But for real how believable was the "Dorne guerrilla warfare'd the dragons" excuse? Like, from kinda similar IRL examples?

I mean I live in a tropical country so I know zilch about deserts but I highly doubt (x) they could have fit their entire population into cave/tunnel systems and even IRL with phones, internet and stuff evacuating cities is still a tall task. So my question is, does the "they hid in the caves/tunnels" reason imply that Dorne nobility straight up went into hiding, left the small folk as bait to be burned by the dragons, and just kept the army?
I think the idea is that Dragons don't hold territory very well, you still need the traditional army for that
And Dorne just refused to commit to any open battle where dragons were around, ambushing supply lines and then fading into the deserts and mountain passes instead

Whether that would have actually been enough in the long run... I don't know

I don't think this is really a battle that can be won on guerilla warfare alone if it really came down to it
My inexpert understanding of these things is that guerilla warfare generally can't properly "win" wars, rather they stall the opponent until they give up by making it too frustrating and expensive to keep going

Which might be what happened
Aegon might have had to call it quits because the army's morale was too low, because plague broke out among the encampment (common in armies due to sanitation issues and cramped conditions), because the lords back home were starting to raise a fuss about all their men being away for too long and the fields going fallow and we need the harvests to come in before Winter or there's going to be a shortage and-

By denying Aegon an open battle where he could crush them quickly and cleanly, Dorne could have feasibly drawn things out long enough for enough problems to crop up that Aegon had to call the invasion off

Though on the other hand...

Well, here's the problem. With dragons, you can trash large cities and castles on a large scale. It's not completely risk-free (as Queen Rhaenys found out rather fatally in the First Dornish War), but you can do it.

The thing is, in any medieval society, most of the population doesn't actually live in those cities. They live in the surrounding villages that grow food (in a desert this may only be happening around the oases and rivers but it still happens), which is then shipped into the cities to sustain them. Often the cities are actually not self-sustaining in population, with disease outbreaks regularly killing large fractions of the city. Then the place has to be replenished by migrants from rural areas where there are nearly always some families an able-bodied family member that they can't feed in a bad harvest year for lack of land, and they might as well tell the boy to go into the city to seek his fortune and hope for the best...

So even if you burn down every city in Dorne, you've probably only actually killed 5-10% of the population, especially since people will be fleeing those cities back into the countryside as word spreads of what you are doing.

If you want to go farther and burn every village in Dorne, you're going to be at it for years and years of nonstop hunting down and destroying villages. Because there are thousands of the little things, given that the overall population of Dorne is at least a couple of million. And some of them are very remote, and you're working your dragon pretty hard just flying all over the place looking for them, and you (and the dragon) have to sleep some time and that's a bad time to be ambushed by Dornish warriors, and so on and so on.
Sure, personally flying around to burn every single square inch of land to flush out all resistance isn't a very feasible thing to do
You don't really have to do that though

Dorne's armies need to be supplied somehow
And especially in a place like an arid desert, you just need to control the key areas that produce sufficient food and resources
If they've given up on actually meeting you in battle and stopping your forces because they know they can't, then just march in and take over
Hang around with your dragon for a few months while your army takes over the fortifications and builds some of their own for good measure, get really entrenched right in their breadbasket
Sure you and your dragon probably have better things to do than hang around forever, but once things are set up properly and word can be sent to you relatively quickly should Dorne's army start properly massing up in an attempt to reclaim key territory, you don't need to hang around

Farmlands take a lot of effort to create, and they're pretty obvious, especially from the sky
They're not going to be able to just create a whole new irrigation network and grow new food in the time they have before starvation
Force them to meet you in open battle, or else starve

All the nobles having gone into hiding also means that they're decentralized and cannot rule effectively
They've effectively abandoned the citizenry when they up and left
Start setting up your own government in their house if they aren't going to stop you
Start crowing from the rooftops that their old rulers have fled and effectively surrendered Dorne to you, it's basically true
It'll take some time, but if you start assuming the duties and expectations of a ruler (and keep them in line with the army and dragon) then in a couple decades you'll completely take over and really cut off the civilian support to the guerilla forces
 
[X]Plan: Operation Schmoozing
-[X] [Conversation] Speak With Lady Gilliane Glover
-[X] [Conversation] Speak with Rhea Royce
-[X] [Action] Take Part in a Hunt

We actually don't give enough credit in terms of action invested towards the non ruling ladies of the realm.
 
