Forge of Destiny(Xianxia Quest)
- Thread starter yrsillar
- Start date
- Original Fantasy
Yeah, really. Frankly, she's already a bit unreasonable to request such a short deadline, but she knows we're still feeling her out. She knows that. I expect some tact from her.
- Location
- Brazil
Because Zeqing is apparently upping the ante on our relationship, and it's a fickle thing also.
Think about it: in two weeks she should be receiving a letter informing her she is now part of the Noble House of Ling.
Yeah, she knows we are like skittish even for a ninja.
I'd like to point out that last time Qi did a job for Fu she received 2 from Preparation, therefore is delaying for one auto success really worthwhile if increased defenses, or a change in the targets habits makes them irrelevant. Alternatively it might provide a detriment if we delay too long as Qi would be operating on outdated info.
- Location
- Vicksburg, MS
I hadn't caught it when I made that post but it was brought to my attention and I flopped to that one.
D'Aaaaw.
I don't know if that position is held by anyone else but I would like to not do any breaktrough this week and instead do a sect mission and with the point get a third floor metal musical art. The goal here would ve to get the last element that we don't have for breaktrough.
- Location
- Staring into the void
She might have thought she was giving us a year to decide. We're just a machine with cultivation such that it's only been 2 months instead.
Theunderbolt
"Prepare for trouble..."
- Location
- USoA
[X] Plan: Last stop before Breakthrough Week 2.0
Alectai
Speaks Words of Wisdom... On occasion
Nah, she estimated a month or two, which was honestly pretty on the ball. We would have been a month if we didn't go full overachiever.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
[X] Plan: Last stop before Breakthrough Week 2.0
If we want to absolutely maximize the impact of our very rare medicines, we need to either go all the way in, or dip our toes in and try to get one or two Green successes while handling our pressing business, and then go all in next week. Half assing it with four actions really is a big waste, especially given that it is a 45% chance to hit Green, and zero chance to finish Bronze. And then we no longer have our super meds.
If we want to absolutely maximize the impact of our very rare medicines, we need to either go all the way in, or dip our toes in and try to get one or two Green successes while handling our pressing business, and then go all in next week. Half assing it with four actions really is a big waste, especially given that it is a 45% chance to hit Green, and zero chance to finish Bronze. And then we no longer have our super meds.
[X] Plan: The power of Metal compel you
-[X] Expenses: 3 YSS, 3 RSS, First Level Earth/Water/Fire Pills, (6 RSS), Flowing Rivers Pill (6 RSS), Steady Growth Pill (6 RSS) Sturdy Oak Pill (18 RSS), Bear's Heartsblood Elixir (10 RSS), Bear's Marrow Elixir (4 RSS), Soul Concentrating Elixir (8 RSS), Soaring Charm (300 RSS), Blinding Fate Charm (50 RSS): Total Cost: 441 RSS
-[X] EPC Bonuses: Abyssal Exhalation, Argent Vent Bonus: Argent Current
-[X] Major: Do a sect mission
--[X] Wolves
-[X] Major: Get a third floor art
--[X] Musical art that use the metal element
-[X] Major: Do a favor for Fu Xiang
--[X] How Many(3), but be willing to stop if the reroll is used too soon.
-[X] Major: Abyssal Exhalation
--[X] Attached Minor: Zeqing has been quite busy, but you received a message inviting you to meet her... at her home?
-[X] Major: Cull the Black Soil Worm Population
--[X] Attached Minor: Zhengui is up and around again and didn't get to do much on the raid. Go hunting with him
-[X] Minor: Cai Renxiang has something important to announce. It seems you will need to attend a council meeting
-[X] Minor: Meizhen is right... the two of you should probably talk, it seems there is still a lot you don;t know about each other
-[X] Minor: You've learned what you can from simply observing Cai Renxiang. Ask her about the capital and about herself
Here it is. Stolen from Alectai plan.
The goal is to get all the last element we are missing right now.
-[X] Expenses: 3 YSS, 3 RSS, First Level Earth/Water/Fire Pills, (6 RSS), Flowing Rivers Pill (6 RSS), Steady Growth Pill (6 RSS) Sturdy Oak Pill (18 RSS), Bear's Heartsblood Elixir (10 RSS), Bear's Marrow Elixir (4 RSS), Soul Concentrating Elixir (8 RSS), Soaring Charm (300 RSS), Blinding Fate Charm (50 RSS): Total Cost: 441 RSS
-[X] EPC Bonuses: Abyssal Exhalation, Argent Vent Bonus: Argent Current
-[X] Major: Do a sect mission
--[X] Wolves
-[X] Major: Get a third floor art
--[X] Musical art that use the metal element
-[X] Major: Do a favor for Fu Xiang
--[X] How Many(3), but be willing to stop if the reroll is used too soon.
-[X] Major: Abyssal Exhalation
--[X] Attached Minor: Zeqing has been quite busy, but you received a message inviting you to meet her... at her home?
