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[x] Sir Ruprecht Wulfhart the Younger
[x] Use Rite of Way to ease the ascent
[x] Scout the lands of the Iron Wolves
[x] Investigate the 'Windfall' with the Light Wizards
 
I have to disagree their better troops were somewhere else while the comb was held by what appears to be the most basic of skaven here. Either the better trips were fighting someone or something happen. Mathilde suspects the demons attacked them but well we have not seen hard evidence. Also we do not know how the civil war ended or if it ended at all yet.
We know that the Pestilens holdings in the Empire have already been taken by other Skaven/the Empire. And I really doubt that Moulder's Dark Lands holdings are a prime target for Pestilens to attack, or even logistically doable. This should be quite a ways away from the seat of Pestilens' power in Lustria and etc. and with a whole lot of other targets in the way.
 
...I feel the first option wins in a landslide, when you consider that the Iron Wolves have neighbors who will attack them if they are weak. If your business model is "attack vulnerable caravans," you don't risk a sizable force or your extremely costly pocket kaiju attacking a heavily armed and armored convoy that doesn't look like they're carrying trade goods.

So yeah, I expect them to spot us, absolutely. What I don't expect them to do is pick a serious fight. They might win, if they committed a large enough force, but it would hurt like hell and it's obvious from looking at us that it will hurt like hell. We have a fuckmothering dragon advertising that fact.
when we were vulnerable at Karak Vlag? Their actions just aren't consistent with "our current mission is to ruin the expedition's day.")

They aren't run by quest voters, they're run by a dragon ogre. Not a creature reknowned for caring about the lives of its followers. "Eh, I'll just get more humans! They'll breed themselves back up in a few decades."

EDIT: Please don't get hung up on whether the dragon ogre is literally directing them or just they are just worshipping it if you respond to this, because I think I make an pretty good case below that doesn't in any way depend on a dragon ogre giving them orders.

At the top of the ascent is the land of the Iron Wolves, the Kurgan tribe who are said to serve a Dragon Ogre and who spend much of their time watching and raiding the Skull Road.

I mean, it's easy to say they won't launch a "serious attack" but even a non-serious probing attack that kills dozens of our knights and rangers would be pretty bad. Also, this is their home terrain that they know very well and can pick the best possible site to take on huge steam wagons. Maybe a slope where they can launch a landslide at us. Maybe their shamans come up with some magical trap. Maybe their dragon ogre enters the fray. Maybe they have some other advantage I'm not thinking about but that could be discovered with a successful scouting action.

Scouting is about figuring out what they might be likely to try, what forces they might be bringing to bear, and and finding ways to minimize whatever advantages they might bring to the table instead of letting them surprise us with it. The more we know, the more we can minimize whatever damage they do in their attack whether it's a "serious fight" or a "non-serious fight".

Also, whether we look like an attractive target is kind of a coin flip here. They have no idea how tough the armor on these steam wagons might or might not be, how many guns we have, if that's a real dragon, etc. until they actually try their luck. Maybe they don't think we look like we're carrying trade goods. Maybe they theorize (correctly!) that we're carrying enough silver and gems on us to "solve whatever problem can be solved by money". I don't know how hard they'll try, but expecting them not to try their luck at all is the really optimistic "roll a 6 on the d6" position. They'll probably at least give raiding us a shot.
 
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The thing I don't understand about how the vote is going is why so much emphasis has been on Ruprecht. Rite of way makes sense, we made it for this. Green is sus and our subordinate, we should get on that. The falls are interesting themselves and because the lights want to check it. That leaves scouting or Ruprecht in my eyes. Can someone explain why people are so dead set on Ruprecht out of the two?
Ru Paul had his forces embarrass themselves in the fight against Daemons, people are worried about his morale. He's had a turn to percolate, but that's not too late to influence him, or at least figure out where his head's at.
 
They aren't run by quest voters, they're run by a dragon ogre. Not a creature reknowned for caring about the lives of its followers. "Eh, I'll just get more humans! They'll breed themselves back up in a few decades."
If we're going by the wiki entry, the dragon ogre doesn't run the tribe, he just sleeps in the mountain and the humans gather around it.

Not saying that's necessarily the case here, but even without the OOC, dragon ogres sleep pretty often. If he's awake he's a threat, if he's asleep he isn't.
 
