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I actually always wondered what the advanced math behind -/+ 5 in a roll off is.

I know that it's higher bonus/disadvantage then is obvious. That's why a lot of systems use it as a base.

but want is the actual probability advantage of say... 20 vs 25 +d100? (Min: 21 vs 26) (Max: 120 vs 125)
If we are talking about opposed 1d100 rolls then:
at equal skill levels you have 49.5% to roll strictly better than opponent (with 49.5% chance of losing and 1% tie)
with +5 advantage chances are 54.4%|0.95%|44.65%
with +10 advantage: 59.05%|0.9%|40.05%
with +15 advantage: 63.45%|0.85%|35.65%
with +20 advantage: 67.6%|0.8%|31.6%
with +25 advantage: 71.5%|0.75%|27.75%
with +30 advantage: 75.15%|0.7%|24.15%

Larger skill gaps are unlikely to appear in the quest. Reverse numbers if we are on the losing side.

General formula is:
with +X advantage: (49.5+1.005X-X^2/200)%|(1-X/100)%|(49.5-0.995X+X^2/200) for win|tie|lose

The mechanical advantage isn't as big as can be expected (+30, which is a master-level swordsman against an untrained peasant, only results in a 75% chance of victory). The reason for that is a relatively large dispersion of a uniform distribution. Using something that generates bell-like curves (sum of several dice is the easiest example) makes modifiers much more important (compare, for example, D&D (1d20) and GURPS (3d6) systems).

On the other hand this variance is mitigated in the quest by two factors:
1) A fair share of encounters are multiple-roll affairs. If you have 75/25 chances on any given roll, you are about 90/10 to win at least 3 out of 5.
2) Oftentimes an extreme difference removes the need for a roll altogether or changes its context (killing mooks narratively or rolling against whole enemy squad instead of a single soldier)
 
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Valid. I misused the word. What I meant by it is a self-improvement that doesn't directly benefit any specific job or task we plan on doing in the short term and that we primarily want to round out our character sheet and to not leave low hanging fruit hanging. If it were actually useless I'd be against it more vocally.

In other words I consider the skill to be in the same category as finishing our spell book, learning a couple more languages and bringing skills that are at 2/3 or 1/2 to full. And among those I even understand if we do it first. I just don't think that it should come before time constrained / turn relevant actions in general and above putting any effort at all into our last few job months in this specific case. I would be okay with playing hooky, but not just for a generic rounding out of our skills that isn't directly related to the Waystone Project or multi-wind enchanting or our ability to recruit people.

Staying alive benefits all tasks forever after the point where we would have died, that puts it in the same category as learning battle magic yes, but not learning languages since that is not life or death battle.

I kind of object to calling his playing hooky since it kind of implies that there is some inherent time limited value to the Lhurne depths, like going to school. I would contest that as nothing has come out of that place for millennia uncounted, that is really not the case. Jobs do not have value just for being the job, but for their inherent ability to make something better or safer, to improve the Karak. I would contend that by that metric the task we have been given is make work and fundamentally not worth the AP.
 
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We don't get to choose when Champions of Khorne show up to crash our party. Or rather, we don't get to choose when Mathilde decides she's 'ard enough to go challenging Martial 30+ enemies like she did against Alakazam and the Greater Slanneshi Daemon. We the players might think Mathilde should never take on those kinds of enemies, but historically Mathilde herself hasn't been quite so cautious. All the more reason to do the sword training, I'd think.

Sure, sure, but we shouldn't go into such encounters thinking we have the upper hand in melee fights, and such a state shouldn't be an expected state of affairs to begin with. In fact, such situations should be avoided when at all possible, because we are not and are liable to never be the equal to a dedicated close-combat melee monster when it comes down to pure martial skill and muscle. And when such danger represents itself, it should be a conscious choice on our part that the risk of such an encounter is matched by a correspondingly high reward. Such as was the case with retrieving the cup for Kislev.

So saying "We must train because we cannot yet take a Khorne Champion in close combat" is completely failing to set a reasonable objective in terms of our ability and skill growth.
In a certain sense, intentionally going into such encounters represent an inherent failure condition in prior preparation, situational handling, and preceding strategy. On occasion this is considered worth it, but we shouldn't plan our training around this becoming our go-to stratagem.
 
On the other hand, no one knows we went head-to-head with a champion of khorne except the gods and the ice witch. And no one knows, really, how we killed alkazerazaersh. Our massive combat abilities are pretty much secret- attributed to the sword, of anything. I mean, Panpan might know because we tell her during pillow talk, but the rest of the world probably only has the charge where we defended van hal, the east gate, and the little warboss in Karagril as reference points. Our actual danger level would be very easy to underestimate.

