Warhammer Fantasy: Divided Loyalties - an Advisor's Quest

Deathbybunnies · Jul 8, 2020

BoneyM said:
The Empire is riddled with rivers, almost all of which reach the sea through Marienburg. This means the majority of the Empire's international trade goes through there. Trying to pivot to overland would be hugely difficult and in some cases impossible.

Breaking the blockade would most likely involve destroying their navy and the infrastructure that allows Marienburg to block the river, and probably anchoring a Dreadnought or five off the coast in case they get any funny ideas about rebuilding.

I think it's a safe assumption that the elves won't get involved unless they are obliged to by treaty. @BoneyM do we know what the treaties between Marienburg and Ulthuan actually say?

Also, is this vote just suggesting methods Mathilde thinks would work, or is part of it deciding whether the answers are correct or not? I'm seeing people supporting the idea of the Dwarves making up for it in internal trade, but I honestly don't know if that's even true.

Abhorsen · Jul 8, 2020

I'm leaning towards the blockade busting option. First, it's a strong option, that doesn't weaken the Empire or the Dwarves. A weak empire is a huge problem that I think people are underselling. Second it weakens Marienburg temporarily, to secure a long term weakening. Third, it doesn't directly involve the Elves, which is the problem with the war option.

Boney · Jul 8, 2020

Alliterate said:
Any comments on this, @BoneyM ?
Is this almost a meta vote, shaping the fiction, or about 'making the truth', either of which would be presenting single options? As opposed to Mathilde with her expertise outlining the several possible options.

He's asking a direct question, and he wants a simple answer. There's only so much input you have here, and diluting your answer just means you let your opportunity to influence the future pass.

Guisarme said:
@BoneyM can we get a confirmation of if the ambassador has changed since we last talked?

You don't know. You had no idea it was something that would have been useful to know until just now.

Aranfan · Jul 8, 2020

Time to analyse the options.

BoneyM said:
[ ] The High King could make it so
This is likely to cause discontent within the Karaz Ankor.

This is very bad. Belegar and Thorgimm are already deeply divided, to the point Belegar worried about causing a civil war. Barak Varr being there too? Lordy. That might actually kick things off.

BoneyM said:
[ ] For sufficient concessions
This would weaken the Empire.

We are loyal to the empire and don't want them to be weakened.

BoneyM said:
[ ] They can make up for the loss in trade
This would weaken the Karaz Ankor and the Empire until the canals are complete.

This, however, is only a temporary weakness. And it ends with both stronger than before. So long as they do not have to face an existential crisis before the canals complete, they'll be fine and even better. IIRC, there is no existential crisis planned for the likely duration of the canal building. This also has the benefit of not wasting lives.

As such this is my favored option.

BoneyM said:
[ ] No, but they could help break the blockade
Barak Varr is the main force behind the project, and would not hesitate to deploy their navy in support of the Empire's to reopen trade routes.

Wait. Stop. What the fuck? Blockade? A blockade is very different from an embargo. A blockade is an act of war. That would mean Marienburg would actually be going to war with the Empire over this.

That changes things, if it's an actual blockade, then the war is there already and this is the option that should be picked. I hope it's just a turn of phrase.

BoneyM said:
[ ] No, but they would fight beside you
This could easily be spun as Elven sabotage of a Dwarven project. Dwarven pride would have the Throngs march alongside the Imperial Army, and Marienburg could be reclaimed.

Do you want War of Vengence 2: Manling Boogaloo? This is how you get War of Vengence 2: Manling Boogaloo. Do not pick this.

BoneyM said:
[ ] No, they cannot be dissuaded
It's hard to say what this would result in.

Ominous sounding! Lets not!

BoneyM said:
[ ] I don't know
Wash your hands of the matter.

The cowards way out. Especially since we know that at least some of the others are true.

me.me.here · Jul 8, 2020

An interesting note is that the Chamberlain has made it pretty clear that he would very much be in favor of pushing the canal through and taking military action against Marienburg if it weren't for the Empire's forces being depleted.

@BoneyM could we get an estimate for how long it would take for Wissenland or some of the other Provinces who have had military obligations to replenish or otherwise free up their forces? We might be able to get the KA to put a 1-2 year pause on the canals while the Empire builds up forces, which would probably be a bit of an easier sell than a flat out cancellation such as the Chamberlain asked about.

