With that said Simon, Housing refits after Chicago?

We expect another refugee wave from Karachi, might be a good idea to get everyone we can to high quality housing. And it's cheap.
I'm happy to squeeze in the housing refits whenever I feel like we have Infrastructure dice to spare. I just don't consider them to be a top priority activity.

We've already done so much to lower the population that's in 'low quality' housing that the vast majority of the people who live there probably have some degree of choice, or are well content to accept the location in exchange for minimal rent and good location, or something. It's not an irrelevant problem, it's still connected to quality of life, but if I had to put it on my list of priorities it'd be like #3 or #4.

And when we get a refugee wave, they're going to be in Low Quality Housing for a while whether we like it or not, because we can't build surplus HQ Housing at any useful rate in the foreseeable future.

Again, to be clear, I still want to do it and fully intend to do it by the end of the Plan. It's just not at the top of my list of things to do compared to stuff like "more forts to harden the border now that Nod's had long enough to recover that they might be capable of more meaningful raids"

Orcas were on the list somewhere, but not this one, SADN is a possibility but might swap to Infernium over it, might also throw in the last Shark buildup for good luck, mostly because Navy is still looking a little low on the Vessel Numbers,
Well, I'm still trying to game the numbers a bit. The Orca wingmen drones are wanted by both the Air Force and Navy, and the deployment time is such that we're under a bit more of a deadline. Naval laser refits are in a similar position 1-2 turns from now. With the Seattle frigate yard, I feel like there's a little more wiggle room in how big of a deal getting it done a turn or two faster or slower is. Unless we anticipate another major war within the next 2-3 years (and I don't), then the delays probably won't amount to much.

I don't think we have the Capital Goods income to support even doing the sensible AEVAs, like Tiberium and Military. Not unless we get a very unexpected windfall.
If we're willing to accept for a short time not being able to just keep pouring a giant river of Capital Goods into the stockpile, we can choose to do a couple more AEVAs. We'll be able to turn the river back on in a year or two, anyway, with Aberdeen and North Boston and possibly if we're lucky Nuuk Phase 4.

But that's an "if," and there's a price.

On a side note, Military isn't really a perfect candidate for an AEVA. It's nice, but not great. This is because Military has relatively few big long megaprojects, but lots and lots of little mini-projects where most of the time the +3 on a die roll just does nothing at all.

What's best for AEVA is projects where it's virtually certain that every turn we'll be spending the vast majority of our dice on projects that have rollover or that cost a thousand or more points of Progress, like Orbital, Heavy Industry, and Tiberium. Military and Light Industry, less so. Least useful AEVA, ironically, is probably Services, because we almost never get a really really big prolonged project there.

I'd also question the wisdom of losing a mil dice before Karachi that could instead be working on something like more railgun munitions
Ehh, I can see it. The two munitions projects we definitely have are Railgun Munitions and Ultralight Glide Munitions. Both are useful for Karachi. If we found the Department of Munitions, then immediately research UGM, we're going to be rocking at least 100 Progress on projects useful for Karachi. It's not my favorite thing to do this turn, but I can see the logic.

Also, I'm pretty sure that when it comes to Karachi, either it'll work or it won't. Us spending one more or less Military die a little more or less optimally just isn't gonna make much of a difference.
 
If we're willing to accept for a short time not being able to just keep pouring a giant river of Capital Goods into the stockpile, we can choose to do a couple more AEVAs. We'll be able to turn the river back on in a year or two, anyway, with Aberdeen and North Boston and possibly if we're lucky Nuuk Phase 4.

But that's an "if," and there's a price.
Personally I'd be upset at the opportunity costs of not doing more Service projects. They might not mean much in terms of pure Numbers Go Up, but there's good stuff coming.
On a side note, Military isn't really a perfect candidate for an AEVA. It's nice, but not great. This is because Military has relatively few big long megaprojects, but lots and lots of little mini-projects where most of the time the +3 on a die roll just does nothing at all.
I think +3 is on the edge of useful even on small projects, where is could make at least a small difference on if a project finishes or not.

But as for big projects? Well, we've got those Zone Armor Factories, the Wingmen aren't all that small either, and those new rifles need lots of progress. Plus there's just that the Military Department has eight dice. Plus 24 points a turn is very attractive, even if it's not all on the same project.

Still, I'd rather just do service projects instead of AEVAs.
 
As the new rifle is for the non zone armor troops i am not planning on building all factories that are available unless NOD starts to deploy a lot more of the Gana and other creations that are hard to kill with the current rifle.
 
