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People come here to trade. Ergo there are travelling parties on these wastes.
And its not like Daemons would care about Chorf rules about fighting near Uzukrul.
We were on the main road the whole time and found zero traces. And, frankly, I really doubt they'd have gone for a caravan.

The Skaven are guaranteed to be present, live in large numbers, and are easy to find. A caravan would only offer up a few souls, has no guarantee to be around, and would be difficult to find in the first place.
 
It does make me wonder if our sword is going to last less than eternity.

Perhaps that's the big difference between Alaric's work and Kragg's own- Alaric's was able to last 2,500 very active years. Very active.
This, of course, raises questions of what happens if our sword clashes with a runefang.

I'm not sure what a runefang does if hit with absurd amounts of force, will it block or get knocked back? Though I'd suspect that if we hit the edge of a runefang the force of our sword and how sharp the target is might lead to our sword being cut into or ruined.

I Think??? the sword would cut through dragonscale just fine, but if we wail on Gromril, runed gromril, or similarly tough enchanted armour, I think we might blunt our edge.

Except some of it can't possibly be. There are things so basic that, for them to be lost, runesmithing itself would be entirely lost. Things like the Rune of Stone.

So Kragg's obsessive honing of his skill should show in the runes that there just isn't much hidden knowledge to it. Things like Stone, Steel, Cutting, Speed. The barebones are still around. If they weren't, nothing else would be.
I mean, they supposedly did lose the entire field of tool-runes and only maintain the knowledge of how to make weapon runes.
 
Nobody sent the Iron Wolves text messages to update them about the weather in High Pass. The skaven didn't post about fighting daemons on Twitter. The maps being posted in the thread matter.
Of course, on the flip side, the Iron Wolves already habitually raid/attack travellers on this road per Mathilde. That doesn't happen from the Iron Wolves just randomly bumping into them without looking, that happens from the tribe making it a priority to monitor the road so they become aware of potential targets in advance so they can put together whatever level of force is required (and re: "whatever level" let's bear in mind that Kurgan tribes aren't small; the theoretical upper bound could be in the tens of thousands of warriors). There's plenty of reason to think they would have been watching even without anyone tipping them off about us in particular, because there's plenty of reason to expect them to be watching period. They don't have to be watching for us in specific to spot us if they make a habit of monitoring this road for targets anyway. Which they do, because the Skull Road isn't so clogged with caravans that you can become well-known for attacking them without even looking for them.

Also, as I alluded to before, the Plotter daemons have proven themselves to be interested in and willing to fuck with the Expedition before when they burned our supply cache. Attacking the Skaven means they'll have gotten enough sacrifices to rejuvenate at least some of their number and keep them on the mortal plane longer. And it literally only takes one to be a messenger to the local tribe of Chaos-worshipping raiders (or a handful, if they need them to spread out because they can't Tzeentch bullshit their way to just heading directly to them). That's a low-cost, potentially high-effectiveness way to fuck with an enemy through the gift of foreknowledge to Chaos's servants. Is there anything more Plotter-y than that?

tl;dr - I don't think the Iron Wolves would need to have been warned of our approach specifically to have a quite good chance of spotting us for the reasons I said before, but I also don't think we can casually discount the possibility that they were given advance notice of our approach.
So for once, we need to think like a grey and try not to provoke notice. Going out scouting is begging to get tangled up in something with a good chance of going loud.
...What? How does this even make sense? The Expedition already engages in regular advance scouting, because it would be crazy not to - declining to look for the enemy doesn't make them not show up. I mean. Fundamentally, the entire point of scouting as a concept is to become aware of the enemy before things get loud. And the Expedition typically does it with detachments of fully armed-and-armored Knights on kittybirds. How on earth does a single Grey LM provoke more notice than that? And if they did spot us, how exactly would they be more able to force, again, literally a Grey LM into an unwanted fight? The point of having us scout is that we can more easily range out far thanks to Shadowsteed in general and in specific our having a mastery for it, and that we are the most able to scout without attracting attention in return.

Not having us scout doesn't result in scouting not happening (thank goodness), it results in the Expedition having a shorter range within which it can hope to become aware of potential threats in advance and being less likely to become aware of potential threats without making them aware that we're aware.
And yes, the convoy is pretty much the opposite of stealthy - and while not *very* fast, is fast enough to make it so enemies would probably need advance warning to assemble sufficient force to do something to it.
IIRC, the Expedition's normal daily speed is around 40 miles. For one example of travel speeds of steppe nomads, Mongol armies were famous for being able to travel an average of 80 miles a day. So twice as fast. Also, let me emphasize, that's the Expedition's normal daily speed. Per the QM:
This is the leg of the Expedition where the speed of the steam-wagons will reduce to a crawl and the convoy might be most vulnerable to attack
Emphasis mine.
 