Also, on further thought I don't actually think the flat no is a mystery box - it'd be more of a case of the consequence being a cooling of relations between the KA and Empire, as it'd essentially be the KA hanging the Empire out to dry when circumstances didn't go their way.

Boney · Jul 8, 2020

Deathbybunnies said:
@BoneyM do we know what the treaties between Marienburg and Ulthuan actually say?

No.

Deathbybunnies said:
Also, is this vote just suggesting methods Mathilde thinks would work, or is part of it deciding whether the answers are correct or not? I'm seeing people supporting the idea of the Dwarves making up for it in internal trade, but I honestly don't know if that's even true.

He knows that Mathilde does not speak for the Dwarves, this is to the best of her knowledge.

Deathbybunnies · Jul 8, 2020

Bluntly, the Elves aren't stupid enough to start up The War of the Beard 2: Electric Boogaloo over Marienburg's trade. It makes them a lot of money, enough to justify defending them against an Empire without any magic users even, but Ulthuan is already insanely rich. It is not going to go to war with the Dwarves over this.

Garlak · Jul 8, 2020

fictionfan said:
It all depends on this they consider Marienburg "theirs" enough for this to be an elven pride thing. I don't think it they do, but we are not an expert on either Marienburg or elf politics.

Shame we don't have any rumor network in Ulthan. I give it even odds that they are already busy with something else right now which would really bring down the odds.

Could we -- Mathilde personally, I mean -- go and ask Daroir? The Nagarythean ambassador from Ulthuan? He actually kind of liked us, so maybe he might give us a more straight answer as to what is going on or what stance (if any at all) Ulthuan has on this.

EVA-Saiyajin · Jul 8, 2020

I'm pretty sure that the more hostile options wouldn't be immediately implemented. No, first they'll use the threat of it. And there will still be time for the Marienburgers to fold if they think it a bluff at first.

Boney · Jul 8, 2020

Aranfan said:
Wait. Stop. What the fuck? Blockade? A blockade is very different from an embargo. A blockade is an act of war. That would mean Marienburg would actually be going to war with the Empire over this.

That changes things, if it's an actual blockade, then the war is there already and this is the option that should be picked. I hope it's just a turn of phrase.

Most of the Empire's rivers flow through Marienburg. Them closing their gates is effectively a blockade.

SITB · Jul 8, 2020

DragonParadox said:
Yes, which is why those deeply anti dwarf Asur have already started an apocalyptic war with Karaz Ankor with all the myriad of excuses they have had over the last 3000 years and we are currently living in the Chaos soaked ruins of that battle... Wait.

This feel to me like protagonist arrogance. Of course we will restart the war between these two age old superpower that have maintained their peace for millennia. We are after all the center of the world.

Yeah, because there's obviously never been an Asur on Dawi fight during the entire 3000 years due to their lack of animosity.

Like, goddamn thinking that having two polities that institutionally really hate each other would turn the other cheek despite never being in their nature is "protagonist arrogance"? Even if it won't cause the next War of the Beard it would still be an extremely bloody conflict because both sides are unable to let an insult slide, especially not from what they consider their ancestral enemies.

DragonParadox · Jul 8, 2020

Garlak said:
Could we -- Mathilde personally, I mean -- go and ask Daroir? The Nagarythean ambassador from Ulthuan? He actually kind of liked us, so maybe he might give us a more straight answer as to what is going on or what stance (if any at all) Ulthuan has on this.

We do not even know if he is still ambassador and even if he were, it's not like he has any particular liking to Mathilde that would incline him to giving her in particular a straight answer

Godwinson · Jul 8, 2020

Hrm. I see now why the question of divulging dwarven secrets was a thing, because we technically have a favor that we could call in to get the Eonir on board with this, making any blockade breaking a dwarf/elf/human arrangement, and much less palatable for Ulthuan to go to war with.

fictionfan · Jul 8, 2020

Garlak said:
Could we -- Mathilde personally, I mean -- go and ask Daroir? The Nagarythean ambassador from Ulthuan? He actually kind of liked us, so maybe he might give us a more straight answer as to what is going on or what stance (if any at all) Ulthuan has on this.

We have no idea where he is right now. Also the empire certainly has others better able to get information on the elves then us. In fact almost anyone else is likely to have a better chance then a dwarf friend. The grudge between elves and dwarfs is not one sided.