So I think training swords is getting us an unexpected ace up our sleeves for enemies that come prepared to kill a wizard.
 
Did anybody else see that Total War Warhammer's newest trailer?
With the Kislevite Cat??

Ohohohohohoho Ranald is With Us
 
[X] Plan Efficiency, EIC, and Swords

I don't like everything about this plan; I don't want to recruit Horstmann and don't want to spend the Gambler on that (would rather put it on the paper, honestly), and also have negative interest in Tongs, but its the one I agree with most overall.

Also I like swords.

[X] [KAU] In Kvinn-Wyr, with an entrance from the Eastern Valley
 
Sure, sure, but we shouldn't go into such encounters thinking we have the upper hand in melee fights, and such a state shouldn't be an expected state of affairs to begin with. In fact, such situations should be avoided when at all possible, because we are not and are liable to never be the equal to a dedicated close-combat melee monster when it comes down to pure martial skill and muscle. And when such danger represents itself, it should be a conscious choice on our part that the risk of such an encounter is matched by a correspondingly high reward. Such as was the case with retrieving the cup for Kislev.

So saying "We must train because we cannot yet take a Khorne Champion in close combat" is completely failing to set a reasonable objective in terms of our ability and skill growth.
In a certain sense, intentionally going into such encounters represent an inherent failure condition in prior preparation, situational handling, and preceding strategy. On occasion this is considered worth it, but we shouldn't plan our training around this becoming our go-to stratagem.
I don't get what your point is. The vote leading up to that encounter assumed that with the bearicane providing cover we'd be able to tip the battle in our favor. And we did; before the Champion showed up Mathilde faced no opposing rolls and created incredible damage. No one voted for that fight anticipating there would be a a Khorne Champion.

Also, this was the third time Mathilde has been in close combat against Martial 30+ murderblenders... and the third time she's survived, too. It's not unreasonable to expect that there will eventually be a fourth, whether you'd like that to happen or not.
 
We are a lady magister who is known to use a sword in combat.
I doubt anyone we need to worry about is going to come at us believing we are not good at swords.
 
Also, this was the third time Mathilde has been in close combat against Martial 30+ murderblenders...
Strictly speaking, I believe that was the second time.

From the KD Expediiton, the Greater Daemon had a +40, the Champion of Khorne had a +30, and that should be it for 30+.
Alkharad was +28, and those are the three highest I recall. His Learning was 34, which may be what you were thinking of.
 
Strictly speaking, I believe that was the second time.

From the KD Expediiton, the Greater Daemon had a +40, the Champion of Khorne had a +30, and that should be it for 30+.
Alkharad was +28, and those are the three highest I recall. His Learning was 34, which may be what you were thinking of.

The Daemonette hoard had a +30 bonus as well:
"Daemons!" you yell as you draw your pistol and form another volley of Shadow Knives, but only a single bolt joins your first shot and though the second Daemonette out of the gates falls, the four alongside her continue advancing on legs with too many joints, screaming in anger and anticipation, raising whips and knives and talons and claws as they charge.

[Mathilde receives charge: Martial, 10+23+10(Master Swordswoman)=43 vs 7+30=37.]
[Snorri receives charge: Martial, 90+20=110 vs 48+30=78.]

I'm quite certain a single Daemonette isn't that strong, but a hoard of them is 30+.
 
I would contest that as nothing has come out of that place for millennia uncounted, that is really not the case.
Uhm, what? How in the depths would we know what did or didn't crawl out of there during Goblin reign in Lhune?

Also, are you calling Belegar stupid or just that he seems to purposefully suggest time wasters to Mathilde?

Not to mention that mapping the whole K8P underground was a long existing Loremaster project that we even voted for a couple of times.
 
Uhm, what? How in the depths would we know what did or didn't crawl out of there during Goblin reign in Lhune?

Also, are you calling Belegar stupid or just that he seems to purposefully suggest time wasters to Mathilde?

Not to mention that mapping the whole K8P underground was a long existing Loremaster project that we even voted for a couple of times.

Because there were still goblins to be found by us so if there is anything in there it is something the goblins could keep a lid on. In any case even if there is a lost Balrog down there is there any real reason why it has to be Mathilde to send miners in there. Is that a task that requires a grey wizard? A diplomat with experience in multiple species? A shareholder of the EIC maybe? No, any dwarf will be able to do the proposed action as well or better. You are right we had a mapping project, this is not that, this is pointing some dwarf miners at the depths and then helping them organize, through the use of a cantrip many wizards of all eight colleges know.

