They could give you very precise estimates for an Arcadian Empire not at war with the Federation.
Now? Not so much. Who knows where the explorers are being held now, and how many they will dispatch. It invalidates previous understanding.
They may not even reinforce the system as well.
It's not so much that they should be able to tell us exactly what 'will' happen. But there should be a reasonable range of estimates. Given the travel times "they plausibly could be here within an hour" says some very significant things, as does "it would take days." They should have a
clue, or at least be able to think in terms of "well, if the Licori deliberately forward-deployed a reinforcement fleet they could hit us in an hour, but if their fleet is concentrated at their homeworld it will take umpty-ump hours to arrive at the highest speed we've ever seen them travel."
This isn't really about knowing where the ships are based and the exact instant at which they
must arrive. It's about basic arithmetic, making and discussing multiple contingencies, and planning ahead. Given the Ked Paddah's famous foresight and planning and caution, this should be a routine thing for them to do whenever planning anything.
I can't imagine the Ked Paddah planning this attack if they
really believe that suddenly there is absolutely no knowledge or reasonable hypotheses they can form about Licori capabilities. And, again, if the Ked Paddah do have some idea what they think most likely to happen... if they only expect to be able to hit one wave of targets before heavy reinforcements arrive, as many posters here are asserting... then this attack is
incredibly stupid and the entire phrasing of the most recent quest post is effectively us agreeing to go on a fool's errand.
The Ked Paddah should not be planning to conquer this system if they don't have time to methodically neutralize its defenses before a heavy reinforcement fleet can arrive. Their 'hat' has been prudence since 2310, and it is
not prudent to gamble on "maybe a reinforcement fleet will arrive in time and maybe it won't."
Which would be fine if the mines were the only things to worry about in any given battle, rather than the mines, the long-range torpedo station, and the defenses of each individual installation. Splitting the force into three detachments, with the scattering effect in play, means our forces wouldn't show up with "stomp the defenses" level of force to any fight. All the while, the sensor masking means that the commanders couldn't assign more ships to a detachment that would wind up fighting the (buffed) enemy ships.
Bluntly, on some level this simply does not matter. We have to trust that the Ked Paddah and Thuir aren't completely insane or stupid, and actually think they can plausibly hit three targets. If they're insane or stupid, then we're doomed no matter what we do- because that stupidity will express itself on the battlefield, not just in the battle planning.
I say, let's assume that "we can hit three targets" isn't just some gratuitous trap set by Oneiros to trick us into wrecking our own fleet by doing exactly what he said. Let's assume that it is not the case that our stupid, stupid field commanders are dooming us to defeat by ludicrously underestimating a foe the Ked Paddah have fought
seven times, drawing us into a trap that ONLY a cunning write in vote option can save us from...
Now, getting that out of the way. It would be
nice to concentrate our forces and hit targets one or two at a time.
However, the people making hardline "one target" votes are ignoring targets we
really need out of the way- like the unknown mystery device near the sun, like the very jamming and navigation-disrupting systems that make this whole offensive risky in the first place.
Furthermore, the fewer targets we hit per wave, the more times our ships get exposed to minefields before this is over- if we massed every ship and attacked each of seven targets with a single concentrated fleet, that fleet would get dragged lengthwise through
seven minefields. I doubt we'd have much of a fleet left just from that, regardless of anything else.
If we don't have enough force for Thuir and the Ked Paddah to plan on hitting multiple targets simultaneously based on the
known strength of the defenses, this attack plan shouldn't be happening at all, the Ked Paddah should never have suggested it and Thuir should have said something. We are getting literally zero in-game indication that this attack is such a demented gamble as some of the questgoers are making it out to be.
...
Furthermore, we have people implicitly assuming that reinforcements will arrive fast,
and therefore we must concentrate our forces. Very well... but in that case we shouldn't be planning to conquer the system at all, because we'll be facing a heavy Licori fleet and largely intact defenses at the same time. That's a combination we can't reasonably hope to beat without heavy losses.
Since the Ked Paddah and Thuir aren't a bunch of gibbering morons, and apparently
they think that they have time to win this battle before being forced to deal with a heavy enemy fleet... I feel we are compelled to believe them.