-[X] Major: Cull the Black Soil Worm Population
--[X] Attached Minor: Zhengui is up and around again and didn't get to do much on the raid. Go hunting with him
-[X] Minor: Cai Renxiang has something important to announce. It seems you will need to attend a council meeting
-[X] Minor: Meizhen is right... the two of you should probably talk, it seems there is still a lot you don;t know about each other
-[X] Minor: You've learned what you can from simply observing Cai Renxiang. Ask her about the capital and about herself
Here it is. Stolen from Alectai plan.
The goal is to get all the last element we are missing right now.
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NaanContributor
Provider of delicious flatbread, and nothing else.
- Location
- Hawaii
[X] Plan: Last stop before Breakthrough Week 2.0
- Location
- Brazil
Wait a moment, wasn't TRF supposed to use a Metal Spine meridian at 4th level? I'm pretty sure it was.
What happened?
What happened?
Poor Aim
BungieONI
Seven gremlins in a trench coat
- Location
- Lickwidget
- Pronouns
- She/Her
*humming along to Bloodsimple*
*sticks plan idea into a Notepad page for possible later contemplation*
I'll give some hopefully constructive criticism to the two leading plans.
For Breakthrough: Start! my biggest concern is that you are likely wasting both the Blood and the Milk. I don't have the math tools @Erebeal used to simulate our chances of breakthrough, but I do have a table from them used to represent what happens when we have a week with six actions devoted to breakthrough in the first two tables and then the last table with five actions. These include the actions needed to recover.
The cells are the chances of getting that specific combination of breakthrough successes, and the numbers at the ends of the rows and columns are the chances to get that number of green or bronze successes. It also starts with green. Strategy 1 is roll spiritual until failure then doing physical. Recover if/as necessary and try again. Strategy 2 is roll spiritual until we fail and then recover and then keep going with green. Then we go with physical. Run across ten thousand runs. The greater than 0% chances in the 0,0 cells are due to error from 10,000 runs.
As can be seen with strategy 2 and 5 actions there is no chance of getting double breakthrough, though I don't think most want it. There is a 67% chance of getting Green completely however. Whichever strategy we use, it is pretty safe to assume that reducing the action count will decrease the chances of actually succeeding. I've seen 45% thrown out as the total chance we have to breakthrough to green with Start!, and as another assumption that it is the true value I think its a pretty reasonable number to get by reducing the action count by one.
It is also not an acceptable number for me to justify using either drug, though especially the Milk given the realms it applies to and what it does. A greater than even chance to not succeed and thus in a way waste the drugs is not appealing, as I see them as things to make sure we actually push through the final stretch and always have. This plan burns them up to eek out a start in the beginning and possibly delays our physical breakthrough to around week 39 or 40.
It also doesn't specify what to breakthrough except through slightly obtuse context, and I don't really know which strategy it wants to use either though that matters a little bit less. This un-clarity is another factor making me disinclined to vote for it.
Specify what you want to breakthrough and I think that'll help a lot.
As for Last Stop 2.0 I also have some critque. You could throw out Black Worms and put in Abyssal Exhalation cultivation in place, and cultivate that with Zhengui. You might get EPC stealth successes from hunting with Lil Bro? (Gorammit every time I type that out I imagine Mobster/Gangster Ling Qi ruling the school yard with Zhengui being adorably menacing in the background). But, anyway, I don't know for sure.
For example, if we actually succeed and don't need to recover and do the AE cultivation in your conditional plus the AE cultivation I propose in place of Black Worms we should have the EPC successes plus AE cultivation plus half of the second AE cultivation. That's around 85 to 90 successes because we throw ~75 dice at it right now and get around 41 to 42 successes and can probably get the max number of EPC stealth successes. That should unlock the next level, and it should be theoretically possible(I see no outstanding issues) with linking Zhengui's minor to it.
I hope all that math was correct
*sticks plan idea into a Notepad page for possible later contemplation*
I'll give some hopefully constructive criticism to the two leading plans.
For Breakthrough: Start! my biggest concern is that you are likely wasting both the Blood and the Milk. I don't have the math tools @Erebeal used to simulate our chances of breakthrough, but I do have a table from them used to represent what happens when we have a week with six actions devoted to breakthrough in the first two tables and then the last table with five actions. These include the actions needed to recover.
The cells are the chances of getting that specific combination of breakthrough successes, and the numbers at the ends of the rows and columns are the chances to get that number of green or bronze successes. It also starts with green. Strategy 1 is roll spiritual until failure then doing physical. Recover if/as necessary and try again. Strategy 2 is roll spiritual until we fail and then recover and then keep going with green. Then we go with physical. Run across ten thousand runs. The greater than 0% chances in the 0,0 cells are due to error from 10,000 runs.
