I really don't think waiting on the Kepler is a good idea. It might get us some benefit in the long run (maybe), but we need more/better event responders if we want to avoid having to draw down on one of the border zones sometime soon.
The only actual problem with Briefvoice's plan I had was that the Indorian Starbase seemed a better idea, and he changed that so...
And that will hurt us more between now and the Kepler's replacement than waiting another two years while using the currently available science ships (also looking at outbreak of Cardassian war)?
We have had contact with the Cardassians for 12 years and haven't yet been at war. Laplace's rule of succession suggests about a 7.7% chance of war breaking out with them per year as a rough approximation. So the outbreak of a war is unlikely (14.8% chance) to fall into the ~two year window between prototype completion and the first round of mass production completing. Briefvoices current projections (based on starting now) have the Ambassador and Kepler mass production starting at around the same time, so delaying actually has the advantage of being able to afford more Ambassadors in the first round, so for a war that starts after the two year window mentioned delaying the Kepler is probably actually slightly better.
The +1 to mapping missions is substantial and matters quite a lot for colony site discovery chance, how much is hard to say without knowing the DCs, but based on widely varying event rewards there seem to be extra bonuses for hitting higher thresholds. +1 to mapping bonuses would increase the chance to hit DC 12 from 83.33% to 91.67%, DC 16 from 27.78% to 41.67% and make hitting DC 20 possible. About half of all science events seem to be mapping missions.
As I have already stated, the Kepler might get better if we wait a while, but we need it as early as possible. Soon, with the waves of new members, we will have a lot of new sectors and worlds to generate events. Currently our most efficient garrison ship are refitted Constellations. The two years added wait will result in either two more years our sectors will lack sufficient density of responders or two years where we build Constellations instead of better and more future proof Keplers.
I think weaker unrefitted Kepler are better than, in a dozen ingame years or so, ending up with Constellations at the end of their hulls lifespan that could have been Keplers, which would still have refit potential left at that point.
If we end up making Keplers capable of skirmishing and anti-mine operations we will also want them sooner rather than later.
I'm going to be honest, the only thing that would make me really want to delay working on the Kepler pending new technology would be the prospect of crew savings. If that's not in the cards, then the current statline is already good enough, and we can save any attempt to make it even better for the refit.
We've spent fifteen years of game time with the science vessel role utterly minimized, due to how painfully overspecialized and tiny the Oberths were. If we have a good science vessel design on offer, one that incorporates good technology and vastly outperforms everything else we have... are our interests really served by waiting? The vote balance seems to be overwhelmingly in favor of not waiting, which does in fact suggest that a lot of people have changed their minds about the merits of waiting until 2318.
If we already had a satisfactory science vessel in the short term and were just designing a replacement (this is more or less where we are with the Miranda-A), then I'd say waiting makes more sense. But that doesn't seem to be the case here.
As offered, the Keplers have Excelsior-grade event response, on the crew requirements of a cruiser. A cheap cruiser. Could they be better? Yes. But bluntly, we will always be able to say "wait two, or three, or five years and the ship will be better!"
[On a side note, *I* liked the Ferasa shipyard and LBZ starbase ideas. ]
Request new Starbase I [KBZ – Shrantet III] 25pp for KBZ
Request new Starbase I [Indoria] 27pp
Request Mining Colony at Kohl II, 16pp, 25 (30) br & 25 (35) sr /yr, 4 turns
Request Research Colony at Acacia V, 7pp 5 (7) rp/yr, 4 turns
Request Mining Colony at Piara V, 8pp, 25 (30) br/yr, 4 turns
Request Allocation for an Excelsior's resources, one-off-infusion of an Excelsior's cost, 40pp
Request Academy Development, 40pp (Gain +.5 Officers/Enlisted/Techs throughput)
Request Start of Science Frigate project, receiving one-off boost of Research Points and go-ahead for some projects, 10pp
Request new Tech Team to be added to your Ship Design Bureau, [Weapons and Offensive Doctrine] - 20pp
Request new Tech Team to be added to your Ship Design Bureau, [Starbase and Defensive Doctrine] - 20pp
Sponsor efforts to create Heavy Industrial park to reduce construction times by 25% in that system when making either a parallel or serial build, provides Heavy Industry options pre-SoE, 115pp (Mars in Sol System)
Request focused Diplomacy on a potential member species, 20pp (One affiliate or prospective race will undergo accelerate diplomacy) [Ashidi]
Request focused Diplomacy on a potential member species, 20pp (One affiliate or prospective race will undergo accelerate diplomacy) [The Tauni]
