Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition
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- He/Him
No, we explicitly didn't run out of shells in St Petersberg. This was called out in the post itself. And Tubes are a bigger impact on shell availability than any single shell plant - they are a qualitative improvement to our supply situation. They absolutely will allow building up stockpiles faster, and will start doing so immediately.
The shell lobby in this thread is huge. You seriously do not have to worry for shell plants' completion - we're perfectly capable of seeing how much investment it needs based on a prior turn's investment, we have a whole probabilities sheet for it and everything. We need them for Karachi, which pretty much all the big names in the thread are for - we need them to repel Gideon, we need them for a lot. This is not a project that will be left twisting in the wind, especially not when they're so cheap.
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If you're going to play the 'buy time' card, it would behoove you to take one of the more efficient HI projects that need that time instead of Heavy Industrial Sectors.
HIS is a tactile admission that we need cap goods, not in a year or a year and a half, but within two quarters. It is an admission that we don't have a year to get all our ducks in a row. If you are so confident that you can buy that much time, why not Nuuks or Tokyo instead?
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To answer your question directly: Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
But to talk about the ACTUAL reason we swapped out to HIS - which, I would note, is in plan Derpy as well - it's to speed up the timeline on Factory Refits, which in turn speeds up the timeline consumables production and the Karachi sprint, which in turn gets us a bundle of logistics and the ability to harass the OTHER big contender for the brotherhood bowl in India...
Like, this is the snowball that gets us out of the stockpile hole we're in right now. I'm buying time for that AND trying to get us out of the hole as fast as we can. Doing one is not an admission that the other is not necessary.
We have to fix our situation fast, AND we have to slow down Nod from exploiting that situation.
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The big reason we're lagging on Factory Refits and every other big Military project is continuous Capital Goods poverty--of which HIS gives us one quick medium-sized shot instead of taking the time to really open the taps.
And you don't have to pick between some Cap Goods now and more Cap Goods later--Tokyo will quite happily give you both with reasonable investment.
Picking HIS gives us a short-term boost, with which, yes, we can get Factory Refits done. It does nothing for the wider Capital Goods drought, and is only really helpful because we expect to need those Refits now.
"Fortifies GDI presence in the Green Zones and gives people hope" is...every turn. I would argue that the single most important policy of Doctor Granger's directorship was outreach to Green Zones, and Litvinov has doubled down on that policy.
I approve of having our primary emphasis be hearts and minds, but at some point we need to put some effort into strengthening our military options. As far as I can recall, we haven't initiated a single military offensive all game. Yes, hearts and minds is a strategic offensive, and I agree with that emphasis, but our military options are frankly unimpressive. We have detailed intelligence on Krukov's factories, we know that they're building an ominously named project that consumes vast quantities of resources, and we still can't hit them. That's a problem.
Getting Green Zone Teacher Colleges later is okay if it means that Krukov won't get to unleash his new superpower at a time and place of his choosing.
There's no contradiction here. Stahl could be very very dangerous as the First Warlord, but right now he doesn't have the status to claim the position of First Warlord. High impact doesn't matter when the risk is this low.
Stahl is good at military operations, but he is explicitly bad at Nod politics. It doesn't matter how qualified he is if he can't convince his peers to go along.
While it was not a military success, Krukov gained political support from his attack on St. Petersburg. If he's able to follow up with his mysterious "Project", he may gain enough status to make himself first among equals.
We don't want that. Cut the tallest poppy, and let the warlords continue to squabble among themselves.
I'll be honest, I'm not good at mechanics and I don't understand many of the details. The reason I backed Steel Chair is that there's some kind of major industrial project brewing in the Urals, and we don't want to find out the hard way.
What is your plan to prevent Krukov from coming back with some kind of Nod superweapon at his convenience?
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Okay, let's say you're right.
How is that relevant to the current vote? None of the leading plans do what you're suggesting. They either invest in HI sectors or don't invest in getting capital goods at all.