[X]Plan: Operation Schmoozing
[X] Of Stark Importance

I'm curious about Lady Gilliane. Might switch to
[] Plan: The Partial Winterfell Experience (Hunt Version)

gonna sleep on it
 
I think the idea is that Dragons don't hold territory very well, you still need the traditional army for that
And Dorne just refused to commit to any open battle where dragons were around, ambushing supply lines and then fading into the deserts and mountain passes instead

Whether that would have actually been enough in the long run... I don't know

I don't think this is really a battle that can be won on guerilla warfare alone if it really came down to it
My inexpert understanding of these things is that guerilla warfare generally can't properly "win" wars, rather they stall the opponent until they give up by making it too frustrating and expensive to keep going

Which might be what happened
Aegon might have had to call it quits because the army's morale was too low, because plague broke out among the encampment (common in armies due to sanitation issues and cramped conditions), because the lords back home were starting to raise a fuss about all their men being away for too long and the fields going fallow and we need the harvests to come in before Winter or there's going to be a shortage and-

By denying Aegon an open battle where he could crush them quickly and cleanly, Dorne could have feasibly drawn things out long enough for enough problems to crop up that Aegon had to call the invasion off

Though on the other hand...


Sure, personally flying around to burn every single square inch of land to flush out all resistance isn't a very feasible thing to do
You don't really have to do that though

Dorne's armies need to be supplied somehow
And especially in a place like an arid desert, you just need to control the key areas that produce sufficient food and resources
If they've given up on actually meeting you in battle and stopping your forces because they know they can't, then just march in and take over
Hang around with your dragon for a few months while your army takes over the fortifications and builds some of their own for good measure, get really entrenched right in their breadbasket
Sure you and your dragon probably have better things to do than hang around forever, but once things are set up properly and word can be sent to you relatively quickly should Dorne's army start properly massing up in an attempt to reclaim key territory, you don't need to hang around

Farmlands take a lot of effort to create, and they're pretty obvious, especially from the sky
They're not going to be able to just create a whole new irrigation network and grow new food in the time they have before starvation
Force them to meet you in open battle, or else starve

All the nobles having gone into hiding also means that they're decentralized and cannot rule effectively
They've effectively abandoned the citizenry when they up and left
Start setting up your own government in their house if they aren't going to stop you
Start crowing from the rooftops that their old rulers have fled and effectively surrendered Dorne to you, it's basically true
It'll take some time, but if you start assuming the duties and expectations of a ruler (and keep them in line with the army and dragon) then in a couple decades you'll completely take over and really cut off the civilian support to the guerilla forces

This was a pretty interesting read!

I also thought about the "well, let's starve them out" option. I mean, it'd have worked even on a castle as imposing and supposedly magical as Storms end if the Tyrells weren't waiting out the war to see who won, so, basically taking advantage of the fact they fled their own castles and plop yourself up in their ancestral castles should be enough combined with impending starvation to make their blood boil (I highly doubt a bunch of nobility as stubbornly independent and proud of their history as the dornish would be able to stomach someone just... taking their stuff and deciding that "no, this is mine now, too bad")

I guess it just depends on how each author justifies the "could fend off Aegon I" shtick, another person also answered with feasible reasons why they could. It all comes down to interpretations and probably a heavy dive into the closest historical precedents by the author!

Also it bears saying that unlike Aegon I, Rhaenyra should, one supposes, have a Realm more united than the recently conquered kingdoms still chafing at getting ousted out of their kingly statutes.

And that unlike Daeron I, we are a dragon and HAVE a dragon ("You have a dragon. He stands before you" quote)

Also this might all be pointless if Rhaenyra ends up getting knighthood and has no need to go "The Young Dragon" on Westeros a full hundred years in advance :lol: or if we marry the Dornish Prince but that'd surely be a relationship polycule for the ages NGL...
 
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[X] Plan The Full Winterfell Experience

Rhaenyra continuing the trend of being an arbiter of justice. And stressing tf out of Viserys, she's been out of the house for like 3 months and it's been non-stop.

I guess we can have an actual coversation with Rhea when we go to Castle Black, something tells me there's not gonna be much to do up there.
 
But for real how believable was the "Dorne guerrilla warfare'd the dragons" excuse?

Well, as for dragons... Dorne actually ballista'ed them. Or well, one dragon, at least - they managed to actually shoot down and kill Meraxes, and with it Queen Rhaenys. In response to that, the Targaryens basically burned all of Dorne for three years, except Sunspear which they always spared in order to spark an uprising among the Dornish lords who had their own holdings burned down. Then the old Princess of Dorne died, and her son, the new prince, sent his daughter to King's Landing, to personally hand over a letter to King Aegon. Aegon read the letter, gripped the Iron Throne so hard that his hand started to bleed,and then immediately left for Dragonstone on his dragon. When he came back a day later, he announced peace, and nobody has ever learned what was written in the letter.

...I guess at that point even the writers needed to come up with some reason why Dorne won. But yeah, as for Dragons, they can be shot down from the ground, even relatively mature ones as Meraxes. You probably need a one in thousand shot (probably aiming for the eye), but it's doable.

