Alright, so tournament lineup speculation.
I'm mainly gonna focus on the quarterfinals and above, because the specifics of the next round are hard to pin down and not actually all that necessary for further speculation.
Basically, the Liling, Meizhen and CRX are guaranteed to get in.
Shen Hu and us I legitimately just don't see losing unless paired against one of those three and I don't see that happening.
Ji Rong and Kang have fair odds to get in, even without line-up manipulation, but we already know the Sun are doing all they can, so while I don't think they'll get a free pass they will get fights they are very much liable to win.
Enough to impress but not to threaten.
The last entree I'm obviously hoping is Xiulian, but no matter what I see zero chance of Chu Song making the cut, meaning it'll be someone nominally aligned with CRX in the Sun/Cai divide.
I still don't buy that the sect is interested in taking in a political liability like her long-term (or that she's interested in hiding away in the sect for that matter), she cut ties with Liling publically enough that the Sun don't actually benefit from getting her a win and I actually feel Liling can get better use out of her elsewhere.
My read on the situation from the Sun perspective goes something like this:
Due to Shenhua being mother of the year and the Bai probably not all that interested in anything but Meizhen having a shot at beating Liling up, odds are they have a lot of leeway in shaping the overall tournament lineup.
The only major limitation are therefor not screwing up the coming round too much, since that touches the Sect's bottom line (hence my confidence in the top 7), not spoiling the show by making the big grudgematches happen too early and not screwing with Meizhen enough to give Liling an advantage.
Which essentially means:
Liling vs BLANK
Meizhen vs BLANK
CRX vs BLANK
BLANK vs BLANK
Is all but guaranteed, as is Liling, Meizhen and CRX being in the semi finals, at which point the big grudgematches mathmatically have to start happening, but the blanks ought to be filled in such a way as to give the Sun faction the best showing possible.
And in my eyes this means:
Liling vs Cai faction
Meizhen vs non Cai faction
CRX vs Sun faction
Cai Faction vs Sun faction
With the specific members being chosen so that the next round ends up as:
Liling vs Meizhen
CRX vs Sun Faction
Cause that's the only way for Liling to get a goon of hers this far, she has to beat Meizhen no matter what at some point and CRX is arguably the weakest and least backed of the three so easier to take on after revealing and expending some trumpcards against Meizhen.
Moving on to more specifics though, the fact that Liling wouldn't be facing CRX until the end means that CRX has a lot of opportunity to make good showings, which is bad for Liling.
Which is why I feel that making her face Ji Rong and Kang consecutively with both of them equipped to the max with anti CRX stuff and making use of the previous fights to scout out trumpcards is part of the gameplan here.
Which brings me back to Chu Song. As I said, I feel noone important actually cares enough to help her pass, but she could still serve Liling by getting CRX to reveal stuff rando yellow wouldn't, cause she's green with a green spirit beast at the end of the day.
Then either Ji Rong or Kang get a shot to push her even further and, while a knockout in the semi finals is still pretty unlikely for CRX, this route both maximizes that minimal chance and otherwise still makes CRX have as hard a time as possible and a poor showing as a result.
Figuring out the rest of the gameplan by process of elimination isn't too difficult either.
If all goes to plan, Liling takes out us in the quarterfinals to redress past humiliation and to make sure the presumably weaker final CRX ally can be matched up against her second goon and lose as well.
Meizhen gets Shen Hu because he's the only one left, the Bai don't mind as long as Meizhen isn't made to fight three other greens before facing Liling and the Sun are fine with this since Meizhen won't get to publically humiliate one of Liling's goons.
End result would be both sides getting an equal amount of goons in the top 8, but CRX losing way more people aligned with her in the coming round, Liling getting one goon further than anyone else and Liling taking out both others directly and winning the tournament.
Ultimately a lot of my reasoning here comes down to the fact that at least one of Liling's goon is going to have to go down in the Quaterfinals and the other one afterwards, meaning at that point it's a question of damage mitigation.
Meizhen is the stronger foe and due to the Bai actually caring a bit harder to stack the deck against, so having them face off against a disadvantaged CRX with specialized gear seems the most reliable way to ensure they don't go down easily.