If you just want to talk about underlying reasons for preferring HI beyond what I've stated, I'm frankly the wrong person to ask anyways - I was following the lead of other people working on the capital goods problem. Mostly though, I just don't see the point in burying discussion of the vote under discussion that isn't relevant to the outcome.
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- Location
- New York
[X] Plan Derpy Hitting Krukov With A Steel Chair Edition
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Actually, I take it back - this is clear cut enough that I can speak to easily. Tokyo is a terrible substitute for HI sectors, it takes 875 progress to provide 8 capgoods while HI sectors does it in 500, and wartime factory refits needs all 8. That would push back Karachi by half a year or more, and keep us in the military dice poverty cycle for longer.
No thanks.
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Not to sacrifice general war preparation on the altar of a satisfying retaliation.
Nothing Krukov will come up with will change the fundamental calculus that, come the war, NOD must win from the onset, or they'll get steam-rolled. And Krukov cannot do that for NOD, not as he is.
Losing the Finland arcology will hurt. Losing the War of the Seas will lose us the war.
Everything I've pushed before and now--Fortress Towns, Aquaponics, Food Stockpiles, ICS--has been centered around surviving that initial sucker punch, and it keeps being pushed back in favor of Philadelphia, in favor of the next wunderwaffe, in favor of appeasing the Steel Talons, in favor of coffee.
And believe me, I'm not happy with that. At all. We should be working on the big HI projects, now, because if we don't we'll still be struggling with it in the middle of the war.
But I guess we're rather stuck with it now, are we?
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It doesn't take longer if you give it a little more dice.
As I've already said, we can absolutely have Tokyo 2+3 done before Q1 2060 if we gave one free die to HI starting this turn, and we would get additional Cap Goods afterward. With HIS, we would be back to square one after Factory Refits.
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It takes an average of 5.28 more dice, in a category that natively only has 4 per turn. It is not remotely credible to say we can get it just as fast as HI sectors, and any surge of free dice that could make it happen would also speed up HI Sectors.
Keep in mind as well, that the two categories gobbling up our free dice are Military and Orbital. We are dice limited for getting more capgoods, and the sooner we get more dice (like from say, Factory Refits), the faster we can get more capgoods - and after phase 3 of tokyo, its next phase takes 1000 progress - so the thing we'd be doing next afterwards for more capgoods is HI sectors anyways unless we just decide to take a drought of capgoods right after spending all of them. Tokyo 4 is always going to happen after HI-sectors, so unlocking it sooner isn't a meaningful benefit.
Resolving our bottlenecks sooner compounds. If we weren't as dice limited it might be otherwise, but as-is Tokyo-first is simply not as good for long haul capgoods production as HI-first despite Tokyo being resource-cheaper.
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It takes fifteen dice, maximum, vs ten dice for HIS. The absolutely worse that can happen is that we complete Tokyo 2 in Q2, and Tokyo 3 in Q4, and an additional 12 Capital Goods sometime in 2060.
VS. HIS, we get 8 Capital Goods in Q2, and then you're back to square one, because there are no follow-up phases. Free dice does not help you here.
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Yes it does - because then we'd have the first three phases of Tokyo, and we'd have philly 5, and we'd have warfactory refits, and are at that point no longer nearly as dice limited which is the main reason we're not doing it now. At that point, we'd legitimately be able to do Tokyo 1-3 as fast or faster than we can do HI sectors now.
That said, I'd prefer if this continue in PM at this point because all it's doing is burying discussion relevant to the vote.
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- Location
- The Underdark
@Darkandus you are welcome to roll at any time.
We didn't run out of shells because the artillery wasn't firing at maximum rate. Just being pedantic.
(We absolutely could have used more shells there, but we also didn't run out.