Boney · Jul 8, 2020

Garlak said:
Could we -- Mathilde personally, I mean -- go and ask Daroir? The Nagarythean ambassador from Ulthuan? He actually kind of liked us, so maybe he might give us a more straight answer as to what is going on or what stance (if any at all) Ulthuan has on this.

He doesn't like Mathilde more than he is loyal to Ulthuan.

Guisarme · Jul 8, 2020

BoneyM said:
You don't know. You had no idea it was something that would have been useful to know until just now.

I say we ask if the ambassador is still from Nagarythe or not. The chamberlain should know, and any way to get an answer out of the elves would be massively helpful. Any thoughts?

Andres · Jul 8, 2020

Godwinson said:
Hrm. I see now why the question of divulging dwarven secrets was a thing, because we technically have a favor that we could call in to get the Eonir on board with this, making any blockade breaking a dwarf/elf/human arrangement, and much less palatable for Ulthuan to go to war with.

We have a favour with the Eonir? When? How?

LightLan · Jul 8, 2020

[ ] No, but they could help break the blockade

Barak Varr is interested in the Canal.
Also the Dwarves will not move their armies without first giving Marienburg the chance to avoid the Grudging. (as seen with Karak Kadrin)
Even just knowing that Barak Varr is considering joining into that conflict might make Marienburg reconsider.

DragonParadox · Jul 8, 2020

SITB said:
Yeah, because there's obviously never been an Asur on Dawi fight during the entire 3000 years due to their lack of animosity.

Like, goddamn thinking that having two polities that institutionally really hate each other would turn the other cheek despite never being in their nature is "protagonist arrogance"? Even if it won't cause the next War of the Beard it would still be an extremely bloody conflict because both sides are unable to let an insult slide, especially not from what they consider their ancestral enemies.

Yes that is my point, there have been flights small and localized that did not even make it into the history books because anything bigger would kill them both so yes the only real fear here is apocalyptic conflict and that fear has more than its fair share of arrogance to it.

Deathbybunnies · Jul 8, 2020

Aranfan said:
Wait. Stop. What the fuck? Blockade? A blockade is very different from an embargo. A blockade is an act of war. That would mean Marienburg would actually be going to war with the Empire over this.

That changes things, if it's an actual blockade, then the war is there already and this is the option that should be picked. I hope it's just a turn of phrase.

Exactly! The elves would march to defend their ally from the Empire attacking them, but if they've started a war themselves they aren't going to effectively support Marienburg attacking another ally.

Ultimately though...
[ ] No, but they could help break the blockade
Barak Varr is the main force behind the project, and would not hesitate to deploy their navy in support of the Empire's to reopen trade routes.
This is true. Mathilde is certain Barak Varr would act to protect their investment.

[ ] They can make up for the loss in trade
This would weaken the Karaz Ankor and the Empire until the canals are complete.
This is a guess. In fact, given that Mathilde thinks it would weaken both the Karaz Ankor and the Empire, it's arguably a lie.

Vebyast · Jul 8, 2020

BoneyM said:
"Not quite. They don't think like we do. A human is very good at convincing himself that he's in the right. A Dwarf will obsessively dwell on them being in the wrong. I suspect they find it literally impossible not to. So an Elector that is upset at the Emperor will convince himself why it's okay for him to divide Sigmar's Empire, but a Dwarven King upset at the High King will brood endlessly on how they are failing Grungni's Karaz Ankor. So instead of rebellion, you have a growing silence, until the King succumbs to despair and relations are normalized with the heir's ascension." You think of Belegar and suppress a wince. "So Karaz-a-Karak is able to project an image of unity because those that disagree are silenced by the shame of failing their Ancestors."

It's... weird and worrying that we had to explain this to him. It really seems like someone should have figured this out and written it down in the hundreds of years of diplomacy preceding Mathilde's involvement.

BoneyM said:
"Ulthuan," you say grimly.

"They've done quite well out of their partnership with Marienburg, and they're even less willing to give a straight answer than usual on the matter.

Elven ambassador has already been consulted with no luck.

BoneyM said:
[ ] They can make up for the loss in trade
This would weaken the Karaz Ankor and the Empire until the canals are complete.

I prefer this option. As people say, we don't want to even hint at another war. We also don't want to give up on the project, since in the long run the canals are a solution to the entire problem with Marienburg. We also don't want to further stress the unity of the Karaz Ankor.