As the new rifle is for the non zone armor troops i am not planning on building all factories that are available unless NOD starts to deploy a lot more of the Gana and other creations that are hard to kill with the current rifle.
Didn't researching the GD-3 also give us a version for armored troops?
The issuing of the GD-3 certification at a time when many infantry are expecting to move into power armor creates a need for a power-armor sized weapon. The -M3 is exactly that weapon, being encased and ruggedized for use by power armor, but retaining the same core mechanisms as it's smaller cousin. Where it is superior is sustained fire, ammo capacity, and rapid selection of alternate ammo.
 
I'm happy to squeeze in the housing refits whenever I feel like we have Infrastructure dice to spare. I just don't consider them to be a top priority activity.

We've already done so much to lower the population that's in 'low quality' housing that the vast majority of the people who live there probably have some degree of choice, or are well content to accept the location in exchange for minimal rent and good location, or something. It's not an irrelevant problem, it's still connected to quality of life, but if I had to put it on my list of priorities it'd be like #3 or #4.

And when we get a refugee wave, they're going to be in Low Quality Housing for a while whether we like it or not, because we can't build surplus HQ Housing at any useful rate in the foreseeable future.

Again, to be clear, I still want to do it and fully intend to do it by the end of the Plan. It's just not at the top of my list of things to do compared to stuff like "more forts to harden the border now that Nod's had long enough to recover that they might be capable of more meaningful raids"
The turn before the Regency War in Q1 2060, we had 17 pop in LQ housing. At the end of this turn, we're going to be at 16 pop in LQ housing. So for the last three years we've basically circled back to where we were before. We have not actually moved ahead, and by itself it will take the Bureau of Arcologies four years to fulfill current demand.

Moreover, Housing has been a constant problem since the beginning if the quest. It would be really good to finally get ahead of it.
 
Last edited:
Ehh, I can see it. The two munitions projects we definitely have are Railgun Munitions and Ultralight Glide Munitions. Both are useful for Karachi. If we found the Department of Munitions, then immediately research UGM, we're going to be rocking at least 100 Progress on projects useful for Karachi. It's not my favorite thing to do this turn, but I can see the logic.

Also, I'm pretty sure that when it comes to Karachi, either it'll work or it won't. Us spending one more or less Military die a little more or less optimally just isn't gonna make much of a difference.
I'd rather put dice into Railgun Munitions than do the DoM right now. I think more alternative railguns munitions is far more useful than glide munitions so I'd rather have the extra progress on Railgun Munitions than 50 on each
 
Also, I'm pretty sure that when it comes to Karachi, either it'll work or it won't. Us spending one more or less Military die a little more or less optimally just isn't gonna make much of a difference.
Is the stress over Karachi because of the Regency War? By the time that rolls around, unless something really out of the blue happens, we should be in fine shape without any special prioritization.
Thinking on it, one project that might be worth expediting is the Infernium Laser Refits, given that Krukov might have sent the fourth Varyag-class he built south to India (Q3 2061 results).
In Russia, a fourth Varyag has been confirmed, with two of the class being spotted near Siberian airspace, and another being spotted by the Himalayan Blue Zone, headed south towards India. While all three are currently under disruption fields, it does indicate that despite the capture of the Bogatyr, the Brotherhood retains confidence in the class and is likely to continue some level of production.
But really, I'm more worried about the diplomatic repercussions from Karachi, than military issues.

As regards AEVAs, I consider the Bureaucracy dice-modification projects much more important, once we finish the Services AEVA.
 
As a reminder one of our plan goals is AEVA in Services. There are narrative gains for doing AEVA in any of the departments and we won't know them until we do them, but for Orbital:

[ ] Advanced Electronic Video Assistant Deployment
The Advanced EVA system will need substantial pools of computer supplies for deployment, but should substantially improve the overall output of the Initiative. It will also require significant assistance from the field, which makes it somewhat problematic for immediate deployment beyond the need for capital goods.
-[ ] Orbital (Progress 280/200: 20 resources per die) (+3 to field dice) (-4 Capital Goods, -3 Energy) (Locks 1 field die until project is complete) [47, 85, 55]

The AEVA units dispatched to the orbitals have been assigned in a wide variety of roles, most prominently, traffic control. Axiomatically, hitting things in space is hard, and in most of space, that is distinctly accurate. For example, even with all of the mass being shuttled back and forth between the Earth's orbitals and the Moon's ground side mining stations, it averages out to being just a small handful of atoms more per cubic meter. However, looking at a smaller space, things become significantly more challenging.

