Forge of Destiny(Xianxia Quest)

put my two points on Wits anyway, an extra dice on possible Wits check might be better than a single dice and +1 DV on Unarmed, since we're going in a complex social event next turn.
That is as good a reason as any. Hopefully we can stay on our toes and not make a complete fool of ourselves during the meeting. Here's hoping!
 
Not just steady growth, but also White Hart Elixir.
Not sold on White Hart. It grants us +6 physical cultivation rolls, plus a third of the successes on those added to qi, but that all costs 6 stones. Frankly it isn't a bad trade, but it isn't really a good one either; a single physical cultivation action plus 4 stones has about 40 dice, and a third of that added to qi via the Bear Marrow Elixir. That that the 6 stones here give us a seventh of what we can get with an action and 4 stones, so our exchange range is 6 * 7 - 4 = 38 stones for an action. That is about breaking even, so I don't particularly care one way or another.
 
Cultivation all comes down to popping pills and snorting elixir in the end. :D

@yrsillar, put my two points on Wits anyway, an extra dice on possible Wits check might be better than a single dice and +1 DV on Unarmed, since we're going in a complex social event next turn.

EDIT: Oh, and I reiterate the possibilities of getting cheaper (though possibly lesser) pills and elixirs from Su Ling.

Maybe we can even trade teaching AM for a supply of them from both Suyin and Su Ling?
Done, thats three dots in Wits now.

Anyway just letting you guys know that I'm going to be busy tomorrow, so the votes going to remain open.
 
On that note, we should consider buying some beast cores off of Su Ling with our Qi Establishment pill, at least if she is still in Red by the time we need them.
We could toss it to Suyin instead, to strengthen her SL. Say it was in thanks of her helping open the tokens.
+doffs off the devil's advocate cap+

On the Formations end of Suyin's capabilities, we might want to ask around for possibility of putting Formations in Qi Cards.
 
On the Formations end of Suyin's capabilities, we might want to ask around for possibility of putting Formations in Qi Cards.
That would be an interesting idea, having different cards that cast different formations. Placing cards that make targets sleepy or frozen as a statute would be an interesting use of our admittedly limited formation expertise.
 
We could toss it to Suyin instead, to strengthen her SL. Say it was in thanks of her helping open the tokens.
+doffs off the devil's advocate cap+
The problem is that we've seen from our Suyin interactions that she feels indebted to us, to the point that I expect it is making her feel useless and the like.

See:
"Oh!" Li Suyin replied, nodding quickly. "Of course, I will be happy to help you with anything you need Ling Qi," she said brightly. Ling Qi silently congratulated herself, Suyin hadn't looked so happy in weeks. "I mean… I hope I can help you… I well, I have not had time to study much of late," and just like that her friend had started to come back down again.
"It was no trouble," the blue haired girl replied happily, sliding the pill bottle she had unlocked over to Ling Qi. "I am just glad to have been able to help you with something."

In light of this, I think that giving her gifts is unlikely to advance the SL, and might even be counterproductive.
 
If Plan Haitei wins, can we make a point next week to do some of the non-cultivation stuff we've been putting off? In particular, can we do the formations Archive action and the Hard harvesting mission?

We know we want the Formations research just to get a feel for the land, so to speak - it would be good to know what we can practically do at our level, other then just breaking formations others have set up. And we will need to start doing harvesting missions to to pay for our training aids. As is, those aren't going to get to take advantage of the +8 dice we get to cultivation actions after we break into Mid Silver, so why not frontload these actions for before we have that bonus?

That still leaves three actions for Egg + EPC + Physical; assuming nothing else shows up, are people generally okay with such a setup?
 
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The problem is that we've seen from our Suyin interactions that she feels indebted to us, to the point that I expect it is making her feel useless and the like.
I can't help but think that her feeling increasingly indebted to us is not actually a bad thing. So long as she doesn't decide to just give up on cultivating then having her feel increasingly like she HAS to prove herself useful in return could be quite helpful.
 
