if we can get the Conversions Carriers and Frigates in the water, I still believe Karachi is doable. Not easy, but entirely within our power.
Even then, I am of the opinion that we should be looking at dropping Karachi for the near future.
The fundamental issue is that we frankly do not have enough escort power and even converted carriers will not be enough to actually push the balance sufficiently in our favor to enable a Karachi operation.
The converted carriers can only enable Karachi if and ONLY IF we actually have the forces to displace to the operation.
Our cruisers are still needed for various roles(and not that easily reallocated, given that we are on the lower end of acceptable counts there), hydrofoils are limited in potential, carrier and battleships being rare for a long time coming, and both expendable relatively recent frigates/destroyers and actual CVs being nonexistent.
Get both escort carriers and frigate counts(not shipyards but actual ship counts) over the amount needed to keep the convoys generally harassment free(by themselves without converted carriers) and then we can think about Karachi again.
 
Overall, that went very well. The naval game was mixed, but if we can get the Conversions Carriers and Frigates in the water, I still believe Karachi is doable. Not easy, but entirely within our power.

That said, I also believe we should get the Wingman Firehawk's up first. Their attrition is much worse then the navy. I hate to say it, but cargo ships are a lot more replaceable then pilots.

In this quarter's operations these small-scale raiders have been overwhelmingly successful, in many cases as a result of the Initiative not being able to supply nearly enough escorts. While more risky convoys – such as those to Australia and New Zealand, or between South America and West Africa – always have a GDI naval presence, others often have to make do. For example, the North Atlantic route is patrolled and ties down about ten modern warships at any given time, but it is still routinely raided – with submarines using the arctic ice shelf or icebergs for cover until they can break out and do damage before vanishing. Elsewhere, strikes have been daring and aggressive, with boarding parties being a common feature of operations where the Initiative has not been able to provide escort. So far these operations have not reached a point where most day-to-day operations are substantially impacted, but losses are high and unsustainable. While not an immediate choke on the Initiative's ability to wage large-scale offensives, if these rates of loss are maintained (let alone increase) the ability for the Initiative to supply long-range logistical support will begin to rapidly decline.

If we devote a huge portion of our Navy to Karachi, our losses will go from eventually unsustainable to immediately disastrous.

Whether or not we end up going to Karachi, we are not going to Karachi on schedule. It is not within our power to do so. Later, when our Navy is not strained to the breaking point, we can have a discussion about whether we should go to Karachi.
 
Well, what do we have to do to meet our Karachi commitment? 3 tiers? We can do that in two turns no problem.

How many turns left till the last 2 turns of the plan?
 
Sticking with Erewhon in Orbital, it being that without Erewhon we have 2 spare dice after plan commitments, I think we should put his die on the plan commitments as we need the free dice elsewhere and with the equivalent of 6 AA dice over 6 turns, thats 303 progress on average for the remainder of the plan, or something like 4 normal dice. That could prove critical especially in the event of poor rolls. So I think we should but his die on the Lunar mines with the rest of our Orbital dice and make some extra progress on our commitments.

Well, what do we have to do to meet our Karachi commitment? 3 tiers? We can do that in two turns no problem.

How many turns left till the last 2 turns of the plan?

It is 4 Phases to meet the commitment, which can be done in one turn with all the dice from two of Infrastructure, Tiberium, and Free dice categories (average of 11-12 dice needed). There are four more turns between now and the second to last turn of the plan, Q3 2060, Q4 2060, Q1 2061, and Q2 2061.
 
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It is 4 Phases to meet the commitment, which can be done in one turn with all the dice from two of Infrastructure, Tiberium, and Free dice categories. There are four more turns between now and the second to last turn of the plan, Q3 2060, Q4 2060, Q1 2061, and Q2 2061.
Thanks very much.

Oof. 4 phases. That's harder.

The carrier conversions and the first couple batches of frigates should be around in four turns I think.

Depending on the impact they have Karachi could be viable by then. Especially since more frigates will be coming and escort carriers should start showing up soon after that as well.

There might be a couple rough turns in the middle where logistics might suffer but orbital deliveries and any other new tech will probably mitigate that somewhat. Especially with all the logistics stuff we've done these last few (and probably next couple of) turns as well.
 
