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Warhammer Fantasy: Divided Loyalties - an Advisor's Quest

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DragonParadox said:
As far as I can see the notion that we have to keep trying things seems to me made to some extent of the sunk cost fallacy (we are here therefore we must get some answers that are worth everything we have already sacrificed) as well as a sort of protagonist syndrome (We are the hero therefore we must do hero things and get a climax).

I'm not accusing anyone of arguing in bad faith I get the urge to obtain answers I just don't think they are worth the horrific risks not just to Mathilde but everyone with her.
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we were tasked with ascertaining the status of karag dum and we haven't yet. Leaving does not ascertain the status of Karag Dum, so I am not in favor of leaving. Accusing people who don't flee at the second sign of hardship on an expedition to the Chaos wastes of the sunk cost fallacy seems rather rude. This expedition has gone as well as can be expected, our goal is in sight and we've only lost like 17 people who weren't suicidal. Turning back now is not even necessarily the safest option, there is a non-zero chance that Dum might provide tools and material to fix the road, which has a chance of killing us all on the way back unless you want to spend more time in the chaos wastes and go over sea ice.
Strange9 said:
Right, but what I mean is the Karaz Ankor can't (and won't) do that. We've seen this with the Dawi-Zharr, who were much worse, from a Grudge-y point of view, who the Dawi do not in fact habitually send armies at, despite the fact that grudge has lasted for literally millennia. Also the grudge against the Greenskins, or Chaos, or what have you. The sad truth of the matter is that the Dwarves can't (and thus don't) seek to pursue all the vengeance they can. There are just too many grudges, and in this instance Dum is way too far away and way too in-the-chaos-wastes to ever send an army at it.
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Right, they prioritize which grudges they go after first because of the no more dwarves clause, but them grudging Dum alienates a potential ally who is capable of turning chaos wastes back into regular ground and could result in more rune knowledge being declared heretical in the future like that axe Kragg found. And if they survive to deal with most of the local grudges, then they will start sending armies after karag dum to avenge grudges.
 
D.Rockstar said:
Safety isn't the same as smart.
Plenty of short term safety options could carry long term problems and danger.

I want to know if this is one of those.
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Sure, but we know some of the risks of trying to find out and they are considerable. We don't know the risks on the other side. When confronted with unknown unknowns a conservative approach is preferable to YoLo.
 
wrecksalot said:
we were tasked with ascertaining the status of karag dum and we haven't yet. Leaving does not ascertain the status of Karag Dum, so I am not in favor of leaving. Accusing people who don't flee at the second sign of hardship on an expedition to the Chaos wastes of the sunk cost fallacy seems rather rude. This expedition has gone as well as can be expected, our goal is in sight and we've only lost like 17 people who weren't suicidal. Turning back now is not even necessarily the safest option, there is a non-zero chance that Dum might provide tools and material to fix the road, which has a chance of killing us all on the way back unless you want to spend more time in the chaos wastes and go over sea ice.
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They are not answering hails, what makes you think they would be inclined to give us tools just because we dared the beastman infested forest to get to their front yard. Crucially Borek knew about the road and he still left.
 
DragonParadox said:
Sure, but we know some of the risks of trying to find out and they are considerable. We don't know the risks on the other side. When confronted with unknown unknowns a conservative approach is preferable to YoLo.
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we know some of the risks on the other side, namely that road that killed gotrek, or starving to death on the sea ice whichever route you prefer
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DragonParadox said:
They are not answering hails, what makes you think they would be inclined to give us tools just because we dared the beastman infested forest to get to their front yard. Crucially Borek knew about the road and he still left.
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Once again, if Borek is the end all be all of what is and is not unforgivable to dawi, then Mathilde should stab herself to death for making the eye of gazul, because his reaction was quite similar then.
 
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wrecksalot said:
Once again, if Borek is the end all be all of what is and is not unforgivable to dawi, then Mathilde should stab herself to death for making the eye of gazul, because his reaction was quite similar then.
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It's not about what he considers unforgivable, it is that he judges that his fellow dwarfs would not aid us in getting back. Those same fellow dwarfs are not answering semaphore messages. This is two pieces of evidence that they don't want to help. The reason for this is immaterial.
 
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wrecksalot said:
we know some of the risks on the other side, namely that road that killed gotrek, or starving to death on the sea ice whichever route you prefer
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Leaving has no major risks that will not still be there if we wait before leaving, right now we have supplies to get home, we wait here and those supplies start to run out.
Every day we spend here is an increased risk, even without taking any usual chaos waste issues into account.
GTFO is the least risky option, unless people want to argue that whatever is going on here is a long term risk greater than usual chaos waste shenanigans to forces of order, which i doubt, and from lot of arguments here people who want to stay do not believe either.
 
DragonParadox said:
Sure, but we know some of the risks of trying to find out and they are considerable. We don't know the risks on the other side. When confronted with unknown unknowns a conservative approach is preferable to YoLo.
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A but here is the thing. The winning option right now is the "a conservative approach" as you say. After all waiting is hardly a Yolo action.

and I hardly would classify maybe try to talk the other tribes a Yolo either.

