I've been tweaking my draft. Most notably, I'm pivoting away from completing Nuuk 4 this Plan in favour of banging out the Anadyr Isolinear chip fab while we've still got the resources to do it - it's either now or we need to spend another 3 years building the budget back up. Trying to budget more than a single die per turn to it is hell, but with 5 dice over 5 turns at a minimum that gives us a 92 percent chance of completion - and if all else fails we can dump dice for an emergency infusion in Q4 2061. I've looked at the numbers and we don't actually need Nuuk 4 to meet our Cap Goods target - we're at 11 needed after this past turn's rolls (16 from Nuuk 3, 4 from Reyk 4), and we'll be getting 4 from Anadyr, 3 from Bergen 2-3 (easily doable), 2 from Enterprise 5, and I'm gonna be real unpopular and say we can whack out a couple phases of Spider Cotton for the last 2. By contrast, we need to take advantage of the opportunity to do Iso now while we have the means - any further development is almost certainly gated behind Anadyr.

Honestly the first phase of Spider Cotton is a decent source of Cap Goods, better than Reykjavik is. Even with the increasing cost, the latter phases are still better than Bergen at Cap Goods production. The use of Spider Cotton to reach our plan goals depends on how the renegotiations go and what our new agricultural requirements are, but at only 5 dice on average for Phases 1-2, we can probably fit it in. I personally think that Nuuk is the better way to go, 13 dice on average for Nuuk compared to 17 (4 Anadyr + 8 Bergen 1-3 + 5 Spider Cotton 1-2) for your proposal. Admittedly your proposal spreads the dice out away from Heavy Industry, but I don't think that's necessary as the HI Dice situation has been improving. We now have six spare HI dice if we go with Nuuk.

My real concern with your plan is the Energy situation since Fusion is not nigh guaranteed to complete, which means if the other projects do complete, we'd have a shortage.

15 Current - 2 Suzuka - 1 Chemical Fertilizer + 1 Bergen (Phase 1) - 1 Freeze Dried - 2 Porto - 2 AMA - 6 Firehawk - 5 Dubin - 6 Melbourne = -9 Energy.

Your plan does have a 74% chance of finishing Fusion, but there is too high of a possibility that we would have a severe energy shortage.
 
I think we've build so many railroads in the past year or two that we're probably close to what we need; a few dedicated rail spurs to connect up the tiberium mines are probably included in the opening cost of the project.

Your not looking at it from the strategic level. We had a certain number of actions we could take in railline expansion before the war started and we completed those. But now that we have gained all this territory we have unlocked all of these new rail line expansion actions. Notice they only came into being when our green zones butted up against the red zones? That was when we gained these 3 new actions. When three of our green zones made contact with their respective red zones.

To me it is crystal clear that we are going to need to complete a rail expansion for every new red zone farm we set up. At least for the cheap and highly effective income that we are hoping for. So we will want to complete all of our rail expansions before the end of this 4 year plan so we can then invest all of our tiberium dice into the lucrative red zone actions they unlock. We will still only be able to acquire 3 of those farms even if we do that though.

I just hope that the income from them allows us to quickly recover quickly into the next 4 year plan.
 
We don't actually have to do that for any of the vehicles except the Mastodon. Ground Forces doesn't see them as a high priority compared to power armor, so if we're not doing power armor, we shouldn't be doing new ground vehicle prototypes.

...

The miiltary actually gives a shit about zone armor. We should do basically only zone armor for the Ground Forces until such time as we've got them well and properly stood up and they go "hey thanks good job." Then and only then should we even consider doing other vehicle development except the Mastodon and maybe a Mammoth refit since those are literally unchanged since before the Third Tiberium War and importantly lack point defense.
This is generally correct, but there's one big exception: starting mass Zone Armor deployment means we're going to need to start thinking seriously about either developing the HAPC, or snagging a Guardian replacement. Cramming Zone suits into a standard APC is explicitly a pain, and doing a mass rollout is rapidly going to take that particular problem from "minor annoyance" to "major issue". We can probably get away with a few factories, but once we start the rollout, the clock starts ticking.
On the bright side, ZOCOM would probably appreciate not being crammed into their vehicles like sardines.
 
My real concern with your plan is the Energy situation since Fusion is not nigh guaranteed to complete, which means if the other projects do complete, we'd have a shortage.

15 Current - 2 Suzuka - 1 Chemical Fertilizer + 1 Bergen (Phase 1) - 1 Freeze Dried - 2 Porto - 2 AMA - 6 Firehawk - 5 Dubin - 6 Melbourne = -9 Energy.

Your plan does have a 74% chance of finishing Fusion, but there is too high of a possibility that we would have a severe energy shortage.
Hmm, you make a fair point. I'll move a die off Suzuka to CCF.
 
So 2062 after reallocation?
Yes, I thought it was clear from context that I was discussing projects to complete in early 2062, that's correct.

At one point, everyone thought the same of the Navy when it came to Karachi. ;)
Karachi is much bigger relative to the scale of the Navy than a single Red Zone Offensive would be relative to the scale of ZOCOM.

Among other things, because a Red Zone Offensive by definition takes place closer to the support of GDI's other combat arms than anything else ZOCOM ever does.

Remember, we've been getting constant warnings in the narrative about the war effort of how the Navy is desperately overstrained and Nod is getting hits through in a big way because of our naval weakness.

We have NOT been getting similar hints or warnings about ZOCOM.

I wouldn't even consider a major program of expanded Red Zone operations without ZOCOM-supporting actions, but a minor program of doing one testbed action seems less problematic to me.