Overall, that went very well. The naval game was mixed, but if we can get the Conversions Carriers and Frigates in the water, I still believe Karachi is doable. Not easy, but entirely within our power.

That said, I also believe we should get the Wingman Firehawk's up first. Their attrition is much worse then the navy. I hate to say it, but cargo ships are a lot more replaceable then pilots.

Well, what do we have to do to meet our Karachi commitment? 3 tiers? We can do that in two turns no problem.

How many turns left till the last 2 turns of the plan?

It is 4 Phases to meet the commitment, which can be done in one turn with all the dice from two of Infrastructure, Tiberium, and Free dice categories (average of 11-12 dice needed). There are four more turns between now and the second to last turn of the plan, Q3 2060, Q4 2060, Q1 2061, and Q2 2061.

Thanks very much.

Oof. 4 phases. That's harder.

The carrier conversions and the first couple batches of frigates should be around in four turns I think.

Depending on the impact they have Karachi could be viable by then. Especially since more frigates will be coming and escort carriers should start showing up soon after that as well.

There might be a couple rough turns in the middle where logistics might suffer but orbital deliveries and any other new tech will probably mitigate that somewhat. Especially with all the logistics stuff we've done these last few (and probably next couple of) turns as well.

Let me explain the problem.

The problem is lead time. That is to say, no matter if we complete all the frigate and CVE yards next turn, it will take at least a year for their first batches of ships to hit the seas and start operations. It will take multiple years for them to construct their full load of ships, generally 3 batches of ships, so think close to 3 years for the frigates, close to 6 years for the CVEs if they take a long time to build.


And as we won't be able to build all the frigate and CVE yards in a single turn, there is no way we can have Karachi this plan anymore, unless we are alright with GDI supply lines getting butchered and quite possibly the Karachi fleet getting absolutely savaged by Bintang due to being locked in place. Do not count on a Taffy 3 saving the landing ships this time. In fact, most likely we couldn't ever afford Karachi this plan unless we started building the shipyards in 2058 and completed the majority of them no later than Q12059.
 
Thanks very much.

Oof. 4 phases. That's harder.

The carrier conversions and the first couple batches of frigates should be around in four turns I think.

Depending on the impact they have Karachi could be viable by then. Especially since more frigates will be coming and escort carriers should start showing up soon after that as well.

There might be a couple rough turns in the middle where logistics might suffer but orbital deliveries and any other new tech will probably mitigate that somewhat. Especially with all the logistics stuff we've done these last few (and probably next couple of) turns as well.

If we just look at raw numbers we can still do Karachi, pretty easily.
Our problem is the story behind the math.
We already wanted to do Karachi in one turn because we expected that going less than all in would result in a huge battle, because the indian warlords would try to destroy this beach head, doing it in one turn was supposed to surprise them and get a fortress before they realize what is happening.
Now we realize that doing Karachi now would basically require most of our Navy, leaving a lot of our other convoys unprotected. This could easily result in huge losses to our fleet, shipping and/or logistics.
 
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If we just look at raw numbers we can still do Karachi, pretty easily.
Our problem is the story behind the math.
We already wanted to do Karachi in one turn because we expected that going less than all in would result in a huge battle, because the indian warlords would try to destroy this beach head, doing it in one turn was supposed to surprise them and get a fortress before they realize what is happening.
Now we realize that doing Karachi now would basically require most of our Navy, leaving a lot of our other convoys unprotected. This could easily result in huge losses to our fleet, shipping and/or logistics.
Yes, what people are saying isn't "we cannot do Karachi this plan at all", it's "we cannot do Karachi this plan, without major sacrifices and heavy losses". Because the assumption is that we don't want to stick our hand into a meatgrinder when we can avoid it.

Also, the Ular-class seems to be a very good reason to do Heavy Support Lasers this turn or the next, so that our frigates will roll out with improved point defense.
I hope Erewhon's treatment gets increasingly better because I don't want to see him become like the Allied Mastercomputer.
Given I used a reroll to ensure Erewhon didn't lose Stability, and we've been dedicating some nerds (in the form of taking a -2 to Services rolls) towards support, there's not much we can do barring pushing for Isolinear factories. And no reason in or out-of-quest to suggest that we are treating Erewhon badly.
 
it's "we cannot do Karachi this plan, without major sacrifices and heavy losses"
That is overstating the issue.
It's "we cannot do Karachi this plan, while also using the Navy to protect our shipping lanes when we storm the Arabian Sea."
And even that may be incorrect if we invest a lot into the Navy this coming turn.
We have a year and a half left in this Plan. That is enough to get the Carrier Conversions having an impact, and for Frigates to start launching.