First, no, that is wrong. Things don't compound this way. At best, getting a combo a turn earlier means getting the next combo a turn earlier and the next combo a turn earlier, and so on. You can see this easily by comparing us to the group that started last year. We hit red a year after they did - does that mean that we would hit yellow a year an a half after them assuming equal talent? Of course not.

Second, this completely neglects the fact that we got the combo a week earlier by sacrificing something. If we paid the equivalent of two actions to get our combo a week earlier, we would be behind by the opportunity-cost of those two actions. If we make up those actions later, the cost of making the up has to be subtracted from the advantage we got from getting the combo earlier; if we don't, the opportunity cost of whatever we gave up has to be subtracted instead.


For example. Right now, we could get to Mid Silver Physique a week earlier by spending a Starlight pill. We can then carry happily go on with our lives by having reached that bonus one turn earlier - but we now don't have that pill. Instead, if we held off, we would have reached Mid Sliver a week later, but would still have the pill in reserve, and the boost it could give us might be greater then what we got from an extra week of being at Mid Silver in the other case.



Actually, let me take a step back and suggest what is perhaps a more apt way of thinking about the issue. What we've got is an interplay of two things: progress and time. The amount of progress we get per unit time grows at certain thresholds of our current progress (it is more complicated then that since progress is heterogeneous, but bear with me for a minute). Our situation is that we have a pill that can provide some immediate progress. Using this pill now means that we pass a threshold and start getting better returns on our time. Alternatively, we can wait some time and use the pill later, providing us a greater amount of progress in the future. However, because we will be getting better returns on time in the future, a fixed amount of progress in the future is worth less time than the same amount of progress today.
With this perspective, the question is: how much time do we save by using the pill now, vs how much time will we save by using it in the future?

If you can provide a compelling reason that a single physical roll now saves us more time than a use of the pill later (with the correspondingly higher physical roll and the art bonuses), then that would be a compelling reason to use the pill immediately.
Well, the reason I said that it saves us multiple weeks later on is because it doesn't just give simple, easy to do calculations where we get advantages for one week. We get advantages for one week worth of dice on dice on all cultivations (at the very least) of course, and it does mean getting faster to the next threshold on multiple points... but it also means getting higher returns on multiple types of actions that are less easily quantifiable.

For example, it might mean being at lady Cai's meeting at Mid Silver. If she is trying to woo us and we are mid silver when two week ago we were peak gold, she will try to woo us harder and this by itself might give us a free "+3 weeks of efforts". It might mean the difference between failing Moonfilled and succeeding (I doubt it). It might mean getting more returns for harder missions with less effort, giving more resources and making the starlight actually a non-sacrifice by itself, and so on and so forth.

It's not a isolated "yeah, we are getting one week in advance, that's all" because everything plays together. There are thresholds, and while this is not the case of "getting to green a week before our 20th birthday or a week after", there are cases, many of them, when one week won = a month won several months down the line.

I truly think this is the case, if only because of the effects on EPC or SCS. SCS for example we can't afford to train it right now because it is just shy of getting to SCS3 in one action, while if we were silver we could get that reliably. Especially if we do the Meizhen action this turn. there are many things where the difference between 'mid silver' and not give so much much returns that not getting it by itself give a huge penalty.
 
I think we might want to consider figuring out how to make a barrier formation before we put the egg on a kiln that we will keep at home and the only deterrent to it being stolen is apparently our household's (admittedly dangerous) reputation. Like, I doubt we can keep the entire setup in our ring (tho if we can my objections vanish)

Like, I don't want to invoke voter paranoia, but our somewhat primitive thievery plans pretty much can be summed up as 'walk into houses and take stuff'. And if we can do it... so can other people.
 
If Plan Haitei wins, can we make a point next week to do some of the non-cultivation stuff we've been putting off? In particular, can we do the formations Archive action and the Hard harvesting mission?

We know we want the Formations research just to get a feel for the land, so to speak - it would be good to know what we can practically do at our level, other then just breaking formations others have set up. And we will need to start doing harvesting missions to to pay for our training aids. As is, those aren't going to get to take advantage of the +8 dice we get to cultivation actions after we break into Mid Silver, so why not frontload these actions for before we have that bonus?