Q4 2060 Plan Draft:

INFRASTRUCTURE 6/6 95R
-[] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6) 112/300 3 dice 60R 95%
-[] Blue Zone Arcologies (Stage 4) 1/650 1 die 15R (med 1/8)
-[] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 2) 28/160 2 dice 20R 89%
I infer that the idea here is to commit to a gradual arcology build by putting in one die and giving a sense of investment/commitment towards continuing to do so in future turns, while relying mainly on apartment construction to keep Housing numbers out in the face of the impending refugee expansion?

Personally I want to keep pushing railroads for one more turn because we've been told that logistics and supplies to our forces forward-deployed in the Green Zone are an an issue. And since I'm hoping we can get some more territory expansion (necessary if we wish to turn it Blue) out of this last turn of Steel Vanguard, that becomes important. The housing issue is an issue, but our buffer is thick enough that one more turn won't matter if we can get through to the formal end of Steel Vanguard and major offensives, at which point we're no longer spending several dice per turn on such projects.

HEAVY INDUSTRY 5/5 + 1 140R
-[] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants (Phase 7) 153/300 2 dice 40R 74%
-[] Suzuka Prototype Hover Chassis Factory 0/175 2 dice 40R 50%
-[] Isolinear Chip Foundry Anadyr 0/320 1 die 50R (median 1/4)
-[] Crystal Beam Industrial Laser Development: 0/80 1 die 10R 70%

...

Most notably, I'm pivoting away from completing Nuuk 4 this Plan in favour of banging out the Anadyr Isolinear chip fab while we've still got the resources to do it - it's either now or we need to spend another 3 years building the budget back up.
Given that we're only looking at thirteen dice for Nuuk Phase 4, it's not a strict either-or proposition if we're willing to spend Free dice in a serious manner, and we should be. One more turn to rebuild budget income also makes expensive HI projects a lot more practicable.

On which note, if we have Anadyr nearly finished, scraping together 50-100 R for 1-2 dice to finish it in 2062-63 is probably going to be a lot easier than scraping together 200 R for four dice in the same period.

...Not a fan of relying on spider cotton for Capital Goods when we have an impending population boom and when the legislature clearly wants us to expand food storage

LIGHT/CHEMICAL INDUSTRY 5/5 105R
-[] Chemical Fertilizer Plants (Phase 2) 94/300 3 dice 45R 74%
-[] Bergen Superconductor Foundry (Phase 1+2) 71/285 2 dice 60R 13%
Since there may not be a third phase of Fertilizer Plants, I would like to argue for flipping the third die on fertilizers to the cheaper Drone Factories action. No point in overkill.

ORBITAL 6/6 + 1 + Erewhon 160R
-[] GDSS Enterprise (Phase 5) 102/1535 Erewhon (1 die) 20R
-[] Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting (Phase 1+2) 0/285 3 dice 60R 22%
-[] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2) 50/320 1 die 20R (1/3.5 median)
-[] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 3) 217/375 3 dice 60R 96%
I would argue that it is a bad idea to prioritize this way. Putting three dice on Heavy Metals means a better-than-even chance of overkill. With dice scarce, that's a problem. It would be better to commit the extra die to Regolith or even Enterprise Phase 5.

Okay? I was talking about the next four year plan. I don't think we even have the option for the next gen vehicles right now
Almost very single one of our main combat vehicles is at the end of it's useful operational lifespan. More upgrades won't help until we build a new base vehicle and over the next 4 year plan we will need to get as many of them out as possible, as quickly as possible. This is not instead of zone armour, it's in addition to zone armour. For example, the new IFV will be specifically designed to carry zone armoured soldiers.
Okay, but I want to have a fairly strict prioritization of doing Thing One first and Thing Two second. Ground Force will want at least the first and probably second wave of their zone armor production done before we start developing vehicles, and each vehicle development project is going to need considerable factory construction.

Personally, my sequence looks like this:

1) Ground Force Zone Armor (wave one, possibly wave two factories)
2) Most obsolete vehicle replacements (new APC, Mammoth tank upgrades)
3) Less obsolete vehicle replacements (probable hovercar replacement for the Bulldog, Paladin tank)

I don't think the revision is going to knock off any factories. To me it reads more that if we do the revision then the factories are going to include the new suits as well or in place of regular ZA and that it's something Ground Forces would probably also really like done/benefit from even if it's a ZOCOM project.

I'd also say that doing the revision is less going for perfection and more just adding a little tweak before serial production.

Perfection would be getting drones and the backpack rocket launcher, which I do want but can wait.
Okay, that's a language issue on my part. I am using "to knock out" as slang for "to rapidly build, perhaps in a suboptimal but acceptable manner." In this case, I mean to quickly complete 1-2 of the planned wave of six factories, accepting that they will be suboptimal (that is, more expensive), in the interests of getting them done more quickly and not psyching ourselves out of building the things for months because we never seem to find the right time to do the Defender project or other upgrades to the power armor.

It does say cheaper. Although we don't know for sure that the GFs are using the Defender model. But since GFs are who I'd expect to be 'second and third line forces', I'd say it will.
Actually... um. We've been told how this works.

Wave One of the zone armor factories only equip a relative minority of Ground Forces in "spearhead" formations. Presumably, Waves Two and Three are even larger. There will be a total of three or four waves.

I am definitely an advocate of doing the Defender refit before trying to complete even the Wave One factory set, let alone Waves Two and Three.

But I also think it might be worthwhile to just hurry up and do one or two of the damn factories instead of worrying about it any longer, then yes, do the Defender refit anyway and proceed on that basis.