Also:
Three phases of Suborbital Shuttles only needs 8-9 dice.
We can boost our reserves of Capitol Goods and Food.
Do we really need to assume that economy can't cope without naval shipping for a turn or two?
 
Well, what do we have to do to meet our Karachi commitment? 3 tiers? We can do that in two turns no problem.

How many turns left till the last 2 turns of the plan?
The problem isn't committing the dice.

The problem is that unlike most of our projects, Nod gets a vote in whether Karachi succeeds. Because if we invest 1500 Progress worth of dice rolls into it, but Nod invests a bazillion giant slavering landmonsters with laser eyes and batshit plasma cannon juggernauts and whatnot, then Nod just eats our project. To succeed in doing Karachi, we need not only to commit the requisite dice, but for the military situation to be good enough that the Indian Nod faction can't just beat the shit out of the entire project at will.

And in large part because the Navy hasn't been getting the hulls it wanted over the course of the 2050s, the military situation is too bad to support taking Karachi right now. Given that the naval situation isn't rapidly getting better, it is grossly over-optimistic to expect us to be able to finish Karachi in 2061. Again, the problem is not the dice, the problem is Nod blowing shit up.

That is overstating the issue.
It's "we cannot do Karachi this plan, while also using the Navy to protect our shipping lanes when we storm the Arabian Sea."
And even that may be incorrect if we invest a lot into the Navy this coming turn.
We have a year and a half left in this Plan. That is enough to get the Carrier Conversions having an impact, and for Frigates to start launching.
We've been explicitly told that if we don't get the ball rolling on Karachi until 2061Q4, we're already slipping/going back on our Karachi commitment, at which point we might as well renegotiate anyway.

Furthermore, the Navy not being available to protect our shipping lanes is inevitably going to hurt a lot.

Also:
Three phases of Suborbital Shuttles only needs 8-9 dice.
We can boost our reserves of Capitol Goods and Food.
Do we really need to assume that economy can't cope without naval shipping for a turn or two?
Yes. Huge chunks of our economy are built around shipping, including the ongoing military offensives, the entire operation of Nuuk, our ability to move products of some of our big global-scale megafactories, and so on. Suborbital shuttles are not a substitute for oceangoing ships in full, because they simply cannot carry the sheer bulk that a large freighter can. They help but they do not solve the problem at any remotely reasonable level of production and operation.
 
Do we really need to assume that economy can't cope without naval shipping for a turn or two?

It's not a question of 'can economy work for a turn or two'

The question you should be asking is. "What does a factory do when they don't get the critical computer chips they need for a month?" The answer being they have maybe a day or two, possibly up to a weeks worth stockpiled. Then for the rest of the month they have a bunch of mechs sitting around without any brains, targeting, locomotion driver or anything meaning all the fancy weapons on it has no trigger. Turning the entire thing into a multi million dollar paperweight.

GDI smart grenades without chips? Sure there's likely secondary methods of setting them off, or at worst they can go back a generation to 'regular' grenades that don't need electronic detonation. But say goodbye to the onboard computers that fly those grenades into the middle of a room of nod soldiers. Before you could just toss a grenade in the general direction of nod and have good odds of taking out an entire squad. Now that same throw lands the grenade on a patch of concrete metres from the target building and explodes harmlessly.

Repeat that for dozens, hundreds of factories. And it's not just chips. It's parts, chemicals, even people. Tiberium harvested in southern france has higher ratio's of potassium, leading to easier and cheaper refinement into a variety of chemicals which are then shipped to where they need to go, far cheaper and more efficiently than putting german tiberium through a longer, more complicated refinement process to make the same chemicals.

And it's not one month. It's 3 months or maybe 6. You're potentially talking thousands of factories worldwide suffering delays and shortages.

GDI is built on the back of globalized logistics. The world order that sees the remnants of dozens of european countries, african countries, north and south american cities and asian nations all pool resources and work together to produce goods at the lowest cost possible to build as much as possible. And you're talking about ripping out a lot or even most of that.