Take a hundred kilometer radius around GDSS Enterprise for example. Navigation is a challenge, between bringing shuttles in from Earth with spare parts, bringing Lunar shuttles in with raw ore, bringing personnel shuttles in from the other stations, maintenance shuttles coming in from doing work on one satellite or another, and then giving all of them routes out as well. This is a complicated dance of thrust vectors, acceleration profiles, and safety margins, with a trio of AEVAs as its conductors. Named Katherine, Mary, and Dorothy, they operate as a team, Katherine managing approaching craft. Mary the docking craft and the near Enterprise vicinity, and Dorothy handling departures. There are other counterparts, with the Moon having one AEVA to manage landing pads, as well as Philadelphia having its own trio. Beyond running traffic control, EVAs have been assigned to hundreds of other roles, ranging from assisting researchers, to running much of the back end calculation work, many named after the human calculators that first put men into space.

It's better space navigation and math. So much math. If you've never played a six degree shooter: Autodocking is one of the most important Edit: features in any of them and we have the beginnings of that with the AEVA Orbital.

Edit: features not feature.
 
I personally prefer to look at the proportion of the population in HQ vs LQ housing, but absolute numbers are also important.

Since we're no longer receiving refugees, I don't find it that critical to build more HQ housing at this point in time. I'd go Chicago>Logistics>Fortress Towns>HQ Housing>CRP.

I'm also hoping that our Acrologies Bureau will be upgraded by the full rollout of Structural Alloys, but we'll see if that pans out at all.
 
Personally I'd be upset at the opportunity costs of not doing more Service projects. They might not mean much in terms of pure Numbers Go Up, but there's good stuff coming.
Well yeah, but then you have to balance whether any given Service project is as much goodness as any given AEVA. Or rather, is so much more that the opportunity cost is a problem.

While we're at it, I'm not saying +3's are useless. What I'm saying is that they're proportionately a good deal more useful in fields where they have time to accrue on large projects. The higher the proportion of dice in a field that are spent on big rollover projects, and the more often you feel comfortable slow-walking a project to completion with minimum dice wastage, the more effective the AEVA is. It's not nothing and not irrelevant in any case, but the more, the better.

I'm saying that pattern holds, so saying "hey, +3 on the Military dice ain't nothing" isn't really disagreement with me.

The turn before the Regency War in Q1 2060, we had 17 pop in LQ housing. At the end of this turn, we're going to be at 16 pop in LQ housing. So for the last three years we've basically circled back to where we were before. We have not actually moved ahead, and by itself it will take the Bureau of Arcologies four years to fulfill current demand.
Yes. But we've made no net progress because we integrated something like 100 million new citizens in those four years, an almost unprecedented level of population growth in all of recorded history.

I consider managing to handle that without the housing situation getting actively worse to be a major achievement, and I feel that we are now back in the same position we would have been in circa 2060 if the Regency War had never happened: That finishing off the demand for more Housing is a desirable, worthwhile thing, a good thing that we should fully intend to accomplish... but that it's not a burning urgent matter that needs, specifically, to be tackled right this minute as opposed to 6-12 months from now, as long as we don't dawdle indefinitely.

I have no intention of letting it dawdle indefinitely, but neither will I angst about how callous we're being if we don't do anything about it right away. Not when we're definitely doing other things to improve people's quality of life literally every turn too.

Moreover, Housing has been a constant problem since the beginning if the quest. It would be really good to finally get ahead of it.
I'm not saying it wouldn't be good, but a lot of other things would be good too.

I'd rather put dice into Railgun Munitions than do the DoM right now. I think more alternative railguns munitions is far more useful than glide munitions so I'd rather have the extra progress on Railgun Munitions than 50 on each
Glide munitions are actually really great for the Air Force, because they make it a lot easier to engage Nod defenses with standoff attacks from outside their air defense's range.

Is the stress over Karachi because of the Regency War? By the time that rolls around, unless something really out of the blue happens, we should be in fine shape without any special prioritization.
Thinking on it, one project that might be worth expediting is the Infernium Laser Refits, given that Krukov might have sent the fourth Varyag-class he built south to India (Q3 2061 results).
Well, if the Bannerjees deploy an aerial battleship against us (unlikely if they only have one, and I doubt they can get a bunch of their own built and worked up in just a year), we may finally get a chance to see those plasma missiles in their intended design role. I would certainly hope the military would stock up the Karachi invasion forces with a disproportionate share of the best kit GDI has.

But really, I'm more worried about the diplomatic repercussions from Karachi, than military issues.
You're not wrong. Anyway, I'm reasonably confident we'll be fine. My main focus is taking the projects I already wanted to do anyway, and trying to get the specific few of them that can be done in time to have some modest impact on Karachi done in time, then return to doing all the other stuff on the same list.

As regards AEVAs, I consider the Bureaucracy dice-modification projects much more important, once we finish the Services AEVA.
I am not at all sure about this, myself, but am open to statistical arguments.

+3 per die ain't chicken feed.
 
I am not at all sure about this, myself, but am open to statistical arguments.

Just the Predictive Modeling Management if you ask me.