Agriculture 4/4 40R
[] Wadmalaw Kudzu Plantations (Phase 3) 56/450 4 dice 40R 8%
Tiberium 8/7 130R
-[] Yellow Zone Tiberium Harvesting (Phase 10) 174/350 3 dice 60R 99%
-[] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 6+7) 46/200 2 dice 30R 82%
-[] Railgun Harvester Factory (Porto) 44/70 1 AdminDice 10R 90%
-[] Railgun Harvester Factories (Bissau) 0/70 1 dice 10R 85%
-[] Liquid Tiberium Power Cell Deployment (Phase 1) 41/140 1 dice 20R 56%
Orbital 9/6 175R
-[] Advanced Materials Bay 0/400 3 dice 60R 0%
-[] Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting (Phase 1+2) 0/285 3 dice 60R 22%
-[] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 3) 217/375 2 dice 40R 60%
-[] Outer System Survey Probes 0/190 1 Erewhon Dice 15R 0%
I would be MUCH more comfortable postponing any decisions about the Enterprise bay options until we've actually finished our Plan commitments for the turn.

Liquid tiberium power is deeply controversial, we need to conserve and increase Political Support, and we don't need the +Energy this turn.

And the kudzu plantations are probably a bad idea when we have a large but indefinite wave of refugees greatly increasing demand for food. We want to at least have reasonably realistic numbers for what the refugee wave will do to our food requirements first, THEN we have some breathing room for the caffeinated kudzu.

Bureaucracy 4/4
-[] Administrative Assistance 2 die auto
-[] Security Reviews: DC50 1 die 90%,
-[] Security Reviews
A one-die review on Bureaucracy seems questionable, and I'm not sure the AA die for Porto is even really needed by comparison.

Your not looking at it from the strategic level. We had a certain number of actions we could take in railline expansion before the war started and we completed those. But now that we have gained all this territory we have unlocked all of these new rail line expansion actions. Notice they only came into being when our green zones butted up against the red zones? That was when we gained these 3 new actions. When three of our green zones made contact with their respective red zones.

To me it is crystal clear that we are going to need to complete a rail expansion for every new red zone farm we set up. At least for the cheap and highly effective income that we are hoping for. So we will want to complete all of our rail expansions before the end of this 4 year plan so we can then invest all of our tiberium dice into the lucrative red zone actions they unlock. We will still only be able to acquire 3 of those farms even if we do that though.

I just hope that the income from them allows us to quickly recover quickly into the next 4 year plan.
You're not looking at it from the strategic level.

Each rail line expansion action we've taken so far represented a global Initiative-wide push to extend numerous separate rail lines forward to and past the forward edge of the (pre-Steel Vanguard) Green Zones and into the (pre-Steel Vanguard) Yellow Zones that the advance of Ground Forces has turned Green.

In the places where the Green Zones are now in contact with the Red Zones, it is because our Steel Vanguard pushes, presumably supported by railroad expansion, just as they were everywhere else, have driven forward to the edge of the Red Zone. Therefore, it is entirely possible that in these specific areas, railroad lines have already been advanced. Not to the edge of the Red Zones, to be sure, but closer than they were before.

Furthermore, not every centimeter of railroad we build is classified under a "rail expansion" project. Construction of giant factory complexes like Nuuk or Johannesburg implies and requires some construction of rail spurs to service them. The ICS port expansions probably included some minor rail spur expansions. New major factories, refineries, and so on? Rail spurs to serve them- sidings, et cetera.

Yellow Zone harvesting expansions involve building lots of tiberium mining operations all over the Yellow and Green Zones. Do you think those expansions don't require railroad lines to support them? And yet, that gets funded under the 'Tiberium' category and is not gated behind more railroads.

Until and unless @Ithillid tells us that Red Zone Offensives are gated behind more railroad construction phases, it would be premature to assume that they must be- that is, that the scale of railroad expansion required is so large that it cannot be covered under "just build a few new sidings and spurs connected to the existing network, which is reasonably close by already."
 
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Red Zone Offensives are not going to be gated behind rail expansions specifically. Some will likely have a logistics cost, and the super glaciers that they gate definitely do, but that is because it is you going after glaciers like Kirby at an all you can eat buffet.

And nearly every project you do adds some roads and rails and water system works. The thing is that it would not be a very interesting game if you had to pay for each element a la carte. So I bundle it under the costs of some big project you are signing off on.
 
I'm not sold on spider cotton specifically bridging the last few points of cap goods we need, but we should at least see what projects lie behind the industrial lasers in HI before committing to Nuuk 4 this FYP. If smaller stuff like Anadyr/lasers/whatever else pops up as a non-megaproject cap goods source in HI can get us comfortably past the target, then keeping the flexibility in our HI sector and diversifying investment might be a better use of those 13 dice than overkilling our target massively via Nuuk. If the lasers provide even two points of cap goods projects, which I'm basically sure they will, then we can cover our target with just our base HI dice and no Nuuk.

It might also turn out that Nuuk is worth doing anyways, but I don't think it's a hard requirement that we should hold ourselves to finishing, especially since we're perpetually tight on dice. We should develop the lasers in Q4 just to know what our options are before committing to one path or the other in 2061 if nothing else.
 
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It might also turn out that Nuuk is worth doing anyways, but I don't think it's a hard requirement that we should hold ourselves to finishing, especially since we're perpetually tight on dice. We should develop the lasers in Q4 just to know what our options are before committing to one path or the other in 2061 if nothing else.

Thats fair, I think we might want the extra cap goods that Nuuk provides anyway to prevent the sort of cap goods shortages we were seeing throughout the early phases of this plan. If we finish the plan goal exactly, West Europe and Puerto Madryn are reconstructed, the Regency War ends, and we finish the Escort Carrier Yards for the Plan, we will be left with 30 Cap Goods (30 Current + 11 Plan - 10 End of War + 2 West Europe + 3 Puerto Madryn - 6 Escort Carrier Yards).