Adhoc vote count started by Ericwinter on Dec 30, 2020 at 4:57 PM, finished with 718 posts and 208 votes.
 
Ok so My idea is that the demons did not attack the skaven. I think the civil war is going bad or went bad for Moulder and we are seeing the fallout from it. I think k the Tzeentch demon is ahead of us and planning something.
Civil war was pretty much already done by the time we told Algard about it and it was several years ago. K8P was Mors' last stand and Pestilens was bleeding forces and holdings left and right while every other clan tried to end them before Horned Rat stops the hostilities. There is basically no path from that to "Moulder's outposts in Zorn Uzkul are weakened by civil war and not a daemonic attack".
 
It's very true that the Iron Wolves could assemble sufficient forces to overwhelm the convoy... but they would take hideous losses in the process. Their culture is probably very much based on "sustainable losses"... and this would almost certainly be far beyond that. Especially when their scouts report back about the Very Large Scaly Cat Dragon napping on the biggest landship.
 
People keep acting like Mattie doesn't know how to do the standard Grey stuff, but ... even a cursory scan will show she does it constantly.

The very last update or two is a fantastic example of this by the way. Mattie walks straight into two enemy bases and does nothing to attract attention, she just gather's information and supplies, takes a look for strategic/tactical information, and leaves without anyone looking twice at her.

She does stuff like this constantly. Literally all the time. She's fantastic at staying below the enemies radar and at being subtle.

The thing is ... "Mattie carefully avoids attention and does nothing of note aside from sneaking about" .... that doesn't actually stand out in the mind all that much, especially compared to her bigger feats.

It's important to remember though, that doing big, obvious things doesn't mean you don't also do hidden, subtle things. One of Mattie's key skills is that she has a very good understanding of precisely when and how to best go big, and loud, and make a show.

There are three archetype's Mattie has directly compared Grey Wizard's to. The Mystic archetype, the spy/assasin/thief/general sneak archetype, and the Showman archetype. She thrives in all three roles, and she doesn't really seem to ignore any of them. She's very good at knowing which role to embrace at what time, and when to blend the archetype's. It's just that the Showman archetype stands out more, literally by design, and it seems like people forget that she embraces the other two just as much because of how much more memorable the Showman archetype is.
 
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Of course, on the flip side, the Iron Wolves already habitually raid/attack travellers on this road per Mathilde. That doesn't happen from the Iron Wolves just randomly bumping into them without looking, that happens from the tribe making it a priority to monitor the road so they become aware of potential targets in advance so they can put together whatever level of force is required (and re: "whatever level" let's bear in mind that Kurgan tribes aren't small; the theoretical upper bound could be in the tens of thousands of warriors). There's plenty of reason to think they would have been watching even without anyone tipping them off about us in particular, because there's plenty of reason to expect them to be watching period. They don't have to be watching for us in specific to spot us if they make a habit of monitoring this road for targets anyway. Which they do, because the Skull Road isn't so clogged with caravans that you can become well-known for attacking them without even looking for them.

Also, as I alluded to before, the Plotter daemons have proven themselves to be interested in and willing to fuck with the Expedition before when they burned our supply cache. Attacking the Skaven means they'll have gotten enough sacrifices to rejuvenate at least some of their number and keep them on the mortal plane longer. And it literally only takes one to be a messenger to the local tribe of Chaos-worshipping raiders (or a handful, if they need them to spread out because they can't Tzeentch bullshit their way to just heading directly to them). That's a low-cost, potentially high-effectiveness way to fuck with an enemy through the gift of foreknowledge to Chaos's servants. Is there anything more Plotter-y than that?

tl;dr - I don't think the Iron Wolves would need to have been warned of our approach specifically to have a quite good chance of spotting us for the reasons I said before, but I also don't think we can casually discount the possibility that they were given advance notice of our approach.
I fully expect them to notice us, yeah. We're on their hunting grounds where they ambush caravans, after all, the place where caravans are most vulnerable. But we're not a caravan, and we're obviously not a caravan.

Like, imagine you're playing Iron Wolf Quest:
DineroX said:
It's a lovely morning on the steppe, and you are a horrible Dragon Ogre worshiper.

As you are patiently instructing your son about what is best in life -- to crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to get to pet their dogs -- one of the youngsters on scout duty comes riding up to your yurt. "My Khan, there are travelers on the Tea Road!"

"A caravan? Send a raiding party! We'll feast tonight."

