- Location
- va
[x] Plan Double Break
Forge of Destiny(Xianxia Quest)
- Thread starter yrsillar
- Start date
- Original Fantasy
I think that people are unfairly suggesting the Double Break plan abandons social altogether. I said that I feel Li Suyin and Fluffy Tail are the only ones we need to social with right now and I meant it, we just upgraded our social links with Snekgirl and BurninatorChan this turn, we can let them chill a week while we break through in something, preferably both Yellow and Silver. If people are really concerned about social, they should probably be looking to Han Jian.
Missing out on house shopping is a bit of a shame, but I don't really feel it's a critical issue in comparison to making our breakthroughs and getting on with our advanced cultivation arts.
Missing out on house shopping is a bit of a shame, but I don't really feel it's a critical issue in comparison to making our breakthroughs and getting on with our advanced cultivation arts.
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TheLastOne
Person of impeccable tastes (for destruction)
Raging fire is winning. Not obvious because of how votes have split.
Arkeus
Crazy cat guy
- Location
- France
You are. We have something like 42% chance to succeed on a breakthrough (2 successes), and around less than 25% to get both. Thanksfully the odds of not getting any successes are much lower, but yeah.
I don't like the plan, in part, because it feels like Yrsillar will be in a position where they will have to decide how much to punish us if we aren't lucky as "week where we fail everything" is just not fun for anyone. It feels like it's double daring them to punish us.
TheLastOne
Person of impeccable tastes (for destruction)
Double dog dare him. The dog is important.
- Location
- Cyberspace
[X] Plan Housesitting Pretty
[X] Two Red Stones
-[X] Look into how Su Ling and Li Suyin are doing and cultivate at the vent
--[X] Give Su Ling the Lotus Root Pin and Li Suyin the Skirmisher's Anklets. They aren't gifts, they're just paying them for all the help they've given us - we wouldn't have claimed the arive pass without their support.
--[X] Offer Su Ling the Qi Foundation pills in trade - she hunts beast cores for Li Suyin. For the next two weeks she can hunt them for us too.
--[X] Spiritual
-[X] Go House hunting with Bai Meizhen
-[X] Talk to Han Jian see if he has any advice about the current 'political' situation
-[X] Breakthrough to Yellow if at peak red, silver otherwise
--[X] Finish Breakthrough if first roll succeeded. If we failed, spend some time with Gu Xiulan try to work out what has her so bothered by Li Suyin.
Eh, I suppose it's a reasonable plan, @TheLastOne
[X] Two Red Stones
-[X] Look into how Su Ling and Li Suyin are doing and cultivate at the vent
--[X] Give Su Ling the Lotus Root Pin and Li Suyin the Skirmisher's Anklets. They aren't gifts, they're just paying them for all the help they've given us - we wouldn't have claimed the arive pass without their support.
--[X] Offer Su Ling the Qi Foundation pills in trade - she hunts beast cores for Li Suyin. For the next two weeks she can hunt them for us too.
--[X] Spiritual
-[X] Go House hunting with Bai Meizhen
-[X] Talk to Han Jian see if he has any advice about the current 'political' situation
-[X] Breakthrough to Yellow if at peak red, silver otherwise
--[X] Finish Breakthrough if first roll succeeded. If we failed, spend some time with Gu Xiulan try to work out what has her so bothered by Li Suyin.
Eh, I suppose it's a reasonable plan, @TheLastOne
There really isn't much to say about the odds- doubling up on our chance to succeed on a breakthrough is pretty obviously doubling up on our chance to succeed at a breakthrough. Waiting won't change the odds, and it risks us being vulnerable longer- we've been patient and gotten our Qi to a point where further returns are unlikely to be economical, and our peers like Huang Da and Gu and Han are all stepping into Yellow. We've also just stepped into a political bee's nest- I don't think wariness is paranoia at this point, it's common sense.
[] Plan Housesitting Pretty
but I think I've betrayed the first plan I voted for in the last three non-combat votes, so I don't know how much this counts for.
Already reconsidering. I feel like asking Xiulan why she doesn't like Li Suyin isn't productive. It's fairly apparent from what we know of her and it would be a bit irritating for her to have to explain that to us. She loves violence, the meek pacifist isn't something that she would care to befriend. She holds the, " if you are unwilling to stand up for yourself, you don't deserve my respect" sort of view.
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- Location
- United States of America
But each success is independent of each other. The first one has a 65% chance to succeed, and if it succeeds there is no decrease in the odds for the second chance.
To use X-com as an example, if my goal is to miss the alien, and I have a 45% chance to hit him with two different people, The first guy missing doesn't impact the second guy's chances at all. If the first guy hits, then it falls in the 45% odds and the second guy's odds doesn't matter.
But this will be the last you hear of this from me. I'm sure that other people much more adept at math have figured the odds.