That still leaves three actions for Egg + NPC + Physical; assuming nothing else shows up, are people generally okay with such a setup?

Except we've still got EPC to train. And people are still wanting to push towards getting hand/spine art, which means another spine meridian and an archive for that. Things aren't that easy.
 
@Katreus I really can't convince you to use either of the extra physical roll pills? you are opening a meridian so the meridian one wouldn't even be wasted, as it would just mean getting more overflow, and meridian-wise the extra dice are only truly needed insofar as ''the last push" when we are late/late and getting to the last of our obtainable meridians, so it's not a real loss as long as we have one of those left by then.
Given that Haitei should hopefully leave us fairly close to mid-silver... How possible would it be to, say, take meridian + learn new art and level up physical using overflows?
Harder than it looks if we don't use meridian physical pill next turn, too. Simply because art can't easily be predicted (we don't know if we will have overflow or just continue learning it) and meridians can't either.

We can get 5+ extra success... but it's iffy, and current hatei plan takes us just short of this. Really, at this point the "less not use resource at all" thing is dangerous.

If there was use of some more resources on plan hatei, we would get close enough to mid-silver I would just try to write a omake to get us there. Not quite there yet though.
The problem is that we've seen from our Suyin interactions that she feels indebted to us, to the point that I expect it is making her feel useless and the like.
It's... a bit more complicated. She is feeling indebted to us, but she is also feeling like she needs to accept help and get everything she can to accomplish her own goal.

So it's currently more of a she wants to pay us back, rather than any help toward her will hurt her. Helping her doesn't hurt her... but her helping us makes her feel good. It's win win.
 
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[X] Plan Haitei

I definitely like switching the girls' day out to the pure Meizhen training
Adhoc vote count started by Kai Merah on Jun 10, 2017 at 1:42 AM, finished with 14817 posts and 51 votes.

