Ok, I think it is time for an effort-post. As some of you might already know there is currently a discussion going on discord regarding successor arts and I think it is time that we also talk about it here in the thread.
First let us recap some background information: As soon as we hit Green 4, we will be able to create our own successors for arts that we have completed. This will happen either during the training in turn 9 or in turn 10, so successor creation becomes possible either in turn 10 or turn 11.
Creating and training a successor is also a requirement for the breakthrough from Green 5 to Green 6, which is currently estimated to be possible somewhere between turn 20 and turn 22 (this can still change a lot as the quest goes on). The precise wording for that rule is "Successfully created and mastered a Successor art of at least Green 3 potency and a Max level of 5". However, we had this discussion with yrsillar yesterday:
it would make things quite a bit easier, i think if a 8 level successor that goes to G6 actually counts toward the breakthrough condition, even if it was not mastered
Yrsillar eh I want you to have to master the successor art, because otherwise there is always the risk that you'll spend an arc working on it, then decide to ignore it and snarl up the narrative flow I suppose I could say, must be mastered to the extent possible at G5 or something
heretical naths basically, you want that our first successor is not a throw-away art?
Yrsillar yeah p.much
This means that he will likely also accept big successor arts that go from Green 3 to Green 6 (such an art would likely have 5 or more levels between Green 3 and Green 5) for the breakthrough condition, as long as we don't try to cheese that extra leeway.
Now to the creation process: we will need to spend AP to do efficiency upgrades for the art so that we don't get overwhelmed by the meridian costs later. This will likely take about 3 AP per art. Then the art creation process according to the formula on the frontpage means that the creation process will have following costs:
If the original Art ends in Green 1: 9 AP for a 5-level art. +1 AP for every extra level
If the original Art ends in Green 2: 9 AP for a 5-level art. +1 AP for every extra level
If the original art ends in Green 3: 10 AP for a 5-level art. +1 AP for every extra level
This process will give us the successor with level 1 already trained, so that we can use it right away, but training it up will take at least another turn training.
As you can see the entire process is rather expensive and since the current rules say that the 4 AP per turn limit applies to this process too, it is also a slow process. We will need at least 3 turns for the creation process + 1 turn for the efficiency upgrades (unless we can still do it during the successor creation
@yrsillar?) + 1 turn to train it up from level 1 for about 4-5 turns from start to finish.
We also have another consideration: the big competition in this quest is not at the end of it (Turn 26), it is in turn 18 (note: we were assured that we still have the turn 18 training before the competition). If we want that a cool new successor can shine in that competition, then we need to start ~turn 13-14 at the very latest. In addition, this means that all 'let us do this after the tournament' arguments mean that the art would get use only in turn 23 at the earliest, maybe later. This means that those arts no longer matter for the breakthrough and that they will get almost no narrative relevance during the main events in this quest.
Ok now that we have the background, let us look at the arts that we could make a successor for:
We have currently have FVM, FSS, TRF, HDW, SES, ENM and AM as possible candidates, so let us look at them (note: I admit that I am a bit biased here, but I think this will still be a decent overview)
FVM: This is the first music art we got, and it is Ling Qi's signature move like no other art we have. It got a lot of narrative focus over time and it is also quite powerful all things considered. This of course makes it a very good candidate for a successor in principle. The biggest problem the art has or had is that people really wanted an 8-level successor for it, because the original art has 8 levels. This would likely mean it would end in Green 6 and therefore become unviable for the breakthrough condition. If yrsillar actually allows FVM+ to count for the breakthrough condition, then this is no longer a problem. Another problem raised during discussions was that FVM+ would directly compete against the new BKSD in out build. My opinion is that I care far more about FVM than about BKSD. BKSD gets enough time to shine during the time we are creating FVM+ (remember, it is a slow process), so I would be ok with this trade-off.