To give the faintest idea of what that's like. Britain IRL cut itself off from the EU economy, just the change in law leading to added checks. Just a minute or two per lorry. But with thousands of lorry's a day on the border that adds up to massive queues, delays, expenses, fruit and vegetables going off before reaching the intended destination. Knock on effects on the economy, and the losses of billions of dollars worth of trade and revenues. Businesses failed. People lost jobs. Containers piled up in some places unable to be moved. While in other places entire warehouses sat empty.

There's a reason the most successful nod warlords are targeting our shipping, railway junctions, docks and harbours. Attacking our logistics. It's the single best way they have to hurt us.

And, It's not just raw materials, parts, or finished goods. It's food too. People can't go Months without food.

And to a degree... Sure sea travel can be replaced, by planes, trains and trucks. But you'd need hundreds of planes, perhaps thousands to make up the shortfall in what you've lost from cargo ships. Something like one cargo ship for a few days along the coast turns into weeks for thousands of trucks.

Logistics is absolutely critical. History has proven this time and time again for thousands of years. And it's not just a matter of building alternatives. It's about having those alternatives already in place, ready, and even then any changes can send the entire system into chaos.
 
That is overstating the issue.
It's "we cannot do Karachi this plan, while also using the Navy to protect our shipping lanes when we storm the Arabian Sea."
And even that may be incorrect if we invest a lot into the Navy this coming turn.
We have a year and a half left in this Plan. That is enough to get the Carrier Conversions having an impact, and for Frigates to start launching.

Also:
Three phases of Suborbital Shuttles only needs 8-9 dice.
We can boost our reserves of Capitol Goods and Food.
Do we really need to assume that economy can't cope without naval shipping for a turn or two?

Okay, first, Carrier Conversions will have a very limited effect on freeing up carrier assets, especially with the losses and damage the navy has suffered throughout the conflict.
Second, we don't need a single delivery from all the frigate shipyards. The navy really needs all of them just to achieve an acceptable degree of escort capacity without a dependence on the heavy assets.


And yes, we absolutely need to assume that GDI will face a complete, catastrophic collapse if naval shipping is completely blocked for even 1 turn. Not because GDI is running JIT economies, but because of the knock on effects on the economy crippling its everything for years to come.
 
That is overstating the issue.
It's "we cannot do Karachi this plan, while also using the Navy to protect our shipping lanes when we storm the Arabian Sea."
And even that may be incorrect if we invest a lot into the Navy this coming turn.
We have a year and a half left in this Plan. That is enough to get the Carrier Conversions having an impact, and for Frigates to start launching.

Also:
Three phases of Suborbital Shuttles only needs 8-9 dice.
We can boost our reserves of Capitol Goods and Food.
Do we really need to assume that economy can't cope without naval shipping for a turn or two?
...Okay, let's talk scale. A Union shuttle carries 250 tonnes of material, and a Leopard carries 100 - our shuttles are a mix of these. A quick Google search suggests that an intercontinental suborbital flight would be in the realm of 60-100 minutes (we'll go with 60), and let's say it takes an hour to load or unload (optimistic to the point of absurdity, probably) and an hour of assorted 'wasted' time for taxiing and getting a flight plan and the like - so assuming a 4-hour turnaround time with no wastage and that the shuttle doesn't need to be checked over between launches, you could get 6 flights a day per shuttle, or 3 round-trips.

An old Panamax cargo ship (calling this the mid-level option - maybe GDI uses larger ships, maybe smaller) carries 65-80,000 tonnes. The convoy mentioned doing the New Zealand-Argentina run this past update was 50 ships, so low-balling it (50 ships * 65,000 each) gets us 3,250,000 tonnes of cargo, one way, on a single route. Averaging 24 knots (according to an infographic I'm looking at this is the high end of 'regular' cruising speed for a container ship), that's a 8 day-19-hour trip (let's round up to 9), and let's say a day on each end to load and unload (is that time accurate? who the fuck knows). So 11 days total.

3,250,000 tonnes / 250 (assuming Unions only) = 13,000 shuttle-loads to match the convoy.
13,000 / 11 days = 1,181.81 loads per day, spread over the 11-day turnaround for the convoy.
1181.81 / 3 loads one way = 394 shuttles (rounded up from 393.93 repeating).