Tokyo is inferior to Nuuk in terms of getting Capital Goods. The question is, do we want to do BZ HI sectors for "enough to finish Military Factory Refits now", or wait a couple more turns to get Nuuk up to Phase 3? Given the narrative and mechanical bonuses of the factory refits, I choose the first. Tokyo is not in the running, really. It would require Tokyo level 4 to give the same number of Capital Goods as Nuuk 3.
Nope, Still blue zone growth.
No. Blue Zones grew by .1% (eating Green Zone), and Red Zones shrunk by .4% (being eaten by Yellow Zones).
Edit: numbers subject to change due to project completion.
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Only two hours left - will no-one else dramatically enter to change the outcome?
With a steel chair, perhaps? Even the author of the leading plan has chosen to take up this noble weapon.
With a steel chair, perhaps? Even the author of the leading plan has chosen to take up this noble weapon.
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- Location
- Mobile, Alabama
Nod: No GDI you can't keep pushing back on Tiberium.
Darkandus: Haha. Abatement goes burr.
Darkandus: Haha. Abatement goes burr.
- Pronouns
- He/It/Argh!
The thing with Tokyo and Nuuk, is that while they take about a turn longer to produce the same Capital Goods as the HIS, they get even better with further investment. Whereas, for HIS, you then have to start Tokyo/Nuuk and get over the build up phase first. And we will be doing further investment. We need way more than 8 Capitol Goods.
All phases of Tokyo gives 44 Capitol Goods over 3875 progress. ~88 progress per Capitol Good.
This is still more than HIS with its 62.5 progress per Capitol Good. However, HIS also has increased cost per dice, and less Capitol Goods per Energy used. So you pay quite a lot for the 'Capitol Goods now' thing.
HIS will cost about 25Rx7 dice to complete, plus 20Rx3 dice to pay for the Energy. So 235R. 650 equivalent progress needed. ~81 equivalent progress per Capitol Good. 29.375R per Capitol Good.
Tokyo 1-5 only takes 12 Energy. 15Rx55 dice to complete, plus 20Rx5 dice to pay for the Energy. So 925R. 4100 equivalent progress needed. ~93 equivalent progress per Capitol Good. 21.02R per Capitol Good.
So Tokyo is a little bit slower, but almost a third cheaper that HIS for Capitol Goods. But Tokyo 1-5 also produces 44 Consumer Goods.
What about Nuuk?
Nuuk 1-3 is 20 Capitol Goods and 12 Energy cost. 20Rx16 dice to complete, plus 20Rx5 dice to pay for the Energy. So 410R. 1345 equivalent progress needed. ~67 equivalent progress per Capitol Good. 20.5R per Capitol Good.
So if we want more than 8 Capitol Goods, and we do, then Nuuk is faster and cheaper than HIS.
And that doesn't even account for Nuuk 4 or 5...
Nuuk 1-5 is 116 Capitol Goods and 36 Energy cost. 4960 progress needed for the Foundry. 675 for the CCF. 5635 equivalent progress needed. 20Rx70 dice to complete, plus 20Rx10 for the Energy. So 1600R. ~46.5 equivalent progress per Capitol Good. ~13.9R per Capitol Good.
So almost twice as fast as HIS at long term Capitol Goods, and half the price. Though admittedly would mean a concerted effort for at least 3 years.
So in summary, we could go for HIS and get 8 Capitol Goods in a rush. But for that same investment, we could also be over halfway to Nuuk 3. (Or a quarter of the way towards Tokyo 5, with a pile of R left over.)
Arguments for HIS seem to overlook that we need to do more than just WFR, and by getting HIS first, we are setting ourselves up for a year wait before more Capitol Goods become available.
So do you want 8 Capitol Goods in 2 quarters, followed by a 4 quarter wait for another 20, or do you want 20 Capitol Goods after one year and then another ~30 Capitol Goods a year later?
I want 8 Capitol Goods in 2 quarters as we will get 1-2 extra military dice then making it easier to put free dice on HI.