You can always make a point about almost every branch and how it should have been given more attention.

The ground forces do the majorty of fighting, so we should have focused more in them so we could win all the fight.

The air force ensures our cities aren't bomb and that our troops will have friendly support.

The navy ensures we have logistics and that we can carry troops around while NOD can't.

Steel Talons is what gives us researchs and security for the stations.

You could give valid reasoning for every single branch of military. Just looking at it stand-alone, we would have "failed" every branch.

Could we have given navy more funding? Yes, but that is true for every branch.
 
You can always make a point about almost every branch and how it should have been given more attention.

The ground forces do the majorty of fighting, so we should have focused more in them so we could win all the fight.

The air force ensures our cities aren't bomb and that our troops will have friendly support.

The navy ensures we have logistics and that we can carry troops around while NOD can't.

Steel Talons is what gives us researchs and security for the stations.

You could give valid reasoning for every single branch of military. Just looking at it stand-alone, we would have "failed" every branch.

Could we have given navy more funding? Yes, but that is true for every branch.
We generally did our best to give each area what they needed in a relatively timely fashion (bar the Talons, until recently. They're quite sour about it even) once we were out of the red of the early quest. Except for the navy, which we dragged our feet on for so long (again, they've been asking for the point defence and new class of ships since the very beginning of the quest) a lot of our spending that we did end up giving them is going to have little to no relevancy in this war.
 
The Navy should get a eaiser time the more our army push to take land, as they would make a lot of the coast, so some NOD navy bases should be taken
 
Does that count the orca refits?
That's a minor detail, since it's at most half their project and I don't think we spent more than about five dice on it.

We've spent forty dice on the Navy, out of 233 total, unless I forgot a branch.
Sounds plausible.

That's close to a sixth. And we have six branches.

Now, you can argue that we should have spent, say, 50 dice on the Navy and ten less dice on the Ground Forces or something. But the point is, the Navy's gotten a more or less reasonable fraction of the total dice allocation we have available.

Has it turned out to be enough? No, not really. But it's not the level of systematic shorting and starving that the Talons suffered through for most of the game.

You made a single key mistake in the preparation for this war. Not realizing that naval strategy is a build strategy. You don't build the navy you want in six months before the war begins. You put in the investments now, for the navy that you want three to five years from now.
I think it was a combination of that, and of not quite understanding how badly we'd need those escort carriers for this war.

The Navy were asking for new point defence systems, and new cruisers, from the very beginning of the quest. Those are only just starting to be put out in the field in any significant number now. It doesn't matter how many dice we've put in for them if the projects we did weren't the core vital ones, and weren't done at such a time to actually be relevant when we need them.
Be specific, then. On what turns, in particular, should we have made what sacrifices, precisely, to fund which naval projects, in particular?

Because it's pathetically easy to look at an unsatisfactory end result, turn to the whole rest of the questgoer population, shake your fist and say "YOU MORONS, YOU IGNORED THE NAVY!"

What, in particular, should we have done differently, and when?

Because your criticism is fully generic. "The Navy projects you've spent dice on weren't the core vital ones-" nonsense! They were. "They weren't done in time to be relevant-" arguably not, but when exactly DID we have time to, say, build six 200-point 20 R/die military shipyard upgrades that cost -1 Capital Goods and -2 Energy apiece? How soon should we have done that? Be specific.

Edit: Military planning is not the same as economy planning. We can't play 100% for the long game and "just get by" in the interim, we can't discard everything for the sake of efficiency and keep putting off needed options because they might be better some nebulous point in the future, or we take losses we can't afford in the here and now.
Do you think we discarded everything for 'efficiency' and did just enough for the military as a whole?

It is to laugh. We've poured a majority of our available Free dice into the military for a couple of dozen turns now. We've got a military tough enough that it's currently pushing Nod back literally all over the world. We are specifically vulnerable at sea, but even there we are quite capable of putting up a fight against Nod, even if not necessarily capable of doing well during offensive warfare.

Are your criticisms grounded in what the thread has actually done, or are you sort of auto-censoring any memory of what was actually done in favor of being angry that the results were unsatisfactory?
 
I'm guessing the CVEs take 4 years to build, given that the Navy will have 12 CVEs in 4 years. As opposed to "3 CVEs a year for the next 4 years" or anything like that. So about what it took for a Wasp to be built (40k ton sorta-carrier design). Now, we could assume that being built in a yard not designed for that type that it adds a year to construction, so maybe 3 years in proper yard. 12 turns would also be about double that of a 25k ton Governor, IIRC.

