[] Falling Stars Art
Good: Physical and works with our ranged weapon talents. Piercing through defense sounds appealing, just what we need.
The Bad: We can't use it with throwing knives in either melee or ranged. This makes it essentially worthless in the short term as we won't be able to hit anything that demands we make things work. By the time our archery's actually good, we'll probably get better arts. Qi disruption also quite feasibly overlaps with FVM, meaning its added utility is lower. Trash in the short term, redundant by the time it becomes good. PASS
[] Ice Wraith Art
The good: Works with our knives in melee, meaning we can likely use it now. Wind/water is a perfect element combination for where we are now. Self-buffs AND strong defensive utility that we don't have. A physical counterpart to AM's mostly mental defenses. Slotting this in and out means we can adjust for a known poison user or likely wintery weather. Very good as a situational art.
The Bad: No range. However, we currently have some ranged offense in both ZB and FVM, so that may be negotiable. Likewise, strong defensive utility probably means weaker direct offense. Situational superiority may mean that it's not as good as a first pick, but the fact that it covers more of our current weaknesses means it may be ideal for patching up holes in our build, the stated goal of getting arm arts in the first place.
[] Ashen Shadow Art
The good: Really really cool. Probably works with knives. Ash may be very interesting with mist. One extra level may make it better on the whole.
The bad: Unclear advantages on the ash. At early levels, blinding and choking with a cloud of stuff probably overlaps heavily with FVM. I can see potential, but it's a mystery box. Fire is also kinda meh from a personal standpoint.
Edit: Missed that this can work without not using FVM. This means even with overlap this may be wonderful and probably the best option in the short term.
[] Rippling Lake Art
The good: Support spec works well for us and lets us erode enemies' defense, making other things better. Plays very well with our specializations, and adds on to elements we already have and aren't likely to drop.
The Bad: More support means it's going to be weaker at filling our holes in the short term.
Basically, aside from Falling Stars, which is blatantly and obviously the worst pick, anything is tempting. Ashen Shadow is probably my second least favorite, as most of the stated benefits are stuff FVM does already, but FVM is likely a better art given the origin, so it's a lot of overlap without much visible certain gain. (Edit: Since we can use AS without dropping FVM it's the clear obvious pick. How is this even a discussion?) However, it seems to be the one with the best chance of actually winning against the bow art we won't be able to use well for months...
[X] Ashen Shadow Art