The Frigates and Wingmen will cost another 9 combined to finish them and GF Zone Armor costs 1 each, so if we only do one of those we are down to 20 Cap Goods. AMA and agricultural mechanization is 6, though we may or may not want to do those depending on the situation. That would leave us with 14 Cap Goods. Or roughly 350 RpT if we dumped it all into Vein Mines.

But we'd also want cap goods for more zone armor, the shipyards for the offensive navy, or the AEVA's if we were feeling really bold and were rolling in cap goods. Having the extra cap goods puts us in a position were we don't have to horde them like a miser. I do think we can get Anadyr this plan even with Nuuk, I just don't think this is a good turn for it when we just had a serious income hit.
 
Tentative plan based on 📈, +botes

[]Plan Botes Go Up
Infrastructure 6 dice +34 6 dice + 5 free dice 80R
-[] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6) 112/300 2 dice 40R 47%
-[] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 2+3) 28/160 4 dice 40R 85%
Heavy Industry 5 dice +29 5 dice + 1 free die 150R, -10R/turn
-[] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants (Phase 7) 153/300 2 dice 40R 74%
-[] Crystal Beam Industrial Laser Development 0/80 1 die 10R 70%
-[] Isolinear Chip Foundry Anadyr 0/320 2 dice 100R
-[] Division of Alternative Energy 1 die auto
Light and Chemical Industry 5 dice +24 5 dice 120R
-[] Chemical Fertilizer Plants (Phase 2) 94/300 2 dice 30R 17%
-[] Bergen Superconductor Foundry (Phase 1+2) 71/285 3 dice 90R 68%
Agriculture 4 dice +24 4 dice 50R
-[] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 3+4) 30/280 3 dice 30R 86%
-[] Freeze Dried Food Plants 126/200 1 die 20R 56%
Tiberium 7 dice +39 7 dice 130R
-[] Tiberium Vein Mines (Stage 2+3) 5/385? 5 dice 100R 90%
-[] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 6+7) 46/200 2 dice 30R 82%
Orbital Industry 6 dice +26 6 dice + 1 Free Die 140R
-[] Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting (Phase 1+2) 0/285 4 dice 80R 73%
-[] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 3) 217/375 3 dice 60R 96%
Services 5 dice +27 5 dice + Erewhon die 65R
-[] Automatic Medical Assistants 101/300 2 dice 20R 26%
-[] Professional Sports Programs 0/250 3 dice 30R 49%
-[] Hardlight Interface Development 0/40 1 die 15R (Erewhon Die)
Military 8 dice +26 8 dice + 5 free die 230R
-[] Firehawk Wingmen Drones 215/450 3 dice 60R 57%
-[] Skywatch Telescope System 0/95 1 die 10R 47%
-[] Railgun Munitions Development 0/60 1 die 10R 87%
-[] Escort Carrier Shipyards (New York) 0/240 3 dice 60R 54%
-[] Escort Carrier Shipyards (Dublin) 0/240 2 dice 40R 4%
-[] Shark Class Frigate Shipyard (Melbourne) 172/300 2 dice 40R 82%
-[] Mastodon Heavy Assault Walker Development 0/30 1 die 10R 100%
Bureaucracy 4 dice +24
-[] Conduct Economic Census DC 100/150/200/250, DC 250 4 dice 86%

80+150+120+50+130+140+65+230= 965 / 975 + 10 (-10R/t) 975R

It's a bit energy-heavy, but we will probably want a turn of not doing more power plants to get a good start on our next major HI Capgoods project. And it also presumes that Steel Vanguard is winding down, because... I'm pretty sure it is.
 
Thats fair, I think we might want the extra cap goods that Nuuk provides anyway to prevent the sort of cap goods shortages we were seeing throughout the early phases of this plan. If we finish the plan goal exactly, West Europe and Puerto Madryn are reconstructed, the Regency War ends, and we finish the Escort Carrier Yards for the Plan, we will be left with 30 Cap Goods (30 Current + 11 Plan - 10 End of War + 2 West Europe + 3 Puerto Madryn - 6 Escort Carrier Yards).

The Frigates and Wingmen will cost another 9 combined to finish them and GF Zone Armor costs 1 each, so if we only do one of those we are down to 20 Cap Goods. AMA and agricultural mechanization is 6, though we may or may not want to do those depending on the situation. That would leave us with 14 Cap Goods. Or roughly 350 RpT if we dumped it all into Vein Mines.

But we'd also want cap goods for more zone armor, the shipyards for the offensive navy, or the AEVA's if we were feeling really bold and were rolling in cap goods. Having the extra cap goods puts us in a position were we don't have to horde them like a miser. I do think we can get Anadyr this plan even with Nuuk, I just don't think this is a good turn for it when we just had a serious income hit.
Hm. I can sort of see the logic of doing a big surge of other Heavy Industry projects as an alternative to focusing down Nuuk this turn, though my own plans are going to continue the Nuuk beeline, fully intending to use Free dice to get Nuuk and Suzuka and lasers and Anadyr and fusion power...

Tentative plan based on 📈, +botes

[]Plan Botes Go Up
Infrastructure 6 dice +34 6 dice + 5 free dice 80R
-[] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6) 112/300 2 dice 40R 47%
-[] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 2+3) 28/160 4 dice 40R 85%
We don't need so many apartments so fast that this is a necessary investment. Unless we're doing this to save Resources (in which case we should just go whole hog and spend six dice on apartments, or maybe spend on those arcologies we promised to build)... It's not worth it.

