I'm not opposed to us trying but there might be a couple problems that would make it very costly. First, the loyalist faction would probably be averse to losing independence and could cause negotiations to go poorly. We could have a rebelion, balkanization, or the creation of an adversarial political faction within the empire. Any of those outcomes would be extremely annoying to deal with in the long term.
I see where you're coming from but in my opinion so long as we're careful and clever those things are very unlikely to happen

Most of Maretonia's population are either former slaves who are only free because of us and would be significantly happier under any rule that didn't enslave them (and probably even more so as long as that rule didn't consist of the same people who had enslaved them), surviving nobles that we have in our pocket, people who have family that live in the Empire and those who are just grateful that the war is over and would accept just about any government that kept things stable and put food on the table
The second and more immediate concern is that if we make them a protectorate then we'll take the lion's share of the cost for reconstruction, our economy will take a huge hit from that.
Let's be honest between our history of charitable work, how bad a state Maretonia is in and our desire to not have a lawless state on our border we were probably going to pay for most, or at the very least a significant chunk, of the reconstruction

As for our economy, keep in mind that while the war cost us a lot of our stockpile we are still making a lot of money and have plenty of options for making more available to us, such as trade with the Emerald Isles and Equestria, producing more alcohol and the development of steamships and commercial airships
Making them a protactorate is definately the high-risk/high-reward option here. I'm only suggesting we negotiate for the northern abolitionist territory instead because I know most of us are going to want to help them either way and I don't want us to do it for nothing if people think going for another protectorate is too risky.
I get what you're saying but in my opinion dividing Maretonia will be even more controversial than just turning it into a protectorate not only because it will give the people who are anti-Empire a country to run but also because it makes the argument that we're just doing it to help stabilise and reconstruct the country look a lot less believable, because if that's the case then why are we only doing it for some of the country
We don't want territorial concessions (we have everything in that regard from Libertalia), and short of trade and economic influence I can think of nothing particular we need. The sooner we get them off gold, and onto paper money the better if Dragons are that much of a problem.
I don't know, territorial concession is pretty damn good

It's more land to mine, more resources to feed our economy, removes another competitor on the eastern coast and provides us with a much larger work force and citizenry, a not insignificant percentage of which are capable of magic
 
Puts on Nixon Mask

It is the firm belief of the Gryphus Empire that there is only one Maretonia

Royal Guard: You mean us right?
Abolitionists: You mean us right?

<Garrick stretches his wings> "Well I think I will just mosy along now..."

In all honesty what might work as a means of diplomatic leverage is something akin to our massive effort to rebuild the Crystal Empire, which... worked brilliantly. All we have to do is say that the Gryphus Empire is willing to fund rebuilding and infrastructure efforts through Maretonia, but the two groups MUST work together. If this means that the Abolitionists create a liberal democracy with the funds for the "Defense of Maretonia" just going straight to the Royal Guard so be it. Obviously there should be some safeguards but Maretonia they now realize is theirs to lose, and we can forge a peace, and there is a potential for compromise. The Royal Guard just has to accept that their "Sovereign" is the ponies of Maretonia... all of them... equally.

We don't want territorial concessions (we have everything in that regard from Libertalia), and short of trade and economic influence I can think of nothing particular we need. The sooner we get them off gold, and onto paper money the better if Dragons are that much of a problem.
I agree that we should give Maretonia a lot of aid, and make the abolitionists/royal guard agree with each other on how to use it. A lot of the money we give them will probably end up back in our own economy anyway, since they'll probably be buying most infrastructure/resources from us at least at first.

We can call the aid The Gawain Plan, like the irl Marshall Plan. It would be nice for Gawain to have another accomplishment to prevent him from feeling like he can't fill our boots.
 
We can call the aid The Gawain Plan, like the irl Marshall Plan. It would be nice for Gawain to have another accomplishment to prevent him from feeling like he can't fill our boots.

Regarding that , i actually hope to put Gawain in charge when it comes to reconstruction of Maretonia (regardless of it's future status). He is a crown heir and this should be a good experience for him, helping him build up a Land from ground up and using his diplomatic skills to foster good relationships between two populations is a great task for him to prove himself.

Not sure about calling bit Gawain plan though, imperial aid is sufficient for me.
 