One: what is a "jump" in this context?
I just read this and I'm quite a few pages behind so I don't know if someone already answered you, but a jump in this context is a jumpchain. Kind of like a long-form CYOA (Choose Your Own Adventure) story. You pick a setting, follow the rules for the jump doc, spend the points you earn on tools, powers, perks, companions, and other goodies, then imagine or write out the ensuing scenario. Every jump is a new world or setting.
 
I'm not going by the wiki entry, I'm going by the quest text that BoneyM gave us and which I quoted in my post. Maybe it's asleep, maybe not.
The only thing Mathilde knows is this.
He nods. "You came through the mountains? The proud Kul are to the north of the mountains, their claim stretches all the way to the Blessed Lands. Dolgan land stretches to the Tea Road. Between Tea Road and Dwarf-Land is the Iron Wolf Tribes, who serve an Old One. East are the Kvelliges and Khazags, and north are the Yusak, who have lost favour with the Four and seek lands further from them."
Serve could mean that it directs their every move, or it could be more of how they worship it. But that's all the info she has.
 
The thing I don't understand about how the vote is going is why so much emphasis has been on Ruprecht.
Ru Paul had his forces embarrass themselves in the fight against Daemons, people are worried about his morale. He's had a turn to percolate, but that's not too late to influence him, or at least figure out where his head's at.

Actually, it's the food situation that makes me want to talk to at least one of the Knight leaders. It's all about them and their animals; the rangers and engineers will manage however they have to, even down to just going on half rations with those superhuman dwarven constitutions. All the food concerns are about the knights.

We keep hearing from dwarves whether or not food is a problem for the knights. I'd like to hear from at least one of the knight leaders how confident they are in their hunting/raiding ability rather than how confident some dwarf guesses they are.
 
[X] Use Rite of Way to ease the ascent
[X] Investigate the 'Windfall' with the Light Wizards
[X] Journeyman Cyrston von Danling
[X] Scout the lands of the Iron Wolves
 
So yeah, I expect them to spot us, absolutely. What I don't expect them to do is pick a serious fight. They might win, if they committed a large enough force, but it would hurt like hell and it's obvious from looking at us that it will hurt like hell. We have a fuckmothering dragon advertising that fact.
It's a fair point that fighting the expedition would be high-risk as hell, and that might be enough to ward them off. But you should also acknowledge that it would likewise be extremely high-reward. I mean, for one thing per BoneyM the amount of currency the Expedition has on hand is "yes". And while all those dwarven cannon are certainly dangerous as fuck, by the same token they're also rare and valuable for anyone not a dwarf. Would the Kurgan want to use them? Probably not, but Uzkulak is absolutely within trading distance for them and by design it's generally got something for everybody there, even if "something" is just hard currency. Similarly, while dwarven runework/weapons can be quite powerful and dangerous they're also rare as fuck and a Destro faction like the Kurgan have close to zero means of access to them that don't involve somebody looting them off dead dwarves, either personally doing it or buying from someone who did. And the very size/visible impressiveness of the Expedition advertises that it's likely to have at least one or more members important enough to rate carrying some runic gear. Even the dragon, while being literally a fuckmothering dragon (to borrow the term) is also literally made out of incredibly valuable and hard-to-come-by magical resources.

Assuming that "the Expedition looks dangerous, and therefore surely the Kurgan will never attack it" trivializes the whole trip up to Karag Dum itself. When the Expedition itself certainly appears to take the possibility of being threatened by the Kurgan quite seriously.
(And I don't expect the Tzeentch daemons to be spending the effort on contacting them: remember, #TzeentchGang was over a hundred miles southwest of us, and we're traveling east and north. Burning our supply cache was on their way, but right now we're leaving the Zorn Uzkul entirely while they were at the southern edge of it. How and why exactly did they get around us and lay a trap for us by telling the Iron Wolves to attack us without any one of us spotting them? Maybe if they were on a dedicated "screw these guys" mission, but if that's the case, why didn't they attack us when we were vulnerable at Karak Vlag? Their actions just aren't consistent with "our current mission is to ruin the expedition's day.")
"The effort to contact them" would likely be, relatively speaking, quite low. The Slaaneshi daemons who charged us numbered what, hundreds? If the Tzeentchians are even roughly comparable, splitting off one daemon (or five, or ten) is a relatively minimal reduction of their current forces. And the payoff would be a) fucking with a major contingent of Order forces, b) getting payback for being dragged out of the Warp unwillingly, ruining a centuries-long Chaos plot and not-irrelevantly giving them a splitting headache, and c) if it works then they get to lord it over the Slaaneshi who tried to do the same thing directly with a notable lack of meaningful success. Never underestimate the extent to which Greater Daemons run on pride and spite.