As can be seen with strategy 2 and 5 actions there is no chance of getting double breakthrough, though I don't think most want it. There is a 67% chance of getting Green completely however. Whichever strategy we use, it is pretty safe to assume that reducing the action count will decrease the chances of actually succeeding. I've seen 45% thrown out as the total chance we have to breakthrough to green with Start!, and as another assumption that it is the true value I think its a pretty reasonable number to get by reducing the action count by one.
It is also not an acceptable number for me to justify using either drug, though especially the Milk given the realms it applies to and what it does. A greater than even chance to not succeed and thus in a way waste the drugs is not appealing, as I see them as things to make sure we actually push through the final stretch and always have. This plan burns them up to eek out a start in the beginning and possibly delays our physical breakthrough to around week 39 or 40.
It also doesn't specify what to breakthrough except through slightly obtuse context, and I don't really know which strategy it wants to use either though that matters a little bit less. This un-clarity is another factor making me disinclined to vote for it.
Specify what you want to breakthrough and I think that'll help a lot.
As for Last Stop 2.0 I also have some critque. You could throw out Black Worms and put in Abyssal Exhalation cultivation in place, and cultivate that with Zhengui. You might get EPC stealth successes from hunting with Lil Bro? (Gorammit every time I type that out I imagine Mobster/Gangster Ling Qi ruling the school yard with Zhengui being adorably menacing in the background). But, anyway, I don't know for sure.
For example, if we actually succeed and don't need to recover and do the AE cultivation in your conditional plus the AE cultivation I propose in place of Black Worms we should have the EPC successes plus AE cultivation plus half of the second AE cultivation. That's around 85 to 90 successes because we throw ~75 dice at it right now and get around 41 to 42 successes and can probably get the max number of EPC stealth successes. That should unlock the next level, and it should be theoretically possible(I see no outstanding issues) with linking Zhengui's minor to it.
I hope all that math was correct
Alectai
Speaks Words of Wisdom... On occasion
Hmmm....
That's a fair point. We don't strictly require a Sect Mission right now.
Yeah, I can do that revision too, and it gives us a good chunk of bad luck protection as well. It guarantees that even in a worst case scenario output, we're still lined up to pull a 6x Breakthrough next week, and in a best case, we at least have one more Art level when we take the plunge.
EDIT: The adjustment has been done, two Cultivate on our Owns set up as Bad Luck Protection, with AE if we don't need the Bad Luck Protection. We're still hanging out with Zeqing and Zhengui though, which were the core parts.
That being said, this is hardly set into stone, and I can switch back at a thought if there's an outcry. Fellows, if you don't agree, notify me and I'll roll it back to the older version where we do a Sect Mission instead.
SON OF EDIT: Rolled it back on the number man's admittance that it was probably biased.
That's a fair point. We don't strictly require a Sect Mission right now.
EDIT: The adjustment has been done, two Cultivate on our Owns set up as Bad Luck Protection, with AE if we don't need the Bad Luck Protection. We're still hanging out with Zeqing and Zhengui though, which were the core parts.
That being said, this is hardly set into stone, and I can switch back at a thought if there's an outcry. Fellows, if you don't agree, notify me and I'll roll it back to the older version where we do a Sect Mission instead.
SON OF EDIT: Rolled it back on the number man's admittance that it was probably biased.
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BungieONI
Seven gremlins in a trench coat
- Location
- Lickwidget
- Pronouns
- She/Her
I'm pretty sure your Black Worm job is actually the wiser choice, since I know I have a personal bias for AE and always have. Additionally your single cultivation recovery actions should be enough to recover unless the Dice Gods decide to Fuck us with a Ballpeen hammer right in the ass.
E: Though on the other hand, Renshu might have summoned those super buff worms with AE that he fought Meizhen with so that's something to consider that our worms won't forever be shite on a bike.
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Alectai
Speaks Words of Wisdom... On occasion
Hah, fair enough, I'll roll it back.
BungieONI
Seven gremlins in a trench coat
- Location
- Lickwidget
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Oooooooooooooo artsu!
Yum yum.
E: That expression gives off a very strong feeling of "Ah shit!" which I find highly amusing.
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BungieONI
Seven gremlins in a trench coat
- Location
- Lickwidget
- Pronouns
- She/Her
I am now imagining Ling Qi covering Dio - Holy Diver, with Zhengui as back up dancer.
MOBILE OPPRESSION FORTRESS GO GO GO!
Wiggin42
Wage Slave
[X] Plan Our Friends Will Understand if We're Busy
BungieONI made a good point about getting the most out of our drugs; forgot that they only applied this turn and was thinking doing Physical and Spiritual over two weeks would be just as easy as doing it all at once. In hind sight, that's obviously not the case. That's tipping me over to the all-in run.
BungieONI made a good point about getting the most out of our drugs; forgot that they only applied this turn and was thinking doing Physical and Spiritual over two weeks would be just as easy as doing it all at once. In hind sight, that's obviously not the case. That's tipping me over to the all-in run.