Crud... Maretonia under a coup, it's... likely? a Unicorn one, the questions is of course where the pegasi are in all this. Are they supporting the coup, or are they forming their own faction in the civil war.
 
My guess for the reasoning of the coup is that Queen Mareia's intervention into her nobles squabbles was the straw that broke the camel's back. She's a monarch who has been trying to centralise power to the throne in order to remove the feudal system of bargaining with noble families, who act in self-destructive ways to the interests of her rule, and make Maretonia a nation-state rather than just a kingdom.

Unfortunately, centralising power in a system of political intrigue required it to be subtle and gradual to avoid attention. For a time there was, but then the Griffons turned up and scared all the nobles by stealing their property. So they clamour for war to teach those savage birds a lesson, Queen Mareia ignores them. They ask to lead border raids, she forbids them. They get into the usual noble shadow games, she sends in the Royal Guard and makes an example of a few of them. She's gotten too big for her horseshoes, so she has to go.

If Maretonia is anything like a Rome-expy, it probably was just them bribing her own guards to kill her and then they auctioned off the throne (that actually happened in Roman history). My guess is we're facing either Olive Branch who acts as a figurehead for the noble families or a militant unicorn who wants a war with the Griffons to unite the nation.
 
Meh, coups and civil wars alike are messy. In that aspect, we would have less to worry about with a direct invasion than with the Sombra issue, so it's possible that we might not have great need of the defensive line if we seize this opportunity in the correct way. That correct way could be further intrigue, or it could be through direct military action. Either way, domestic unrest is unlikely to have them be a unified threat. If they are a unified threat, we can simply make them disunified.
Yes, while they are disunited and thus can't exactly order everyone to attack, that also means they can't order everyone to not attack.
 
Turn 24 Rumor Mill
Baby Boomers: The wave of children born in the aftermath of Discord's defeat and the return of organized society have finally begun to reach adulthood, changing society with their every action as they seek out jobs and homes of their own. Distinguished from their elders by more than their youth, this newest generation has already become renowned for its optimism, genuinely believing that the world can and will improve with time, as well as their willingness to embrace changes in society and life that their parents would be more hesitant to accept immediately. No doubt that these youngsters will have a great effect upon the shape of the Empire in the days and years to come.

Magic versus Machinery: It is no surprise that your people have learned to put their faith in the reliability of machines. From the humble oil lamps that illuminate thousands of homes to the cannons and flame-throwers of the Imperial Arsenal and even the mighty steam engines of the soon-to be completed rail lines, technology has defined the lives of your subjects in recent years, each day seeming to bring new innovations that change the way people live and work. But contact with foreign cultures has introduced your people to magic, and the benefits thereof. And while the majority of your people are incapable of utilizing magic themselves, save for the rare and expensive enchanted object, that doesn't stop them from being fascinated with the concept, a fascination that has only grown with the addition of magical advisors to the Imperial Court and the recent string of Hippogriff births, the young hybrids already showing signs of juvenile magic. The debate over the merits of magic versus technology now rages everywhere from the taprooms of bars to the classrooms of the Crystal University, debates that you don't expect to end anytime soon.

A Season of Sickness: Concern and fear spreads across the Empire as a particularly virulent strain of Feather Flu sweeps through the population. Outbreaks of respiratory illness are not uncommon, and cases are often treated as more of a nuisance than a threat to life, but this year's strain of influenza has a higher infectivity and lethality rate than any other in living memory, infecting tens of thousands and killing hundreds in a matter of months. Doctors and specialists from the Office of Disease Control enact quarantines and scramble to treat the sick and prevent the contagion from spreading, but the difficulty of their task is compounded by the fact that the flu is transmissible days before symptoms begin to manifest Soon, no corner of the Empire is safe from the disease, as special clinics and "sick houses" have to be temporarily established for those incapacitated by fever and hacking coughs.



As quickly as the sickness arrives, it disappears, burning itself out as most of those who catch it recover and become immune. By the end of the year, there are only a handful of remaining cases, all of which under the care and observation of medical professionals. Still, the damage is done: hundreds of deaths, countless lost hours of productivity, and a population that is now more fearful than ever of another, even more deadly disease outbreak that might strike in the future. -500 Tax Income Next Turn


Chaos in Maretonia
: In hindsight, you should have expected your meddling in Maretonian affairs to have unintended consequences. Between inflaming existing rivalries between the noble families, supplying weapons to escaped slaves, and forcing Queen Mareia to conduct a military crackdown to restore order, something had to give eventually.