Now, let me answer your questions.
"How and why exactly did they get around us and lay a trap for us by telling the Iron Wolves to attack us without any one of us spotting them?" They have daemons that can fly, that can travel by night, and that can move significantly faster than us. And they're not bound to stick to the road as much as physically possible like the Expedition is, so it's not as if there's a shortage of space for them to maneuver through. And all that's even if they didn't start moving from Karak Vlag multiple days before the Expedition did (which they in fact did do). Which means that not only would it be relatively simple for them to send daemons ahead of us without showing up on our radar even if they were starting from behind us, but there's no reason to assume they started from behind us.
"Maybe if they were on a dedicated "screw these guys" mission, but if that's the case, why didn't they attack us when we were vulnerable at Karak Vlag?" You remember how that worked out when the Slaaneshi tried it, right? Charging into the teeth of prepared dwarven defences when they know you're coming and you're on a sharply limited timer is a sucker's game, and if the Slaaneshi hadn't been the ones most invested in the Karak Vlag scheme and hence the ones who lost the most when it all went tits-up I doubt they'd have been mad enough to do that either. Whereas if they sic the Kurgan on us now, not only is this costing them relatively few of their own forces (assuming they're sticking with fucking with the Skaven/collecting sacrifices with the bulk of their forces; it doesn't have to be their current main mission to fuck with us in order for them to spare some messengers) but to quote the QM once more:
This is the leg of the Expedition where the speed of the steam-wagons will reduce to a crawl and the convoy might be most vulnerable to attack
This is a very different scenario indeed to charging into the teeth of prepared dwarven defences when the dwarves know you're coming.

Also, since the Kurgan have Chaos shamans who are theoretically capable of being contacted by Warp entities, let's please take a second to remember that we know for a fact there is a minimum of one Greater Daemon currently in the warp (very recently returned to it, in fact) who has already attacked the Expedition once and has very personal as well as factional reason to want to fuck our day up.
 
tl;dr - I don't think the Iron Wolves would need to have been warned of our approach specifically to have a quite good chance of spotting us for the reasons I said before, but I also don't think we can casually discount the possibility that they were given advance notice of our approach.

And if they tarpit us with a few thousand warriors, we lose. If they attack as anything more than a probing force before we get to Dum, we lose. This isn't about setting ourselves up to win a fight, it's about recognizing that if a real fight happens, we've basically lost already.

I don't see how Mathilde scouting and finding something helps us at all, so I don't see a reason to do it. We can't avoid- the roads are too steep/slow. We can't win, not against most possible attacks.

So I want to avoid going out and provoking one. A magical scout is going to be noticable to a different, more concerning group of foes, so staying in keeps us underestimated.

I mean, it's easy to say they won't launch a "serious attack" but even a non-serious probing attack that kills dozens of our knights and rangers would be pretty bad. Also, this is their home terrain that they know very well and can pick the best possible site to take on huge steam wagons. Maybe a slope where they can launch a landslide at us. Maybe their shamans come up with some magical trap. Maybe their dragon ogre enters the fray. Maybe they have some other advantage I'm not thinking about but that could be discovered with a successful scouting action.

Then we lose. Knowing what is coming won't help if we simply lack the resources to respond. We need to avoid or redirect any fights, not win them, and I'm afraid that magical scouting is an escalation rather than a safety net there.

I just read this and I'm quite a few pages behind so I don't know if someone already answered you, but a jump in this context is a jumpchain. Kind of like a long-form CYOA (Choose Your Own Adventure) story. You pick a setting, follow the rules for the jump doc, spend the points you earn on tools, powers, perks, companions, and other goodies, then imagine or write out the ensuing scenario. Every jump is a new world or setting.