  • [X] Plan Haitei
    - [X] Resources - Bear Marrow Elixir, 3 Red Stones, Channel Cleansing Pill
    - [X] Train by hunting with Han Jian and his group
    -- [X] Physical
    - [X] Train at the vent with Suyin and Su Ling
    -- [X] Arm Meridian
    -- [X] Spend some time with Su Ling, perhaps you can learn a little bit of hunting tactics and harvesting from her
    - [X] Take a Job
    -- [X] Moonfill
    - [X] Work on getting the egg to hatch
    - [X] Cultivate on your own
    -- [X] EPC
    - [X] Ask Han Jian to give you a little instruction about the politics of your situation. He seems like a more unbiased source
    - [X] Accept Cai Renxiang's invitation to tea
    - [X] Bring up the idea of training together with Meizhen. You are strong enough now, right?
    [X] Plan Haitei
    [X] Plan A Moonless Night is Full of Stars
    -[X] Resources
    --[X] 3 Red Spirit Stones, Bear Marrow Elixer, Starlight Elixir
    - [X] Train by hunting with Han Jian and his group
    -- [X] Physical
    - [X] Train at the vent with Suyin and Su Ling
    --[X] Spiritual
    --[X] Li Suyin is doing better, coax her out into studying, and talk to her about her plans. Give her your last Qi Foundation Pill.
    - [X] Take a Job
    -- [X] Moonfill
    - [X] Work on getting the egg to hatch
    - [X] Cultivate on your own
    -- [X] EPC
    - [X] Ask Han Jian to give you a little instruction about the politics of your situation. He seems like a more unbiased source
    - [X] Accept Cai Renxiang's invitation to tea
    - [X] Bring up the idea of training together with Meizhen. You are strong enough now, right?
    [X] Plan A Moonless Night is Full of Stars
    [X] Plan Expanding Horizons
    -[X] Three Red Stones, Bear Marrow Elixir, Channel Clearing Elixir, White Hart Elixir, Steady Growth Pill, Starlight Elixir
    -[X] Major Actions
    - [X] Train by hunting with Han Jian and his group
    -- [X] Physical
    - [X] Train at the vent with Suyin and Su Ling
    ---[X] Meridian (Spine)
    ---[X] Ask them if they want to do an investigation mission together. Split three ways instead of two it will be sixteen sect point for Suyin and Ling Qi, and eighteen for Su Ling for her greater hunting experience.
    - [X] Work on getting the egg to hatch
    - [X] Take a Job
    -- [X] Moonfill
    ---[X] Investigate Disappearances
    -[X] Minor Actions
    - [X] Bring up the idea of training together with Meizhen. You are strong enough now, right?
    - [X] Ask Han Jian to give you a little instruction about the politics of your situation. He seems like a more unbiased source
    - [X] Accept Cai Renxiang's invitation to tea
    [X] Plan Expanding Horizons
    [X] Plan Steady Progress
    -[X] Use 3 red stones, Bear Marrow Elixir, Channel Cleansing Pill (costs 9 red stones total)
    - [X] Take a Job
    --[X] Moonfill Mission
    - [X] Train by hunting with Han Jian and his group
    -- [X] Physical
    - [X] Train at the vent with Suyin and Su Ling
    -- [X] Arm Meridian
    --[X] Li Suyin is doing better, coax her out into studying, and talk to her about her plans
    - [X] Cultivate on your own
    --[X] Eight Phase Ceremony
    - [X] Work on getting the egg to hatch
    -- [X] Spend some time with Su Ling, perhaps you can learn a little bit of hunting tactics and harvesting from her
    - [X] Ask Han Jian to give you a little instruction about the politics of your situation. He seems like a more unbiased source
    - [X] Accept Cai Renxiang's invitation to tea
    [X] Plan Steady Progress
    [X] Fill Me With Your Moon Juice
    -[X] Items: 3 Red Stones, Bear Marrow Elixir, Clear Channel Pill
    - [X] Train by hunting with Han Jian and his group
    -- [X] Physical
    - [X] Train at the vent with Suyin and Su Ling
    --[X] Spiritual
    --[X] Offer the two of them the chance to train Argent Mirror
    - [X] Take a Job
    -- [X] Moonfill
    - [X] Cultivate on your own
    --[X]Meridian arm
    --[X] Eight Phase Ceremony
    -- [X] Spend some time with Su Ling, perhaps you can learn a little bit of hunting tactics and harvesting from her
    -[X] Ask Su Ling about how to make use of beast cores, and the value of those you have
    - [X] Accept Cai Renxiang's invitation to tea
 
For example, it might mean being at lady Cai's meeting at Mid Silver. If she is trying to woo us and we are mid silver when two week ago we were peak gold, she will try to woo us harder and this by itself might give us a free "+3 weeks of efforts".
Fair enough; the model I described doesn't appropriately capture external interactions.

For example, back when we were in Elder Su's class, extra advances at the time were more valuable then their pure time/progress values would suggest because they also earned us extra rewards. Similarly, although we chose not to, breaking through before the Thunderdome would have been especially helpful - not just because it gave us progress, but because it did so in time for a special event. As a third example, if we were actually one year where we were supposed to be instead of just one year behind the previous class, the sect would basically write us off, meaning that a bunch of bonuses we might otherwise get we don't get.


On the other hand, I think that extra progress has a chance to proc negative external effects; e.g. making people more jealous, making us acceptable targets to higher-cultivation peers, etc. So all in all, unless there is a specific external reason that we need time-sensitive advances, I feel like it is best to ignore the effect of this category.

It might mean getting more returns for harder missions with less effort, giving more resources and making the starlight actually a non-sacrifice by itself, and so on and so forth.
This is double counting. We already know that being more advanced means that you get more out of each action; so of course if we take the same exact actions in two cases the case where we were more advanced would get better results. But just like the fact that we get more dice for each cultivation action by being more advanced, this is already accounted for. Your discrepancy comes from the fact that for the more advanced case, you are effectively doing your actions later, at least as far as cultivation is concerned. If you just pushed back said actions in the original plan to match up cultivation-wise, the discrepancy in results would go away.

As a litmus test, consider my 1yr example. If we were behind a year, would we be having more problems with Gathering missions than we are now? Not at all.

