I think you should listen to the in-setting AccomplishingProvidence take on this situation. This offensive hasn't destroyed Krukov's forces. The most valuable units he sacrificed were Black Hand formations and Titan formations.
The thing is... the Black Hand are always a mixed blessing for Nod warlords because they're fanatics about Nod ideology, and have a history of turning their guns on other Nod forces if they don't like their style. And those Titans are an extensively upgraded Tib War II unit; it is very likely that Krukov is running into the same problems we are with inability to repeatedly refit an aging platform with newer weaponry.
So the most valuable forces he lost were arguably expendable, and it's quite possible that he can replenish his material losses easily enough.
Cherdenko surrendering rather than having all the high-ranking Nod officers die in the fighting? That was a serious loss for Krukov. The rest? Not so much. I think you overestimate the scope of their losses.
Also, as a practical matter, Nod does escalate to full-scale pitched battle warfare against GDI in each major Tiberium War. For a man like Krukov, who is planning for Tib War Four, it is essential to know how his heavy units will actually perform in combat, and how well his own version of combined forces doctrine is working against GDI's defenses.
I was under the impression that Nod has a relative shortage of heavy equipment; if they had numbers
and firepower, they wouldn't need to be fighting an insurgency at all. Krukov's offensive cost him Titans, which means that he has to spend his limited industrial production replacing major material losses. Or he can just not have Titans for his next offensive, which will take away some of his options. You can't threaten an armored offensive without the armor.
He also fought a major air battle against GDI, and he lost that battle decisively. This meant sacrificing some of his most valuable air assets- the Barghests- but even more importantly it meant the loss of trained pilots. Pilot training is not simple, and it is not cheap. And the loss of
veteran pilots is catastrophic. The only way to gain combat experience is through combat, and lopsided dogfights are dangerous because they cement GDI dominance in the skies, which makes it harder for Nod pilots to gain that experience without dying.
Look at the effects of the British blockade on French naval ability. British crews were able to exercise and train freely in the open ocean, while French crews were stuck in port. They couldn't train properly or engage in smaller engagements, and the inevitable result is that when they did fight large battles, their performance suffered greatly.
Most of the casualties that GDI suffered were among the militia, while Nod lost armored units, aircraft, the trained crews for their armor and aircraft, and the Black Hand. Who are politically unreliable, yes, but they're also a symbol of strength and legitimacy for any Nod warlord who commands them. Losing them in a victory might have benefited Krukov; losing them in a defeat only reinforces the impression that Krukov has lost the Mandate of Heaven.
Krukov may suffer political consequences as vassal commanders view him as vulnerable. He suffered heavy losses among his core forces, the loyalists who are responsible for keeping him in power, and it's possible that the East may revolt against their "unworthy" leader. Cherdenko believes that Krukov's vassals in the Western theatre will begin fighting among themselves.
Krukov did test his doctrine. As it turns out, the best doctrine for how to fight GDI for control of the sky is..."Don't." The best doctrine for how to conduct major set-piece battles against an enemy with more artillery, better tanks, and control of the sky? Also "Don't". The best doctrine for how to mass forces to assault a fortified position? Once again, it's "Don't." Krukov has just confirmed, very painfully, that Nod is still an insurgency and that fighting GDI in the open field is profoundly unwise.
However, all of those significant defeats pale in comparison to the most important battlefield; hearts and minds. The Home Guard performed heroically, which will weaken their critics and permit GDI to launch a propaganda offensive using the Yellow Zone heroes. As you point out, Cherdenko surrendered
and he defected, which is yet another vindication of Granger's policy. We may pick up a substantial number of Home Guard, or at least good citizens who can reach out to their friends and families in the Yellow Zone.
Nod's political success rests upon the belief that Nod will ultimately be victorious. It also rests on deep-seated hatred towards GDI. This offensive has weakened both their confidence and their hatred. And Nod infighting will be deeply destructive of morale, as Nod commanders send them to fight their fellow Yellow Zoners rather than pursuing the Holy War against GDI. Civil war is not good for morale, and it's entirely possible that Cherdenko can reach out to some of his old friends and offer them a better way.
Krukov did test his doctrine. As it turns out, the best doctrine for how to fight GDI for control of the sky is..."Don't." The best doctrine for how to conduct major set-piece battles against an enemy with more artillery, better tanks, and control of the sky? Also "Don't". The best doctrine for how to mass forces to assault a fortified position? Once again, it's "Don't." Krukov has just confirmed, very painfully, that Nod is still an insurgency and that fighting GDI in the open field is profoundly unwise.
"Krukov lives, and his industrial base still exists". Yes. And that's
all the good news for Nod. They lost their best troops, they lost their best equipment, and now it's time for yet another round of "Warlord Power Struggles" while GDI
Krukov launched an offensive, he suffered heavy losses, and he weakened his position to the point that Nod will now be engaged in a self-destructive power struggle. A struggle that, thanks to improvements in our outreach program, we are now in an
excellent position to take advantage of.
As I said, if the man was a GDI spy, we'd have to be worried that he had just blown his cover.
Edit:
I would like to echo what Simon said.
In the end, it depends on what you believe the goal of Krukov's attack was.
If you thought it was to gain a substantial amount of territory or similar, then yes it was a major loss.
That was not his goal. His goal was to show that he has the capacity to hit deep into BZs(especially assuming that a united NOD replicates his tactics, ideas, and forces(politics yay) on a larger scale) for a worthwhile cost(expending possibly dated (albeit highly advanced) forces and a major buildup). He succeeded well at that and is likely going to be a key player in the future united NOD.
If his goal was to demonstrate that he has the capacity to launch a disastrously failed offensive, then mission accomplished!
He traded his aircraft, his armor, and his Black Hand elites for our militia. He also witnessed the defection of one of his major warlord subordinates, the surrender of a large number of Nod soldiers, and the likely collapse of West Russia into a Nod power struggle.
If this is winning, please give us more Nod victories. I pray that Nod does adopt his brilliant doctrines so that they can throw away more valuable assets making suicidal attacks against heavily fortified positions.
Krukov, man, we all love you. But you have to stop taking these risks. Sooner or later, they're going to catch on.
So, broadly, will Krukov be "the ultimate supreme uncontested leader of the Brotherhood of Nod"?Absolutely not. Will he gain influence and smaller warlords coming to him? Yes.
Because that is the thing. He did, even with just about everything going wrong, give GDI a black eye and demonstrated that he has something that can effectively be used against GDI. It is the same kind of benefit that Stahl has been gaining for deploying the infantry lasers and biprop guns, or Mehretu and Reynaldo with the assassinations. Those are serious bargaining chips that he can cash in when it comes to internal politics, and it means that Stahl can gather forces and try again. Being able to show that your methods can not only keep you alive, but actively hurt the Initiative is a barganing chip worth far more than even a battalion of heavy walkers.
Unless Cherdenoko is wrong- and he's in a good position to know- West Russia is going to disintegrate into infighting. With both of Krukov's major subordinates gone, the small fry are going to fight among themselves for power. Nod warlords fighting each other is obviously bad in terms of dead soldiers and lost equipment, but it's even worse in terms of morale, because it's hard to convince the rank and file that they want to die in inglorious battle between Warlord Dmitri and Warlord Vladimir.
Krukov has lost influence in the West. If his overly ambitious subordinate in the East thinks that he's weakened, Krukov may be facing yet another battle for control of the East. He witnessed the defection of a major Nod warlord under his command, and the surrender of that warlord's army.
If Nod wants to "give GDI a black eye" at the cost of their best equipment, their best soldiers, and a major propaganda victory, I only wish they would give us more black eyes. Please.