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Given the general theme of this war and intervention, i'd rather go for either protectorate status with referendum after 20 years or full annexation. Just given the three factions involved, without one main ruler they entire Marathonion State will fracture into many different parts Ala Fall of Rome. If it is under a protectorate or full annexation we can do a lot more to keep everything together. I'd rather we not saddle our decedents with a maybe enemy or constant war on our borders. As someone will try to unite the two sates to "Rebuild the Empire", and they may want to attack us due to our causing the split.
 
I believe that whatever happens to Maretonia, we can't protectorate all of Maretonia.
At the end of the day, Maretonia as a whole has too many elements that won't accept any type of vassalization without a fight, even if it will only be passive or guerilla style resistance.

However, we de facto have influence with two out of three of the factions in charge of Maretonia: the Abolitionists because of our aid to them and being the role model they look up to, and White Star thanks to our turncoat noble managing to wrestle into control of the crumbling remnants.

This is not insubstantial. It means that we have soft power to influence the results of any referendum or negotiations, even excluding our hard power given to us by our army and resources.

But some of that power is covert. Our collaborator in charge of White Star can't kowtow to us or people will get suspiciouss.
We have a potential avenue we can use: by imflaming the fears of the surviving nobility regarding the Royal Guard, the dragons and plausibly Libertalia if we decide to risk alienating the island nation some - the raid is still in their memory. An intrique action should be possible that would skew noble opinion in White Star lands that they will need strong protection against raiding dragons or reprisal from the Royal Guard for their planned schemes regarding the former empress and the abolitionists who would be up for the blood of their oppressors.
Thus, capitulating to vassalige under the Gryphus throne can be sold as a defense against all of these powers. The griffons defeated Pegicles, dragons and a Ursa and within a year of their involvement the war is over. They can tell the Abolitionist rabble to back off from storming their estates, have enough strenght to scare off the Royal Guard and have an undamaged army to fight off dragon raids.

@Questor Do we get an intrigue action or two to influence the negotiations beforehand next turn? Is my logic sound on this matter?

We also have to consider the internal forces within the Abolitionist movement: some are people that will want a reformed Maretonia, still believing in their nation and only trying to overthrow the institution of slavery. Others have been born into slavery or been part of captured clans and tribes that will have no love for their overlord.

What I can see happening is a balkanization: up to two splinter states and Maretonia proper. One splinter of coastline cities under our aegis, second splinter of Abolitionists wanting to break away from Maretonia, this one likely controlling the northern land bordering the Crystal Protectorate - they might even want to be annexed by us directly.
Finally, Maretonia itself can go free... as long as the institution of slavery is abolished. Of course they would also be lacking in protection from Gryphus against the dragons, leaving them as the obvious targets for their raids, but that is realpolitik and if that state of affairs is too much, I would suggest immigration to the prospering land of Gryphus.

Those are my two cents on the matter.

There will indeed be options for you to influence the political landscape of Maretonia as it reshapes itself in the aftermath of the Civil War. There will be a period of time before any sort of negotiations can take place where the situation can be manipulated to the Empire's advantage.
 
Generally even if Maretonia maintains it's independence we should understand that it will be quite dependant on the Empire for some time.

Given its devastating civil war Maretonia is facing problems like starvation , refuge crisis, almost complete destruction of economy, bandits and probably monster's roaming the countryside, it's army being completely exhausted and probably unable to fight prolonged war without imperial help, plus possible Dragon raids. All of this was more, or less said in updates, heck one of the priorities for Maretonian government will probably be to secure food supply and defense treaty from the Empire so it may feed it's population and focus on internal threat's like bandits and monsters/rebuilding.

That is also not counting the fact that Maretonia doesn't have a government and will probably need imperial meditation to get one quickly given imperial influence over both abolitionists and Countess (nobility).

Which is why I said Gawain should play a large role in Maretonia, because simply said normal diplomatic relations won't be the case just because sheer dependance Maretonia has towards the empire.

At this point i actually believe that Protectorate status and security/benefits it brings are probably discussed and coveted among both nobility and the abolitionists, to some measure even royal guard.
 
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Well, basically all possible options have been presented by now. It's just a matter of see the costs, rewards and odds of success Questor will offer us.

I honestly expect we'll go for either protectorate, or help in exchange for some of the border territory, but I'm open to other options depending on the coming update.

Still, one fact is obvious: Maretonia will come out of this war very weak. They'll NEED support and protection from other countries while they recover.