FSS: This is another music art we got and while not as iconic as FVM it got a lot of narrative focus as well. It is also our current big dps art. The successor creation arc should work well with Hanyi to continue the Zeqing/Hanyi plotline. Both, narrative reasons and practical value, make FSS+ a good successor art too. The main arguments against it are similar to FVM: we wanted more than 5 levels, which might have made it unviable for the breakthrough rule, but if yrsillar allows it, then this is no longer a concern. Another argument against it is that it would compete against UGM. However, UGM, while also a cold DPS art, is different enough from FSS that we should be able to find utility for both of them and there should be less of a meridian conflict, because we have little competition for arm meridians.
TRF: This is our current defense art. It got less attention than the previous two arts, but it still appeared in the narrative quite a bit and it really helped us a lot in fights. So, while not as narrative relevant as the previous two arts, it is still a decent choice in principle. As far as I know, no one really had a problem with making it a 5-level art that ends in Green 5, so there is no problem here either. However, the art does have a practical problem, because we are already intending to use SNR to replace it, as SNR is built to be equally good against Physical and Spiritual, while TRF is more built against Physical. SNR ends in G4, true, but isn't it more practical to just go for SNR+ after that instead? This is why some looked into turning TRF+ away from an armor art into a resist/sustain art.
We got this as answer to it:
Mm, that might be stretching a bit, but you might manage that since you have that other wood resist art for ling qi to draw from
So, it shouldn't be impossible (but we probably should master SES if we want to do this). This idea does have a problem: it would be directly competing with the archive art we intended to get from the archive next turn (both would be Resist arts and be G3-G5). Spending 12 AP for the creation of an art + several AP training only to make an art that does about the same as an art we already use sounds like a waste, so if we really want this, then we cannot get a resist art from the archive. Even if we start the creation in turn 10 (assuming we do get the breakthrough to G4 in turn 9), then we would only get a new resist art from turn 13-14 onwards (depending on how useful the art is at level 1).
AM: huh, what is an Argent doing here? But seriously, this art also contributed quite a bit to the narrative (sincerity and all that). However, no one really wants the argents back and we already have a new perception art that we are happy with. In addition, AM+ would likely be a G2-G4 art, which is also not what we want by the time we get to make it.
HDW: HDW is our unfortunate social perception/combat buff hybrid music art. It has a rather cool perception tech and I don't think anyone is actively against its themes, but its buffs techs never saw real application and it had little narrative contribution (not nothing, but it is by far not as prominent as the previously mentioned arts). I don't think anyone would mind making it a 5-level art, if we made it at all. We already have more than enough good social arts, so we don't need another one, but a potential HDW+ could still be turned into a full support music art (that hopefully doesn't suck) and we were just talking about wanting more support, so while I don't know anyone who would be too enthusiastic about it, HDW+ is still a valid compromise candidate.
SES: SES is our resist music art and it is for the purpose of art creation basically a worse HDW. It has even less narrative presence, Resist in the form of a music art is somewhat awkward for the narrative as Ling Qi needs to interrupt her current song to play SES and overall the theme had less support than HDW. Even those who want to make a resist art would prefer to turn TRF into one than to go for SES+.
ENM: This art has even less narrative presence than the above arts, mostly because we didn't have it particularly long yet, but it is still true. ENM also has the problem that Wind Thief does everything ENM does but better. The only advantage of ENM is that it has the Fade keyword and I guess the fact that LFWT+ENM gives more stealth than LFWT alone. The way I see it, ENM's main appeal was stronger when we still needed the successor to end in G5 mainly for those who wanted neither TRF+ nor HDW+. On a personal note, I also like the idea of a Grinning/Hidden/Dreaming Moon based stealth art much more than the current ENM theme. Especially Erebeal had some cool ideas.
We could of course also take one of the as of now untrained archive 1 arts, but those would have even less narrative presence than ENM, so I really dont think they are worth considering for this.
Another thing I want to mention is the possibility of making more than one successor: We could for example make both FVM+ and FSS+ before the competition, but we need to be aware that this is going to const quite a bit of AP to do.
And a last thing to mention: It is likely that the first selfmade successor is special, at least from the narrative pov, so we really should make sure that the first successor is something we actually want to use and we should make it early enough that it has time to shine in the story.