You mistake what "effective range" means

The argument still stands. Since the comparison range is a continuous stream of fire, i.e. basically nothing. Dragons will have to enter the effective range of scorpions, and if they are present, of multiple scorpions even, if they want to fight directly.

It is also worth noting that building a large number of siege machines and maintaining them in combat condition is a very difficult and expensive task, you can not just "spam" scorpions in the hope of a lucky shot.

Sure you can, it's all just a question of how many resources you're pouring into it. You're right: Most scorpions will just get burned upon contact. But if you lose a hundred scorpions for a dragon, a WMD of very limited and quasi-irreplaceable numbers, then you still come out way ahead. And for that matter, don't think it would be impossible to man them then. You wouldn't even need an extraordinarily fanatical army for it. Tactical positions with an exception of a more than even mortality rate in battle have been part of the tactical standard reportoire of armies for millennia - like the first wave you throw at a wall, for example. There are established means and ways of dealing with that.

It will be costly, it will involve a lot of luck, but ultimately, it is doable, and a downed enemy dragon justifies nearly any cost.
...actually a lesson we might need to learn on the defending side, eventually, come to think of it...

Now of course, you are right in that strategies can develop further. Had we seen more "asymetrical" warfare against dragons, then we might have seen an arms race of strategies and tactics. But we never did - basically all Westerosi conflicts involving dragons, except for the Dornish wars, involved dragons on both sides instead.
 
Considering that Bennard ended his regency with an attempted usurpation, it might not be the best idea to tie the crown's ally (whose family also has a record of backing usurpers, against which the crown objected strongly) to him?
I'm mostly working off assumptions from lack of mention of anyone else of note being at Winterfell. One of the reasons I wanna wingman is to suss out any problematic traits among the three brothers. Rhea only just got out of bad breakup and I'd like to help her avoid another husband with delusions of grandeur or unnecessary ambitions .
 
The argument still stands. Since the comparison range is a continuous stream of fire, i.e. basically nothing. Dragons will have to enter the effective range of scorpions, and if they are present, of multiple scorpions even, if they want to fight directly.
No, the effective range of dragonfire (The range at which it will reduce the bolt thrower and its crew to charred skeletons) is going to be higher than the effective range of the bolt thrower against the dragon (The range at which they can reliably shoot it in spots that will actually hurt it, which is apparently the eye)
Because as previously discussed, the smaller bolt throwers apparently do not have the power necessary to reliably wound a dragon

It doesn't matter if the maximum range of a bolt thrower is two bowshot lengths and dragonfire has a maximum range of a quarter of a bowshot
The effective range favors the dragon

Especially given we're talking about dragonflame
This isn't just some stream of fire, dragonflame is intense enough to melt stone fortresses
Convection and overpressure are often ignored when it comes to fictional fire hazards
A sudden blast of dragonflame doesn't just wash over you and then leave you flailing around screaming
The pressure wave will blow you off your feet, and then you'll explode
Even if you're outside of the direct stream of fire you'll be cooked like a pig on a spit
 
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Because as previously discussed, the smaller bolt throwers apparently do not have the power necessary to reliably wound a dragon

No, as we discussed, and as I specifically said before, which you seem to ignore, it doesn't seem the size of the bolt makes much of a difference here. You need to hit the right parts anyway, so might as well go with lighter torsion weapons. This whole thing that the weapon needs to be big to be effective is completely a spook made up from scratch by you.
 
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ASOIAF calls them scorpions because Roman scorpios are the most well known ballistae
There isn't an equivalent for giant fantasy bolt throwers because they don't exist

As for why I'm getting the idea that ASOIAF bolt throwers are all massive
I didn't

I said that "realistic" ballistae do not have the effective range or power to threaten a dragon
Especially when fired upwards into the sky
Historically, such weapons had ranges of at least hundreds of meters; a fairly basic, standard weapon in the category of Greek katapeltes and Roman ballistae would have parameters like "can throw a javelin farther than a man can shoot an arrow." If it's at least theoretically possible for a dragonrider to be hit by an arrow while flying, it's theoretically possible for their dragon to be hit by a ballista.