There's two possible "threats" for them right now.

One is Canterbury. Right now Maretonia is at its weakest, if they wanted revenge and/or to expand, this is the time. They could even make an argument that they're doing to help them.

I don't think Canterbury is likely to be a big threat though. We have a decent relationship, and It's unlikely they'd risk it to attack someone we just helped.

Basically... we called dibs.

The second threat is, obviously, the dragons.

now, it's possible they won't do anything. After all the country is now weaker and offers less wealth, and they also didn't attack before (not that we know of, at least). But if they decide to attack in force, Maretonia just won't be able to defend itself alone.


This makes at least the protectorate option very attractive, simply because they wouldn't have to worry about external threats, as "protectorate" implies they'd be under the aegis of our army.

It's also good for us, because we recently expanded the army, and we kinda want to have a use for it to not waste the money. Having it defend the dragon border makes sense, as Maretonia is just not a threat right now, and we have no other real threats close to home.

The only other place the army could be useful would be along the borders of Storm Country, but that's foreign territory and we'd need to reach an agreement with yaks and Equestria about it.
 
There's also the possible issue of the Olenians, they are vikings after all
Nah, they're far enough that they shouldn't be a problem. Neighpon, emerald island, Libertalia and the minotaur republics are all closer to them.

I don't think a trip all the way to another continent just for a raid would be worth it, especially if they also risk our displeasure, or Neighpon's (they basically rule the sea)
 
They seem to be pulled in in our sphere like Liberia was. Hopefully we Annex, or vassalize them.
I don't think e have that much sway over them
They are not part of our sphere of influence, just some trade links. We are in no position to dictate even the lowest of policies on them.
I mean we can dictate some policies to them, we are responsible for them having any resources worth selling
Nah, they're far enough that they shouldn't be a problem. Neighpon, emerald island, Libertalia and the minotaur republics are all closer to them.

I don't think a trip all the way to another continent just for a raid would be worth it, especially if they also risk our displeasure, or Neighpon's (they basically rule the sea)
Keep in mind that they were willing to raid Neighpon before we intervened and it's not like the real vikings limited themselves to what was nearby
 
I don't think e have that much sway over them

I mean we can dictate some policies to them, we are responsible for them having any resources worth selling

Keep in mind that they were willing to raid Neighpon before we intervened and it's not like the real vikings limited themselves to what was nearby
Raid Neighpon??? I thought they were just raiding the Diamond Dogs and then the Sunrise Kingdom got pissed about it?
 
Again fair, though so far both of those wars have benefitted us so they're okay in my book

I'm personally very frustrated (at the Changlings) by those wars existing due to Changling interference.

At minimum, thousands of people died because of them.

Because the Changlings went and incited multiple wars, and caused a shit ton of people to die, their political currency (trust) as a government is basically zero or in negative values, and will remain so unless and until we basically overthrow their government with our own appointed governor(s).

Every time a War or a Tragedy happens, we are going to be forced to consider Changling involvement, because the current administration has proven to be willing to mess with internal politics of other countries to the point of causing a complete collapse of government.

With the conclusion of the Maretonian Affair, I think that while we work on preparing for Reconstruction: Gryphus Style, we should really push for progress on the Canterbury Conspiracy.
 
I'm personally very frustrated (at the Changlings) by those wars existing due to Changling interference.

At minimum, thousands of people died because of them.

Because the Changlings went and incited multiple wars, and caused a shit ton of people to die, their political currency (trust) as a government is basically zero or in negative values, and will remain so unless and until we basically overthrow their government with our own appointed governor(s).

Every time a War or a Tragedy happens, we are going to be forced to consider Changling involvement, because the current administration has proven to be willing to mess with internal politics of other countries to the point of causing a complete collapse of government.

With the conclusion of the Maretonian Affair, I think that while we work on preparing for Reconstruction: Gryphus Style, we should really push for progress on the Canterbury Conspiracy.

I completely agree with you, and we'll certainly have to work on that.

Generally speaking, while we have to admit that the CHangelings' actions have benefited us, we should always remember that the ends don't (usually) justify the means. (no rule is truly absolute)

And there's a pretty good reason for that: While we can argue (and it's true) that the changeling intervention helped us unify gryphus much sooner, and was at least a cause of the early removal of slavery compared to other possible timelines... what if they failed?

what if their agents were caught? What if Brochard won? What if we decided to not act in Maretonia and Pegicles won?