And of course, the Targaryens at that point only had three two lmao get rekt valyrians dragons, and seemed to only ever send one of them to the front. There is only so much aerial surveillance you can do with one dragon. Of course, still enough to find farms, especially farms that will be highly concentrated along the Greenblood in the desert, but I guess the Dornish had stocked up enough food to last a little genocide attempt? I mean, it's not that outlandish in a setting where people routinely store enough food to last four year winters, so basically every castle in Westeros may have an "apocalypse bunker"... and the winters never reach Dorne, so they'd only need to prepare for the war.

I guess the main problem is that the Targaryens and Reachers just... didn't adapt. They lost an entire army marching into the desert, never to be seen again. It seems to me the problem was they wanted to do a regular campaign as the Reachers had always fought against the Stormlands or Westerlands... buuut in the desert. Their own supply lines snapped before the Dornish did, which is probably also why they couldn't siege or hold lands. You can also only do so many air supply drops with one dragon.

Ultimately, forests, jungles and mountains would be better guerilla terrain, but it is what it is. For some reason, in Westeros, the Dornish are basically Lawrence of Arabia.

Though, as for why the smallfolk never rebelled, well there is one possible reason: They know they would have it worse under the new regime. Since Dorne is Best Kingdom, their laws are incredibly more friendly towards commoners. For example, lords have a legal obligation to feed their smallfolk during famines (compare that to Edmure Tully giving refuge to his smallfolk in Riverrun and how everyone treated that as an incredibly naive foolishness), and to take care of all their former soldiers who got maimed in conflicts. The nobility is a bit more difficult to explain, of course especially House Yronwood. But I guess in Dorne even the "chief rebellious vassal house" thing many of the kingdoms have going in is tamer than elsewhere.

To bring that back at least vaguely to the game, I think we should learn from the failed attempts to burn the land but spare Sunspear during the First Dornish War. Rather, if we ever try to subdue Dorne, we need to cut off the head. The Dornish are not exactly known as a naval great power, so we can do it like Daeron II did later in canon history: Gather a navy, land at Sunspear and smash open the Greenblood with our ships. Eastern Dorne is the more pleasant part of Dorne, neither desert nor mountains, so it should be easier to control. If Sunspear and the east can be kept under control, the desert can be won over bit by bit, in small actions. Trying to have One Big Army in Dorne just doesn't work.

Which might be what happened
We know part of what happened. It's in "The World of Ice and Fire". Basically, the Targaryen realm/the Reach marched entire armies into the desert where they starved. They tried to fight a war for "conventional" terrain, where half an army's supply is done by "foraging" (i.e. raidng the local peasants), in a desert where you can't do foraging. And as soon as the main host marched on, the rearguard would be slaughtered by the Dornish fighters returning from their hiding spots - or, really, as the story of the Dornish uprising against Daeron II shows, not just fighters. In Dornish lands, as an occupier, you are just as likely to get your throat slit by a peasant or a castle servant.

But yeah, what made Aegon call it quits for good was that mysterious letter from Dorne.
 
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[X] Plan: The Partial Winterfell Experience

Guess I'll vote for this but I'd be alright with Full Experience winning as long as we spend some of the hunt speaking with Rhea. I feel like we're getting into a habit of ignoring our companions on this trip (with the exception of Alicent) in favor of picking the location/time-sensitive options instead.
 
By the way, what are we making of the silence from King's Landing? I thought we were outracing any raven on dragonback anyway, but it seems Rhaenyra thought otherwise, that there should have been one. I wonder what the hold-up is. Did something happen to Viserys? But in that case we surely would get word about that...
 
[X] Plan The Full Winterfell Experience
-[X] [Conversation] Speak with Lord Rickon Stark
-[X] [Action] Take Part in a Judgement
-[X] [Action] Take Part in a Hunt
 
[X] Plan The Full Winterfell Experience.

If Rhaenyra intends to become a Master of Laws, gaining Ace Attorney: Northern Edition experience will be valuable.

As for fighting dragons with ballistas, it's nearly impossible. Ballistas simply aren't designed to fight flying opponents, and not only do they have almost no chance of hitting a dragon, they won't even have a chance unless the rider attacks head-on. The only way Meraxes could have died at all is if Rhaenys ignored the existence of ballistas in the first place.
 
By the way, what are we making of the silence from King's Landing? I thought we were outracing any raven on dragonback anyway, but it seems Rhaenyra thought otherwise, that there should have been one. I wonder what the hold-up is. Did something happen to Viserys? But in that case we surely would get word about that...
Well, the timing's pretty tight.

All we know is that a raven could have gotten here that fast.

Viserys may honestly be deciding to take a few days to make up his mind, given that whatever decision he makes is going to very strongly and permanently affect his relationship with his heir and only child from his first marriage, and probably shape her entire future and even significant policy elements of the later part of his own reign.

One or more of the multiple maesters who would handle the message could have somehow messed up or been sick that day or otherwise failed to transmit it properly.

Or who knows, the actual raven delivering the message might have gotten sick or been caught up in a winter storm or eaten by an eagle or something. I'm sure that happens even to the maesters' network now and then. :p
 
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