So do any of the jumps actually tell stories? I spent a while looking at them a bit ago, and it seemed like 90% setting up a power fantasy, 5% execution, and 5% debriefing. I was super excited to see some of the stories they set up but it was always like a paragraph with no character arcs or development.
 
I guess her... quirk might be that there's enough of the Showmanling at Mathilde's core that she does it all as herself. (Taking off her hat counts as disguise. :)) I imagine Regimand, for example, wouldn't have been caught short at the gates of Uzkulak, scrambling for a plausible alias. He'd probably have a patiently-crafted cover identity of, say, a shady Ostermark trader and smuggler- or at least have thought it up beforehand.

As you say, Mathilde has all of the Grey tradecraft skills to sneak in and out unnoticed, and has utilised Divine blessings to supplement that skill. She's gotten very, very good at slipping in, and thinks she's covered her weaknesses at exfiltration after going loud. But it's usually as Mathilde, the famous Dämmerlichtreiter. Mathilde started off acting in plain sight as a Grey Journeywoman Spymistress, which experience understandably shaped her subsequent approach.

You know, this has re-contextualized a good enough portion of this quest that I feel like I have a greater understanding of Mattie's character then I did before hand.

Thanks.

So do any of the jumps actually tell stories? I spent a while looking at them a bit ago, and it seemed like 90% setting up a power fantasy, 5% execution, and 5% debriefing. I was super excited to see some of the stories they set up but it was always like a paragraph with no character arcs or development.

Not really.

It's, basically think of it as a blueprint to help you design you're own story. The idea is, you read it, you design you're own character/adventure, and you write you're own story.

Most of the time it's limited to a story in you're head, a day dream, everyonce in a while someone uses it as a base to write a fanfic, but in general ... no, they don't tell stories. Most people don't make one of those and also make a fully formed story to go with it, if a story is written it's usually by someone who read the jump and enjoyed it.

Which is, you know, a shame in my opinion.
 
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I fully expect them to notice us, yeah. We're on their hunting grounds where they ambush caravans, after all, the place where caravans are most vulnerable. But we're not a caravan, and we're obviously not a caravan.
Like, imagine you're playing Iron Wolf Quest:
The problem with this hypothesis is that you're ignoring a critical factor: Chaos.
The Iron Wolves are not just a steppe nomad tribe, they are worshippers of a malignant ideology whose deities and demons occasionally take a direct hand to instigate events, and are fairly indifferent to casualties among their followers.

I mean, do you think it implausible that our Lord of Change friend has sent them dreams?
Blessed someone with mutations? Made it easier to summon a bunch of lowlevel demons?
Or that the Slaaeshi Greater Daemon we banished has time on their hands to attempt to instigate stuff along our travel route by poking them?

And its not like we havent given advance warning, since the Ice Witches cleared the mountain pass months ago, or the dwarven supply arrangements.

Canonically, the book from which some of the background elements here were drawn has these Iron Wolves invade Kislev in order to capture a city and descrate it to Chaos three and a half decades from now. No tangible profit motive involved.
Never mind the heavy cavalry defenders or the Ice Witch sorcerers on their own land.

Chaos does not always make what humans would call reasonable strategic decisions.
Hell, see the example of Karag Vlag, which they could have settled a century ago if they hadnt chosen to draw it out intentionally.
Similarly, their adherents will not always make what we consider optimal decisions.

Not if Chaos gets involved.
 
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And if they tarpit us with a few thousand warriors, we lose. If they attack as anything more than a probing force before we get to Dum, we lose. This isn't about setting ourselves up to win a fight, it's about recognizing that if a real fight happens, we've basically lost already.
There's a very wide spectrum of what "real fight" can mean where scouting is extremely relevant. That can cover anything from "literally they could physically wipe us out if we engage" (which boy howdy, would I like to know that's up ahead before we, you know, engage) to "it's a smaller force that seems to be relying on ambush" in which case wouldn't it be nice to, you know, see the ambush coming instead of just finding out there's an ambush when we get ambushed? Actually, I genuinely can't think of any scenario where I wouldn't rather know that a fight is coming before it actually happens to us. Tactical surprise is an ugly thing to be on the wrong end of.
So I want to avoid going out and provoking one. A magical scout is going to be noticable to a different, more concerning group of foes, so staying in keeps us underestimated.
I also think you're vastly overestimating how noticeable a wizard is just by existing. Also, if you want people to not fight you, then you want to be overestimated, not underestimated. Underestimated is what makes people fight you even if they can't actually win.
 