You can't use the ends to justify the means, because while the means are known, the ends are never assured. And if EVERYONE acts in accord to the saying, then most people will find themselves doing atrocities for no payoff.


This is in addition to all the "morality/ethics" problems, obviously.

So, basically... it worked out well those two times, but maybe next time the Changeling try something like this they'll, for example, cause the sisters to go Nightmare, or something equally bad.

Also it wasn't their people, it wasn't their right. Intrigue and spycraft is a given between nations, but if you act too overt you just end up getting everyone's very negative attention all on you.
 
So, basically... it worked out well those two times, but maybe next time the Changeling try something like this they'll, for example, cause the sisters to go Nightmare, or something equally bad.

Personally, the issue for me is that it's quite obvious that, besides the immense manipulations going on with Canterbury, this isn't the first time they've done this type of national level manipulation.

The Ends don't justify the Means, yes, but I'm quite affronted by the Ends.

You don't cause a Civil War through the death of a nation's ruler your first try.

That we were able to take advantage of said Civil War doesn't change the fact that the Changlings provoked the death of a huge amount of people.

And that was their intended End. The death of a huge amount of people. They wanted Maretonia to stop being a threat, so they decided to destroy a Nation.

Going back to what I was saying earlier, I'm fairly certain that once we make contact with every nation on this continent and get each nation's history, I'd be willing to bet good money that we'll see plenty of Flashpoints that had Changling influence all over them.

And if the evidence points otherwise?

I'll still suspect them because that's how poor their political capital is.

We need to either do a coup or have our army on hand for some heavy handed diplomacy.
 
I'm personally very frustrated (at the Changlings) by those wars existing due to Changling interference.

At minimum, thousands of people died because of them.

Because the Changlings went and incited multiple wars, and caused a shit ton of people to die, their political currency (trust) as a government is basically zero or in negative values, and will remain so unless and until we basically overthrow their government with our own appointed governor(s).

Every time a War or a Tragedy happens, we are going to be forced to consider Changling involvement, because the current administration has proven to be willing to mess with internal politics of other countries to the point of causing a complete collapse of government.

With the conclusion of the Maretonian Affair, I think that while we work on preparing for Reconstruction: Gryphus Style, we should really push for progress on the Canterbury Conspiracy.
I get what you mean and morally you're correct that they're responsible for the deaths of thousands of people, though to some extent they can't be blamed entirely because while they may have set the ball rolling in the civil war we have nothing to suggest that they knew how far Pegicles would go and we shouldn't downplay the roles other played just because they set things in motion

Plus the issue is we can't conclusively prove that they did start the civil war and even if we revealed that they started the war with Brochard that majority of people wouldn't care or might even be glad they did because that war is kinda what kickstarted the golden age the Empire is enjoying today
what if their agents were caught?
Ehh, I don't feel like we can criticise them for this one because if we do we have to call into question every intrigue action we've ever taken
Personally, the issue for me is that it's quite obvious that, besides the immense manipulations going on with Canterbury, this isn't the first time they've done this type of national level manipulation.

The Ends don't justify the Means, yes, but I'm quite affronted by the Ends.

You don't cause a Civil War through the death of a nation's ruler your first try.

That we were able to take advantage of said Civil War doesn't change the fact that the Changlings provoked the death of a huge amount of people.

And that was their intended End. The death of a huge amount of people. They wanted Maretonia to stop being a threat, so they decided to destroy a Nation.

Going back to what I was saying earlier, I'm fairly certain that once we make contact with every nation on this continent and get each nation's history, I'd be willing to bet good money that we'll see plenty of Flashpoints that had Changling influence all over them.

And if the evidence points otherwise?

I'll still suspect them because that's how poor their political capital is.

We need to either do a coup or have our army on hand for some heavy handed diplomacy.
The issue there is that so far every action the Changelings have taken has genuinely been for the best and again we have nothing to suggest that they possible could've predicted how bloody the civil war would be

Again, we shouldn't absolve the people who made the choices that led to the atrocities of the civil war of what they did just because the Changelings might have set it off

If Maretonia was so filled with corrupt, power hungry, blood thirsty and vile people that the death of one person resulted in all this then it arguably deserved to fall
 
Regarding the changelings. We should try their prophecy. It will be biased as hell, but information is still information. There's still a lot of things we can gleam about what they did and didn't say as at least from the prophecy we will know what concerns them and what is that they didn't like. Let's face it, we are only speculating about what ifs. Hearing their prophecy will let us know at least what kind of mask the Changeling Queen is in her Lake Lady persona that will let us have a ground base of what we can do.
 