But you were still surprised when your Southern Neighbor descended into civil war.

Shortly after unleashing her armies in a bid to restore order, Queen Mareia was assassinated, poisoned by an unknown party during her dinner one night.

She died without an heir.

Before her body had even grown cold, a mad scramble for the throne began, with all manner of countesses, dukes and retainers claiming some manner of ancestral relation to the royal family, no matter how marginal or unreliable the claim may have been. Most if not all of the claims were blatant fabrications, but so numerous were the claims, and so powerful and influential were the those making them, that it became effectively impossible to verify them and fish the truth from a sea of lies. It soon reached the point where almost half of the Maretonian nobility were each individually insisting that their claim was the only true one, and that they and they alone deserved to rule the kingdom.

Few even bothered to try and determine the identity of the Queen's killer.

Soon, arguments regarding ancestry deteriorated into magical duels in the streets, which in turn devolved into small-scale wars between the noble houses as bands of mercenaries and battle-mages openly waged war against each other. Each day the conflict escalated, the soldiers of the Maretonian guard either unable or unwilling to intervene as many of their number deserted to defend their families or join the growing armies of the most powerful noble houses.

And as if that wasn't enough, the abolitionists add fuel to the fire, as a wave of slave revolts and mass breakouts sweeps the country, overseers and slaveowners meeting their ends at the hooves of their former property and at the points of Griffon-made blades as hundreds of Earth Ponies, Donkeys and Diamond Dogs take out lifetimes of suppressed rage against their masters.

By the end of the year, the schizophrenic chaos of a nation collapsing inwards upon itself has begun to stabilize as battle lines are drawn between the dominant factions within the Kingdom.

First is House White Star, powerful in terms of both wealth and arcane strength. They control much of the Southern and Eastern Portions of the Kingdom, and have gained the allegiance of much of the traditional nobility, lending them an air of legitimacy. Their leader, the Duke of Argentum, is a renowned schemer and a mage of considerable skill, with deep pockets and a silver tongue. He is the mastermind behind the Maretonian Trade route to the Minotaur Republics, a Trade route that ensures that he and his supporters wield an obscene amount of wealth, which they have used to hire an army comprised almost entirely of mercenaries and supplemented by the infamous battlemages of the Maretonian colleges of magic.


Duke Haygle of Argentum, Head of House White Star

Second is House Storm, a noble house built upon a foundation of martial prowess and military service. House Storm has the support of numerous rural landholders and slaveowners, making up for its comparative lack of wealth and influence with brute strength and intimidation. In addition, many members of the Maretonian Guard who deserted their posts in the aftermath of the Queen's assassination have since pledged their service to House Storm's patriarch Pegicles, a renowned general who has led many campaigns to subjugate "barbarian tribes" and add new lands to the Kingdom of Maretonia...many of which are now ruled over by him and members of his family. They control much of the Western and Central Portions of Maretonia, projecting power through squadrons of household troops and conscripted common ponies.


Pegicles, Duke of Mare-A-Thon and Head of House Storm

The third faction are the remnants of the Maretonian Royal Guard. While their numbers have been depleted by desertions and skirmishes with mercenaries in the opening days of the civil war, they still maintain control of the Capital and the surrounding lands, acting as a force of law and order in these times of chaos. Their overall commander, one Captain Marecinas, has repeatedly expressed her neutrality in the brewing conflict between the noble houses, insisting that she serves Maretonia and will honor the orders of the late Queen Mareia to the best of her ability. Though they are by far the smallest faction, they are potentially the literal kingmakers in the conflict, as they represent the only professional military force in Maretonia at the present time, to say nothing of the symbolic weight of their potentially throwing their allegiance behind one faction or another.


Gaius Marecinas, Captain-General of the Maretonian Guard

And finally, though they aren't in the running for the throne, Ambrosia's abolitionists certainly count as a faction of their own, having seized control over much of the Maretonian-Gryphus Border region and scattered pockets of territory elsewhere in the country. They're practically destitute in comparison to the noble houses and little more than an armed rabble militarily, but their spy network stretches across the nation, and everyone knows that, should your Empire intervene, it will doubtlessly be to support them and their cause.



As of now the situation in Maretonia is more or less stable, with no side having enough of an advantage to attack any other. Though whether this will hold true is yet to be determined. All you know is that thousands of Maretonians are flooding into the Crystal Protectorate, as escaped slaves and commoners alike seek to escape the lawless war zone that much of their homeland has become. Maretonia has fragmented into civil war. Refugee Situation: -500 Gold Per Turn to Support Refugees
 
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...And nothing of value was lost!