Frigates on the other hand are ~10k tons, so will likely take half as long as a Governor, or ~3 turns. If we slap out 1-2 frigate yards this turn, the first waves of new frigates ought to be hitting the water around the time Karachi kicks off. New CVE yards would potentially only be ~1/4-1/3 of the way through their first wave of carriers.

If we want CVEs to free up fleet carriers for Karachi, we almost certainly need to take the merchantman conversions.

Edit: Oh, and did anyone notice that the Mobile YZ area has joined the American South YZ on the most recent map? It's no longer isolated behind the red zone. Also, I wonder how much it would alter the naval escort requirements if we got the Suez reopened at some point, given that it looks like it was overrun by red zone.
 
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Frigates on the other hand are ~10k tons, so will likely take half as long as a Governor, or ~3 turns. If we slap out 1-2 frigate yards this turn, the first waves of new frigates ought to be hitting the water around the time Karachi kicks off. New CVE yards would potentially only be ~1/4-1/3 of the way through their first wave of carriers.

If we want CVEs to free up fleet carriers for Karachi, we almost certainly need to take the merchantman conversions.
We shouldn't end up choosing between one or the other. 1 or 2 frigate yards depending on how much them and Wingman Drones (which we also need) cost and no more than 1 dedicated escort carrier yard, if any.

But, yes, those conversions are probably necessary for Karachi, unless Sharks can somehow take CVNs off escort duty.
 
We shouldn't end up choosing between one or the other. 1 or 2 frigate yards depending on how much them and Wingman Drones (which we also need) cost and no more than 1 dedicated escort carrier yard, if any.

But, yes, those conversions are probably necessary for Karachi, unless Sharks can somehow take CVNs off escort duty.
I think our first three tasks for shipyard construction- and the exact order of operations is up for debate- are:

1) The first Shark-class frigate yard.
2) Converting the battleship yards.
3) The merchantman conversion carriers.

Then we build the remaining light carrier yards and frigate yards.
 
I think the advantage here is we're converting existing hulls into carriers, not building new ones.

Unless your plan involves ditching Karachi, whether you're a fan of the merchant conversions is beside the point; we need carrier decks in the water, and I'm pretty sure they won't be ready in time even if we build the entire set of escort carrier yards literally this very next turn.
The issue is though that we still need our existing hulls, we don't have a glut anywhere the merchant conversion is just that an emergency option that is going to impact logistics in the meantime. And I feel that getting an escort carrier yard online right away will work wonders. If the CVE work along the construction speed that the US had during WW2 for CVE then we are looking at 7-8 months to commission (less to launch). Which means escort carrier yards built now will start adding new useful hulls by the time we are in a position to pursue Karachi. So Q2 builds will be launching ships at end of Q1 of next year (maybe sooner depending on the dice go- more overkill would indicate yards online sooner in the turn). With a Karachi push next year that means we could likely have the battleship and 1 or 2 of the yards online with ships rolling out unless we go Q1 but given we have the rest of NOD to deal with I find that unlikely.

And with the merchant conversion taking a bit under the dice for the pure CVE shipyards pursuing merchant conversion is pushing off the launch of our CVE by 1 or 2 quarters from each yard.

So unless you are trying to run an early Karachi then doing CVE shipyards and ignoring merchant conversion since we have a lot of places that need Mil dice and free dice are needed in HI as well, is going to set us up better. We will have the logistics in place to support whatever actions we need, we will have additional mil equipment rolled out. And we will have ships built for CVE job with the increased durability and speed in comparison to a merchant conversion.

Edit- later in the runs they were going for laying down to commision in about 5 months so CVE construction rate will only increase as time passes.
 
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Be specific, then. On what turns, in particular, should we have made what sacrifices, precisely, to fund which naval projects, in particular?
Do we need to get heavily into specifics? The Ground Forces confidence level is Extremely High. Their Confidence hit High in Q2 2059. In Q4 we deliver them more sensors and 3 more consumables factories, including Shell Plants which wasn't even listed as a priority. That was 9 dice spent on Ground Forces when their confidence was already at High. (Conceding that some of these projects also helped other divisions, so 5 of these dice were still well applied.)
Other than that, I'm not sure we strictly needed the Savannah Hub/Fleet. Although it may have contributed to Gideon being useless again. But it did use about ~5 dice.
Could include the Plasma Weapons development projects, but presumably we'll get some use out of them soon.

Meanwhile, the Navy has been saying that they were only just able to do their jobs and really needed new Carriers to avoid blockades since Q1 2058.
 