Remember, the reason to keep pushing the fortress towns so hard is to support Steel Vanguard. Steel Vanguard is petering out. If we can't be reasonably confident of finishing the towns this quarter, it's probably not worth investing in them right now.

Heavy Industry 5 dice +29 5 dice + 1 free die 150R, -10R/turn
-[] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants (Phase 7) 153/300 2 dice 40R 74%
-[] Crystal Beam Industrial Laser Development 0/80 1 die 10R 70%
-[] Isolinear Chip Foundry Anadyr 0/320 2 dice 100R
-[] Division of Alternative Energy 1 die auto
Please no. Don't do the alternative energy thing right now. It's a bad option until we have enough Energy to meet the very power-hungry requirements of the current Plan. We're Resource-rich at the moment, and so it comes down to a choice of spending one Heavy Industry die per turn on fusion power and getting +4 Energy per die (on average), or on alternative power and getting +3 Energy per die.

Alternative energy becomes a much better deal in 2062Q1 when we have an actual budget shortfall again.

Also, it's inadvisable to do only two dice on Fusion Plants this turn, because we really do need to keep the Energy pouring on for the military factories- which are by far the biggest consumers, collectively speaking.

Tiberium 7 dice +39 7 dice 130R
-[] Tiberium Vein Mines (Stage 2+3) 5/385? 5 dice 100R 90%
-[] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 6+7) 46/200 2 dice 30R 82%

Orbital Industry 6 dice +26 6 dice + 1 Free Die 140R
-[] Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting (Phase 1+2) 0/285 4 dice 80R 73%
-[] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 3) 217/375 3 dice 60R 96%
This approach to moon mining is a bad idea, in that it wastes dice. We need to diversify and use a relatively minimal number of dice on each mining operation, because every wasted die overspent on a project now means that we end up more likely to need to use Free dice on Enterprise Phase 5 to get it done on time in 2061Q4.

Also, I'm not sure vein mining is a good choice for tiberium dice right now. It doesn't support Steel Vanguard and the income surge, while nice, isn't exactly amazing.

Services 5 dice +27 5 dice + Erewhon die 65R
-[] Automatic Medical Assistants 101/300 2 dice 20R 26%
-[] Professional Sports Programs 0/250 3 dice 30R 49%
-[] Hardlight Interface Development 0/40 1 die 15R (Erewhon Die)
Erewhon has a fairly high chance (~24%) of not finishing that project and forcing us to spend a second die on it. Erewhon dice, like AA dice, are much better used on projects that are either really close to completion, or where the "progress bar" is so long that every little bit really does help.

Military 8 dice +26 8 dice + 5 free die 230R
-[] Firehawk Wingmen Drones 215/450 3 dice 60R 57%
-[] Skywatch Telescope System 0/95 1 die 10R 47%
-[] Railgun Munitions Development 0/60 1 die 10R 87%
-[] Escort Carrier Shipyards (New York) 0/240 3 dice 60R 54%
-[] Escort Carrier Shipyards (Dublin) 0/240 2 dice 40R 4%
-[] Shark Class Frigate Shipyard (Melbourne) 172/300 2 dice 40R 82%
-[] Mastodon Heavy Assault Walker Development 0/30 1 die 10R 100%
Bureaucracy 4 dice +24
-[] Conduct Economic Census DC 100/150/200/250, DC 250 4 dice 86%
I'm not sure Skywatch is a good investment of our energies here. Also... To be candid, your "maximize botes" plan only has seven dice on shipyards. That's not dramatically more than the five- and six-die plans I'm seeing out of other people.

No, you're not looking at it from the strategic level!

...I don't have anything to add. I just wanted to say that too. :p
Yeah, that was admittedly me return-to-sendering the remark because it seems to me like the accusation fits just about as well either way. :p
 
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Slightly updated plan draft:

(Note: I am mentally braced for Gulati to quit after renegotiation, not that I expect it. Lower-chance outcomes in Infrastructure are based on "no Gulati.")



975/985 R
7/7 Free dice

TENTATIVE ENERGY BUDGET
+15 (Projected Existing Surplus) +16 (Fusion Phase 7) +1 (Bergen Phase 1)
-1 (Fertilizers) -1 (Freeze Drying) -2 (AMA) -6 (Firehawk Drones) -6 (Shark Yard) -5 (Carrier Yard)
End Result: +11 Energy surplus, but with enough rollover to readily take the next fusion phase.

NEXT QUARTER BUDGET:

985+10 R baseline
+7.5 RpT (Green Zone Intensification Phase 6)
99% chance of +7.5 RpT (Yellow Zone Harvesting)
82% chance of +7.5 RpT (Green Zone Intensification Phase 7)
45% chance of +22.5 RpT (Red Zone Border Offensives)
36% chance of +20 RpT (Lunar Heavy Metals Mines Phase 3)
32% chance of +15 RpT (Lunar Regolith Harvesting Phase 2)
67% chance of +5 RpT (Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting Phase 1)

Very pessimistic outcome 1010 R (1.4% chance of doing this badly)
Very optimistic outcome 1080 R (2.8% chance of doing this well)
Median outcome: ~1035 R