Request focused Diplomacy on a potential member species, 20pp (One affiliate or prospective race will undergo accelerate diplomacy) [Yan-Ros]
Request focused Diplomacy on a potential member species, 20pp (One affiliate or prospective race will undergo accelerate diplomacy) [Hishmeri Septs]
Acquire additional resources for Starfleet Intelligence Operations, 20pp (Will improve ops teams next time they are required)
Request new Starbase I [KBZ – Shrantet III] 25pp for KBZ
Request new Starbase I [indoria] 27pp for Indoria
Request Mining Colony at Kohl II, 16pp, +25 / +25 br/sr per year, 4 turns
Request Research Colony at Cronulla VI, 7pp 5 (7) rp/yr, 4 turns
Request Mining Colony at Piara V, 8pp, 25 (35) br/yr, 4 turns
Request Allocation for an Excelsior's resources, one-off-infusion of an Excelsior's cost, 40pp
Request Academy Development, 40pp (Gain +.5 Officers/Enlisted/Techs throughput)
Request new Tech Team to be added to your Ship Design Bureau, {Weapons and Offensive Doctrine] - 20pp
Request new Tech Team to be added to your Ship Design Bureau, {Starbase and Defensive Doctrine] - 20pp
Sponsor efforts to create Heavy Industrial park to reduce construction times by 25% in that system when making either a parallel or serial build, provides Heavy Industry options pre-SoE, 115pp (Mars in Sol System)
Request focused Diplomacy on a potential member species, 20pp (One affiliate or prospective race will undergo accelerate diplomacy) [Ashidi]
Request focused Diplomacy on a potential member species, 20pp (One affiliate or prospective race will undergo accelerate diplomacy) [The Tauni]
Request focused Diplomacy on a potential member species, 20pp (One affiliate or prospective race will undergo accelerate diplomacy) [Obar]
Request focused Diplomacy on a potential member species, 20pp (One affiliate or prospective race will undergo accelerate diplomacy) [Hishmeri Septs]
Acquire additional resources for Starfleet Intelligence Operations, 20pp (Will improve ops teams next time they are required)
Request new Shipyard at Ferasa, 22pp, (12 turns, 1 3mt Berth)
Now, as usual, let's delete all the stuff the plans have in common.
Aside from disagreeing about where to put the research colonies, which is basically irrelevant and I'm dropping it... Void Stalker pushes the Obar while Briefvoice pushes the Yan-Ros.
Obviously, Briefvoice is pushing for the Kepler.
Void Stalker's plan seems to still contain the shipyard at Ferasa while Briefvoice's doesn't, which makes me wonder what Briefvoice is doing with the extra 17 political will, unless I've made an error somewhere.
Request Start of Science Frigate project, receiving one-off boost of Research Points and go-ahead for some projects, 10pp
Request focused Diplomacy on a potential member species, 20pp (One
affiliate or prospective race will undergo accelerate diplomacy) [Yan-Ros]
Request focused Diplomacy on a potential member species, 20pp (One affiliate or prospective race will undergo accelerate diplomacy) [Obar]
Request new Shipyard at Ferasa, 22pp, (12 turns, 1 3mt Berth)
It says:
Sponsor efforts to create Heavy Industrial park to reduce construction times by 25% in that system when making either a parallel or serial build, provides Heavy Industry options pre-SoE, 115pp (pick world)
I interpret that to mean we get the benefits of the parallel or serial build AND a Heavy Industry team. Two things.
Ah, I see. @Random Member , who wrote that plan in the first place, ironically dropped the plan, 'orphaning' it from the point of view of someone who just clicked links in the tally.
That said, the current balance of votes is 23:5 , statistically pretty overwhelmingly in favor, to the point where I'm inclined to view it as a case of the majority looking back at "Kepler 2318" that they voted for months ago and saying "we know more now than we did then, let's change our minds."
I'm the one who's been running the technology tests and there's little to be gained from two years of research aside from survey sensors. At best we get to play around with the D stat using T2 Nacelles, but even there we don't necessarily reach D5 for designs that save elsewhere or D6 for designs that spend to the max and use the module.
That might change if T1 or T2 endurance parts suddenly appeared and were buildable, but there's been no sign of that.
I think we need an answer on how quick we can refit survey sensors on. If it is possible to do so shortly after the Kepler is researched and prototype is under way then I can support starting the Kepler now. If it is going to be a long wait then no I would want to wait two years as we have ways of increasing mapping events which lead to resource colonies.
We have had contact with the Cardassians for 12 years and haven't yet been at war. Laplace's rule of succession suggests about a 7.7% chance of war breaking out with them per year as a rough approximation. So the outbreak of a war is unlikely (14.8% chance) to fall into the ~two year window between prototype completion and the first round of mass production completing. Briefvoices current projections (based on starting now) have the Ambassador and Kepler mass production starting at around the same time, so delaying actually has the advantage of being able to afford more Ambassadors in the first round, so for a war that starts after the two year window mentioned delaying the Kepler is probably actually slightly better.