The battleship yards should be converted with two dice in the first turn, because getting the yards set up is a priority, and we don't want to waste total time because those yards will be needed to maintain the remaining battleships in the future.

The 200-point yards in New York, Dublin, and Nagoya should be given two dice on the first turn and one die per turn afterwards to finish them off.

The merchantman conversions should be finished with three dice if at all possible, or failing that two in the first turn and as many as necessary in the immediate turn after, because the biggest problem with those ships is going to be getting them worked up and ready to go, and we don't want to risk them still being under construction any later than 2060Q4 when we really need them up and running to free up fleet carriers for Karachi.

I agree with regards to the Battleship Yards and the merchantman conversions, however the New York, Dublin, and Nagoya Yards are 240 not 200 Progress, and as a result their probability break down is: 2 dice 40R 4%, 3 dice 60R 54%, 4 dice 80R 92%. It might be a better idea to invest 3 dice into them on the first turn and one die after to finish them off if necessary.
 
The issue is though that we still need our existing hulls, we don't have a glut anywhere the merchant conversion is just that an emergency option that is going to impact logistics in the meantime...
We've been explicitly told what the option will look like, and it's not going to have an appreciable Logistics impact "in the meantime." It is literally thirty freighters we're talking about converting; compared to a worldwide merchant marine that's not enough to be more than maybe -1 Logistics. And we've been directly told, again, that it will not have this effect that you predict.

And I feel that getting an escort carrier yard online right away will work wonders. If the CVE work along the construction speed that the US had during WW2 for CVE then we are looking at 7-8 months to commission (less to launch).
Thanks to the decision to put wingman drones on them, the standard escort carrier design we're using is a 50,000 ton ship. It's a damn sight bigger than a World War Two escort carrier. It's bigger than a World War Two fleet carrier. For comparison, the heaviest and most advanced carrier class the US Navy fielded during World War Two, the Midway-class, displaced 45,000 tons.

The reason we can so easily convert our remaining battleship yards to make the light carriers is because the light carriers are the size of a literal battleship.

We're not getting those ships in "7-8 months to commission (less to launch)."

...

The historical escort carriers the USN constructed that fast were "jeep carriers," ships like the Casablanca-class, which had about 11,000 tons displacement and were, importantly, built on civilian merchantman hulls, which were already in mass production.

In short, ships that sound a lot like the merchantman conversion carriers the navy is going to grumble about.

If we want ships with carrier decks that can be completed in nine months or less, to be ready to free up fleet carriers for the Karachi Sprint in 2061... we're going to be doing the merchantman conversions next turn. Not the escort carrier yards.

If we want ships that can be completed in nine months or less at all, it's frigate yards or merchantman conversions. Not 'proper' carriers of any kind.

[quoteAnd with the merchant conversion taking a bit under the dice for the pure CVE shipyards pursuing merchant conversion is pushing off the launch of our CVE by 1 or 2 quarters from each yard.[/quote]Yes, but for the reasons I said above, that's likely to mean something more like "we get about thirty conversion carriers in 2061Q1 or Q2, but at the price of pushing back the first wave of proper CVLs from 2062Q3 to 2062Q4 or 2063Q1."

Which is worth it unless you're planning to forget about Karachi.

Because, I'm sorry, but you have an unrealistic picture of how fast the dedicated CVL yards (including the battleship slip conversions) can lay down and complete fifty-kiloton ships.

This is to some extent what I was talking about a month or two ago, when I kept saying we should just design the escort carriers and not wait for the wingman drones to be ready. If the escort carriers were physically smaller (due to not accommodating wingman drones), and if we'd started a few quarters sooner, then we could have started building them faster and we might have been able to rush a yard into production in time for the first wave of ships to be available for Karachi 2061.

As it is, they are literally as big as a battleship and will probably take a comparable amount of time to construct.

Do we need to get heavily into specifics? The Ground Forces confidence level is Extremely High. Their Confidence hit High in Q2 2059. In Q4 we deliver them more sensors and 3 more consumables factories, including Shell Plants which wasn't even listed as a priority. That was 9 dice spent on Ground Forces when their confidence was already at High. (Conceding that some of these projects also helped other divisions, so 5 of these dice were still well applied.)
The consumables plants were an arguable necessity in the context of impending war, because it was inevitable that consumables production adequate to the needs of limited skirmishing against Nod (the status quo in 2059) would be inadequate to the needs of global war against a general dogpile of the Nod warlords (the status quo in 2060).