"No, my khan, not a normal caravan. There's six enormous metal boxes on wheels, not drawn by cattle or horses but moving by themselves. They bristle with guns. Atop the largest there is a dragon sleeping. And riding in their van and rear are men on great beasts, wolves and bird-cat-things. We've never seen anything like it before. What are your orders?"

[ ] "A cautious approach is best. Perhaps they are here to make trouble for our neighbors, and we shall be in a position to profit. Alert the warriors and hold them ready if the convoy invades our territory, but do not strike yet." (Surrenders initiative, preserves forces)
[ ] "A caravan is a caravan and their strength is a feint. Send a raiding party." (Risks only a few warriors, but odds of success are low unless this is a trick of some kind.)
[ ] "This will require a full muster. Assemble everyone, and we shall crush them at dawn." (Much larger risk, but you greatly outnumber them.)
[ ] "Metal boxes? The prophecies warned of this day. We shall awaken God to crush them." (-100 Shaman Energy, Awaken the Old One goes on cooldown, ???)
...I feel the first option wins in a landslide, when you consider that the Iron Wolves have neighbors who will attack them if they are weak. If your business model is "attack vulnerable caravans," you don't risk a sizable force or your extremely costly pocket kaiju attacking a heavily armed and armored convoy that doesn't look like they're carrying trade goods.

So yeah, I expect them to spot us, absolutely. What I don't expect them to do is pick a serious fight. They might win, if they committed a large enough force, but it would hurt like hell and it's obvious from looking at us that it will hurt like hell. We have a fuckmothering dragon advertising that fact.

(And I don't expect the Tzeentch daemons to be spending the effort on contacting them: remember, #TzeentchGang was over a hundred miles southwest of us, and we're traveling east and north. Burning our supply cache was on their way, but right now we're leaving the Zorn Uzkul entirely while they were at the southern edge of it. How and why exactly did they get around us and lay a trap for us by telling the Iron Wolves to attack us without any one of us spotting them? Maybe if they were on a dedicated "screw these guys" mission, but if that's the case, why didn't they attack us when we were vulnerable at Karak Vlag? Their actions just aren't consistent with "our current mission is to ruin the expedition's day.")
 
The thing I don't understand about how the vote is going is why so much emphasis has been on Ruprecht. Rite of way makes sense, we made it for this. Green is sus and our subordinate, we should get on that. The falls are interesting themselves and because the lights want to check it. That leaves scouting or Ruprecht in my eyes. Can someone explain why people are so dead set on Ruprecht out of the two?
 
...I feel the first option wins in a landslide, when you consider that the Iron Wolves have neighbors who will attack them if they are weak. If your business model is "attack vulnerable caravans," you don't risk a sizable force or your extremely costly pocket kaiju attacking a heavily armed and armored convoy that doesn't look like they're carrying trade goods.
For the record, the Theoretical Alternate Universe Omegahugger would absolutely vote to Awaken the Old One.

In fact, there's a very real chance that that wouldn't even be an option because just before the Theoretically More Competent Omegahugger lobbied the thread to throw the Old One at a problem that absolutely did not need an Old One to solve.
 
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This, of course, raises questions of what happens if our sword clashes with a runefang.

I'm not sure what a runefang does if hit with absurd amounts of force, will it block or get knocked back? Though I'd suspect that if we hit the edge of a runefang the force of our sword and how sharp the target is might lead to our sword being cut into or ruined.

I Think??? the sword would cut through dragonscale just fine, but if we wail on Gromril, runed gromril, or similarly tough enchanted armour, I think we might blunt our edge.


I mean, they supposedly did lose the entire field of tool-runes and only maintain the knowledge of how to make weapon runes.
Ive said this a few times, but I'm 99% sure the runefang wins.

Elector Counts have over time fought some of the nastiest stuff in the Warhammer world at one point or another, from trolls to greater demons, to everchosons wielding U'zuhl, Slayer of Kings.

now, the Elector Counts don't always come out of those fights.

but the Runefangs are just fine.
 
The thing I don't understand about how the vote is going is why so much emphasis has been on Ruprecht. Rite of way makes sense, we made it for this. Green is sus and our subordinate, we should get on that. The falls are interesting themselves and because the lights want to check it. That leaves scouting or Ruprecht in my eyes. Can someone explain why people are so dead set on Ruprecht out of the two?
because people have been trying to talk to him for the last two turns.

A lot of people want to get through the leaders of the expedition from the beginning.

I totally expect that if he wins (I hope so) then Preceptor Joerg von Zavstra will be next.
 
Ive said this a few times, but I'm 99% sure the runefang wins.