(But yes,infiltrating is as Yolo as you can get).
 
[x] Approach the Kul camp peacefully and attempt to discuss the Karak with them
[x] Approach the Kvellige camp peacefully and attempt to discuss the Karak with them
[x] Fortify here and see if anything interesting happens over the next day
[x] Attempt to scout the forest at the base of the Karak
[x] Attempt to intercept a Kurgan war-party en route to attack the Karag and the Beastmen
[X] Attempt to scout the forest at the base of the Karak
[X] Attempt to infiltrate the Karak with magic

Walk away? Fuck no. I'd rather Mathilde die than not get the answer to this riddle.
 
wrecksalot said:
Kragg is not going to tell us any secrets, and there's no way he or anyone else down south knows what is going on here anyway. If we want to know what is going on, and inform the Karaz ankor of what is going on, then we need to find out what's going on.
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Should have said rumors. If the Runemasters didn't T-Pose some of their accomplishments over the centuries I'm gonna eat my hat.

Just from having some more data points we can extrapolate something. ..ie. what exactly were the rumors.
 
[X] Fortify here and see if anything interesting happens over the next day
[X] Attempt to infiltrate the Karak with magic
[X] Attempt to scout the forest at the base of the Karak
[X] Approach the Kvellige camp peacefully and attempt to discuss the Karak with them
[X] Attempt to intercept a Kurgan war-party en route to attack the Karag and the Beastmen
[X] Approach the Kul camp peacefully and attempt to discuss the Karak with them

Honestly, at this point I may agree that it is rational to leave... if they do not answer, they abandon the right to be heard. But my curiosity is overwhelming me, so I'll pray the dice are nice instead.
 
D.Rockstar said:
A but here is the thing. The winning option right now is the "a conservative approach" as you say. After all waiting is hardly a Yolo action.

and I hardly would classify maybe try to talk the other tribes a Yolo either.

(But yes,infiltrating is as Yolo as you can get).
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This is the Chaos Wastes. Breathing is risky here, never mind the denizens. It is safest to head southwards at once.
 
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[x] Fortify here and see if anything interesting happens over the next day
[x] Attempt to infiltrate the Karak without magic
 
[X] Fortify here and see if anything interesting happens over the next day

Here is the vote I have to do in order to not to leave.

[X] Approach the Kul camp peacefully and attempt to discuss the Karak with them
[X] Approach the Kvellige camp peacefully and attempt to discuss the Karak with them

Here is what I actually want.
 
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DragonParadox said:
Sure we know about the road, the thing is a mentioned above so did Borek yet he did nothing to facilitate us getting tools. So we could logically deduce that Dun in its current state is unable or unwilling to give us said tools.
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I was unaware Borek was psychic, and if he isn't then he might still be in debriefing.
DragonParadox said:
It's not about what he considers unforgivable, it is that he judges that his fellow dwarfs would not aid us in getting back. Those same fellow dwarfs are not answering semaphore messages. This is two pieces of evidence that they don't want to help. The reason for this is immaterial.
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The reason for this might not be immaterial if the dwarves of Dum are too ashamed to show their faces, us going to them would be something they can't ignore
Valmond said:
Leaving has no major risks that will not still be there if we wait before leaving, right now we have supplies to get home, we wait here and those supplies start to run out.
Every day we spend here is an increased risk, even without taking any usual chaos waste issues into account.
GTFO is the least risky option, unless people want to argue that whatever is going on here is a long term risk greater than usual chaos waste shenanigans to forces of order, which i doubt, and from lot of arguments here people who want to stay do not believe either.
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then it's a good thing I'm not advocating for sitting around for a day before leaving.

Not having come here in the first place was the least risky option, leaving now earns us all the risks of an expedition to the chaos wastes without achieving our goals

dpara said:
Should have said rumors. If the Runemasters didn't T-Pose their accomplishments over the centuries I'm gonna eat my hat.

Just from having some more data points we can extrapolate something. ..ie. what exactly were the rumors.
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the rumours might be guild secrets too, since even thorek can't get a straight answer, and its hard to tpose on people when you have to go through the chaos wastes to get there.
DragonParadox said:
This is the Chaos Wastes. Breathing is risking here, never mind the denizens. It is safest to head southwards at once.
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Are you ignoring word of QM, or do you also propose that we evacuate all of Stirland?
 
Wiadi said:
Mathilde has done a lot of not-exactly-heroic things in her time. Like torture, or assassination (some of them at least - talking "Lahmian pawns," not "Orc Shamans"). She's a grey wizard & worked as a Spymaster. She's no stranger to doing unpleasant things for what she views as the greater good.
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And she did all of those personally. Like, she specifically asked to personally participate in the tortures and assassinations.

She so far hasn't let other people be subjected to something she wouldn't do herself, and I don't think this is where she should start.
 
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