If we hadn't built that extra wave of plants, it's fairly likely that we'd be getting messages in Results posts now about defending batteries having to slow their fire for lack of ammunition, or ground offensives running out of ablatives and starting to take losses from Nod lasers, in the next turn if not this turn.

With that said, that's at least credible.

Other than that, I'm not sure we strictly needed the Savannah Hub/Fleet. Although it may have contributed to Gideon being useless again. But it did use about ~5 dice.
The Savannah MARV fleet was a bizarre and frustrating case where we rolled unlucky twice in a row. It wasn't a failure of planning; when you roll a 4 and a 1 on two successive d100s, there's no real explanation except that the ghost of Confederate fucko John Bell Hood is messing with you or something.

The only thing we could really have afforded to do differently was either to leave the fleet almost finished for several turns, or to use Administrative Assistance and scrape up the Resource budget to afford it by taking dice or funds off another project. Which one?

Could include the Plasma Weapons development projects, but presumably we'll get some use out of them soon.
Since we did those development projects on literally the same turn that we developed the new ships, it would have done us no good to give those dice to the Navy.

Anyway, personally? I've argued for doing the escort carrier development project earlier than we did. I brought it up before. I dunno; it didn't sell.

I agree with regards to the Battleship Yards and the merchantman conversions, however the New York, Dublin, and Nagoya Yards are 240 not 200 Progress, and as a result their probability break down is: 2 dice 40R 4%, 3 dice 60R 54%, 4 dice 80R 92%. It might be a better idea to invest 3 dice into them on the first turn and one die after to finish them off if necessary.
You're not wrong; 4% chance of completion is low enough that it's very unlikely for us to waste that third die.

The main thing I want is to have multiple (frigate and light carrier) yards underway at a time, slow-walking the individual projects but keeping up a drumbeat of steady progress so that the yards as a whole get done as quickly as possible with minimal dice investment. This may occasionally entail spending only one die on a single yard and failing to complete it, even while another yard gets two dice.
 
and if we'd started a few quarters sooner, then we could have started building them faster and we might have been able to rush a yard into production in time for the first wave of ships to be available for Karachi 2061.
Which quarter are you looking at? My personal feeling is Q1 is still likely too early for any push into Karachi as there is a lot of the GDI to stabilize and try and knock out more of NOD elsewhere so that Air and Space are able to concentrate on Karachi

Thanks to the decision to put wingman drones on them, the standard escort carrier design we're using is a 50,000 ton ship. It's a damn sight bigger than a World War Two escort carrier. It's bigger than a World War Two fleet carrier. For comparison, the heaviest and most advanced carrier class the US Navy fielded during World War Two, the Midway-class, displaced 45,000 tons.
How big are the fleet carriers we are currently building than?
 
This version takes into account the new information about light and conversion carriers, and also remembers the part where apparently we're getting a cost reduction on Nuuk to 15 R/die instead of 20 R/die, a very welcome easing of the budget.

Changes: I sacrificed my one die on Shell Plants and shifted Bureaucracy from self-review to Administrative Assistance to focus on a serious investment in both frigates and conversion carriers, with 95% confidence of getting the merchantman conversion carriers done this quarter. Frigate probability depends heavily on the yard cost, which we don't have. If it were a 100-point yard like the hydrofoils I'd be pretty confident. If it were a 200-point yard like the Governor conversions then there'd be almost no chance. If it's a 150-point yard project in between the two, there's some chance.

With extra Resources in hand from the Nuuk budgeting, I also took the liberty of turning the Porto railgun harvester factory die into a third Chicago Phase 4 die. If we're gonna actively try to wreck Giddyboy, at least we can take it seriously and move the project far enough along to have a reasonable chance of completion next turn...



[] Draft Plan Health Care for Robot and for Humans, Mk III

965/965 R (accounting for orbital cleanup)
7/7 Free dice

Infrastructure 6/6 Dice 100 R
-[] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 4+5) 232/550 (3 Dice, 60 R) (17% chance of Phase 5)
-[] Rail Network Construction Campaigns (Phase 3) 159/300 (2 Dice, 30 R) (84% chance; one die would not be enough)
-[] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 2) 28/160 (1 Die, 10 R) (18% chance)

Heavy Industry 5/5 Dice + 4 Free Dice 150 R
-[] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant (Phase 5+6) 232/600 (4 Dice, 80 R) (~100% chance Phase 5, 28% chance of Phase 6)
-[] Nuuk Heavy Robotics Foundry (Phase 3) 118/640 (4 Dice, 60 R) (4/6.5 median)
-[] Isolinear Chip Development (1 Die, 30 R) (??% chance)