So, with these admittedly highly arbitrary numbers established, to match oceanic shipping one way, along one route we need nearly 400 shuttles per day, all loading, launching, and unloading as quickly as possible, and then you have to factor in all of our other routes as well. This is also disregarding any other factors, like the difficulty of coordinating such a massive number of suborbital flights so nobody hits anyone else and dies in a fireball.

I'm not even sure we have 400 shuttles in total, let alone 400 Unions.
 
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...Okay, let's talk scale. A Union shuttle carries 250 tonnes of material, and a Leopard carries 100 - our shuttles are a mix of these. A quick Google search suggests that an intercontinental suborbital flight would be in the realm of 60-100 minutes (we'll go with 60), and let's say it takes an hour to load or unload (optimistic to the point of absurdity, probably) and an hour of assorted 'wasted' time for taxiing and getting a flight plan and the like - so assuming a 4-hour turnaround time with no wastage and that the shuttle doesn't need to be checked over between launches, you could get 6 flights a day per shuttle, or 3 round-trips.

An old Panamax cargo ship (calling this the mid-level option - maybe GDI uses larger ships, maybe smaller) carries 65-80,000 tonnes. The convoy mentioned doing the New Zealand-Argentina run this past update was 50 ships, so low-balling it (50 ships * 65,000 each) gets us 3,250,000 tonnes of cargo, one way, on a single route. Averaging 24 knots (according to an infographic I'm looking at this is the high end of 'regular' cruising speed for a container ship), that's a 8 day-19-hour trip (let's round up to 9), and let's say a day on each end to load and unload (is that time accurate? who the fuck knows). So 11 days total.

3,250,000 tonnes / 250 (assuming Unions only) = 13,000 shuttle-loads to match the convoy.
13,000 / 11 days = 1,181.81 loads per day, spread over the 11-day turnaround for the convoy.
1181.81 / 3 loads one way = 394 shuttles (rounded up from 393.93 repeating).

So, with these admittedly highly arbitrary numbers established, to match oceanic shipping one way, along one route we need nearly 400 shuttles, and then you have to factor in all of our other routes as well.

Correction, a Union carries 200 tons, a Leopard carries 180 tons.

Also, estimates from the Tib Stabilizer sprint IIRC noted that a shuttle needs a two month downtime to check its components after a trip, and that's the expedited version of the checks.

EDIT: Additionally, at the height of the Tib Stabilizer sprint, GDI was flying 22 launches per day, and that was noted to be a massive strain on launch infrastructure, to the point it actually ate a fusion launch die. As in, 'we cannot keep launching like this, because if we do that our space craft start falling apart in flight.
 
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Correction, a Union carries 200 tons, a Leopard carries 180 tons.

Also, estimates from the Tib Stabilizer sprint IIRC noted that a shuttle needs a two month downtime to check its components after a trip, and that's the expedited version of the checks.

That's also with a space trip. Space being empty, and with no threats. And they want to try and run them over potentially hostile territory, being shot at. To land in Karachi which would still probably only be a green zone with tib contamination, ion storms and so on.

Mind. Space is something where you want to check the thing is totally airtight and everything works perfect. There's possibly a bunch of leeway on the ground but even so. Look at planes. They get 1 hour in flight for every five on the ground. And assuming that ratio seems horrifyingly optimistic for our cutting edge space shuttles.

Don't get me wrong. Shuttles could help any logistics problem, and help fill in some gaps and make up the shortfall. But trying to replace ocean shipping with shuttles is using a bandaid for a sucking chest wound.
 
Correction, a Union carries 200 tons, a Leopard carries 180 tons.

Also, estimates from the Tib Stabilizer sprint IIRC noted that a shuttle needs a two month downtime to check its components after a trip, and that's the expedited version of the checks.

EDIT: Additionally, at the height of the Tib Stabilizer sprint, GDI was flying 22 launches per day, and that was noted to be a massive strain on launch infrastructure, to the point it actually ate a fusion launch die. As in, 'we cannot keep launching like this, because if we do that our space craft start falling apart in flight.
Ah, thank you. Adjusting my Total Bullshit Calculation then, that gets me:

(3,250,000 / 200) / 11 = 1478 (rounded up) Unions launching between South America and Oceania, every day, for 11 days.