DarkLight140
Credit to Team
- Location
- Lost in my thoughts
The odds look like the table below. Note that the probability of getting at least one breakthrough completed (the sum of all odds in the "two" row and column) is pretty good- 66.65%.
| Successes | Zero | One | Two |
| Zero | .1225 | .0796 | .1479 |
| One | .0796 | .0518 | .0961 |
| Two | .1479 | .0961 | .1785 |
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- Location
- Croatia
Yes, but we are talking for a full breakthrough to Yellow/Silver stage. For 2 successes in a row, there is a 42,25% chance. For 4 successes in a row, which plan "Double Break" suggests, there is a 17,85% to succeed in both full breakthroughs. And if we miss, in a worst case scenario, by rolling a double 100s, we would lose 35 spiritual and physical cultivation, leaving us at 25/60 on both. That is going to take weeks to recover from, and we need our allies to defend ourselves in that timespan. Sure, we may succeed on the first roll, but if we fail on the second one, we still need to retrain those numbers. Fact is that breakthroughs are risky, and I would rather not sacrifice large parts of our cultivation.
- Location
- Red Blood on Golden Shield
[] Plan With All the Strength of a Raging Fire
Edit: changed vote
Edit: changed vote
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- Location
- UK
- Pronouns
- They/Them
She also comes across as kinda possessive so the fact that she seems to believe Li Suyin's been riding our coattails (which isn't true since it's been mutual) doesn't help.
- Location
- United States of America
I just thought of something guys. ... we are gonna get soo many gifts later on.
I know everyone is talking about what enemies we have etc
But remember this. We are a clanless girl who is shooting up the ranks fast as hell. I have no doubt we'll catch up to our friends eventually and these are nobles who have been training for years with access to lots of recourses .
So cai family is probably gonna wanna poach us to their household and use the whole "cmon bro you were born here."
Bei family doesn't have many allies right now and a powerful cultivator would be a boon.
The same for any of our other noble friends with families with less then stellar reputation's atm ( Gu and Han)
AND to top all of that we are a girl. Which means marriage candidate. ( I can just see Gu throwing cousins at us to try to make us part of the family, " Oh what about my cousin Lu Bu, he has been DYING to meet you. Or there's Yang or Blah blah blah blah
I know everyone is talking about what enemies we have etc
But remember this. We are a clanless girl who is shooting up the ranks fast as hell. I have no doubt we'll catch up to our friends eventually and these are nobles who have been training for years with access to lots of recourses .
So cai family is probably gonna wanna poach us to their household and use the whole "cmon bro you were born here."
Bei family doesn't have many allies right now and a powerful cultivator would be a boon.
The same for any of our other noble friends with families with less then stellar reputation's atm ( Gu and Han)
AND to top all of that we are a girl. Which means marriage candidate. ( I can just see Gu throwing cousins at us to try to make us part of the family, " Oh what about my cousin Lu Bu, he has been DYING to meet you. Or there's Yang or Blah blah blah blah
Worse than that; I think it is 65% per roll. And we need two successes to pass a single breakthrough.
It doesn't make sense to judge plans by their worst case scenario - but judging them by the best case scenario is no better. The correct thing to do realistically label those plans as "tries to breakthrough".
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Yes, Raron has the numbers for the scenarios in his post.
- Location
- United States of America
Hmm raron makes a good point if we fail both we are fucked. As we lose experience in both silver and yellow . And have the spend a week training again just to get those back to peak and then attempt another breakthrough roll. It's a lots safer to try one at a time just on case we do fail
- Location
- United States of America
Hmmm, I would like to remind everyone that the sooner we can get to AS 5, the sooner we can get to EPC. Once we reach EPC then our progress should increase tremendously. In order to get as many successes before moving on to yellow, cultivating AS now while we still have access to one of the Qi foundation pills is absolutely vital.
The odds quite literally are not going to change from this point on. If we fail, we fail, if we succeed, we succeed.
It kind of boggles my mind people are saying 'but we only have a 18% chance of succeeding at both' as if that means something. We will have a 18% chance of succeeding at both whether we try both this turn, or whether we try spiritual this turn and physical next turn, or whether we wait and try to do both five turns from now. The only relevant issue with regard to breakthroughs in terms of the odds is if having a second go at spiritual or physical is required, we can't build up to try again a second time until we've tried a first time.
It has a 25% chance of total success. More importantly in my eyes, it only has a 25% chance of total failure (zero breakthroughs), whereas the other plans have a 50% chance of this. Given that our future plans depend on having broken through (for safety, if nothing else), I want to increase the odds as much as I can.
It's not safer.
This whole conversation strikes me as bizarre. The point of cultivation progress since our last cultivation-increase is solely to let us make breakthroughs. There is nothing else those points do. Holding off because we are worried about losing them makes as much sense as holding off from assembling a desk after you bought all the parts to it.