Assuming the alloy project cost reduction of 25% applies to all of them then we would be saving: 373 * .25 - 36 = 57 dice.
I think you're severely over-simplifying here. These are average dice costs - not absolute ones. A lot of projects are going to still cost the same (or more) nunber of dice due to random variance. And the 25% reduction is going to save dice far less often for smaller projects than for bigger ones.

Besides, I don't believe we even can afford to three-turn Alloys. Remember, we can't use free dice (outside Tib) unless we activate all of our other dice first. A theoretical maximum Alloy plan is impossible since we can't afford to activate that many 40R HI and Free dice while also activating all our normal dice too.
 
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[X] Plan Life in Space

[X] Plan: Yo Dawg I Heard You Like Space
[X] Plan SPAAAACE! stations v2
[X] Plan Has Anybody Seen My Wingman?
[X] Plan: Yo Dawg I Heard You Like Space (and Cybernetics)
[X] Plan: New Steel, New Plants, New Stations v2
 
I suspect that pulling a Jeremy Clarkson and shoving moar powerrrr! at it solves a lot of range related purposes, and we don't need to be able to mass blam stealth fields from long range. Even if we're only able to blam a field per continent per day, that's a critically compromised position that can be leveled at will by GDI at this point. Even more so once we roll out orbital missile drop pods; blam the field, take a few pictures, check the coordinates. Then load them up and drop a pod or three to make the place disappear beneath the barrage.

GDI has the lift capacity for it.

And if we do manage to create a satellite of 200 tons or less that can blam a stealth field, and can mass produce it at a low cost, whyever not?
From what I recall, the projected range for the disruptors the current project would develop is about a kilometer. (Shorter than our improved sensors, at least, which IIRC are creeping down from ~10km.) Why are we even talking about disruption from orbit as possible? Even if it were possible, that would probably be a full space station just to power it, and popping one Specter's stealth field doesn't seem worth it.
Now while in general the Alloy Foundries are so good that it wold be highly detrimental to not bring them online asap, the main issue is not if they are worth it, which I believe I have shown they are, but if they will help in Orbital, because while in every other category we can afford to not invest free dice in them while the Alloy Foundries are rolled out, Orbital is the category where we will need Free dice investment, and delaying that investment could lead to significant issues if the Alloy Foundries do not apply the bonus to the Stations.
From what I recall being said about it, the answer is that they will affect stations, but not at the full discount.
 
Hm. @doruma1920

I note that given that your analysis makes it clear that we have far more "wiggle room" in Infrastructure than in Tiberium, your prediction that we may complete Karachi entirely with Tiberium dice may prove incorrect.

The relative difference in dice bonus is very narrow now, and we have so much else we could profitably do with Tiberium. I think it likely we'll try to slam out the project with a roughly 50/50 blend of the two dice types, personally.

Yes, I expect the dice for Karachi to be split between Infrastructure and Tiberium, I even agree its probably going to be split pretty evenly, though we are likely to put any Free dice on Karachi in Tiberium. That will probably be a change for the Q3 preliminary.

It bears noting that (and this is not a criticism) your accounting is likely to change markedly if we pursue projects such as Aberdeen, the alloy foundries, or indeed any number of things that consume Energy. Your accounting also makes no allowance for the need to deal with the impending end of life cycle issues of the first generation fusion reactions.

The accounting for Energy is a little iffy in both directions as it both assumes the DEA will be taken this turn (which none of the leading plans currently do) for the dice count and will be taken on Q4 2065 for the Energy count, so the accounting is a little disingenuous.

As I have said previously these analyses are to get a picture for the slack available in our dice and our economy, projected out for the rest of the Plan. Recognition that the Energy situation is on a knifes edge despite our current surplus is a good thing. As for the Fusion refit timeline, I would have to think about how to incorporate it, the only early fusion reactors that are likely to need a refit before the end of the Plan are the various prototype V0.5 Reactors completed before the current CCF design, I'd have to double check how much Energy they'd produced, something also for the Q3 preliminary.

What are your thoughts on doing the Heavy Industry AEVA? I would think it is likely to have a useful net impact.

If we were to do the HI AEVA I would do it this turn.