Light and Chemical Industry 5/5 Dice 100 R
-[] Reykjavik Myomer Macrospinner (Phase 4) 378/640 (2 Dice, 40 R) (17% chance)
-[] Medical Supplies Factories 0/225 (3 Dice, 60 R) (60% chance)

Agriculture 4/4 Dice 50 R
-[] Freeze Dried Food Plants 73/200 (1 Die, 20 R) (13% chance)
-[] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 2+3) 3/280 (3 Dice, 30 R) (98% chance of Phase 2, 23% chance of Phase 3)

Tiberium 7/7 Dice 125 R
-[] Yellow Zone Tiberium Harvesting (Phase 7) 183/300 (2 Dice, 40 R) (97% chance)
-[] Chicago Planned City 3/600 (3 Dice, 60 R) (3/6.5 median)
-[] Railgun Harvester Factory (Dandong) 45/70 (1 Die, 10 R) (~100% chance)
-[] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 5+6) 63/200 (1 Die, 15 R) (Stage 5, 18% chance of Stage 6)

Orbital 6/6 Dice 110 R
-[] GDSS Enterprise (Phase 4) 456/765 (5 Dice, 100 R) (96.5% chance, median outcome 114/1535 to Phase 5)
-[] Orbital Cleanup (Stage 9) 41/85 (1 Die, 10 R) (98% chance, 13% chance of Stage 10)

Services 4/5 Dice 80 R
-[] Automatic Medical Assistants 0/300 (4 Dice, 80 R) (67% chance)

Military 8/8 Dice + 3 Free Dice + 2 AA Dice 250 R
-[] Strategic Area Defense Networks (3 Dice, 60 R) (2% chance)
-[] Wingman Drone Deployment 0/??? (3 Dice, 45 R) (??% chance)
-[] Neural Interface System Refits (Talons) 77/105 (1 Die, 25 R) (~100% chance)
-[] Frigate Shipyard 0/??? (1+AA Dice, 40 R) (median result 127 Progress, might maybe complete, depends on cost)
-[] Merchantman Carrier Conversions (High Commitment) 0/200 (3+AA Dice, 80 R) (95% chance)

Bureaucracy 4/4 Dice
-[] Administrative Assistance x2 (4 Dice)

VERY CONSERVATIVE ENERGY BUDGET
+9 (Existing Surplus) + 16 (Fusion Phase 5)
-1 (Medical Supplies) -1 (Freeze Drying) -2 (Dandong) -2 (AMA) -4 (Drone factory) -6 (Frigate yard)

RESULT: Back to +9 surplus and in a good position to do the sixth phase of fusion plants in 2060Q3.
 
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Technically, the biggest, most advanced carrier the USN fielded in WW2 was the 37k ton full load Essex. Midway was commissioned a week after Japan's formal surrender in Tokyo Bay.

If the CVE work along the construction speed that the US had during WW2 for CVE then we are looking at 7-8 months to commission (less to launch).
Here's the thing. WW2 CVEs are merchantman conversions. The Navy took standard merchantman designs and converted the plans to carriers. GDI's CVE is a purpose designed and built carrier whose comparison to WW2 CVEs ends at "intended to escort convoys and defend them against air or sub attacks."

Bogue-class CVE? 14.2k tons full load, based on C3 cargo hull. First batch were actual conversions of merchant hulls, second batch were built from the keel up as CVEs.
Sangamon-class? 24.6k tons full load, based on T3 tanker hull. Converted from Cimmaron-class oilers.
Commencement Bay-class? 24.5k tons full load, based on T3 tanker hull. Built from keel up as CVEs.

These are all down around the Shark frigate or Governor cruiser displacement.

In comparison, we have the Wasp-class LHD. 41.2k tons full load. Laid down to commissioning? 3-4 years (aside from LHD-8's 5.5ish years). In sea control configuration, a Wasp carries 20 Harriers/Lightnings and 6 ASW helos. If we rip out the well deck, 6 cargo elevators, the monorail cargo system, the two cargo bays for ground supplies and vehicles, and most of the berthing for ~1900 Marines, convert the Harrier/Lightnings and ASW birds to Orcas/Hammerheads, then toss in ~9k tons more volume to fill and the rest of the air group, we get GDI's CVE. (I'd use the America-class, but while it's 45.7k tons full load, the first two took 6ish years to go laid down -> commissioned.)

Also, do note that out of the three concepts that were listed for the CVE design (Concept 2 winning due to Wingman project completion), the smallest option was a bare bones design that was probably the 40k ton CVE. GDI Navy was not apparently considering anything smaller than that.

