We have two kinds of projects we really, really want before the end of the year: High-value projects, and mandatory Plan Goals. Your strategy is to try to finish all Plan Goals in Q3, then do high-value projects in Q4. My plan splits things up, aiming to still get as-close-to-certain-as-possible to complete our Plan Goals in Q4
while also completing what high-value projects we can fit in at the same time. To not wait until Q4 to do said high-value projects. (Many of these are time-sensitive and/or produce better results if given time to wind up, like Tendrils, Ranching Romes, Zone Armor, etc.) You have continually been worrying about how tight our Plan Goals are, that we might fail them, and that my plan will put us at more risk of failure...
But you're working towards a drastically different goal than I am. You aim to finish Plan Goals in Q3. When we've been told that to Parliment, there is no difference between finishing a Plan Goal in Q3 and finishing it at the last day in the last hour of Q4. So yes, I'll admit that
my Plan makes it less likely we'll finish all of our Plan Goals in Q3. I can't say I particularly forsee parliment getting upset at us for doing so.
Still, let's compare dice on Plan Goals between our two plans. (Disregarding the Consumer Goods requirement, as gaining 6 points there is practically unavoidable.)
Plan Steak and Tendrils
- Industrial Laser 4 dice
- Isolinear 1 die
- Strategic Food Stockpile 1 die
- Extra Large Food Stockpiles 1 Erewhon die
- GDSS Enterprise 7 dice
- Lunar Rare Metals 1 die
- URLS 2 dice
- Escort Carrier 3 dice
- Mastodon 1 die
- Total: 21 dice.
Plan Attempting To Be Done By October
- Industrial Laser 4 dice
- Isolinear 1 die
- Strategic Food Stockpile 3 dice
- Extra Large Food Stockpiles 1 Erewhon die
- GDSS Enterprise 7 dice
- Lunar Rare Metals 1 die
- OSRCT 3 dice
- URLS 2 dice
- Escort Carrier 3 dice
- Mastodon 1 die
- Total: 26 dice
So in the aspect of how our plans differ that you argue is most important, you rPlan spends 5 more dice than mine does. That 5 dice may seem like a lot. But if we break it down by section:
Heavy Industry: 5 dice both.
Agriculture: 2 dice Steak, 4 dice October.
Orbital: 8 dice both.
Military: 6 dice Steak, 9 dice October.
It's a meaningful difference in dice, but not particularly the drastic difference you make it out to be. Especially if you're willing to use Q4's dice to finish, rather than trying to squeeze everything into Q3.
The problem is that "just use the Q4 dice to finish" is risky, because we can't accept a 50% chance or whatever of a project completing.
If
OSRCT Phase 4 is still 200 points from completion or whatever when Q4 starts, that's a situation where we can't just throw 2-3 Military dice at it and call it a day. We end up needing to throw at least four.
So being behindhand in fulfilling plan targets
now means that six months from now we're going "oh shit" and having to cram extra dice on those projects to be confident of completion... Which means that
on net we have less dice to spent
total on high-value stuff.
What I'm saying is that I want us to make sure the actual "do our jobs" stuff is well in hand and we can approach it in a calm, confident manner in the closing six months of the Plan, rather than having to run around in circles stressing about how to be sure of finishing things at the last minute.
...
I will also note that the areas where you're spending less dice than me are specifically on the Plan commitment categories that we have the least confidence in completing.
Our remaining
challenging Plan commitments fall into three areas: Agriculture (Stored Food), Orbital (
Enterprise) and Military (various). Heavy Industry are basically in the bag at this point; we have far more dice than we need to complete them, even without Free dice. The targets in Tiberium (Processing cap) are trivial to fulfill, and anything else will be done as a side-effect of normal operations at this point. But Orbital, Military, and Agriculture are actually coming down to the wire- those are the areas where, for various reasons, we don't have a buffer left. No wiggle room.
So we need to focus on Orbital, Military, and Agriculture.
...
In Orbital our plans are identical. Fair enough.
In Military, well, we've discussed this. I'm spending three more dice on Plan commitments than you now. You're going to have to spend those three dice at some later time, and if you spend them in Q4, it's very likely that they'll balloon to 4-5 dice unless you're prepared to court just straight-up falling short of a Plan target.
In Agriculture, it's the same thing, only the difference is two dice instead of three and there's less risk because you'll only have
ONE project to slam out a ton of (granaries) instead of two, three, or even four.
I think putting off those Military and Agriculture Plan goals to the last minute will have consequences. More below.
I... know?
I was one of the first people voting for it.
I truly hope the October plan wins. I'd rather get the goals done and use freed up dice later than use dice for other stuff now and hope we get goals done later.
Sorry, but I'm trying to be outspoken about the reasons I favor my plan, and I was using your comments (which I sympathize with) as a launchpad.
[goes back to drafting one or more tentative variant plans for what happens if each of the three front-runners wins, assuming nothing
too surprising in the turn results...]
...I really am convinced we're going to
have to do one of the following if
Steak and Tendrils wins:
1) Do E-CRP up through Phase 1.
2) Forget any confidence in getting a Zone Armor rollout in 2061.
3) Pick a Plan target to fail- either Stored Food or one of the military ones, probably OSRCT.
I could be pessimistic, I could be missing something, but that's what it looks like. Because doing Phases 4, 5, and 6 of the storehouses
and doing 3+ dice of Zone Armor rollouts
and doing 9+ dice of OSRCT in the two remaining turns of gameplay after this one will put some pretty tight constraints on our Free dice budget.
Personally I'm gonna vote for E-CRP, even though I know a bunch of people won't like that.