[] Plan Myriad Moon Mines
Infrastructure (+24 or 34, with or without Gulati) 6/6 Dice 105 R
-[] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6) 112/300 (3 Dice, 60 R) (84% or 94.5% chance)
-[] Rail Network Construction Campaigns (Phase 5) 39/325 (3 Dice, 45 R) (18% or 37% chance)
Heavy Industry (+29) 5/5 Dice + 1 Free Dice 140 R
-[] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant (Phase 7) 153/300 (3 Dice, 60 R) (98.7% chance, median result 107/300 on Phase 8)
-[] Nuuk Heavy Robotics Foundry (Phase 4) 143/1200 (3 Dice, 60 R) (3/13.5 median)
Light and Chemical Industry (+24) 5/5 Dice 120 R
-[] Bergen Superconductor Foundry (Phase 1+2) 71/285 (3 Dice, 90 R) (Phase 1, 68% chance of Phase 2)
-[] Chemical Fertilizer Plants 94/300 (2 Dice, 30 R) (17% chance)
Agriculture (+24) 4/4 Dice 50 R
-[] Freeze Dried Food Plants 126/200 (1 Die, 20R) (56% chance)
-[] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 3+4) 30/280 (3 Dice, 30 R) (Phase 3, 42% ??? chance of Phase 4)
--[] @Derpmind are you sure the table's working?
--[] I ran AnyDice for 3d100+72+30+15 and got 42% chance of hitting 280; you have 86%...
Tiberium (+39) 7/7 Dice 140 R
-[] Yellow Zone Tiberium Harvesting (Phase 10) 174/350 (3 Dice, 60 R) (98.8% chance)
-[] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 6+7) 46/200 (2 Dice, 30 R) (82% chance)
-[] Red Zone Border Offensives (Stage 1) 0/200 (2 Dice, 50 R) (45% chance)
Orbital (+26) 6/6 Dice + EREWHON!!! 140 R
-[] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 3) 217/375 (1+E Dice, 40 R) (36% chance of Phase 3)
-[] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2) 50/320 (3 Dice, 60 R) (32% chance)
-[] Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting (Phase 1) 0/150 (2 Dice, 40 R) (67% chance)
Services (+27) 3/5 Dice 55 R
-[] Automatic Medical Assistants 101/300 (2 Dice, 40 R) (26% chance)
-[] Hardlight Interface Development 0/40 (1 Die, 15 R) (100% chance)
Military (+26) 8/8 Dice + 6 Free Dice 245 R
-[] Railgun Munitions Development 0/60 (1 Die, 10 R) (87% chance)
-[] Ablat Plating Deployment (Stage 5) 54/200 (2 Dice, 20 R) (70% chance)
-[] Hallucinogen Countermeasures Development 0/40 (1 Die, 15 R) (100% chance)
-[] Firehawk Wingmen Drones 215/450 (4 Dice, 80 R) (94% chance)
-[] Shark Class Frigate Shipyard (Melbourne) 172/300 (2 Dice, 40 R) (82% chance)
-[] Shark Class Frigate Shipyard (Seattle) 0/300 (1 Die, 20 R) (1/4 median)
-[] Escort Carrier Shipyards (Nagoya) 0/240 (3 Dice, 60 R) (54% chance)
Bureaucracy 4/4 Dice
-[] Interdepartmental Favors
-[] Security Review: Bureaucracy (2 Dice, also -1 Bureaucracy die)

Changes made:

1) Investments in agricultural mechanization and aquaponics consolidated onto aquaponics to save funds. @Derpmind , there may be an issue with the table calculations, or I may be missing something?

2) Investment in Red Zone inhibitors and refinery refits are consolidated into a Red Zone offensive.

Notes:
Six dice on Navy, four dice on Air Force, four dice on Ground Forces. Very military-heavy plan. Banks some Resources and does a lot of +RpT projects (all uncertain of success, but sheer numbers makes some successes likely), so hopefully we can afford an Anadyr die next turn)
 
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Okay, but I want to have a fairly strict prioritization of doing Thing One first and Thing Two second. Ground Force will want at least the first and probably second wave of their zone armor production done before we start developing vehicles, and each vehicle development project is going to need considerable factory construction.

Personally, my sequence looks like this:

1) Ground Force Zone Armor (wave one, possibly wave two factories)
2) Most obsolete vehicle replacements (new APC, Mammoth tank upgrades)
3) Less obsolete vehicle replacements (probable hovercar replacement for the Bulldog, Paladin tank)
Personally I would say slightly differently
1) Ground Force Zone Armour (wave one)
2) Paladin, APC
3) More Zone Armour
4) Most of the rest of the vehicles
5) SMARVs

My argument for Prioritising Paladins over Mammoths is that frankly the Mammoths are big enough to still hit extremely hard even despite their being more obsolete, meanwhile the Predator is probably one of the vehicles with the highest loss rate in GDI and so I think the switch to Paladins will both have a greater impact and reduce casualties more

My argument for Vehicles before wave two of Zone armour is that this will probably be enough for our primary assaulting forces to be Zone Armoured. I think having most of our offensive forces in Zone Armour and with newer armoured and mechanised support is likely to be more useful than giving Zone armour to infantry in defensive roles where they already have the advantages of fortifications and a metric shitload of artillery support
 
Re: Gulati.
Entirely fair if she walks away. We continually passed over our chances for making Karachi viable.
However, I wonder if the Lhasa MARV Hub would be an acceptable swap for the moment. (Assuming that Karachi is then added to next Plan's goals.)
Bolstering and expanding the Himalayan BZ indirectly helps people in Pakistan.
 
Version of my plan draft with Anadyr and no Nuuk:



980/985 R
7/7 Free dice

TENTATIVE ENERGY BUDGET
+15 (Projected Existing Surplus) +16 (Fusion Phase 7) +1 (Bergen Phase 1)
-1 (Fertilizers) -1 (Freeze Drying) -2 (AMA) -6 (Firehawk Drones) -6 (Shark Yard) -5 (Carrier Yard) -4 (Railgun Harvesters) -2 (Anadyr?)
End Result: +5 Energy surplus in worst plausible case, but with enough rollover to readily take the next fusion phase.

