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The 12 on a 2d6 last update meant that virtually nobody escaped, the 8 on a 2d4 this update was for how many could still be saved. This is why I do major dice-rolls in thread or on Orokos, because if I didn't I couldn't really blame anyone for suspecting the rolls had been faked to increase the drama. By my maths that's about a 2% chance.
It's actually a 1/416 chance for this specific outcome. Double 6s are a 1/36, and double 4s are a 1/16. 36*16 = 416. It's certainly an unlikely outcome, although in my opinion rarer events have happened.

[X] Try to track the bandits

Edit: 16*36 is 576. I did 26*16 somehow. >.>
 
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There is a world of a difference between skywalk, a lesser magic and Substance to Shadow, a fiendishly complex one. I do not think it is reasonable for anyone who isn't an elven archmage or something to chain cast a fiendishly complex spell 300+ times safely.
There definitely is. Though Regimand was chain-casting Smoke and Mirrors with the occasional skywalk to keep downward velocity low.

Regimand has some nice tricks :)
 
Consider Mathilde's universal confusion mastery. As she moves around, or people move towards her they enter the spell's area and become subject to its effects even though they weren't there when it was first cast.

Also, consider the MAP, or the Illusion spell, which can be edited and controlled on the fly to change what it shows and what it does after the initial casting.

Yeah but that affects everyone. Substance to Shadow has to target a specific person or object, uncontrolled StS on the model of Universal Confusion would turn every untended object and every person within X range intangible, which sounds less than useful. Consider also that unlike illusion and MAP which merely affect the real world to cast StS you have to first cover something in Ulgu then pull them into the edge between reality and the Aethyr.
 
I'm surprised people want to scour the banks immediately.

The riverbanks will keep, while the bandits are getting further away by the minute. Also, the Dwarves are perfectly able to do the scouring, while we've got a better chance of catching the attackers.

Dwarves are much less capable of scouting the riverbanks than Mathilde, as they don't have Magesight, and it's likely that the more time passes that magical signatures will fade and any debris will be washed downstream.
 
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Dwarves are much less capable than scouting the riverbanks than Mathilde, as they don't have Magesight, and it's likely that the more time passes that magical signatures will fade and any debris will be washed downstream.
Why would bandits or mercenaries have magical gear?

And heavy stuff like discarded weapons aren't going to wash downstream. Anything light enough to wash likely will have done so immediately.
 
@BoneyM how much of the water is trapped in the sunken monitor vs being constantly pushed through by the current, and how heat resistant is the vesel? You mention a big problem is how cold the water is, so if more of it was trapped I'm wondering about using Mathilde's Dragonflask from one of the air pockets* to heat up the water around the ship.

Google tells me it takes about 4000 joules to raise one liter of water one degree C. The ship I'm using as a mental model for these monitors has a displacement of a bit over 1000 tons, which isn't the same as internal volume but let's go with that. One kilo of water equals one liter of water because yay for metric, so we've got one million liters of water, so it would take four gigajoules per degree of warmth, which is surprisingly close to the amount of energy in a ton of TNT. To raise water from something that will kill you in a few hours to something that will give you long enough for Barak Varr to arrive, you'd want about ten more degrees C. So 40 gigajoules or ten tons of TNT.

I don't know how to go about comparing the dragonflask to TNT, but I'm pretty sure it's not in the neighbourhood of ten tons.
 
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I'm surprised people want to scour the banks immediately.

The riverbanks will keep, while the bandits are getting further away by the minute. Also, the Dwarves are perfectly able to do the scouring, while we've got a better chance of catching the attackers.

We are also extremely tired in a way Shadow steed/Armor can't fix... being out and about in our condition while in goblin territory is asking for something horrible to happen to us. Like getting ambushed by things that normally wouldn't stand a chance. The banks are a "safe" pick that is also time sensitive: the river could destroy useful evidence.
 
Google tells me it takes about 4000 joules to raise one liter of water one degree C. The ship I'm using as a mental model for these monitors has a displacement of a bit over 1000 tons, which isn't the same as internal volume but let's go with that. One kilo of water equals one liter of water because yay for metric, so we've got one million liters of water, so it would take four gigajoules per degree of warmth, which is surprisingly close to the amount of energy in a ton of TNT. To raise water from something that will kill you in a few hours to something that will give you long enough for Barak Varr to arrive, you'd want about ten degrees C. So 40 gigajoules or ten tons of TNT.