Something supported in universe by Meleys, who was repeatedly peppered by scorpions and shrugged them off with little injury

If you need a one in a million shot to the eye to wound and kill then that is indeed a very ineffective weapon you have there
A one in a million shot to the eye is clearly instantly fatal to a dragon.

This does not mean that no other shot could possibly harm the dragon. Punching holes in the wing tissue, for example, is at least going to inconvenience them and forces the dragonrider to think about breaking off the action and giving the dragon some time to recover. It's not clear to me whether dragon scales are supposed to be completely impenetrable from all angles, either, and sticking a javelin-sized dart into a dragon's body may not hit anything vital but it's still a wound, with all the possibility for injury to muscle and nerve tissue and (maybe, theoretically) wound infection that one might expect from any injury to a large animal.

Though now that you've got me on the subject
Game of Thrones and House of the Dragon definitely decided that these things were unreasonably large

Though even sticking strictly to ASOIAF
Apparently the ones that Morian Martell used against the dragons in the 4th Dornish war are described as "Massive"
Although by the Fourth Dornish War, one expects that the Dornishmen will have been refining their trainable/swivel-mounted ballista designs for quite a while. The success in the first war would be enough to motivate that, even well beyond the point where it makes economical sense.
 
If we are talking about scorpions, you will have at best one shot before the dragon gets to you and burns you to the ground. And this will not be an aimed shot, but a shot in "that general direction", so you cannot train your people to hit even a stationary flying target, even if we take not into account the accuracy of the machines themselves and the impossibility of accurately determining the distance, and therefore the position of the target in space and its distance to you. In the case of a castle, you will definitely have blind spots, where you can at best place one or two machines, and if, for example, the dragon decides to attack the walls from below, you basically will not be able to stop it. It is also worth noting that building a large number of siege machines and maintaining them in combat condition is a very difficult and expensive task, you can not just "spam" scorpions in the hope of a lucky shot.

Not to mention that the rider can wait and attack in the dark of night when you basically will not have a chance to react in time. Or not get within breathing distance at all, pelting you with rocks and burning logs, maybe even wildfire. That's why killing a dragon with a skilled rider is a miracle. I can imagine Rhaenys might not see the point in being especially careful against Dornish weapons, but I don't think her mistake will be repeated.

To summarize this entire discussion:

The true reason is that Queen Rhaenys was a massive dragon-riding jobber /j
 
It doesn't matter if the maximum range of a bolt thrower is two bowshot lengths and dragonfire has a maximum range of a quarter of a bowshot
The effective range favors the dragon
I don't think Meraxes would agree with that statement.

Especially given we're talking about dragonflame
This isn't just some stream of fire, dragonflame is intense enough to melt stone fortresses
Convection and overpressure are often ignored when it comes to fictional fire hazards
A sudden blast of dragonflame doesn't just wash over you and then leave you flailing around screaming
The pressure wave will blow you off your feet, and then you'll explode
Even if you're outside of the direct stream of fire you'll be cooked like a pig on a spit
Nothing you just said has much to do with the effective range of dragonfire. Regardless of how hot the actual visible flames are, the nature of convection heating and overpressure is that they drop off fairly rapidly away from the source. If the visible dragonfire is dissipating 300 feet from the dragon's snout, then convection isn't carrying lethal heat another 300 feet farther than that in the direction the dragon was breathing, or for that matter any direction.

Remember the part where you can open an oven door without getting agonizing burns? That's because convection doesn't carry infinite heat and doesn't carry it infinitely quickly.

To summarize this entire discussion:

The true reason is that Queen Rhaenys was a massive dragon-riding jobber /j
Given that literal-mindedly we can be fairly sure she wasn't a jobber (this is the same woman who forced the surrender of kings and slew thousands with her dragon in large scale battle), it comes down to:

"Queen Rhaenys was a massive dragon-riding jobber"
"No, ballistas actually do have a slim chance of taking down dragons and she just rolled, like, double snake eyes."
 