That said, I'm surprised that we aren't at least informing the Chamberlain that some of these options exist before we recommend one. "Well, the Karaz Ankor as a whole will help you make up the deficit in the short term, since it's going to be offset in the long term. That said, Barak Varr wouldn't hesitate to smash Marienburg's navy for you, even if it increased tensions with Ulthuan."

Erandil · Jul 8, 2020

Marienburgs reaction seems a bit strong here, not like they wouldn't still be in a dominant position regarding trade even with those canals up and running, but I guess they take the view that it is easier to intervene now than do nothing and likely have a conflict down the line with a significantly weaker hand, not like the Empire is very shy about its opinion regarding the status of Marienburg.

One the one hand I would like to use this opportunity to return Marienburg back to the fold but at the same time the guy makes it pretty clear that the timing is pretty supoptimal and a lost war could be disastrous in many ways. The big question mark are the High Elves in my opinion, without them I feel fairly confident that the Empire could be victorious or at least exert enough pressure on Marienburg to go back to a more favourable situation, especially with the help of the dwarves, but if the High Elves actually second serious resources to the conflict I think even a victory would be so costly to not be worth it. I for one am not too optimistic about attacking a very difficult to attack city defended by the best magical experts and ranged weapon wielders surrounded by hostile territory and even dwarven ships are unlikely enough to counter elven supremacy at sea if the elves really want to force the issue, especially that far from their homeport. Speaking of dwarves, I think getting their support could be a two sided sword here, on the hand as I said I doubt Marienburg would resist a full scale attack by the dwarves and humans and I think the chances wouldn't be that bad that it actually folds relatively quickly if faced by a combined response of Empire and Karak Ankor yet at the same the dwarves can afford loses even less than the Empire and I fear that a large involvement of them could provoke a counter-reaction by the High Elves who have both their own grduges against the dwarves and probably wouldn't take a very favourable view on them muscling into what they view their zone of interest.

Which is why I think the economic assistance option is probably our best bet, both the the Empire and the Karak Ankor should be able to survive a period of weakness without to much trouble and in a decade or two we would likely be in a far stronger position to revisit the issue if we/the Empire wanted to while Marienburg would be weaker. (And it might give the Empire enough time to get the High Elves from getting to involved in the conflict which would make far more manageable).

Zero Gravitas said:
Does the Chamberlain know about the Empire part of the Waystone thing that Algard deduced - aka that Ulthuan syphons the magic in the Waystones?...

Because this seems like potentially relevant info...

Yeah, lets use some of the only safeguards against large scale Chaos effects as a political tool against the High Elves. No way that will go wrong... You start threatening stuff like that and not only are you hurting yourself but also risk a far heavier reaction from Ulthuan and I am pretty sure disastrous wouldn't be enough to describe the effects of that.

Garlak · Jul 8, 2020

I figured it was them not being willing or not caring enough to give an answer on the topic. Didn't think "He's more loyal to Ulthuan" would factor in, thus.

Alliterate · Jul 8, 2020

BoneyM said:
the Jade Order hunkered down, animating all the trees in their quarter of the city to strangle any other Wizard that tried to approach.

Panoramias Grandma was pretty badass, huh.

BoneyM said:
No. There might be some theoretically safer way of learning a spell if you're that astoundingly puissant, but if there is, the College doesn't know it.

Wait for it...
"Try it and find out"

EVA-Saiyajin said:
I'm pretty sure that the more hostile options wouldn't be immediately implemented. No, first they'll use the threat of it. And there will still be time for the Marienburgers to fold if they think it a bluff at first.

I could see this. This is us advising him (for example) that if and when it comes to a Blockade, and Empire trade being choked, what could he ask of and expect to get from his allies in the Karaz Ankor.
Could he ask for economic support?
Could he ask for blockade busting?
Could he ask the Dwarves to stop building the canals?

Which influences his calculus about how to handle Marienburghs threats of a blockade.

Boney · Jul 8, 2020

Guisarme said:
I say we ask if the ambassador is still from Nagarythe or not. The chamberlain should know, and any way to get an answer out of the elves would be massively helpful. Any thoughts?

If Ulthuan has decided to be silent on the matter, then he would sooner cut out his own heart and hand it to Mathilde than say one word. Loyalty to Ulthuan is what separates Nagarythians from Naggarothians.

Warhammer Fantasy: Divided Loyalties - an Advisor's Quest

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