The +1 to mapping missions is substantial and matters quite a lot for colony site discovery chance, how much is hard to say without knowing the DCs, but based on widely varying event rewards there seem to be extra bonuses for hitting higher thresholds. +1 to mapping bonuses would increase the chance to hit DC 12 from 83.33% to 91.67%, DC 16 from 27.78% to 41.67% and make hitting DC 20 possible. About half of all science events seem to be mapping missions.
Your war probabilities assume the chance of a war starting is the same in any given year, which is nonsense. We were warned when we formed the GBZ that the chance of war between the Federation and Cardassians in the next five years were very high, and that was about four years ago. Plus the Cardassians are close to finishing a major wave of ships. So I'd wager the chances of war are significantly more than 15%.
I think we need an answer on how quick we can refit survey sensors on. If it is possible to do so shortly after the Kepler is researched and prototype is under way then I can support starting the Kepler now. If it is going to be a long wait then no I would want to wait two years as we have ways of increasing mapping events which lead to resource colonies.
Well, there's the precedent of the Centaur-A, in which the Centaurs received a major refit that greatly increased capabilities within a decade of commissioning and were swiftly refitted to the point where there's not really any point saying "Centaur-A" anymore because the entire class has been refitted and more ships of the class have been built WITH the refit than without it.
On the other hand, building ships without key systems and expecting to refit them in later is problematic if you're not careful... while also being a very common practice when done right.
Your war probabilities assume the chance of a war starting is the same in any given year, which is nonsense. We were warned when we formed the GBZ that the chance of war between the Federation and Cardassians in the next five years were very high, and that was about four years ago. Plus the Cardassians are close to finishing a major wave of ships. So I'd wager the chances of war are significantly more than 15%.
We once discussed what it looks like (my personal opinion was a blockier version of the Oracle-class from STO), but no, we've never properly designed a Kepler by appearance. We may have to wait for Lelia or Gravitas to design one.
Your war probabilities assume the chance of a war starting is the same in any given year, which is nonsense. We were warned when we formed the GBZ that the chance of war between the Federation and Cardassians in the next five years were very high, and that was about four years ago. Plus the Cardassians are close to finishing a major wave of ships. So I'd wager the chances of war are significantly more than 15%.
In before the Cardassians try to start a war, but Sulu has the Intelligence Ops team orbital dropped into a key installation to defang their whole offensive and cause them to slink off before it gets started.
I mean, when you think about it, "I have a chance to make this crisis go away," may be the most powerful Admiral ability we've ever seen!
I feel the best way to go about things would be to do this:
1. Update the Science Ship tactical req to include Survey Sensors
2. Which should trigger a Snakepit response for a Kepler Refit.
3. Then build ships to the new standard, don't worry about upgrading.
4. Upgrade at our leisure.
S7 vs S8 for mapping missions isn't easy to evaluate, since we don't know the DCs, but our regular non-Excelsior ships do pass them which means that the scenario where they're DC16+ can't really be true. And at only middling DCs, S7 vs S8 is not really substantial.
To be fair this is a good idea for events that really are uniformly likely to happen in any given year compared to any other (e.g. "will a hurricane hit this stretch of coast")
Less so for events where we are PRETTY sure that Oneiros isn't just rolling dice randomly to decide how the Cardassian Union government behaves.
In before the Cardassians try to start a war, but Sulu has the Intelligence Ops team orbital dropped into a key installation to defang their whole offensive and cause them to slink off before it gets started.
I mean, when you think about it, "I have a chance to make this crisis go away," may be the most powerful Admiral ability we've ever seen!
In before the Cardassians try to start a war, but Sulu has the Intelligence Ops team orbital dropped into a key installation to defang their whole offensive and cause them to slink off before it gets started.
I mean, when you think about it, "I have a chance to make this crisis go away," may be the most powerful Admiral ability we've ever seen!
In before the Cardassians try to start a war, but Sulu has the Intelligence Ops team orbital dropped into a key installation to defang their whole offensive and cause them to slink off before it gets started.
I mean, when you think about it, "I have a chance to make this crisis go away," may be the most powerful Admiral ability we've ever seen!
What are you talking about? There is no reason to think there are remote-facility trained non-member state individuals working on behalf of the Federation.
S7 vs S8 for mapping missions isn't easy to evaluate, since we don't know the DCs, but our regular non-Excelsior ships do pass them which means that the scenario where they're DC16+ can't really be true. And at only middling DCs, S7 vs S8 is not really substantial.
Yes, that means there are events that give colony discovery with at most DC14 being hit (I don't remember a Miranda discovering a colony site, if any did it would be at most DC13 for those). That doesn't mean there aren't also other events with higher DC, or that hitting higher thresholds doesn't give bonus rewards (I don't think any of our double colonies were discovered by a non-EC ship).