NEXT QUARTER BUDGET:

========NEEDS FIXING===========

985+5 R baseline
+7.5 RpT (Green Zone Intensification Phase 6)
+5 RpT (Railgun Harvesters Porto)
99% chance of +7.5 RpT (Yellow Zone Harvesting)
82% chance of +7.5 RpT (Green Zone Intensification Phase 7)
85% chance of +5 RpT (Railgun Harvesters Bissau)
36% chance of +20 RpT (Lunar Heavy Metals Mines Phase 3)
32% chance of +15 RpT (Lunar Regolith Harvesting Phase 2)
67% chance of +5 RpT (Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting Phase 1)

Very pessimistic outcome 1010 R
Median-ish outcome: ~1040 R
Very optimistic outcome 1075 R





[] Plan Anadyr Also Alliterates
Infrastructure (+24 or 34, with or without Gulati) 6/6 Dice 90 R
-[] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6) 112/300 (3 Dice, 60 R) (84% or 94.5% chance)
-[] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 2+3) 28/320 (3 Dice, 30 R) (98.7 or 100% chance of Phase 2, 15% or 33% chance of Phase 3)
Heavy Industry (+29) 5/5 Dice + 2 Free Dice 220 R
-[] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant (Phase 7) 153/300 (3 Dice, 60 R) (98.7% chance, median result 107/300 on Phase 8)
-[] Crystal Beam Industrial Laser Development 0/80 (1 Die, 10 R) (70% chance)
-[] Isolinear Chip Foundry Anadyr 0/320 (3 Dice, 150 R) (10% chance)
Light and Chemical Industry (+24) 5/5 Dice 100 R
-[] Bergen Superconductor Foundry (Phase 1+2) 71/285 (2 Dice, 60 R) (Phase 1, 13% chance of Phase 2)
-[] Civilian Drone Factories 0/380 (1 Die, 10 R) (1/5 median)
-[] Chemical Fertilizer Plants 94/300 (2 Dice, 30 R) (17% chance)
Agriculture (+24) 4/4 Dice 40 R
-[] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 3+4+5) 30/420 (4 Dice, 40 R) (Phase 3, 85% chance of Phase 4, 9.6% chance of Phase 5)
Tiberium (+39) 7/7 Dice 110 R
-[] Yellow Zone Tiberium Harvesting (Phase 10) 174/350 (3 Dice, 60 R) (98.8% chance)
-[] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 6+7) 46/200 (2 Dice, 30 R) (82% chance)
-[] Railgun Harvester Factory (Bissau) 0/70 (1 Die, 10 R) (85% chance)
-[] Railgun Harvester Factory (Porto) 44/70 (1 Die, 10 R) (100% chance)
Orbital (+26) 6/6 Dice + EREWHON!!! 140 R
-[] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 3) 217/375 (1+E Dice, 40 R) (36% chance of Phase 3)
-[] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2) 50/320 (3 Dice, 60 R) (32% chance)
-[] Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting (Phase 1) 0/150 (2 Dice, 40 R) (67% chance)
Services (+27) 3/5 Dice 55 R
-[] Automatic Medical Assistants 101/300 (2 Dice, 40 R) (26% chance)
-[] Hardlight Interface Development 0/40 (1 Die, 15 R) (100% chance)
Military (+26) 8/8 Dice + 5 Free Dice 225 R
-[] Railgun Munitions Development 0/60 (1 Die, 10 R) (87% chance)
-[] Ablat Plating Deployment (Stage 5) 54/200 (2 Dice, 20 R) (70% chance)
-[] Hallucinogen Countermeasures Development 0/40 (1 Die, 15 R) (100% chance)
-[] Firehawk Wingmen Drones 215/450 (4 Dice, 80 R) (94% chance)
-[] Shark Class Frigate Shipyard (Melbourne) 172/300 (2 Dice, 40 R) (82% chance)
-[] Escort Carrier Shipyards (Nagoya) 0/240 (3 Dice, 60 R) (54% chance)
Bureaucracy 4/4 Dice
-[] Interdepartmental Favors
-[] Security Review: Bureaucracy (2 Dice, also -1 Bureaucracy die)

Changes made:

1) Railroads replaced with apartments. We really don't need the Housing right away, but apartments are definitely cheaper. And Anadyr hungers.

2) One Bergen die 'demoted' to a drone factories die. Budget is a factor. And Anadyr hungers.

3) Finishing the freeze-drying plants is postponed. A fourth aquaponics die is 10 R cheaper. We've done work on them recently; progress won't decay. And Anadyr hungers.

4) The Red Zone border offensive is called off in favor of the cheaper railgun harvesters. Anadyr hungers.

5) Three dice on Anadyr, enough that we might actually finish the project in one turn. After this, it will need at most one die per turn of slow-walking; more would be madness. Fear and revere Anadyr.
 
-[] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 3+4) 30/280 (3 Dice, 30 R) (Phase 3, 42% ??? chance of Phase 4)
--[] @Derpmind are you sure the table's working?
--[] I ran AnyDice for 3d100+72+30+15 and got 42% chance of hitting 280; you have 86%...
The Probability Array isn't an automated program. I've got an excel sheet that does all the math automatically, but I still have to enter in all the data by hand, and then put the results back into the thread by hand too. With... 160-ish entries, it's easy for me to make a mistake or two. In this case, I accidentally assigned the probability numbers one die lower than they should be, like so:

-[ERROR] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 3+4) 30/280 2 dice 20R 42%, 3 dice 30R 86%, 4 dice 40R 99%
-[CORRECTED] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 3+4) 30/280 3 dice 30R 42%, 4 dice 40R 86%, 5 dice 50R 99%

Thank you for pointing this error out; it's now been fixed.
Re: Gulati.
Entirely fair if she walks away. We continually passed over our chances for making Karachi viable.
:eyebrow: We only spent the first two years of this Plan trying to prepare for Karachi.
 