As for why Belegar gave us make-work, because he wanted us to take it easy since he could see Mathy is exhausted. He is not stupid, he is in facrt very clever, it is just that his main objective is not maximisng AP utility since he is not a quest player, he is her friend.
 
Imho, we keep succeeding because we have such a bag of tricks that when one thing fails, or when an opponent is better at it that us, we use another. This is both due to all our stats being high to legendary (our dump stat is Wealthy EC advisor level, I am not calling any of our stats mediocre, ven if they are that if we judge based on the truly big leagues) , and because we draw all our stats from several things we are good at rather than one thing we are really good at (our martial comes from strategy, experience, training and a unique sword, our intrigue comes from experience, knowledge of psychology, piety and magic, etc.) . Our power comes not from magic, as some people here say, but from gathering whatever advantage is in reach so that we always play poker with more cards than our opponent.

Greatsword mastery with a unique style enemies won't be familliar with is in reach. Doesn't matter if it won;t make us the best, its a litle more weight to the dice, and we are where we are because we take the opportunities to add that weight, when we can without shirking responsibilities or hurting others. So let's add it. Sure, it may not be useful against khorne champions, but guess what? Having high martial can really help us with casters. Because they do not focus in martial so we can just use our sword to kill them fast , forcing them into an unfavourable confrontation. It is exceptionally useful against vampire or Tzeench daemon casters, because they do have some martial that must be countered, so we will need to be strong to even beat their dump stat, rather than our martial just affecting how fast and efficiently we clean them.

Mathilde was never about supreme arcane might. She was all about having multiple tools, so that she could force her opponent into an unfavourable for them confrontation and steamroll them. Her solution to her magister exam duel was "gun". We shouldn't learn to sword better to fight against Khornates. We absolutely must learn to sword better to fight against people who are not good at close combat, or treat it as secondary. Or to buy us time to breathe and a chance to escape if our intrigue missions go wrong and we find ourselves surrounded by unnamed enemies, with no space to cast. Or if some person tries to intrigue attack us and we get forced to close combat. (we are better at intrigue than most, but Eshin assasins, other grey wizards, Tzeench daemons etc. could still win that roll). Or if we are in a battle that is too chaotic to allow us to reliably stay in the back lines and cast (we had to use teleport and sword to help Deathfang, no spell in our arsenal was both powerful and precise enough to save him, except, well... teleporting a unit with very high martial, aka us, there.)
 
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I don't get what your point is. The vote leading up to that encounter assumed that with the bearicane providing cover we'd be able to tip the battle in our favor. And we did; before the Champion showed up Mathilde faced no opposing rolls and created incredible damage. No one voted for that fight anticipating there would be a a Khorne Champion.

Also, this was the third time Mathilde has been in close combat against Martial 30+ murderblenders... and the third time she's survived, too. It's not unreasonable to expect that there will eventually be a fourth, whether you'd like that to happen or not.

Allow me to make my point one more time, as clearly as I can.

Anyone and everyone bemoaning us not being the favoured winner in a close-quarters melee combat against anti-magic specced Khornate Champion murderhoboes, has completely and utterly mistaken assumptions on what sort of martial skill we should expect Mathilde to achieve.
So anyone going into sword training based on the expectations that the next time we meet one, we will be able to whip out Branulhune and murder one without breaking too bad of a sweat, has severely mistaken assumptions on the results of even dedicated sword training. Because even if we dedicate the next decade to nothing but sword training, we will still be training less in the art of melee combat than a Champion of Khorne (who lives for this kind of stuff as a religious obligation) would.

Therefore, we should never ever in a million years make plans based on having an ability to engage a Champion of Khorne level opponent with pure martial skill ie. Absent all our magical arsenal (which Champions of Khorne, as we've seen, can enforce upon us). These are deadly opponents where we are an underdog.

And, when we have options to decide on how to proceed with planning, we in fact should AVOID such confrontations since they represent a failure to take advantage of our majority skillset.
When such confrontations appear probable due to our chosen path, we should take care that the risk we are knowingly and willingly undertaking (and it is a very real risk of Mathile dying), is counterbalanced with a corresponding reward.

And finally, when we are forced into such a confrontation against our will, this inherently represent a failure condition on all of the above, such as failing to use our magical skills to avoid detection, or failure to call upon allies prior to embarking on the quest, or failure to correctly estimate strenght of enemy forces etc. And when these situations occur, it should be understood that we are likely not the opponent's equal in pure martial ability.