So do any of the jumps actually tell stories? I spent a while looking at them a bit ago, and it seemed like 90% setting up a power fantasy, 5% execution, and 5% debriefing. I was super excited to see some of the stories they set up but it was always like a paragraph with no character arcs or development.
Some jumpchains/CYOAs have scenarios or plotlines you can potentially involve your protagonist in, but yeah, for the most part, it's as the other guy said. Most people don't write fanfic, and most of those people don't write good fanfic.

I'm currently doing something of a CYOA myself, if you feel like giving it a look. Miracles of Modern Wonder, in my sig.
 
[x] Scout the lands of the Iron Wolves

[X] Journeyman Cyrston von Danling

By my count we've accidentallied Karl Franz, Grimgor Ironhide, Queek Headtaker, Skarsnik, Gobbla, Viggo Hexensohn, and Jovi Sunscryer (ranked in order of importance). Let's see if we can't add Aelfric Cyenwulf and Kar Odacen to their number.
 
I fully expect them to notice us, yeah. We're on their hunting grounds where they ambush caravans, after all, the place where caravans are most vulnerable. But we're not a caravan, and we're obviously not a caravan.

Like, imagine you're playing Iron Wolf Quest:

...I feel the first option wins in a landslide, when you consider that the Iron Wolves have neighbors who will attack them if they are weak. If your business model is "attack vulnerable caravans," you don't risk a sizable force or your extremely costly pocket kaiju attacking a heavily armed and armored convoy that doesn't look like they're carrying trade goods.

So yeah, I expect them to spot us, absolutely. What I don't expect them to do is pick a serious fight. They might win, if they committed a large enough force, but it would hurt like hell and it's obvious from looking at us that it will hurt like hell. We have a fuckmothering dragon advertising that fact.

(And I don't expect the Tzeentch daemons to be spending the effort on contacting them: remember, #TzeentchGang was over a hundred miles southwest of us, and we're traveling east and north. Burning our supply cache was on their way, but right now we're leaving the Zorn Uzkul entirely while they were at the southern edge of it. How and why exactly did they get around us and lay a trap for us by telling the Iron Wolves to attack us without any one of us spotting them? Maybe if they were on a dedicated "screw these guys" mission, but if that's the case, why didn't they attack us when we were vulnerable at Karak Vlag? Their actions just aren't consistent with "our current mission is to ruin the expedition's day.")

You are explaining very rational arguments, but if we were playing the Iron Wolf quest, we would awaken the Dragon Ogre Shaggoth

And you know it

Anyway, I expect a roll from Boney.
 
You are explaining very rational arguments, but if we were playing the Iron Wolf quest, we would awaken the Dragon Ogre Shaggoth

And you know it

Anyway, I expect a roll from Boney.
The canon leader of the Iron Wolves circa the 2520s is one of the greatest of Tzeench's Chaos Lords, and one of Archaeon's lieutenants. But he might still be a kid, so it will likely be a roll, so I agree that we should be careful here.
 
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There's a very wide spectrum of what "real fight" can mean where scouting is extremely relevant. That can cover anything from "literally they could physically wipe us out if we engage" (which boy howdy, would I like to know that's up ahead before we, you know, engage) to "it's a smaller force that seems to be relying on ambush" in which case wouldn't it be nice to, you know, see the ambush coming instead of just finding out there's an ambush when we get ambushed? Actually, I genuinely can't think of any scenario where I wouldn't rather know that a fight is coming before it actually happens to us. Tactical surprise is an ugly thing to be on the wrong end of.
This brings us full circle to the Knights of Taal's Fury. If the Iron Wolves lay a trap or set up an attack in the path of the expedition, well, that's what the nice men on kittybirds are for. If the Iron Wolves are sticking to themselves in their own territory, they aren't being a problem for us.