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Guys, guys, hold up a bit. I know a lot of ya'll were hoping we'd get something more out of this than a hearty handshake and the very literal spoils of war, but the Maretonian Civil War just ended. Give them some time to get their bearings, figure out where they are and what they want to do. We're not just going to unilaterally annex them without getting their approval first. I mean, we could, but then we'd just have an entire countryside of folks who aren't very fond of us conquering their home because they couldn't fight back. No matter what happens, we've won here. Pegicles is dead, whatever regime pops up next will be free of slavery and more positively inclined towards trade and further relations with us. And the cost wasn't nearly as high as we feared it would be. The way things are I foresee several possible outcomes, which I'm going to go over for the sake of completeness:

1. The Maretonians decide that they can no longer form a proper state and decide to become a protectorate of Gryphus. This is, in many ways 'the best case scenario' for Gryphus, but even so, it's important to remember that Maretonia is pretty damn big, and it's going to take a lot of investment in order to get things up and running again. What's worse, this means that proper integration into our empire is massively important, because if we fail at that and they decide to split later, we'll have a large, powerful neighbor to our South who might have had a problem with being nominally subordinate to us this entire time.

2. The Maretonians decide they want to try and form a state. This is what's likely to happen, and I honestly have no idea how it might go. It's pretty much totally up to them. I will say that I don't think they're very likely to succeed without considerable help, as they don't really have the manpower, the expertise, and infrastructure to do so on their own. This is also the worst case scenario for Gryphus, as it puts us in the position of either letting them flounder, or expending considerable effort to help them with essentially no guarantee of any return on what is likely to be a very large investment on our parts.

3. The Maretonians decide they want to try and form a state... but pragmatically acknowledge that Maretonia as it once was is dead. Instead, they consolidate power, form a strong 'core' for their new state, and give the rest of the land over to Gryphus. This is essentially the compromise option, they still want to form their own independent state, but they're too small, too weak, and too poor to reform Maretonia, so they build a new country instead. The land that they decide they can't possibly administrate or protect, they give over to the Empire of Gryphus in exchange for aid, and probably quite a few concessions as well. This is the option I would say is the best case scenario for everyone, what's left of Maretonia gets to stay a country, we gain quite a bit of land and resources, and neither of us have to invest nearly as much into things as we would in the previous two options. This is also the 'safest' option, as everyone who stays probably intends to integrate with the Empire of Gryphus anyway, so there's far less risk of any issues involving a discontent populace who sees us as foreign conquerors.

I doubt they'll go for option #1 unless we try and push for it, and I don't want to risk alienating them, so it's probably not a good idea. The Maretonians are probably going to want option #2, but I don't really think it's practical or pragmatic for either faction to try and go for it, so we're likely going to have to talk them down from this position. Option #3 I think is the one most likely to work, both in the short-term and the long-term, and the one most likely to make everyone at least somewhat happy. So being realistic here, I think we should go for option #3 if we get the chance, that said, I'm very much open to suggestions.
 
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The issue there is that so far every action the Changelings have taken has genuinely been for the best and again we have nothing to suggest that they possible could've predicted how bloody the civil war would be

Again, we shouldn't absolve the people who made the choices that led to the atrocities of the civil war of what they did just because the Changelings might have set it off

If Maretonia was so filled with corrupt, power hungry, blood thirsty and vile people that the death of one person resulted in all this then it arguably deserved to fall

I direct you at Canterbury, where our investigations suggest that the Changlings deliberately kept their Monster Populations intact to use as a Stick for keeping their pony population cowed and to quietly remove any opposition or those who were too inquisitive for their own good.

The people fighting the Civil War have their own share of fault for fighting the Civil War, yes, but I'd bet dollars to donuts that the Changlings laid the groundwork for the Civil War to dissolve into so many factions like it did, and for attempts for peace to have been intercepted and perhaps even altered.

