So we know there is around 50-100 girls. Assuming rough parity (unlikely), this means there should be around 150~~~ disciples in our year alone.
Ah. Useful to have hard numbers there; thank you. So there are ~75 girls, which means we 150-300 disciplines depending on how much gender-equality there is in recruitment. For simplicity, I think it is best to just call it 160, since that gives us nice round numbers to work with when compared to the number of inner-sect recruitments per year.
'Well, there should be around 30 people in second stage right now, and there is 16 places through the tournament, so if it was just this year's disciples alone they should each have 40% chance to get there' generalisation (which utterly ignore people coming from behind)
I'm not sure if you are just mentioning this for your example, or if this was also a reference to my post - but I do what to note that if my explanation of 160 people being accepted in the outer sect and 16 being accepted in the inner sect means that 10% of outer-sect recruits will be able to join the inner sect,
accounting for cross-class competition. Think about it this way: while some people in our class will get into the inner sect on a subsequent year, some of the 16 slots for our year are taken up be people from previous classes doing the same. If our class is better than average, we can expect more of the slots for inner sect that are created over the years to go to us than expected, but that comes at the cost of pushing out less-than-average contenders from the years below and above us. For average
discipline in general, the odds are 10%.
Or another way of thinking about it. Over 100 years, the sect will have recruited 16k people into the outer sect, and 1.6k among them will have made it to the inner sect. Whether or not people got promoted the year they got in, the fraction of recruits who got promoted remains at 10%.
I think all of those are extremely important, in no particular order, if you are going for the tournament route:
* Being healthy, your gear/tools unbroken and able to go and participate during the tournament week.
* Always trying. If/when you doubt yourself, don't stop improving while you work through your doubts and grow stronger from it. Never stop.
* Reach for opportunities constantly. Be it exploration or mission sects or taking over the outer sect, constantly find ways to challenge yourself.
* Obtain powerful methods. If your luck is bad, you are shit out of luck.
* Acceptable Talent.
I think that is fair. The 10% number is what you get by measuring success directly, which in turn is influenced by a multitude of factors. You can analyze how some or all of those factors play out for a given discipline to get a a much more accurate estimate; in fact, loosely speaking that was what I was doing with my own estimates. But I like this list; it provides a good breakdown of what the major factors are.
I do like your breakdown, and your explanations. I don't agree with them
entirely though, so I've taken a bit of time to what I would say the leading factors are. As a note, this does draw heavily on the work you've already done, so for anyone else reading this, major attribution to @
Arkeus for giving me a foundation to base the following on.
(1) Being able to participate during tournament week.
[Elaboration] Ideally, being at peak condition for the tournament - at full health with all your gear/tools available. Failing that, at least being free of debilitating wounds and having any gear crucial to your build.
[Explanation] If your ability to display your full abilities at the tournament is compromised, even by merely short-term damage, that blocks you from participating in the tournament that year.
[Scope] Relevant for your ability to progress
this year, barely relevant to progressing eventually.
[Influence Factors] Having the support/resources to recover from losses, Having enemies willing and able to sabotage you before the tournament.
(2) Having the ability to progress quickly
[Elaboration] Being able to make fast progress in your track, whether it is combat or production. A LARGE factor of this is simply Talent, but availability of resources can also be important.
[Explanation] If you want to keep up in a given year, you have to advance quickly. If you are willing to delay your promotion an extra year or more, this is somewhat less relevant, though if you are at risk of losing motivation otherwise and/or the sect puts up barriers for older disciplines, you still want to avoid moving too slowly.
[Scope] Extraordinarily relevant for your ability to progress
this year, somewhat relevant to progressing eventually.
[Influence Factors] TALENT, Resources, Having enemies willing and able to slow you down.
(3) Never giving up on getting stronger.
[Elaboration] Being able to get over setbacks and keep moving forward - and also defining "forward" in a way that leads you towards advancing your abilities at martial combat or production, depending on the track you choose.
[Explanation] The road to the peak is long and winding, and a cultivator who wants to advance must
try to advance. To get to the inner sect, it is necessary to want to get stronger, either in terms of martial strength for the standard track or in terms of production abilities for the production track. A priori, most people at the sect are going to want to get stronger to some extent (why else would they be here?), but not everyone has the conviction or determination to stick to that path. They will face failure, doubt, and general mental issues... and those who stop striving midway won't make it.
Note that ceasing to pursue strength may not be a bad thing for the individual involved; the climb towards strength is not for everyone, and perhaps they would be happier on a different road of life. Nevertheless, doing so means that the Inner Sect won't lie on their journey.
[Scope] Highly relevant for your ability to progress
eventually, somewhat relevant to progressing this year.
[Influence Factors] WANTING to get stronger, Strength of Character, Having friends who will back you up and help you get over your issues, Having to face more serious reasons to give up.
(4) Having strength
[Elaboration] Having powerful equipment, high cultivation, powerful arts, high attributes / masteries, etc.
[Explanation] While the journey is important, the distance to the destination is no small matter. Those disciplines who are strong already will find it much easier to be the front-runners by the time the selection comes around, and will have an easier time of things even if they wait until a later year. Strength is also important to avoid getting suppressed and to grasp your own opportunities.
[Scope] Extraordinarily relevant for your ability to progress
this year, somewhat relevant to progressing eventually.
[Influence Factors] Background, Fortuitous Encounters, Misfortunes, Crippling Injuries
(5) NOT DYING
[Elaboration] NOT DYING. More broadly, not losing talent, experiencing major mental trauma, or taking crippling injuries. Basically, avoiding something which would compromise any of the four points above.
[Explanation] Congratulations; you are healthy, talented, determined, and strong. Does that mean you are guaranteed an inner-sect slot? NOPE. You still have to survive to claim it, after all - and more than that, survive with your advantages intact. Disciplines aren't supposed to kill each other, but "accidents happen". And besides, there are more dangers to the mountain than just the disciplines.
[Scope] Extraordinarily relevant for your ability to progress
eventually, highly relevant to progressing
this year.
[Influence Factors] Strength, Support, Having good trump cards, Misfortune, Powerful/Ruthless enemies, Penchant for risky behavior