It's not a isolated "yeah, we are getting one week in advance, that's all" because everything plays together. There are thresholds, and while this is not the case of "getting to green a week before our 20th birthday or a week after", there are cases, many of them, when one week won = a month won several months down the line.
If one week could be leveraged into a month several months down the line, we should precommit to pushing anything external encounter that isn't time-sensitive down a week; that would get us lots of gains, no?

I truly think this is the case, if only because of the effects on EPC or SCS. SCS for example we can't afford to train it right now because it is just shy of getting to SCS3 in one action, while if we were silver we could get that reliably. Especially if we do the Meizhen action this turn. there are many things where the difference between 'mid silver' and not give so much much returns that not getting it by itself give a huge penalty.
I have an allegory to tell with regards to this.
I take the subway to work every day, and trains typically come every 10 minutes or so. There are several blocks from subway, and depending on the day, I may cross them slowly or quickly. I have on multiple occasions walked slowly, only to find myself arriving just in time to miss the train. In such cases, I often lament to myself - "if only I had chosen to walk quicker today, I would have made it! This one minute of dallying cost me 10 minutes of time; what a shame". Except of course, that is wrong. I don't know in advanced that I would be one minute late, and in fact, nine-times-out-of-ten, I'm not; my dallying doesn't stop me from catching the same train, and only means I spent a minute more outside and a minute less on the platform. So while there are times where the minute is multiplied tenfold in terms of losses, those times are perfectly matched by the times when the minute matters not at all.

Point being. The fact that we need an extra action here that we wouldn't need with Mid Silver isn't anything special; it is just a manifestation of the fact that at Mid Sliver we advance faster, which means we'll need less actions on average. Sometimes that means only one action is needed where two had been required before, but sometimes it means that one action is one action was. No need to read anything into it, and certainly no need to count that as an extra bonus; it is already been counted when we said Red gives us more progress per action.
 
Given that Haitei should hopefully leave us fairly close to mid-silver... How possible would it be to, say, take meridian + learn new art and level up physical using overflows?
I wouldn't count on it. We are close enough to the meridians success threshold that we don't really gain much overflow from successes there, so it would probably fail miserably.
 
If there was use of some more resources on plan hatei, we would get close enough to mid-silver I would just try to write a omake to get us there. Not quite there yet though.

What resources would we use for that kind of setup? Currently, the only relevant difference between the plans is the use of Starlight Elixir, which should put us comfortably over from what people were saying?

We do have points lying around to use if we need them. Currently, I was figuring that the best use of them would be to throw them at EPC to try to make sure it's done in 2 turns rather than 3.

Edit: I don't really see how we can do it without use of Starlight, which people don't want. Using both White Hart and Steady Growth as well as an omake reward would put us at what, maybe 5-6 more successes? Which might be just enough, but would probably miss it by a hair?
 
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This is double counting. We already know that being more advanced means that you get more out of each action; so of course if we take the same exact actions in two cases the case where we were more advanced would get better results. But just like the fact that we get more dice for each cultivation action by being more advanced, this is already accounted for. Your discrepancy comes from the fact that for the more advanced case, you are effectively doing your actions later, at least as far as cultivation is concerned. If you just pushed back said actions in the original plan to match up cultivation-wise, the discrepancy in results would go away.

As a litmus test, consider my 1yr example. If we were behind a year, would we be having more problems with Gathering missions than we are now? Not at all.
Wouldn't we be? If we were a year later, it means we would be 15, so it means we would have access to less resources from the sect, less trust from allies, and so on and so forth. This is not a "nothing would be different" factor. Being a year later cost a lot more, simply by virtue of being a year later.

It's a bit weird because it's intuitive to think "Oh yeah, the same opportunity are there, it's just a year later", but it's simply not the case. There are cases where being a year later actually is helpful, though. For example, it would mean not having to contest against Sun Liling/Cai Rexiang/Bai Meizhen at the end of the year.

OTOH, having to contest with them is an opportunity.