Might be worth forming a "mercenary" group to serve to blood new soldiers and test our newer weapons. And do some diplomatic outreach to see who would be willing to give their slaves rights and protections in exchange for being able to do some business with us.

Oh, and have our Navy blockade the coast on one pretext or another. Not like they could stop us now, and they have no friends to complain on their behalf...
 
...And nothing of value was lost!

Might be worth forming a "mercenary" group to serve to blood new soldiers and test our newer weapons. And do some diplomatic outreach to see who would be willing to give their slaves rights and protections in exchange for being able to do some business with us.

Oh, and have our Navy blockade the coast on one pretext or another. Not like they could stop us now, and they have no friends to complain on their behalf...

Naval blockade would definitely harm White Star... BUT... the problem is that they might have allies in the Minotaur republics. If we do blockade we must also do a diplomatic outreach to trade with the minotaurs so that they stay OUT of the conflict.

Definitely call up our allies to talk about this too
 
My thoughts on these new events:
-So that low roll was just another disease outbreak, sucks a lot, but there's nothing we can do about it now until we finish up all the new Sewer systems I guess, maybe beef up our CDC somehow after all finally organizing our magic development team into a separate learning action department...

-We can probably do something soon to economically alleviate that Refugee cost thing that will benefit Us and our new influx of Future Imperial Citizens...

-We can probably hold off open hostilities w/ Maretonia at least 1-2 turns (3-4 if we're REALLYREALLY extremely Fortunate)? Seed some more chaos (might as well), prep up our Magic fighting and tech base etcetera... Absolutely hope to have House Storm and House White Star destroy each other instead of banding together, then clean up the leftover faction with our Abolitionist friends if necessary.

-Also:
Broke: Magic VS Technology
Woke: Magic AND Technology
Bespoke: ??? ...Profit (sans assholery event horizon)

All in all, those two bad rolls could've been muchmuch worse, we could've had ANOTHER FUCKING hostile nation/polity/sealed-evil-in-a-fucking-can roll up to our doorstep again, I'll not look the gift horse in the mouth about this.
 
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...And nothing of value was lost!

Might be worth forming a "mercenary" group to serve to blood new soldiers and test our newer weapons. And do some diplomatic outreach to see who would be willing to give their slaves rights and protections in exchange for being able to do some business with us.

Oh, and have our Navy blockade the coast on one pretext or another. Not like they could stop us now, and they have no friends to complain on their behalf...
How about using the "mercenaries" to train abolitionist milita into real soldiers and act as advisors to train the leadership in how to fight a war?

Also the royal guard might be conviced to support a pro abolition noble.
 
Honestly, could we try and be honorable in this? I don't want us to be greedy assholes and ruin a country more than we already have. Go a bit more MLP in this. Make peace, not war, and all of that. Maybe prioritize the refugees?
 
Naval blockade would definitely harm White Star... BUT... the problem is that they might have allies in the Minotaur republics. If we do blockade we must also do a diplomatic outreach to trade with the minotaurs so that they stay OUT of the conflict.
Wasn't the Maretonian trade expedition noted as being all Maretonian flagged/built ships? And we have... Favorably disposed members of that island to act as a stabilizing influence in the region.

How about using the "mercenaries" to train abolitionist milita into real soldiers and act as advisors to train the leadership in how to fight a war?

Also the royal guard might be conviced to support a pro abolition noble.
The "volunteer" unit would probably end up doing that anyway, yes.

And I was thinking about that. A civil war is good for nobody, but they would probably not have much to do with us as they do not want to be beholden to their rival. We might do civil relief though, allowing Maretonian merchants to do business in our Protectorate so long as they buy food.
 
Yes, while they are disunited and thus can't exactly order everyone to attack, that also means they can't order everyone to not attack.
Of course, but I have made it abundantly clear that I welcome war due to the benefits it could bring. The possibility of either permanently weakening the rival nation, or tying them closer to us is a statement that I literally opened this whole branch of conversation with. The important thing that I said in the statement you quoted is that a disunited enemy attacking is nowhere near as dangerous as a Sombra situation, and therefore has a smaller floor for consequence while maintaining a large ceiling of benefits. It is a perfect opportunity to further enhance our sphere of influence and cement our position as king of the continent (or at least a large portion of it).