Currently our required projects in HI are:
-North Boston Chip Fabricator Phase 5: 36/2400
-Personal Electric Vehicle Plants: 112/300

There is also a lot of good reasons to complete the U-Series Alloy Foundries Phase 1-6: 0/3600
This means a total progress cost of 2400-36+300-112+3600=6152 Progress total

With an average die roll of 50.5+33=83.5 that is ~76.67 dice (ignoring the Alloy Foundries cost reduction for now)
With AEVAs that is 50.5+33+3=86.5, or ~71.12 dice (again ignoring the Alloy Foundries cost reduction)

Or a saving of ~2.55 dice. Which seems pretty good to me. It will only get better with Nuuk, Aberdeen, and ICCF. The last because I assume we are going to be doing a whole lot of Fusion eventually.

So the real question is can we afford to have 1 turn of free dice off of space and instead on alloy to test this?

Yes, we could. However, @Derpmind has a good point in that it would be difficult, if not impossible, to find the R to activate all of our dice (a Plan commitment) and execute a maximum Alloy Foundry rush. There are some possible plans that deliberately waste dice on over completing R cheap projects that may give allow a max alloy investment, but that is kind of counter productive to waste dice to save dice. However that is not necessary to get enough dice to complete the first phase. I don't think there is a plan that invests more then 7 dice into the Alloy Foundries (enough for a 50% chance of Phase 1 completion). And most of the plans that do also have some investment in Orbital. So to answer your question, yes we certainly can afford to not go maximum Orbital to allow for spooling up the Alloy Foundries.

I think you're severely over-simplifying here. These are average dice costs - not absolute ones. A lot of projects are going to still cost the same (or more) nunber of dice due to random variance. And the 25% reduction is going to save dice far less often for smaller projects than for bigger ones.

Yes I am, but I have to simplify somewhere or the analysis would end up being several pages long. The analysis given is very generous to the Alloy Foundries I admit, but even discounting the smaller projects, it will still save a ridiculous amount of dice. What is really boosting the number of dice saved is the assumption that it will apply to both the various Tiberium projects and to the Orbital construction. It is reasonable that it would apply to both, but it isn't pure construction for the Tiberium and well the question of if it applies to Orbital is the cruz of the issue.

Besides, I don't believe we even can afford to three-turn Alloys. Remember, we can't use free dice (outside Tib) unless we activate all of our other dice first. A theoretical maximum Alloy plan is impossible since we can't afford to activate that many 40R HI and Free dice while also activating all our normal dice too.

You are absolutely correct. The lowest plan I could come up with that wasn't massively over investing in R cheap projects was 60 R over budget.

From what I recall being said about it, the answer is that they will affect stations, but not at the full discount.

That is the issue. If not at the full discount at what percentage.
 
In the past (such as with the Lunar Mines) Projects that apply discounts do not apply hidden discounts to the future phases of the projects, the discounts are shown by the decreasing progress cost for the future phases of the project.
True. But in this particular case, I think it is due to alloys only discounting remaining progress on a project (when they do discount at all). Or in other words, I think that the discount will apply to itself, and the progress listed is to discourage us from putting in many more dice than we need to complete a phase.
 
I suspect that pulling a Jeremy Clarkson and shoving moar powerrrr! at it solves a lot of range related purposes, and we don't need to be able to mass blam stealth fields from long range. Even if we're only able to blam a field per continent per day, that's a critically compromised position that can be leveled at will by GDI at this point. Even more so once we roll out orbital missile drop pods; blam the field, take a few pictures, check the coordinates. Then load them up and drop a pod or three to make the place disappear beneath the barrage.

GDI has the lift capacity for it.

And if we do manage to create a satellite of 200 tons or less that can blam a stealth field, and can mass produce it at a low cost, whyever not?
My argument is not that I'm sure we can't build stealth disruptor satellites capable of blamming Nod stealth fields to useful good effect from orbit altitude. And it surely isn't that such satellites would be useless if they were built.

But do not know. There may be design reasons why the 'blam' effect cannot penetrate more than a few kilometers of atmosphere under any circumstances. Or perhaps because it's a resonance effect, the power required to blam a stealth field may scale with the fourth power of the distance between the generator and the stealth field in question. Or perhaps the thing is so colossally power-intensive that it requires several hundred tons of powerpack and supporting equipment, suitable for fixed field installations but requiring an entirely separate and dedicated platform that straddles the line between "station" and "satellite" and so cannot be integrated simply with the LOSS constellation because it is properly a different thing. Or perhaps overcoming one or more of these limitations will take years of further development, such that delaying launch of the LOSS constellation until stealth disruptor satellites are ready becomes a case of "the perfect is the enemy of the good."