--

Current Fleet carrier displacement... no clue. I look at Nimitz/Ford and figure 100k+ tons full load minimum.
 
Right so looking at ships for the USN and it seems to be about 3 to 4 years for the full sized fleet carriers of each era to be built during peace time, WW2 saw that drop to 1.5 to 2 years (full fleet carriers again).

We really will need the QM to way in on how long CVE war time construction will be though.
 
Military 8/8 Dice + 3 Free Dice + 2 AA Dice 250 R
-[] Strategic Area Defense Networks (3 Dice, 60 R) (2% chance)
-[] Wingman Drone Deployment 0/??? (3 Dice, 45 R) (??% chance)
-[] Neural Interface System Refits (Talons) 77/105 (1 Die, 25 R) (~100% chance)
-[] Frigate Shipyard 0/??? (1+AA Dice, 40 R) (median result 127 Progress, might maybe complete, depends on cost)
-[] Merchantman Carrier Conversions (High Commitment) 0/200 (3+AA Dice, 80 R) (95% chance)
Okay, so two points from Discord-one, Wingman drones are gonna be broken out into categories. Smallest is the Apollo, then nearly tice as big are Hammerheads, bigger Firehawks and the titanic Orca project at the top of the heap. They also cost 20R/ die.

Secondly, Frigate shipyards are few in number but BIG, 127 progress has no chance of completion, not even a double-nat100 can finish them (probably).
 
How big are the fleet carriers we are currently building then?
A US Navy Nimitz is 102,000 tons. Ours are likely to be bigger.

Escort carriers should probably only take 2 years at most to build and with a cheap battleship yard conversion we can get one set of carriers building alongside a set of frigates this turn and hit Wingmen. I don't see SADS as urgently needed and given that Steel Vanguard is still ongoing to some degree we can keep shoving Gideons launchers bac.
 
Do we need to get heavily into specifics? The Ground Forces confidence level is Extremely High. Their Confidence hit High in Q2 2059. In Q4 we deliver them more sensors and 3 more consumables factories, including Shell Plants which wasn't even listed as a priority. That was 9 dice spent on Ground Forces when their confidence was already at High. (Conceding that some of these projects also helped other divisions, so 5 of these dice were still well applied.)
Other than that, I'm not sure we strictly needed the Savannah Hub/Fleet. Although it may have contributed to Gideon being useless again. But it did use about ~5 dice.
Could include the Plasma Weapons development projects, but presumably we'll get some use out of them soon.

Meanwhile, the Navy has been saying that they were only just able to do their jobs and really needed new Carriers to avoid blockades since Q1 2058.
Point of order here: sensor suites are generic and greatly increase the viability of every branch, including the Navy. Ditto for most of the other consumables, although they are admittedly less beneficial to the swabbies. And while the Savannah hub was expensive, it also provides heavy firepower and forward basing that beefs up the southern wing of the pocket we stuck Gideon in.
 
It's -5 this phase, with the blurb from when we put a die into it indicating that, if GDI invested substantially in tiberium power, the PS cost is going to escalate rapidly.
So worry about possible escalation afterwards. Besides, that was a blurb on a bad roll. I fully expect the opposite. Once we prove we can build and use the plants safely, they'll lose the PS cost entirely.
This version takes into account the new information about light and conversion carriers, and also remembers the part where apparently we're getting a cost reduction on Nuuk to 15 R/die instead of 20 R/die, a very welcome easing of the budget.

Changes: I sacrificed my one die on Shell Plants and shifted Bureaucracy from self-review to Administrative Assistance to focus on a serious investment in both frigates and conversion carriers, with 95% confidence of getting the merchantman conversion carriers done this quarter. Frigate probability depends heavily on the yard cost, which we don't have. If it were a 100-point yard like the hydrofoils I'd be pretty confident. If it were a 200-point yard like the Governor conversions then there'd be almost no chance. If it's a 150-point yard project in between the two, there's some chance.

With extra Resources in hand from the Nuuk budgeting, I also took the liberty of turning the Porto railgun harvester factory die into a third Chicago Phase 4 die. If we're gonna actively try to wreck Giddyboy, at least we can take it seriously and move the project far enough along to have a reasonable chance of completion next turn...