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"Queen Rhaenys was a massive dragon-riding jobber"
"No, ballistas actually do have a slim chance of taking down dragons and she just rolled, like, double snake eyes."

I see. So, she doesn't suck.

Her luck does.

I don't know what's worse for her character lmao

Either way, poor Rhaenys, getting the short end of the narrative stick because she was the one holding the single (1) Emotional Intelligent braincell between all 3 Conquerors.

(also I went to read the ASOIAF wiki, has there ever been any reason why Rhaenys didn't kill Princess Meria? I'm guessing it was a parley and she didn't go "well negotiations have broken down anyways, here we go, dragon BBQ"? I'm also mildly but perhaps more surprised than I should be that Rhaenys didn't kill the women and children left in the Dornish keeps that told her the men were away lmao she wasn't Maegor Senior)
 
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I see. So, she doesn't suck.

Her luck does.

I don't know what's worse for her character lmao

(also I went to read the ASOIAF wiki, has there ever been any reason why Rhaenys didn't kill Princess Meria? I'm guessing it was a parley and she didn't go "well negotiations have broken down anyways, here we go, dragon BBQ"? I'm also mildly but perhaps more surprised than I should be that Rhaenys didn't kill the women and children left in the Dornish keeps that told her the men were away lmao she wasn't Maegor Senior)
Maegor was Visenya's kid, and took after his mother quite heavily. Rhaenys was always the kindest and gentlest of the three conquerors, which isn't saying alot to all the people she burned with Meraxes but she was far less willing to do shit like kill people to send a message when not in active combat.
 
Maegor was Visenya's kid, and took after his mother quite heavily. Rhaenys was always the kindest and gentlest of the three conquerors, which isn't saying alot to all the people she burned with Meraxes but she was far less willing to do shit like kill people to send a message when not in active combat.

Yup, I know. I was just looking it from the lens of them wanting to crush Dorne, but I suppose before her ultimately death it wasn't... as personal(?) to start genociding noncombatants with dragonfire (a pretty horrible way to die)

IIRC Maegor's hangups (at least a little bit) were daddy issues from Aegon loving Rhaenys more and thus respecting the fact her kid was born first despite her death and let Aenys be King? Even over the more "proper" Heir he considered himself to be, but whom came from Visenya?

But yes, I agree, between all 3 of them she was like the lesser evil.
 
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(also I went to read the ASOIAF wiki, has there ever been any reason why Rhaenys didn't kill Princess Meria? I'm guessing it was a parley and she didn't go "well negotiations have broken down anyways, here we go, dragon BBQ"? I'm also mildly but perhaps more surprised than I should be that Rhaenys didn't kill the women and children left in the Dornish keeps that told her the men were away lmao she wasn't Maegor Senior)

I suppose at that stage of the invasion there just was no perceived need to. The Targaryens rolled in with a massive army. That the Dornish could evade them at every corner was odd, but hey, the Dornish would eventually run out of land to hide in. Even without Geneva Conventions in place, it just wasn't anything yet that would call for reprisal killings of the civilian population. Just no reason at all. In fact, with every seat being overtly yielded to the Targaryens, it must seem to them like running from success to success, just in a very strange way.

It was only when Aegon left again that the people rose against his stadholder, Lord Rosby, that the Dornish strategy bore fruits and the Targaryen gains were fully reversed within a short time. And after that, well, there were no more Targaryen troops on the ground to kill the women and children left behind in the seats. There were only attacks from the air anymore, and those did in fact burn everything down, especially after Rhaenys' death.