Elector Counts have over time fought some of the nastiest stuff in the Warhammer world at one point or another, from trolls to greater demons, to everchosons wielding U'zuhl, Slayer of Kings.

now, the Elector Counts don't always come out of those fights.

but the Runefangs are just fine.

Maybe it'll be the same with our sword, 1000 years down the line, though. Less tested doesn't necessarilly mean weaker and, despite Dwarven claims, older doesn't necessarily mean stronger.

Mind you, I am still putting my money on Alaric's runefangs as being the victors, less money on a draw, and no money on Branulhune, I am just pointing out that this argument doesn't stand scrutiny, because Branuhine has never shown any signs of wear or tear either, and it has been in a fight with Slaanesh's big strong thing.
 
For the record, the Theoretical Alternate Universe Omegahugger would absolutely vote to Awaken the Old One.

In fact, there's a very real chance that that wouldn't even be an option because just before the Theoretically More Competent Omegahugger lobbied the thread to throw the Old One at a problem that absolutely did not need an Old One to solve.
"And even if it dies, if you'd just follow my advice, we'll have a permanent Old One corpse available to smite our enemies at all times! No more waiting!"
 
"And even if it dies, if you'd just follow my advice, we'll have a permanent Old One corpse available to smite our enemies at all times! No more waiting!"
Sadly, the Iron Wolves are unlikely to have access to necromancy, so the Theoretical Comptetent Omegahugger won't be able to advocate for it. That's the beauty of Mathilde, she's at all times just one step away from dealing with that pesky boundary between life and death.

Though that's actually a good thing, because if there's one thing our caravan doesn't need it's raiders who have good reasons not to care about casualties.
 
There are three archetype's Mattie has directly compared Grey Wizard's to. The Mystic archetype, the spy/assasin/thief/general sneak archetype, and the Showman archetype. She thrives in all three roles, and she doesn't really seem to ignore any of them. She's very good at knowing which role to embrace at what time, and when to blend the archetype's. It's just that the Showman archetype stands out more, literally by design, and it seems like people forget that she embraces the other two just as much because of how much more memorable the Showman archetype is.
I guess her... quirk might be that there's enough of the Showmanling at Mathilde's core that she does it all as herself. (Taking off her hat counts as disguise. :)) I imagine Regimand, for example, wouldn't have been caught short at the gates of Uzkulak, scrambling for a plausible alias. He'd probably have a patiently-crafted cover identity of, say, a shady Ostermark trader and smuggler- or at least have thought it up beforehand.

As you say, Mathilde has all of the Grey tradecraft skills to sneak in and out unnoticed, and has utilised Divine blessings to supplement that skill. She's gotten very, very good at slipping in, and thinks she's covered her weaknesses at exfiltration after going loud. But it's usually as Mathilde, the famous Dämmerlichtreiter. Mathilde started off acting in plain sight as a Grey Journeywoman Spymistress, which experience understandably shaped her subsequent approach.
 
Sadly, the Iron Wolves are unlikely to have access to necromancy, so the Theoretical Comptetent Omegahugger won't be able to advocate for it. That's the beauty of Mathilde, she's at all times just one step away from dealing with that pesky boundary between life and death.

Though that's actually a good thing, because if there's one thing our caravan doesn't need it's raiders who have good reasons not to care about casualties.

You act as if you are not competent as you are, and that a competent Omegahugger can only exist in theory.

I disagree. You are competent. You are just fighting for something that is, in this quest, a lost cause. No matter how competent one is, some fights are just unwinnable.
 
You act as if you are not competent as you are, and that a competent Omegahugger can only exist in theory.

I disagree. You are competent. You are just fighting for something that is, in this quest, a lost cause. No matter how competent one is, some fights are just unwinnable.

nothing is ever a lost cause... we just need something awful enough to happen.
 
Civil war was pretty much already done by the time we told Algard about it and it was several years ago. K8P was Mors' last stand and Pestilens was bleeding forces and holdings left and right while every other clan tried to end them before Horned Rat stops the hostilities. There is basically no path from that to "Moulder's outposts in Zorn Uzkul are weakened by civil war and not a daemonic attack".
I have to disagree their better troops were somewhere else while the comb was held by what appears to be the most basic of skaven here. Either the better trips were fighting someone or something happen. Mathilde suspects the demons attacked them but well we have not seen hard evidence. Also we do not know how the civil war ended or if it ended at all yet.
 
Late voting, but all the same.

[X] Preceptor Joerg von Zavstra.

[X] Sir Ruprecht Wulfhart.

[X] Journeyman Cyrston von Danling.

[X] Use Rite of Way to ease the ascent.

[X] Journeywoman Alexandra Kohler.
 
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