The point here is not that the beautiful dream of orbital stealth-blamming you have presented is somehow bad. It is that there are many reasons why artificially delaying LOSS until this technology becomes available could be counterproductive.

I suppose that the local and integrated facilities suited to rolling out bodily implants that need neural work are of 'marginal' importance to any project meant to provide large sections of our populations with such implants, yes.
Given that demand for the new implants is not expected to be overwhelmingly high at first, and that the procedures involved are not emergency surgery, and that the vast majority of our population is well served by the existing hospital facilities, and that the new cities tend to be within at most a few hundred kilometers of existing older facilities because the Blue Zones mostly just aren't that big...

Look, I'm not saying they don't matter at all, but I'd still rather at least begin to make the ocular implants available, even if it means specifically delaying one turn on the hospitals.

If I thought there were a genuine crisis of care, as opposed to one that parts of the voter base has decided logically must exist even when the QM commentary indicates otherwise, I would be making the hospitals my top priority. As it is, I'm making the blind citizens in particular my top priority.

... Do we need all drones finished this quarter, or can we be confident that the military can carry the day ably enough with the equipment already slated to be done rolling out when we start on Karachi?
I'm hoping we can at least deploy specifically Phase 1 of the Orca drones. I think that's the specific sub-project most likely to impact our naval aviation performance, and naval aviation is part of overall naval performance, the sole and single area in which I lack total confidence in our military.

Unfortunately, naval performance is virtually indispensable for Karachi to be a success, so it is the one thing really driving and motivating action choices, as opposed to "fuckit, things are good enough, do what we'd have done anyway." Well, with the possible exception of the GD-3.

Yes, I expect the dice for Karachi to be split between Infrastructure and Tiberium, I even agree its probably going to be split pretty evenly, though we are likely to put any Free dice on Karachi in Tiberium. That will probably be a change for the Q3 preliminary.
Given that we can finish off Karachi in 2-3 turns without spending any Free dice at all, and we have no other projects in either area that are so critical they're likely to prevent us from investing heavily in Karachi during the core timeframe of our work on it... I don't see why we'd even bother to spend Free dice on Karachi unless we strongly desire to do so.

As I have said previously these analyses are to get a picture for the slack available in our dice and our economy, projected out for the rest of the Plan. Recognition that the Energy situation is on a knifes edge despite our current surplus is a good thing. As for the Fusion refit timeline, I would have to think about how to incorporate it, the only early fusion reactors that are likely to need a refit before the end of the Plan are the various prototype V0.5 Reactors completed before the current CCF design, I'd have to double check how much Energy they'd produced, something also for the Q3 preliminary.
I think that to avoid the risk of sudden disasters and abrupt blackouts, we'll need to start the refurbishment in the current Plan.

The progression of actual fusion plants was something like

Prototype (+1 Energy)
Peaker Plants (+4 Energy)
Synchronized Set of Peaker Plants (+8 Energy)
Continuous Cycle Plants (+16 Energy)

But I'm not sure the peaker plants even have the same problem the continuous cycle ones do, since by design the peaker plants spend most of their day being shut down and examined for problems. The thing is that I gather that the youngest continuous cycle plants are expected to start failing in, oh, 2066... and we do NOT want to be only beginning the project to overhaul/replace them in 2065 under those conditions. The engineers' estimates might have turned out to be optimistic, after all, and it would only take one or two disastrous failures to make us look very stupid for delaying the overhauls.

Remember that time we accidentally walked into a 2/3 chance of starting a nuclear war with Nod because we took one more phase of Yellow Zone Harvesting and assumed it was safe because we accepted intelligence reports that turned out to have misjudged Nod?

I don't want any repeats of that. Better safe than sorry.

You are absolutely correct. The lowest plan I could come up with that wasn't massively over investing in R cheap projects was 60 R over budget.
Hm. It would not be a violation of my oath to craft no plans for this vote to try that as a thought experiment... hm.

I'm going to assume we have 1050+60 R to work with, on the assumption that we complete two stages of vein mining (a likely prediction for the current leading plans) and have at it in a bit. :)
 
@doruma1920

I think that with sufficient creative abuse of some of our options, we could just get to a twelve-die meme plan on foundries while still taking actions that are all oriented towards Plan goals or at least genuinely constructive and desirable.

This is predicated on the currently leading plan, Life in Space, winning, and is an attempt to maximize dice spending on alloy foundries in a notional Q3 follow-on. With the caveat that AA and E dice are not used, because of extreme inefficiency.