Basically, you could say, Rhaenys (and Aegon himself) was too surprised by events to start reprisal killings :p
 
[X] Plan The Outdoor Winterfell Experience
-[X] [Conversation] Speak with Lord Rickon Stark
-[X] [Action] Take Part in a Hunt
-[X] [Action] Study Music
 
Sure you can, it's all just a question of how many resources you're pouring into it. You're right: Most scorpions will just get burned upon contact. But if you lose a hundred scorpions for a dragon, a WMD of very limited and quasi-irreplaceable numbers, then you still come out way ahead. And for that matter, don't think it would be impossible to man them then. You wouldn't even need an extraordinarily fanatical army for it. Tactical positions with an exception of a more than even mortality rate in battle have been part of the tactical standard reportoire of armies for millennia - like the first wave you throw at a wall, for example. There are established means and ways of dealing with that.

The thing is, you have limited siege material. Especially if we're talking about Dorne. If you spend it on anti-dragon weapons, you won't have enough for your own catapults, in which case the dragon can wait until your scorpions destroy the rocks. Or attack another place where you don't have hundreds of scorpions prepared. Or, as I noted, attack at night, when the besiegers simply won't have time to prepare their weapons for firing before they're covered in flames.

Historically, such weapons had ranges of at least hundreds of meters; a fairly basic, standard weapon in the category of Greek katapeltes and Roman ballistae would have parameters like "can throw a javelin farther than a man can shoot an arrow." If it's at least theoretically possible for a dragonrider to be hit by an arrow while flying, it's theoretically possible for their dragon to be hit by a ballista.

As was said, the firing range does not actually reflect the effective firing distance, which is often several times lower, and it further decreases depending on the firing angle.

If I were to try to condense my position, it would be "No, medieval siege warfare cannot fight dragons with even minimal effectiveness. No, this does not mean that as a dragon rider, you and your dragon are fundamentally invulnerable. Use your head for more than just attacks head-on."
 
Yup, I know. I was just looking it from the lens of them wanting to crush Dorne, but I suppose before her ultimately death it wasn't... as personal(?) to start genociding noncombatants with dragonfire (a pretty horrible way to die)

IIRC Maegor's hangups (at least a little bit) were daddy issues from Aegon loving Rhaenys more and thus respecting the fact her kid was born first despite her death and let Aenys be King? Even over the more "proper" Heir he considered himself to be, but whom came from Visenya?

But yes, I agree, between all 3 of them she was like the lesser evil.
Maegors issues could have come from a host of things, from what you described, to the fact he may have been a blood magic baby, to the fact the brother he loved was constantly being hounded by ungrateful and scheming subjects and Aenys never did anything about it, to the fact that he had a traumatic head injury that left him comatose which may have altered his personality significantly. Hell he even had legitimate political reasons for doing some of the things he did like destroying the Faith Millitant to curb their power and assert Targaeryan authority. He's a complex figure in that regard.

And yeah as you say, there was less of a reason to go scorched earth on Dorne when they wanted to conquer them more than they wanted to punish them.
 
Nothing you just said has much to do with the effective range of dragonfire. Regardless of how hot the actual visible flames are, the nature of convection heating and overpressure is that they drop off fairly rapidly away from the source. If the visible dragonfire is dissipating 300 feet from the dragon's snout, then convection isn't carrying lethal heat another 300 feet farther than that in the direction the dragon was breathing, or for that matter any direction.

Remember the part where you can open an oven door without getting agonizing burns? That's because convection doesn't carry infinite heat and doesn't carry it infinitely quickly.
It matters because Susano gave me the impression that they're imagining dragon hovering in the air and spewing a sustained stream of fire down at a scorpion to destroy it, presenting an opportunity for the crew to try to get a shot or two off as the dragon sits in the air

I don't think so
If dragon fire can melt fortress walls into molten rock in a handful to some tens of seconds, then it doesn't need to concentrate on a scorpion and its crew like that

You get briefly caught in a dragons breath and all the liquid content in your body vaporizes instantly and you explode
You stand within a dozen yards of the fire and you will get cooked alive and suffocate
That's not a flamethrower, it's a death ray

