and Regolith Harvesting should have been at 50/320. (I had them as such in the Array for that turn, but didn't notice the error until after the vote had ended.) With us finishing Heavy Metals Phase 3, the discounts will go down by 10 point again next turn, to where I have them in the Array now. I did confirm this with Ithillid on Discord, so it should be corrected for next turn.
Only difference I would have is moving the rifle into the first group of 6. Adv ECCM and Stealth Disruptors to try and reduce NOD stealth edge is a must. Also I would include the Apollo-A and factories which we should be getting soon since that puts lasers on the apollos and should help with the more armored NOD fighters we have seen.
Hmm I might need to do the Erewhon swap (move free dice to orbital and Erewhon down to census, pushes us hopefully ahead in orbital so we have more flex room). I do dislike not doing portals because 1 die a turn is affordable and means we can get it down without worrying about potential overkill (and with dice being that expensive not something we want).
In a very real way, our GDI is fundamentally a different state to the pre-TW3 GDI - pretty much none of our administrative population are the same people as before the last government got blown to bits, and most of the rest have lost vast amounts of money in the very near total economic collapse we suffered. Further, the admission of former NOD members en masse means that a very large fraction of our population is made up of our former enemies and people theoretically aligned with them, even if those people are probably even more heavily monitored by InOps than an American muslim in 2002. I don't think GDI could have ever been able to reform and realign as hard as we've had it without such radical changes in the population, ruling class, and the near collapse of the economy.