I assume an income stream of 1050 R plus 60 R from new vein mines constructed during 2062Q2. Projects highly likely to complete under Life in Space are assumed to have completed; other projects, not.

Main constraint is activating all dice, without which we cannot spend Free dice on the foundries. I am also at least TRYING not to outright waste dice on projects that are not required or merited...

This is not a plan for this turn.

Notional 2062Q3 Alloy Foundry Meme Plan
- Infrastructure (5/5, 40 R)
-- Postwar Housing Refits (5 dice, 50 R)
-- Security Review
- Heavy Industry (5/5 + 7 Free dice, ___ R)
-- Alloy Foundries (__ dice, ___ R)
- Light Industry (5/5, 90 R)
-- Furniture Plants (1 die, 10 R)
-- Reykjavik or Nanotubes (4 dice, 80 R)
- Agriculture (6/6, 60 R)
-- BZ Aquaponics (6 dice, 60 R)
- Tiberium (7/7, 120 R)
-- Vein mines (6 dice, 120 R)
-- Security Review
- Orbital (7/7, 140 R)
-- Some Space Station (7 dice, 140 R)
- Services (5/5, 60 R)
-- -1 die for AEVA
-- Security Review
-- Service AEVA (3 dice, 60 R)
- Military (8/8, 120 R)
-- Railgun Munitions (2 dice, 20 R)
-- LOSS Constellations (2 dice, 20 R)
-- Orca Wingmen (3 dice, 60 R)
-- Talons Project (1 die, 20 R)
- Bureaucracy (4/4)
-- Make Political Promises/Interdep. Favors (1 die)
-- Tiberium Security Review (1 die)
-- Infrastructure Security Review (1 die)
-- Services Security Review (1 die)

Budget: 40+90+60+120+140+60+120+(foundry expenses)
630 + (foundry expenses)
With a budget of 1110 R, that leaves exactly 480 R... JUST enough for twelve Foundry dice.

It may be possible to scrape a little lower than this, but this is... well, let's just say it's a tough row to hoe.
 
To evaluate this:
First, Infrastructure has 5 dice, you only seem to be spending 4 of them (Urban metros seems to be using 2 free dice, not 1 Infra and 1 Free die) Housing Refits with 1 die costs 10R
Improved CCF would be 40R, and 75% chance of completion, also, you are spending 6 dice on HI, and we only have 5, but you haven't marked down any free dice spending. PEV plants at 2 dice are 20R and 45%
For Reykjavik, that would be a 0% chance of completion.
For formatting purposes, Agriculture Mechanization needs another dash in front of it, and also has a completion of 12% at 2 dice. Kudzu with 2 dice is 20R, 86%
Columbia at 9 dice would cost 180R, and have a 100% completion chance for phases 1+2+3. Orbital Cleanup with 1 die costs 10R, and has a 96% chance to complete Stage 11.
Kamisuwa would be 40R, and 4%
Orcas at 4 dice are 80R and 85%.
You don't have a military die dedicated to the Military Security review, so that doesn't work.

Total cost: 1030R, Free dice should be 1 on Infra, 1 on HI, 3 on Orbital, 1 on Services, and 1 on military.
However, the security review on military is invalid, since there is no Military die assigned to it.
As it currently is, not a valid plan.
That issue has already been mentioned to Nottheunmaker, and they said they were going to fix it. Not sure if everything's caught up yet.
I have made all the fixes I think. Thank you for your help!
...that is an absolutely horrifying concept, why would you put that out there?
Because I'm an absolutely horrifying person.
 
It's funny ya know, that 'Plan Life In Space' is actually only middling to fair in terms of actual station construction.
 
It's funny ya know, that 'Plan Life In Space' is actually only middling to fair in terms of actual station construction.
Since I think it would be a Bad Idea to deliberately postpone Orbital Cleanup until 2066 or later, I figure we're going to have to do it sooner or later. So I consider dice spent on that to be a good investment, especially given that the +Resource and +5 Political Support gains, while small, aren't nothing.

As a voter looking for some unusual things in a plan, though, I take what I can get and hope for the best.
 
[X] Plan Life in Space
[X] Plan Life and Fusion in Space
 
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[X] Foot off the Mining Pedal Q2 2062
[X] Plan Karachi Wingmen

Adding an approval vote for Karachi Wingmen, since it does most of what I want, and I suppose that the laser refits can afford being delayed one quarter.
 
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