Like, this is the issue I keep getting hung up on. How does Mathilde scouting Iron Wolf territory improve the situation over the Knights of Taal's Fury scouting the expedition's path? If people were arguing for trying to contact them, okay, that I can understand as filling a meaningfully different strategic role. But I look at the "scout their territory" option and it doesn't read as "mitigate danger to the expedition to me," it reads as "plot hooks and loot." Which, you know, is a thing (it's basically what the combes were last turn), but people are arguing as though it represents a meaningful extra insurance policy, and that just doesn't seem correct to me.

Seriously: what scenario can we imagine happening if we take Iron Wolf scouting that:
  1. Isn't discernible by the Knights doing their scouting
  2. Mathilde can take action to avert
Because so far all I've seen that meets both is "they might be starting a Chaos ritual to awaken their Old One to fuck us up." Mathilde doesn't speak their language, so she can't meaningfully spy on their plans beyond "troop movements," which, again, have to get into position to threaten us, and that's what the Knights of Taal's Fury are for (and, again, I will point out that their mounts are faster than steppe horses). We're not passing through their territory, we're going along what the Kurgan call the Tea Road, which divides Dolgan and Iron Wolf territory, so Mathilde isn't scouting our future path. She can steal from them or she can roll up her sleeves and slit some throats, and I don't see what problems she can avert by doing that other than "big spooky ritual," which we have no reason to believe they are doing beyond "Tzeentch daemons might be trying to dick us over specifically."

tl;dr: Expedition security against steppe nomads is a job that is already being done. We might be able to help with it, sure, but checking out the wizards and getting a handle on the personalities of expedition leadership isn't, so I say we do that.
 
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I don't see how Mathilde scouting and finding something helps us at all, so I don't see a reason to do it. We can't avoid- the roads are too steep/slow. We can't win, not against most possible attacks.

Depends on luck I'd say. I can think of plenty of strategies for us to distract raiding party that's too strong for us to defeat by ourselves.

Lot of factors are important there, how spread out are there, how many magic users/priests, how tough the lead person is, etc, etc. Infiltrate, kill the leader, and run is a strategy that's done wonders in the past, but might not be viable with Chaos worshipers who tend to have tougher leaders than Skaven and Goblins while on a flat plain where it might be hard to do stealth.

A potential alternate strategy might be to use a spell we haven't used before, though we do know it..

K / Eye of the Beholder: You can change an object's appearance to make it look either worthless or valuable for several hours.
- This does not go all the way to repulsive, nor all the way to irresistable.
- Shape of the object appears unchanged. Usually changes material, craftsmanship, intricacy, decorations, and so on.

It's a relatively simple spell so we can probably cast it a lot, and between the fact that we'd cast it before interacting with them, it doesn't actually hurt the enemy or protect us, and it's a pretty low power spell in addition to the fact that we'd want to keep our distance I'd say chances are good it's goes below an enemy spellcasters notice.

If we do find a Raiding party waiting to ambush the caravan, I'd say casting Eye of the Beholder on all of our stuff to make our stuff seem super valuable, taking a real long range potshot at them to catch their attention and anger them, and then fleeing on our Shadow Horse should have decent enough odds on getting if not all of them than a significant number of them to chase us, which would either completely prevent the raid or massively weaken it. With Shadow Horse we can move faster then most living animals so escape should be easy enough, and even if they don't send all their men after us if we make it clear we are a wizard their likely to send a magic user to chase us down.

I wouldn't gamble on any of this happening, it's just an example. If we stumble on a group ready to ambush our caravan, I can't guarantee we'll be in a position or have the ability to do anything to stop it or significantly weaken it .... but we have enough tools and skill and power and speed and luck that I'd never rule it out. There are a ton of scenarios where I could see us doing a little early scouting help us prevent a tragedy.

If we do find something and can't do anything about it even a little advanced warning might help things, if we find something interesting enough it might pause for a vote, etc, etc, etc. Who can say for sure?

.............

Of course, this cuts both ways. The pro-social activity crowd isn't wrong either. A talk here or there, building a connection and/or understanding of others, some comfort or confidence building, etc, etc .... that could all help prevent a disaster incredibly easily too. It's all to easy someone getting a little too eager to prove themselves, or getting scared at a crucial point, or switching sides, where maybe, just maybe, a conversation with us a few days ago to soothe their worries or ego's or just provide a helping hand might have made a pivotal difference. Whose to say?
 
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