A dragon vs a scorpion doesn't look like the dragon swinging by, taking a deep breath and then burning the siege engine
It looks like the dragon briefly passing overhead and as it flys by it breathes fire downward in front of it or off to the side and everything in a line some 15 - 20 meters wide and some 100 meters long is just gone, consumed by a swirling hellstorm of fire, there's not even bones left
 
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The thing is, you have limited siege material. Especially if we're talking about Dorne. If you spend it on anti-dragon weapons, you won't have enough for your own catapults, in which case the dragon can wait until your scorpions destroy the rocks.
I'm not sure Dorne is actually poor, but... If my dragons only attack your positions after my own siege train is already in a position to reduce them, I lose a lot of the operational advantages of having dragons. Because I have to maneuver a large, slow-moving army dependent on resupply across the terrain to get to your strongpoint, and my supply lines are vulnerable to your raiding, and my dragons have to spend all their time camped out with the army, and I'm having to pay a double logistical burden to feed both the dragons and the siege train.

Normally, dragons substitute for a medieval siege train, and in fact do so rather well- they're the equivalent of batteries of cannons and have a similar effect on the viability of medieval fortifications, only more so.

The thing is, even having cannons when the enemy did not didn't mean your soldiers were literally immortal; once in a while a gun would just straight-up explode due to an accident, or the enemy would launch a sally that could destroy the cannons, or something. Dragons, likewise, confer military supremacy but not invulnerability.

Or attack another place where you don't have hundreds of scorpions prepared. Or, as I noted, attack at night, when the besiegers simply won't have time to prepare their weapons for firing before they're covered in flames.

As was said, the firing range does not actually reflect the effective firing distance, which is often several times lower, and it further decreases depending on the firing angle.
Well, the underlying proposition isn't so much "I can just straightforwardly counter a dragon with hundreds of massed scorpion/ballistae," it's "repeatedly attacking positions defended by scorpions/ballistae may result in one of them taking you and/or your dragon down eventually if you do it over and over for many years."

A lot depeends on what you even mean by concepts like "effective" and "ineffective." If a contest between "dragonrider" and "castle defended by a few ballistae" ends in favor of the dragonrider 999 times out of 1000, the following two statements are true at the same time:

1) Relying on a castle with ballistae to fend off a dragon is ineffective, and also
2) Relying on the fact that you personally have a dragon to enable you to conquer an entire continental landmass may not end well for you personally.

...

On a side note, the arguments "the angle of attack can make the dragonrider immune" and "just attack at night" kind of fall flat due to the practical constraints.

First, dragons aren't hummingbirds; they cannot fly in any and every arbitrary direction with equal ease. If I come in against a castle at a very steep dive so that I spend most of my attack run above the effective ceiling of torsion artillery on the walls and towers, I may be in more danger from my dragon failing to pull out of the dive and crashing into the ground than I would be from just taking my chances with the darts of the artillery in a lower-angle approach.

Second, not only are dragons not hummingbirds, but I'm pretty sure dragons aren't owls, either. They don't see perfectly well in the dark. If I make a habit of flying with my dragon at night over unfamiliar (enemy) terrain, there some nontrivial risk of a controlled flight into that terrain, and once again, I am worse off than if I'd just taken my chances with the torsion artillery.

We already know that the Conquerors' dragons were somewhat limited by flying conditions, because for instance at the Battle of the Last Storm, Rhaenys and Meraxes had to fight on the ground because Meraxes couldn't take to the air effectively in an intense rainstorm.

If I were to try to condense my position, it would be "No, medieval siege warfare cannot fight dragons with even minimal effectiveness. No, this does not mean that as a dragon rider, you and your dragon are fundamentally invulnerable. Use your head for more than just attacks head-on."
The way this is actually portrayed in the setting is "medieval weapons cannot fight dragons with any realistic chance of success, but if you keep pushing the attack with a dragon again and again and try to wipe out literally 100 or 1000 castles, there is a small but significant chance that eventually someone will win the lottery and get a shot off that kills you, your dragon, or both."