I don't know how to go about comparing the dragonflask to TNT, but I'm pretty sure it's not in the neighbourhood of ten tons.

If it truly vitrified the sand during the test, ten tons of TNT might actually be on the low end, I think, but in the right ballpark.

Why would bandits or mercenaries have magical gear?

And heavy stuff like discarded weapons aren't going to wash downstream. Anything light enough to wash likely will have done so immediately.

They don't have to have had magical gear. They have to had gear made out of something that interacts with the Winds, so literally anything not lead or obsidian.

Heavy stuff will wash downstream. It will just wash downstream more slowly.
 
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Petty Magics
K / Sounds: Creates a noise of the type and volume of your choice, projected from where you choose within line of sight, though it can't convincingly mimic speech.

Fiendishly Complex
K / Illusion: You create an illusion at short range that can look, sound, and smell like anything you want. Requires near-constant concentration to maintain.
- Illusion will not be solid. If the illusion is implausible enough to raise suspicion, those subject to it might see through it.

Illusion can make sounds, and Petty Magic can make Sounds and Lights and stuff...

What about just using Illusion to make sound outside of the door? Just using Illusion to speak with somebody on the other side of a door?

We don't need to project a hologram or write a message and phase it through a door; we just need to be able to be heard through a metal door and say tell them to knock X times if they understand and have extinguished light sources. Is that possible?
 
[X] Scour the river banks for anything the bandits left behind

Holy fuck, Mathilde saves the day once again. We really are one of the best decisions Belegar ever made.
 
@BoneyM I really liked how you handled the riskier part of the rescue mission. First you confront Mathilde with it, but make her decide not to risk it quite yet, then after the main and less risky part is done you allow us to backtrack if we really want to. It's an elegant solution to balance player agency against subvote overload.

Anyway, how long did the rescue mission take? I'm between hunting the bandits and playing detective, but my vote depends on the answer to that.

The bandits I almost guarantee are a red herring, any evidence is in how this happened, not what the guys who fired pot shots and fucked off can do. So we need to investigate that before the trail goes completely cold.
They are (probably) a red herring to the larger mystery and relatively unimportant as we would judge it in the grand scheme of things, but they still imminently matter to the Grudge.
They do, but the language is a guild secret.
Damn morons. Every Dwarf mines, meaning every Dwarf might be caved in. Not teaching at least some basics to the wider populace should be considered a crime against Gazul.
Enchantment is really hard and really expensive and generally not something you employ for a one-and-done, as a detonator for a bomb kind of is inherently.
@BoneyM I know that you are against generic one use items in a quest format, but if we ignore the idea of anyone bit NPCs commissioning and using them, how much easier/cheaper are one use enchanted items compared to the reusable ones we can buy for College Favor?
In other words, would a Wizard-made bomb trigger be a feasible thing for a mission of medium importance by a Marienburger or Imperial agent?
Miners do. These aren't miners.
I assume that the Miners and Engineers Guild have a copyright on their specific morse code, right? Developing a completely new one that has nothing (as far as the inventor knows) in common with the secret one other than that it uses knocks on hard surfaces shouldn't be a problem, right? No more than using magically infused letters is an affront to the Runesmiths at least.
This is why I do major dice-rolls in thread or on Orokos, because if I didn't I couldn't really blame anyone for suspecting the rolls had been faked to increase the drama. By my maths that's about a 2% chance.
Personally I think you have proven yourself enough to deserve our unmitigated trust in such matters. That said, I still like that you link roll results just because they are interesting to see.
No. There's more Chamon in the metal than there'd be Ulgu in the spell.
Could a Gold Wizard's MMAPP go through it? Could we commission a Chamon item that projects the words "I'm here to save you, turn off the lights" through metal surfaces?
 
Actually, apart from tiredness, could Mathilde use Smoke and Mirrors to teleport into the locked rooms? Basing it on Universal Confusion so we can make it safer to cast with her staff?

We've seen Reginald perform what look like non-LoS teleports.

Edit: the spell book says it's restricted to LoS here.
 
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Now I wish we had taken the action to control our fire flickering arcane mark. If we could detect flames or make flames go out with our presence this would be easy.
 
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