Point being. The fact that we need an extra action here that we wouldn't need with Mid Silver isn't anything special; it is just a manifestation of the fact that at Mid Sliver we advance faster, which means we'll need less actions on average. Sometimes that means only one action is needed where two had been required before, but sometimes it means that one action is one action was. No need to read anything into it, and certainly no need to count that as an extra bonus; it is already been counted when we said Red gives us more progress per action.
I will disagree here. Getting SCS in one action is incredibly different that getting it in two, simply because it means that we can get the utility of that threshold more easily. Different dice are not the same and the worth of actions are different.

This means that, for example this week, I didn't want to train SCS because doing those would require a big enough sacrifice to get it to SCS3 for little returns next turn. However, if the sacrifice for getting it was less, we could then be discussing whether SCS3 by itself would change things for next turn.

I'm not sure you were here back then, but it's been theorized that SCS is a 'grinning moon' technique that focus on burglary. If we could get it to SCS3 within an action, it would thus increases the effectiveness of choosing to try and steal other disciple's token next turn if we were to gamble on SCS3 giving bonus that way.

I think we are coming back to how you think some things are double counting but I don't think so, however.
 
The issue I have with holding off on using the Starlight Elixir, I think, is that I have played enough RPGs to know that when I push off using things because they'll be more useful later... I never use them.

We have what, 11 valuable drugs lying around? Reserving, say, 4-5 of those for a particularly specialized big push week is entirely sensible. But historical trends are that we don't value that rate of advancement enough to consistently dedicate our weeks like that, to the exclusion of other activities. We've only the one Sable Light pill besides, which is the nexus of any big push.

My point is, using something nice every week or two should be a goal, but just means to another. We can reasonably expect to land our hands on other resources moving forwards, and we already have more than we can use quickly. This is great! It's a good place to be, but holding back on actually using things that are useful because they may be slightly more useful in the future can be a detrimental attitude to have.

A good example is our use, or non-use, of the Qi Foundation pills. Yes, we had other things going on that makes it reasonable, but I wonder if we couldn't have gotten our hands on one more if we'd used them a tad more liberally. In retrospect, it's almost like that challenge was a tutorial of sorts, that Elder Su was intending to instill the lesson that using resources mindfully but persistently leads to further material gains to leverage in the future.
 
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Wouldn't we be? If we were a year later, it means we would be 15, so it means we would have access to less resources from the sect, less trust from allies, and so on and so forth.
Insofar as this is true (which I'm not sure it is), this is an external effect akin to the ones I mentioned earlier in the quoted post; someone expects something of us at a given time so items which grant "time" now are more valuable than ones which grant time later, even if the amount of time granted is the same.

It's a bit weird because it's intuitive to think "Oh yeah, the same opportunity are there, it's just a year later", but it's simply not the case.
It is the case for everything that doesn't involve external expectations. It is true for non-unique sect missions, cultivation actions, skill training, and so on.

I will disagree here. Getting SCS in one action is incredibly different that getting it in two, simply because it means that we can get the utility of that threshold more easily. Different dice are not the same and the worth of actions are different.
I didn't say it wasn't? Having to wait 10 extra minutes for the train is rather different from having to wait a couple of minutes; but still, you can't say that the 1 minute of arrival delay cause the 10 minutes of waiting; rather, it caused a non-deterministic effect that cost 10 minutes of waiting 1/10 the time and nothing the rest of the time; we simply happened to evaluate said random quantity at the 10 minute case.

Same here. It just so happens that SCS takes one less action with this setup - but e.g. none of our next one or two meridians do. You win some, you lose some.

I think we are coming back to how you think some things are double counting but I don't think so, however.
Look. Unless you are interacting with time-sensitive expectations/requests/threats/etc., you can't gain benefits faster than time flows. If we magically got an extra week to do extra cultivation right now, we would be a week ahead, and we would remain a week ahead, no more, no less, at least as long as we limited our interaction to non-time-sensitive things. Getting a single extra cultivation action in now is going to put you less than a week ahead, and you are never going to naturally beat the +week version of ourselves; or if we did, it would be a matter of blind luck, nothing less and nothing more. There is no way to leverage any sort of normal actions - cultivating SCS, for example - into additional time advantages.
 
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