Even in the possibility wherein the factions pull a China in agreeing to a ceasefire in the theoretical situation where we go to open warfare with the factions, they would still have a decentralized and uncoordinated chain of command between the two-three factions and therefore are still rendered harmless relative to the other two major wars we've fought in.
 
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This is BEYOND WONDERFUL!

The Pegasi knights and the Unicorn battlemages are for the most part divided in their loyalties:

The disciplined shock troops and mobile frontline that is their pegasi knights, does not have most of its magical artillery or -defense!
The mages have been forced to using mercs to act as their rank and file, with minimal pegasi knight support!

The decision is simple: proclaim for the Abolitionists and march upon one of the two first groups - knock out one side of their full armed forces and the other will not have enough tools in its arsenal to win a war against us!
 
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The "volunteer" unit would probably end up doing that anyway, yes.

And I was thinking about that. A civil war is good for nobody, but they would probably not have much to do with us as they do not want to be beholden to their rival. We might do civil relief though, allowing Maretonian merchants to do business in our Protectorate so long as they buy food.
Set up trading posts on the border where they can be protected by the troops of the defense line. The only thing they sell is food. Any maretoinaian merchent can buy from the trading post and we convince the royal guard to declare the food convoys sacrosanct. Anyone raiding them forfits their claim to the throne.
 
well this is a situation... At best, we'll get 2 on 2. at worst, 3 on 1. at least, unless we directly intervene, then it could be 3 on 2 or 2 on 3.

good thing: The abolitionists have claimed the border. amazing news. We can use the fortifications to let them in and provide some temporary housing and rest stops.

bad thing: The storm have taken the quickest path to the capital. It seems first order of business for them is to make a path to said capital and pleade for assitence from the guard. Given the outposts, as has been previously said, something of a naval blockade would probably work best. Especially with libertalia under our talons.
 
Chaos in Maretonia: In hindsight, you should have expected your meddling in Maretonian affairs to have unintended consequences. Between inflaming existing rivalries between the noble families, supplying weapons to escaped slaves, and forcing Queen Mareia to conduct a military crackdown to restore order, something had to give eventually.

But you were still surprised when your Southern Neighbor descended into civil war.

Shortly after unleashing her armies in a bid to restore order, Queen Mareia was assassinated, poisoned by an unknown party during her dinner one night.

She died without an heir.

Before her body had even grown cold, a mad scramble for the throne began, with all manner of countesses, dukes and retainers claiming some manner of ancestral relation to the royal family, no matter how marginal or unreliable the claim may have been. Most if not all of the claims were blatant fabrications, but so numerous were the claims, and so powerful and influential were the those making them, that it became effectively impossible to verify them and fish the truth from a sea of lies. It soon reached the point where almost half of the Maretonian nobility were each individually insisting that their claim was the only true one, and that they and they alone deserved to rule the kingdom.
Is it weird that the moment I read this, this scene came to mind?
 
alright not as bad as I feared as I was somewhat worried that with such a low roll a noble was able to gather enough support from the the other nobles to unite them and took down the queen in a bloody coo. Still though going through this, we're probably going to have to send some discrete trainers down to help the abolitionist form a proper army, white star would be the easiest to take down should the need arise as all we would have to do is block off their sea routes and wait for their money to dry up as it looks like most if not all of their army is made up of paid mercenaries, so cut off the cash and you cut off their army's loyalty. The Royal guard the least threatening as they seem only to want to protect the capital but if they do throw their weight in with either star or storm they have the potential of uniting the whole kingdom under whatever ruler they back so we should keep an eye on them for that alone. Storm's army is actually the most dangerous I feel as his troops are loyal even if it is through fear, their leader is experienced in maters of military, and they seem to be able to project a strong armed force even with limited resources so it would be harder to try and starve them out economically. However since it seems that most of the remaining slave owners have also sided with him, and assuming they still have some of their slaves, we might be able to use that to attack them from the inside should the need arise.
 
THE END OF TIMES IS NIGH!



A Season of Sickness: Concern and fear spreads across the Empire as a particularly virulent strain of Feather Flu sweeps through the population. Outbreaks of respiratory illness are not uncommon, and cases are often treated as more of a nuisance than a threat to life, but this year's strain of influenza has a higher infectivity and lethality rate than any other in living memory, infecting tens of thousands and killing hundreds in a matter of months. Doctors and specialists from the Office of Disease Control enact quarantines and scramble to treat the sick and prevent the contagion from spreading, but the difficulty of their task is compounded by the fact that the flu is transmissible days before symptoms begin to manifest Soon, no corner of the Empire is safe from the disease, as special clinics and "sick houses" have to be temporarily established for those incapacitated by fever and hacking coughs.