Based on Anydice, the mean of 4d50 is 1.0 greater than 2d100, and it increases with the more dice added in: 6d50 mean is 1.5 greater than 3d100, 8d50 is 2.0 more than 4d100, etc. Yeah, by itself not as much compared to AEVAs, but the important part is that there's approximately 30% less deviation.

What does that mean? The probability of rolling at most 50 on 2d100 is 12.25%. The same chance on 4.50% is 3.68%. Now consider when we jump up the dice a bit. The odds of rolling 100 at most on 4d100 is 3.92%. The same chance on 8d50 is 0.47%.

So yeah, the odds of the highest roll totals shrink a bit as well, but given that we're drawing in big discounts from the Alloy Foundries and applying hefty bonuses per die, I think we benefit more from eliminating the shitty bad roll possibilities, and I'm still reminded about what the nat 1 did to the tidal wave power system.
 
I am not at all sure about this, myself, but am open to statistical arguments.

+3 per die ain't chicken feed.
Predictive Modeling Management (shift to 2d50) is effectively a +.5 to all dice, makes planning more predictable, and reduces critfails by a variable amount: (assuming I'm getting my mathing correct)
1 "die" : from 1% to .04%
2 "dice": from 1.98% to .23%
3 "dice": from 2.97% to .57%
4 "dice": from 3.96% to (anydice broke at this point, but IIRC we mathed it out a long time ago and the crossover point is just over 10 "dice" to get critfails more probable with PMM)

Edit: and, ninja'd, but I feel the math is still worthwhile
 
Well, I don't like critfails either, but I'm not sure how much reducing them pays off compared to other things.

And honestly, I'd rate +0.5 to all dice as being little or no better than +3 to the dice in a selected important field once, let alone 2-3 times (which we could do, since the Capital Goods allotment for predictive modeling would fund multiple AEVAs)
 
Predictive Modeling Management has more advantages:
It takes only a single bureaucracy die vs multiple service dice for AEVA's
The fact that it rolls closer to 50 on average will make planning easier as there are less high/low rolls.
anydice.com

AnyDice

AnyDice is an advanced dice probability calculator, available online. It is created with roleplaying games in mind.
Shows this if you select graph you see the odds of rolling any number with 1D100 and 2D50
with a 1D100 all numbers have a 1% chance
with a 2D50 the odds of rolling 50 is 2% and any number between 26 and 76 has a chance about 1%, and anything outside that less then 1%

We are also only a few turns away from our next capital goods boost as:
Chicago Planned City (Phase 5) 52/1050 10 dice 200R 5%(+500 Tiberium Processing Capacity, +10 Consumer Goods, +12 Capital Goods)
Reykjavik Myomer Macrospinner (Phase 5) 50/1220 13 dice 260R 3%(+8 Capital Goods, +4 Energy) (Reduces cost of mech and zone armor projects)
 
Personally, I don't feel like planning has been made particularly difficult by rolling d100s. We can't perfectly predict when a project will complete, sure, but it's never been that hard to allocate dice.
 
I am not at all sure about this, myself, but am open to statistical arguments.

+3 per die ain't chicken feed.
Well, I don't like critfails either, but I'm not sure how much reducing them pays off compared to other things.
You can't compare (massively) reducing the occurrence of critfails to having a bigger die bonus. It's apples to oranges. Critfails give all kinds of penalties, including completely narrative ones, so there's no way to model their impact statistically.

But besides that, the biggest effect of Predictive Modeling Management isn't less critfails, or the effective +0.5 die bonus. It's that it makes planning easier since 2d50s are more predictable than 1d100. By narrowing the variance, we won't have to as often worry about using too many or too few dice to finish a project, and will be able to more reliably guarantee a project finishes when we want it to. For example, with a +29 die bonus:

-[] Before Example 0/1000 10 dice 2%, 11 dice 13%, 12 dice 38%, 13 dice 68%, 14 dice 88%, 15 dice 97%
-[] After Example 0/1000 11 dice 6%, 12 dice 37%, 13 dice 77%, 14 dice 96%
 
So, in terms of logistics, what is more important?
More rails to connect to the red zones for our next round of border offensives?
Or suborbital shuttles, to prepare the Himalayas for the Operation That Must Not Be Named?
 
So, in terms of logistics, what is more important?
More rails to connect to the red zones for our next round of border offensives?
Or suborbital shuttles, to prepare the Himalayas for the Operation That Must Not Be Named?
If I had to pick I'd probably say another phase of rails as that would help with red zones, connect all those apartment cities we've built, and help with the military supply lines.

But the shuttles are also important and provide a larger bonus. They just don't have as explicit impacts listed like rails.
 
I Guess by making shuttles we are freeing a lot of Trains for goods transport so it might be best to go with Shuttles before trains
 
Back
Top