[] Draft Plan Health Care for Robot and for Humans, Mk III

965/965 R (accounting for orbital cleanup)
7/7 Free dice

Infrastructure 6/6 Dice 100 R
-[] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 4+5) 232/550 (3 Dice, 60 R) (17% chance of Phase 5)
-[] Rail Network Construction Campaigns (Phase 3) 159/300 (2 Dice, 30 R) (84% chance; one die would not be enough)
-[] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 2) 28/160 (1 Die, 10 R) (18% chance)

Heavy Industry 5/5 Dice + 4 Free Dice 150 R
-[] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant (Phase 5+6) 232/600 (4 Dice, 80 R) (~100% chance Phase 5, 28% chance of Phase 6)
-[] Nuuk Heavy Robotics Foundry (Phase 3) 118/640 (4 Dice, 60 R) (4/6.5 median)
-[] Isolinear Chip Development (1 Die, 30 R) (??% chance)

Light and Chemical Industry 5/5 Dice 100 R
-[] Reykjavik Myomer Macrospinner (Phase 4) 378/640 (2 Dice, 40 R) (17% chance)
-[] Medical Supplies Factories 0/225 (3 Dice, 60 R) (60% chance)

Agriculture 4/4 Dice 50 R
-[] Freeze Dried Food Plants 73/200 (1 Die, 20 R) (13% chance)
-[] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 2+3) 3/280 (3 Dice, 30 R) (98% chance of Phase 2, 23% chance of Phase 3)

Tiberium 7/7 Dice 125 R
-[] Yellow Zone Tiberium Harvesting (Phase 7) 183/300 (2 Dice, 40 R) (97% chance)
-[] Chicago Planned City 3/600 (3 Dice, 60 R) (3/6.5 median)
-[] Railgun Harvester Factory (Dandong) 45/70 (1 Die, 10 R) (~100% chance)
-[] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 5+6) 63/200 (1 Die, 15 R) (Stage 5, 18% chance of Stage 6)

Orbital 6/6 Dice 110 R
-[] GDSS Enterprise (Phase 4) 456/765 (5 Dice, 100 R) (96.5% chance, median outcome 114/1535 to Phase 5)
-[] Orbital Cleanup (Stage 9) 41/85 (1 Die, 10 R) (98% chance, 13% chance of Stage 10)

Services 4/5 Dice 80 R
-[] Automatic Medical Assistants 0/300 (4 Dice, 80 R) (67% chance)

Military 8/8 Dice + 3 Free Dice + 2 AA Dice 250 R
-[] Strategic Area Defense Networks (3 Dice, 60 R) (2% chance)
-[] Wingman Drone Deployment 0/??? (3 Dice, 45 R) (??% chance)
-[] Neural Interface System Refits (Talons) 77/105 (1 Die, 25 R) (~100% chance)
-[] Frigate Shipyard 0/??? (1+AA Dice, 40 R) (median result 127 Progress, might maybe complete, depends on cost)
-[] Merchantman Carrier Conversions (High Commitment) 0/200 (3+AA Dice, 80 R) (95% chance)

Bureaucracy 4/4 Dice
-[] Administrative Assistance x2 (4 Dice)

VERY CONSERVATIVE ENERGY BUDGET
+9 (Existing Surplus) + 16 (Fusion Phase 5)
-1 (Medical Supplies) -1 (Freeze Drying) -2 (Dandong) -2 (AMA) -4 (Drone factory) -6 (Frigate yard)

RESULT: Back to +9 surplus and in a good position to do the sixth phase of fusion plants in 2060Q3.
Probably no way to make it work this turn, but since we are starting to spin up Railgun Harvesters, how are you feeling about Railgun Munitions? There's a good synergy there at least.
 
I sacrificed my one die on Shell Plants and shifted Bureaucracy from self-review to Administrative Assistance to focus on a serious investment in both frigates and conversion carriers, with 95% confidence of getting the merchantman conversion carriers done this quarter.

Admin Assistance is better on projects that are already near completion such as Neural Interface System Refits (Talons) (94%) or Railgun Harvester Factories (Dandong) (90%).
 
So worry about possible escalation afterwards. Besides, that was a blurb on a bad roll. I fully expect the opposite. Once we prove we can build and use the plants safely, they'll lose the PS cost entirely.

Ithillid has stated repeatedly, in thread, that GDI really, really doesn't want to risk spreading tiberium in any way. Tiberium power leaves dangerous byproducts out of the tiberium to energy conversion and, like refineries, is expected to be vulnerable to cataclysm missiles and sabotage. No, the political cost of rolling out tiberium power phases won't be static, and it won't decrease. The only question is how quickly it gets worse.
 
