You know, out of the whole lot of that, this pisses me the hell off:
Because:
Bolding mine for emphasis. The notion that somehow this is "retarded write-in bullshit" is verging on bad faith debating.
No, it's not. This is not "retarded" write-in games. This is a good faith effort on the part of the playerbase to be, for lack of a better term,
cunning. There are situations where this maneuver would actually make sense. I myself used to favor focusing on two and only two targets- the silos for the Subspace Wavefront System, and the sun station.
The problem is that we have people behaving as though splitting to hit three targets exposes the fleet to extreme, overwhelming danger.If this were true, it would indicate that hitting three targets is
obviously wrong. Since a very conservative naval officer who has detailed knowledge of the defenses considers "thirds" to be acceptably-sized forces, I doubt this.
We were given the option to hit "up to three" targets. Unless "up to three" was a trap option and we were set up to fall into the trap, then I think that "no no it's too dangerous, focus the whole fleet on one thing" represents a
classic example of the playerbase deciding to use lateral thinking to avoid a perceived (illusory) danger. Quest players do that. It's a known tendency that anyone who's followed quests is aware of. I don't see how it's dishonest debating to bring up the possibility.
There is a very real risk that if we focus on too
few targets, we won't damage the defenses enough to neutralize their benefits before a heavy enemy fleet arrives, at which point we take a beating or have to run away leaving the system minimally damaged. Honestly, that's the most likely explanation I can think of for how the Ked Paddah fought over this system eight times without winning!
I really haven't gotten the implication that there will be multiple waves of attacks. My interpretation is that we're balancing the risk to our ships against the reward of fewer enemy superscience installations that we'll have to cope with for the rest of the attack, after our initial strikes. Essentially, I think we're 'paying' with fleet strength for reduced special capability on the part of the Licori.
Bluntly, if we don't get multiple waves of attacks, then the Ked Paddah and Thuir are very ill-advised to be launching the attack.
All the defensive facilities need to be neutralized, not just a few critical ones. We'd be out of our minds to leave Iron Hail, Ixira's Scalpel, and Iron Dome intact behind us while engaging the main world fortifications around Ixira III
If they only think they have time to hit one wave of targets, before heavy reinforcements can arrive, they should be planning this as a massive raid, not as an all-out offensive to capture territory.
It's important to remember we're operating on more a WW1 or WW2 level of intelligence here, where "That's not battlecruiser squadron, that's the High Seas Fleet!" is a thing that happened, not modern day or Cold War where we have U2s and satellites and the instant a ship moves, we know. This is especially true for ship movements within the system with Silent Repose in operation (fucking GAP generators).
I'm sure Thiur and the Ked Paddah are well aware of the possibility of reinforcements, and they alert us to such in the post. However, what they don't know is if the Emperor will actually scramble a fleet. Remember, Feudal society, so he could easily also hold his fleet in reserve to get rid of a problematic house or send a token force. I'm also sure if reinforcements are sent Thiur will be smart enough to have kept a picket force and will withdraw before things get too dicey. If the Ked Paddah don't want to because they took Will: VERY HIGH that's their prerogative.
MADE UP NUMBER ALERT!
What I'm saying is that... suppose that it takes six hours to launch an attack on a single target. Our ships can warp in, wreck their first-wave targets, and regroup in six hours. After that time, they're ready to do something else- be it "retreat" or be it "let's go bonk some more creepy yellow-eyed number-filled heads together."
Given that this is true, and given the known distance from Ixira to the major Licori fleet base(s) near their homeworld, it is a matter of basic arithmetic to say "yo, how many targets can we hit before heavy reinforcements show up?" This has nothing to do with knowing exactly what
will happen or exactly identifying all Licori ships. It's a generalized observation based on math and astrography.
If it takes twelve hours for the reinforcements to arrive the answer is "two, but time is tight." If twenty hours the answer is "three, but that would be a long day of fighting and we'd be exhausted." If it takes four days for reinforcements to show up, but only six hours to bust up a single target, then the answer is "you can hit as many targets as you want!"
Now obviously any such estimate could be wrong. The Licori COULD be trolling us into attacking a system defended by their entire fleet. The Licori COULD have a fleet already halfway there before we even show up. But SOME estimation should be possible. They should have SOME number that reflects, realistically, how many complete waves of attacks they're likely to get to bust up the defense station, before having to fight anyone's heavy metal. And it's fine if that number is pessimistic.
Now, if the answer to "how many attack waves" is "two or more," we can do this- we can neutralize the huge 'buffing' advantages of the defenses before a major fleet arrives to exploit those advantages. If the answer is "only one," then conquering this system is going to be either impossible or insanely hard. In which case we'd be
idiots to expect them to conquer the system, and so would Thuir and the Ked Paddah.
On a sidebar: while they think otherwise, due to Silent Repose Ixaria could have most of their fleet in the system already. If so, and we get our Thirded fleet ganged up on,
@SynchronizedWritersBlock would be totally justified in posting an "IT'S A TRAP" gif.
Why yes. Yes he would.
[Cue the Padishah Emperor going all Palpatine on poor captured Commodore Thuir and torturing him with random lightning gauntlets the Ixirans whipped up for him because lightning hands is AWESOME.]
I'm just as worried about a smaller force given the boosts. Two frigates and one cruiser could fight off one of our 3-way-split fleets. Four frigates and a cruiser could probably win the fight for Ixaria Prime orbital. Keep in mind that under far less favorable conditions, one frigate and one outpost had a chance to rout an entire task force.
I think that had to do with staggeringly bad luck on the minefield rolls- sort of like how the massive Dardanelles offensive fleet (the one that
preceded the ANZAC troops getting thrown into a meat grinder) turned back after three battleships took mine hits within a matter of minutes after hitting literally the only string of mines the Turks had even bothered to deploy.
We can't really compensate for bad luck on the minefields. And expanding each component task force to 50% of our fleet instead of 33% will only do so much to help us if we sail through a minefield and out the other side with one explorer crippled, one damaged, and three frigates vaporized or something.
The only way we can even vaguely hope to be 'immune' to such kinds of defeat is by keeping the whole fleet bunched up in one place. Trouble is, if we do that, whatever target we hit, other targets can screw us. The Subspace Wavefront system, if left intact, means that our fleet ends up scattered and chewed up piecemeal no matter what we intended. The sun station likely contains a weapon capable of frying our whole fleet if given time to prepare. Silent Repose, already a menace even before heavy reinforcements arrive, becomes incredibly dangerous to our fleet after reinforcements arrive.
If we keep the fleet bunched up in one big blob, we MIGHT be safer (though all ships still get exposed to mines). But we'll be in so few places that the actual damage we do is going to be minimal