The Probability Array isn't an automated program. I've got an excel sheet that does all the math automatically, but I still have to enter in all the data by hand, and then put the results back into the thread by hand too. With... 160-ish entries, it's easy for me to make a mistake or two. In this case, I accidentally assigned the probability numbers one die lower than they should be, like so:

-[ERROR] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 3+4) 30/280 2 dice 20R 42%, 3 dice 30R 86%, 4 dice 40R 99%
-[CORRECTED] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 3+4) 30/280 3 dice 30R 42%, 4 dice 40R 86%, 5 dice 50R 99%

Thank you for pointing this error out; it's now been fixed.
Pleasure to be of service.

:eyebrow: We only spent the first two years of this Plan trying to prepare for Karachi.
To be fair, we did try; we just neglected a critical component of our preparations- the navy.
 
[] Plan Myriad Moon Mines

[] Plan Anadyr Also Alliterates

Both of these plans look good to me. Military stuff looks great.

We only spent the first two years of this Plan trying to prepare for Karachi.

As I recall we were literally a turn away from starting Karachi when we got the info about the warlords planned attack and we had to shift priorities.
 
To be fair, we did try; we just neglected a critical component of our preparations- the navy.
As I recall we were literally a turn away from starting Karachi when we got the info about the warlords planned attack and we had to shift priorities.
It appears I was unclear. I'm using the :eyebrow: emoji here to express my disagreement with @HousePet's statement that we "passed over" Karachi. Instead, we were trying to do Karachi right up until we got the nat 100 intel on NOD's attack. We didn't neglect to do Karachi, as the post I was replying to implied, but instead spent several turns building up to it specifically.
 
I'd really rather not leave any dice fallow this close to the end of the plan. Mindshield deployment, hallucinogen development, human genetic engineering programs, heck, even the sports program are all very worthwhile projects.
 

This is our military dice expenditure over the current plan. You can see the drop in naval investment post the completion of the Hydrofoils and Governor Shipyards early in the plan. What did we do instead? There is a clear increase in the Air Force and in the General Military during the Q2 2059 - Q4 2059 period where there was no naval investment. We instead were investing in finishing the Wartime factory refits and deploying the Long Range Sensors in the general military and the Orca refits and the Auroras in the air force. At the end of that period we were also heavily investing in our consumables, something which has made Steel Vanguard possible in its current form and in OSRCT which has come through for us on multiple occasions thus far.

Edit: I do not believe our investments were mistaken, though they could have been more even, they did prove necessary to how well we are doing in the Regency War.
 
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We might have been better off prioritizing escort carrier shipyards over the war factory refits, honestly. Yes, having +1 Military dice pays off in the long run, but the naval weakness has really put our combat effectiveness as an overall military on a choke chain and restricted us from accomplishing things like Karachi.

I'd really rather not leave any dice fallow this close to the end of the plan. Mindshield deployment, hallucinogen development, human genetic engineering programs, heck, even the sports program are all very worthwhile projects.
Mind shield deployment is a big X-factor since we don't know whether to expect the project under Services or Military, or how much it will cost. Any plan draft I do prior to the big turn post hitting is always tentative, because I can't read the future and determine whether a more attractive option will arise to draw resources away.

Human genetic engineering is NOT a good choice right now because we just burned a ton of political capital on Plan renegotiation and the conversion carriers. Burning more with questionable activities, bad choice.

Sports isn't a bad choice (for that same reason), but might be seen as a questionable use of resources during a major military campaign.

But what it comes down to is that getting all those Services projects done requires sacrificing elsewhere, and it's a real tradeoff. Do you want to give up a die on Bergen in exchange for activating one or two Services dice? I dunno. I'm not sure I would, in your shoes.
 
There are a lot of options for downsizing our resource expenditure. Not all of them have to be taken. That said, you were pretty easily able to free up 80 resources for a frontloaded isolinear chip factory (10% CoS) by shifting around other projects (including 1 of 3 dice from Bergen). The cheapest available services projects would cost us 20 R in total (for not leaving two dice fallow), which is very easy to fit in within those switchups.

My primary concern with sports isn't whether we would have the playerbase, nor that it would be unpopular. Founding the sports during the war would actually allow us to push for nonconventional sports to be adopted, for players who would otherwise be considered 'unfit' (due to cultural norms) to play (so maybe more elderly players, or people with prosthetics. Sort of like how WW2 saw the establishment of professional women's baseball in America ).

I'm pretty sure that restarting sports games during wartime would be popular. It is another sign of a return to the world from before the tiberium wars, and a message to our people that we are winning the current conflict. And, of course, for certain cegments of humanity professional sports are very, very popular. There's a reason why a project so hilariously cheap in resources and progress provides so much political support. It will make our people as a whole much happier.

The problem with the sports program is the Health cost, when we are having so much variance in Health consumption due to the refugee waves. I'd really rather get the Human Genetic Engineering development done first so that we can have the Health ready for the sports program, and start the very long HGE development timer sooner rather than later. But we are currently stuck on not doing HGE due to the PS cost that sports grants, and not doing the sports program due to the Health cost that HGE grants. And we don't have the dice for both (and we keep leaving services dice fallow, so we don't make process on the problem). I think that going for sports is the easier program to push for the thread, especially considering its relatively low resource cost.
 
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