That's a total of 16,258 launches, for one logistics route, in one direction. Totally realistic, I'm sure you all can agree!
 
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To land in Karachi which would still probably only be a green zone with tib contamination, ion storms and so on.

I don't think anyone has ever suggested using orbital assets to deliver stuff to Karachi. That's insane.

The main talks about it is easing the logistics crunch in general in some small way if shipping starts to suffer and delivering supplies to the Himalaya blue zone in particular.
 
I don't think anyone has ever suggested using orbital assets to deliver stuff to Karachi. That's insane.

The main talks about it is easing the logistics crunch in general in some small way if shipping starts to suffer and delivering supplies to the Himalaya blue zone in particular.

If you'll look up 1 post from yours, you'll know why that is not possible.
 
If it weren't for Karachi hanging over our heads I would be quite thrilled.

I don't particularly want to renegotiate but it doesn't seem like it's going to be any more achievable unless something dramatic happens in our favor in some navel battles.
Karachi isn't happening people. We are so overstretched we risked a super expensive battleship with half of it's armament already disabled. We are losing irreplaceable hulls trying to escort convoys. The Navy can talk about not needing so many battleships, that doesn't mean these ones aren't supposed to last us

Our navy is a nearly spent force. Convoy raiding is increasingly amping up while our naval abilities are currently degrading, concentrating our navy to escort and support a naval invasion significantly more involved than D-Day and Operation Overlord is literally asking Bintang to do us a favor and gut what little capacity we have to escort ships. It will take several waves of escorts for our navy to really get this under control, and all those gains would be thrown to the winds if all these new builds are committed to holding the Indian Ocean wide.
At the same time, the point that we'd be totally screwed by Nod naval raiding hitting us all over the world while we did that, even if it went okay in the Arabian Sea in particular... So I don't disagree with the conclusion as such.
Congratulations, we've crippled GDI patrols everywhere to force an invasion- an invasion Bintang isn't obligated to contest.... and then she can proceed to raid the massive convoys needed to keep the hundreds of thousands of men we just sent into the unknown alive forcing us to cede the seas everywhere... or let them get encircled and cut off from supply.

For Karachi to be a success, we don't need to win the sea battle to land forces, we need to win pretty much every single battle in the Indian Ocean to keep this vital supply line open. Tell me we can do that with sacrificing our straining logistics elsewhere and I'd call you a liar. Our logistics are being pushed by the commitments we have everywhere, adding more commitments elsewhere is only going to hurt our greatest constraint. I don't even care anymore if the expert throws a fit, this is so obviously beyond our current means Karachi is borderline criminal.
 
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At this point save the arguing. Quick show of hands. two options. A All in for Karachi. B, renegotiate Karachi.

Who wants maximum investment into navy and logistics to try and push through karachi. And we start NOW With MAXIMUM navy. MAXIMUM shuttle. And MAXIMUM logistics. To force MAXIMUM INFRA/TIB on Karachi itself.

and Who wants to hold our hands in the Air. Sorry. Massive global war. Can't swing Karachi. Negotiating in good faith, is there anything else we can offer you instead. Find out what that is and complete that?

I'll be honest. My vote is A, because I want to do Karachi. I want to try it.


But we absolutely cannot half-ass it. And either way, further delays and dithering will cost us no matter what we do. So, decision now, and we can stick with it.

Nothing official. Just seeing where the thread feeling is at. because rather than going turn by turn, here is something where we're going to need a concrete plan, and we're going to have to commit.
 
If you'll look up 1 post from yours, you'll know why that is not possible.
Sigh...

I didn't say replace shipping completely. Or even one route of shipping.

I said
The main talks about it is easing the logistics crunch in general in some small way if shipping starts to suffer and delivering supplies to the Himalaya blue zone in particular.

That is completely achievable.

Himalaya needs some replacement parts, they can drop them off. If we absolutely need to get some computer chips to a factory to continue producing stuff we can do that.

Not replacing shipping. But getting some amount of key supplies somewhere.
 
If people are going to pretend that stockpiling Capitol Goods isn't a thing, despite the specific stat for it, don't quote me saying we can do it and ignore it.

Edit: Sorry, this is overly harsh.
My mother is in hospital, and I'm feeling stressed and sick.
 
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