Because we are a magic user, and this comes with an opportunity cost that when we could have been learning how to sword, we were instead learning how to bend Ulgu with our soul, and this is not a shitty computer RPG where you can max every stat.

Therefore:
Raising swording ability is good, since it increases our survivability.
Raising swording ability based on the expectation that afterwards we can favourably take on Champions of Khorne, particularly if ambushed, is a severe fundamental mistake in comprehending what the above line about survivability means.
 
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Therefore:
Raising swording ability is good, since it increases our survivability.
Raising swording ability based on the expectation that afterwards we can favourably take on Champions of Khorne, particularly if ambushed, is a severe fundamental mistake in comprehending what the above line about survivability means.
I don't believe I've seen anyone assert the latter expectation. And I think that's a rather unfair way to characterise the discussion here.
 
On the other hand, no one knows we went head-to-head with a champion of khorne except the gods and the ice witch. And no one knows, really, how we killed alkazerazaersh. Our massive combat abilities are pretty much secret- attributed to the sword, of anything. I mean, Panpan might know because we tell her during pillow talk, but the rest of the world probably only has the charge where we defended van hal, the east gate, and the little warboss in Karagril as reference points. Our actual danger level would be very easy to underestimate.
You're absolutely right that much of our combat experience has been left unwitnessed, but I'm not all that sure that the impression that would remain when leaving the unwitnessed stuff out would be all that easy to underestimate.

I mean, of the three examples you gave, they respectively involve more or less soloing an army (for at least several minutes), cutting her way through a bunch of orcs to find and kill some warbosses, and slicing a warboss in half in a single go almost immediately after showing up. They might not seem as impressive to us because we can see Mathilde's internal narration talking about how wounded/tired she is and compare/contrast to some of the unwitnessed fights which were much closer, but from an outside perspective Mathilde does a really good impression of an unstoppable murderblender.
 
Because there were still goblins to be found by us so if there is anything in there it is something the goblins could keep a lid on.
Or it was something that comes once or twice a century, kills a couple thousand Greenskins and then gets forgotten by them because which Boss cares about a couple thousand Greenskins.

I'm not saying that it's likely or anything, but literally anything could be under Lhune. All we know is that it isn't a major danger on a period that's shorter than a decade.
 
Or it was something that comes once or twice a century, kills a couple thousand Greenskins and then gets forgotten by them because which Boss cares about a couple thousand Greenskins.

I'm not saying that it's likely or anything, but literally anything could be under Lhune. All we know is that it isn't a major danger on a period that's shorter than a decade.

Sure and literally nothing could also be there, but personally I think the part where dwarfs do not need a human to organize miners of all things is the more salient point. It may be worth looking into, but it is really not worth looking into by us looking over the shoulders of said miners is my point.
 
Honestly, even being fully trained in Branarhune wouldn't have helped much against the Khornate. Everything devised for the style relies on using the Rune of the Unknown for tricks, and Mathilde wasn't willing to risk using it when fighting him because she wasn't sure she'd get it back.
 
Sure and literally nothing could also be there, but personally I think the part where dwarfs do not need a human to organize miners of all things is the more salient point. It may be worth looking into, but it is really not worth looking into by us looking over the shoulders of said miners is my point.

Those miners probably have been collating data about the depths, writing reports, drawing maps etc—but where's that information going? It's not ending up on Belegar's desk, and it's definitely not on our desk despite the fact that we are the Loremaster. There's probably half a dozen mine chiefs who've got filing cabinets filled with information about the depths and they don't know what to do with it all, and they are certainly not talking to each other about it because no one wants to be the first to admit they are failing in their duties. They probably need a loremaster—any loremaster, human or dwarf—to poke their nose in, look through their files, and collate what's important and discard what's not important so they can provide a proper report to Belegar.

If it turns out that they have been organising and collating this information, then that makes our job easier—all we have to do is give it to Belegar. And if they haven't been recording this information at all, well then we can inform Belegar and he can make it the next loremasters job to organise it all for him (and maybe hire some new mine chiefs).
 
but personally I think the part where dwarfs do not need a human to organize miners of all things is the more salient point.
Of course they don't need a Human for that. Any half decent Loremaster could do the job. It just takes time. Time that Loremasters get paid for. You know, like Loremaster Mathilde for instance.

Belegar/BoneyM gave us the out to ignore the job. But it's still playing hooky. Which is what I said and what you tried to argue isn't true.
 
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