...That's not a flamethrower, it's a death ray

A dragon vs a scorpion doesn't look like the dragon swinging by, taking a deep breath and then burning the siege engine
It looks like the dragon briefly passing overhead and as it flys by it breathes fire downward in front of it or off to the side and everything in a line some 15 - 20 meters wide and some 100 meters long is just gone, consumed by a swirling hellstorm of fire, there's not even bones left
Well, yes.

Which is why, as a ballista operator, you probably only get one shot (unless the dragon death-rays the position 30 meters off to your left and doesn't hit you on that firing pass or something).

Look, to be very clear, this kind of warfare is, to paraphrase a traumatized military survivor in H. G. Wells' War of the Worlds, "bows and arrows against the lightning!"

It's just that we've seen dragons and their riders injured and even killed by medieval projectile weapons, and this includes some of the most experienced combat dragonriders in post-Doom history. Visenya got shot in the shoulder with an arrow at the Field of Fire. Rhaenys was taken down by a ballista shot when she had more actual flight hours than her brother and sister put together. It happens.
 
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Screw it, approval voting for three options because I can't decide:
[X] Plan: The Partial Winterfell Experience (Hunt Version)
-[X] [Conversation] Speak with Lord Rickon Stark
-[X] [Conversation] Speak with Rhea Royce
-[X] [Action] Take Part in a Hunt

[X] Plan The Outdoor Winterfell Experience
-[X] [Conversation] Speak with Lord Rickon Stark
-[X] [Action] Take Part in a Hunt
-[X] [Action] Study Music

[X] Plan The Hunter, The Judge, and The Lady.
-[X] [Conversation] Speak With Lady Gilliane Glover
-[X] [Action] Take Part in a Hunt
-[X] [Action] Take Part in a Judgement
 
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*Sigh* 3 actions just doesn't feel like enough.....

To be fair, for the Judgement AND the Hunt we'd be talking with Lord Stark either way - he'd be the lead on the Judgement and he'd be the main host of the Hunt, we'd be talking with him at least somewhat on either one. Plus the intro talk on arrival should mean together we'd have a decent amount of time with him so we don't necessarily need to dedicate an entire action to it.

Same with Rhea and the hunt, she'd almost certainly be on that too, so between the dragon flight there and back and talking with her on the hunt that should be enough with the 3 action limit.

While we haven't had any convo's with a Lord's wife and with Cregan almost certainly inheriting young (there'd be no reason for that to be butterflied away) makes a strong argument for a talk with Lady Stark

And a Judgement will be good practice for taking court and if we're going for Master of Laws.

The Northern Way is just better in medieval society - the person who passes the sentence should swing the sword, kind of a "if you can't bring yourself to kill a man then perhaps said man did not deserve to die" thing. With a headsmen it's just saying some words, doing it yourself you had to look them in the eye and listen to their last words.

[X] Plan The Hunter, The Judge, and The Lady.
-[X] [Conversation] Speak With Lady Gilliane Glover
-[X] [Action] Take Part in a Hunt
-[X] [Action] Take Part in a Judgement

I should note her main mentor is pushing for a Conquest of Dorne.

Should actually end up doing that

Visenya Reborn takes vengeance for Visenya's fallen sister.

Plus we're crafting a martial focused character, would be a shame not to use it.

"They Bowed, They Bent, They Broke"
- Queen Rhaenyra I "Dornebane" Targaryen
 
I really think the Gillane Glover action is the most pertinent action, a positive view from her is going to pass on more strongly to young Cregan and above everything else this Progress is about our Succession. We will not succeed in obtaining a stable realm, but lords and their Heirs are both important people to connect with. Additionally Gilliane is likely a much more capable ruler than many others we're going to meet, and the blurb with the action indicates she probably is more readily informative on the realities of the North.
 
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