Some changes from Chicago, Fusion And Healthy Harvesters, shifted the AA die from Harvester Factories (Dandong) to Neural Interface Refits (Talons) as the latter is 4% more likely to complete with an AA die, additionally pulled a die out of GZ Intensification to replace the AA die. In military, updated dice based on new info on the Carrier Yards. Also estimate of Wingman RpD cost revised to 15 instead of 20 as that is the RpD cost of the Apollo Factories. Note that those dice will likely be spread across multiple factories if they are as Progress cheap as the Apollos as well. Currently have 3 dice on Frigate Yards which is hopefully enough for one yard, if it is not, the Railgun Munitions die can be shifted and the R scrounged from moving a die from YZ Fortress Towns to BZ Apartments.

[ ] Draft Plan Chicago, Carrier Conversions And Healthy Harvesters
-[ ] Infrastructure 6/6 90R
--[ ] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 4): 3 dice 60R 100% (17% Phase 5)
--[ ] Rail Network Construction Campaigns (Phase 3): 2 dice 30R 84%
--[ ] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 2): 1 dice 10R 18%
-[ ] Heavy Industry 5/5 155R 3 Free Dice
--[ ] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant (Phase 5): 4 dice 80R 100% (28% Phase 6)
--[ ] Nuuk Heavy Robotics Foundry (Phase 3): 3 dice 45R 3/6.5 median
--[ ] Isolinear Chip Development: 1 die 30R? ??
-[ ] Light And Chemical Industry 5/5 100R
--[ ] Reykjavik Myomer Macrospinner (Phase 4): 2 dice 40R 17%
--[ ] Medical Supplies Factories: 3 die 60R 60%
-[ ] Agriculture 4/4 50R
--[ ] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 2): 3 dice 30R 98% (23% Phase 3)
--[ ] Freeze Dried Food Plants: 1 die 20R 13%
-[ ] Tiberium 7/7 115R
--[ ] Yellow Zone Tiberium Harvesting (Phase 7): 2 dice 40R 97%
--[ ] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 5): 1 die 15R 100% (18% Stage 6)
--[ ] Railgun Harvester Factories (Dandong): 1 die 10R 100%
--[ ] Railgun Harvester Factories (Porto): 1 die 10R 85%
--[ ] Chicago Planned City (Phase 4): 2 dice 40R 2/6.5 median
-[ ] Orbital 6/6 110R
--[ ] GDSS Enterprise (Phase 4): 5 dice 100R 96%
--[ ] Orbital Cleanup (Stage 9): 1 die 10R 98% (13% Stage 9+10)
-[ ] Services 5/5 95R
--[ ] Automatic Medical Assistants: 4 dice 80R 67%
--[ ] Hallucinogen Development: 1 die 15R 88%
-[ ] Military 8/8 240R 4 Free Dice 1 Administrative Assistance
--[ ] Railgun Munitions Development: 1 die 10R 87%
--[ ] Shark Class Frigate Deployment: 3 dice 60R? ??
--[ ] Wingman Drone Deployment: 3 dice 45R? ??
--[ ] Escort Carrier Shipyards (Battleship Yards): 1 die 20R 22%
--[ ] Merchantman Carrier Conversions (High Commitments): 4 dice 80R 98%
--[ ] Neural Interface System Refits (Talons): 1 die 25R 94% Administrative Assistance
-[ ] Bureaucracy 4/4
--[ ] Administrative Assistance 2 dice (Neural Interface System Refits (Talons))
--[ ] Security Review Bureaucracy 2 dice 90%

Free Dice 7/7
R 965/935 + 30 Reserve
 
Ithillid has stated repeatedly, in thread, that GDI really, really doesn't want to risk spreading tiberium in any way. Tiberium power leaves dangerous byproducts out of the tiberium to energy conversion and, like refineries, is expected to be vulnerable to cataclysm missiles and sabotage. No, the political cost of rolling out tiberium power phases won't be static, and it won't decrease. The only question is how quickly it gets worse.
Hogwash. Tiberium is already everywhere, that's the problem. Even in the Blue Zones it isn't gone, it's just far enough underground most people don't think about it, and it still breaks the surface from time to time. Tiberium is brought in for refining as a daily necessity. In just this update it was noted that they needed to truck in huge amounts of Tiberium up north for the Nuuk Robotics Plant. A Liquid Tiberium plant is not that much of a greater risk. And it's not like we don't already have huge stretchs of empty land to put them on.

The risk of a cataclysm weapons is way overblown. Just this turn Giddon was ready to turn Chicago green, just with dumb rockets. They don't need to hit a particular building to turn everything into death rocks.

We have the technology, we need the energy, let's just do it and see if the PS cost is really so steep we can't afford it.
 
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