As quickly as the sickness arrives, it disappears, burning itself out as most of those who catch it recover and become immune. By the end of the year, there are only a handful of remaining cases, all of which under the care and observation of medical professionals. Still, the damage is done: hundreds of deaths, countless lost hours of productivity, and a population that is now more fearful than ever of another, even more deadly disease outbreak that might strike in the future. -500 Tax Income Next Turn
Methinks it's time to start researching vaccines. Apparently we already know that you become immune after having a disease, now we can start pushing for stuff like finding less deadly diseases that grant immunity to the deadly versions, isolating disease causing organisms, and finding out if dead viruses still grant immunity.

Okay everyone, repeat after me:
"All According To Plan."

With Maretonia divided, no one is able to spare the attention to do anything to us, for fear of being stabbed in the back by their rivals.
This means we just have to use Subterfuge actions to support our chosen faction(s) with money, weapons, and other supplies. We can let the nobles exhaust themselves and their funds fighting each other, and have the abolitionists sweep up the pieces. Since no one is attacking each other we'll need to create a false flag operation or something in order to get the major factions to start fighting each other though.

Even better, if we want to we can use the civil war to test out new tactics and strategies, the way Germany tested out the Blitzkrieg during the Spanish Civil War before WW2. Eventually we'll fight an enemy that can do maneuver warfare and will just bypass our fortifications, so we need to be able to do more than just turtle up behind a wall.

Tactics that we should test out:
  • Maintaining air superiority at all costs. We can then use our air superiority to drop entire battalions of troops wherever we need them, extract them again(we'll need medic units to transport casualties), bombard fortifications from above with explosives/flechettes/molotov cocktails, scout enemy positions, and resupply friendly units. Basically anything that the real life Air Force can do.
  • Teleporting strike forces behind enemy lines using Merlin. We can test out exactly what his capabilities are, and how well this tactic works. I expect a lot of surprise from enemies when they find out that there's enemies inside their main base of operations. We should also find out whether you can take black steel weapons with you when you teleport. If we can get some kind of divination magic to find
  • Strike forces that specifically target mages, using black steel weapons and focusing on speed to get behind enemy lines and capture/kill mages.
  • Standard doctrine that goes something like this: 1. Find the enemy and scout out as much information as we can 2. Use artillery and archers to bombard the enemy, dealing damage and hopefully pinning them in place behind cover 3. Use flight, teleportation, tunneling, and naval landings to get close range troops behind enemy lines, ideally undetected 4. Focus on taking out enemy leaders, artillery, supplies, and mages. Mop up the rest or withdraw and demand surrender/bombard them to death with artillery.
 
We can defeat White Star by going through with our plan to have Hoofbeard rob the Maretonian Trade Route's Treasure Fleet. Without their gold and the revenue it brings they can't afford to pay their mercenaries and that is a death sentence to anyone with an army composed almost entirely of mercenaries as they resort to looting anything of value and/or taking over your nation.

Storm is trickier, but assassinate the leader and they'll fall into infighting in a struggle to fill the horseshoes.

As for the Royal Guard, they'll fall in line with whoever's the strongest and look guaranteed to win... so that means supporting the abolitionists with everything short of direct invasion (as that would just bring the two factions together to battle against the 'outside threat'). We give weapons, send 'mercenaries' and fully utilise the spy network to its fullest extent.
 
my takes on the factions:
House of white star is going to fall. hard. we have already cut into his main pillar of his support, the trade route. perhaps not completely, but more then enough to cause him major problems. given his foe..

House storm: strong faction, and his support has no major weakness. a bit more tenuous position then white star right now, but the only other major faction.

Royal guard: as said, they are kingmakers.

Abolitionist: rabble and not in position for us to support right now, given they don't have a central candidate for the throne.

Overall.. this civil war is not going to last to long, unless the Abolitionist do something drastic. white star is on a death timer that they don't know about, and by the end of next turn he's going to loose a lot of his power. barring outside intervention, storm is going to gain the advantage once the mercenaries stop being paid, and likely reach the point the royal guard will back him. at that point it's only a matter of time till it is over except for the abolitionists.

tempted to try and negotiate with storm for our support, for some anti-slavery concessions. he seems pragmatic enough to go for it, and taking such a stance would turn the abolitionist to his faction also, meaning he could likely quickly end the civil war.
 
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