When the firm evidence and the circumstantial evidence suggests that an administration deliberately overthrew a government and arranged for a messy multi-sided Civil War, I am broadly unwilling to give them the benefit of the doubt.

The Queen was working on gaining enough centralized power that she'd actually be able to affect change.

And then the Changlings murdered her.

I do not believe that the current administration has the interests of everyone at heart.

Regarding the changelings. We should try their prophecy. It will be biased as hell, but information is still information. There's still a lot of things we can gleam about what they did and didn't say as at least from the prophecy we will know what concerns them and what is that they didn't like. Let's face it, we are only speculating about what ifs. Hearing their prophecy will let us know at least what kind of mask the Changeling Queen is in her Lake Lady persona that will let us have a ground base of what we can do.

Part of the issue is that the Changlings use Mind Control and Mental Suggestion.

I'm fairly certain that any "vision" would be imparted with and by such effects.

There's too much risk all told.
 
The people fighting the Civil War have their own share of fault for fighting the Civil War, yes, but I'd bet dollars to donuts that the Changlings laid the groundwork for the Civil War to dissolve into so many factions like it did, and for attempts for peace to have been intercepted and perhaps even altered.

When the firm evidence and the circumstantial evidence suggests that an administration deliberately overthrew a government and arranged for a messy multi-sided Civil War, I am broadly unwilling to give them the benefit of the doubt.

The Queen was working on gaining enough centralized power that she'd actually be able to affect change.

And then the Changlings murdered her.

I do not believe that the current administration has the interests of everyone at heart.
There is a bit of a point here, but....
This seems to be carrying a bit of the 'its always aliens' feel. Our one informant stated that massive penetration isn't the queen's style, and when we screened our officials we didn't find any. While they could do stuff, what little we know seems to be more putting individuals into important places and nudging things along.
I also feel obligated to state we have no solid evidence it was the changelings that did the murder, the only evidence being circumstantial, the poison from canturbary. They have the skill, they have access to the murder weapon, but taking that and saying they did it is like saying a Locksmith was the one who broke the safe because he would be skilled enough to do so, had a motive, and had access to a rare item that was left at the scene. Would be suspicious, but there is a reason such wouldn't hold up in court without more evidence.
 
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I doubt they'll go for option #1 unless we try and push for it, and I don't want to risk alienating them, so it's probably not a good idea. The Maretonians are probably going to want option #2, but I don't really think it's practical or pragmatic for either faction to try and go for it, so we're likely going to have to talk them down from this position. Option #3 I think is the one most likely to work, both in the short-term and the long-term, and the one most likely to make everyone at least somewhat happy. So being realistic here, I think we should go for option #3 if we get the chance, that said, I'm very much open to suggestions.
May I ask why you think they won't go for option #1?

While there will certainly be people opposed to it there will likely be just as many, if not more, that view it as desirable to have our support while they rebuild in exchange for protectorate status, especially if we guarantee a referendum to decide what to do later down the line
I direct you at Canterbury, where our investigations suggest that the Changlings deliberately kept their Monster Populations intact to use as a Stick for keeping their pony population cowed and to quietly remove any opposition or those who were too inquisitive for their own good.
That kinda feels like the most negative interpretation we could take of that, it's entirely possible that they kept those populations to keep their hives secret, to farm them for parts or even just because they actually are difficult to purge and it just hasn't gotten too difficult yet
The people fighting the Civil War have their own share of fault for fighting the Civil War, yes, but I'd bet dollars to donuts that the Changlings laid the groundwork for the Civil War to dissolve into so many factions like it did, and for attempts for peace to have been intercepted and perhaps even altered.

When the firm evidence and the circumstantial evidence suggests that an administration deliberately overthrew a government and arranged for a messy multi-sided Civil War, I am broadly unwilling to give them the benefit of the doubt.
The issue with that is that you're so unwilling to give the Changelings the benefit of the doubt that you're giving a lot to the Maretonians

I highly doubt that Changelings did set things up to be as bad as they were, and even if they did I don't believe for a second that they had to do much, because keep in mind that there were only actually four sides to the war and those sides were:

1) The Abolitionists who we supplied and supported before the war even started

2) The Royal Guard who sat out most of the war and just protected the capital

3) Pegicles who was a high ranking, highly respected, power hungry and merciless general for years before the war and wouldn't need much of a push to get involved

4) House White Star which consisted entirely of selfish, arrogant nobles who spent most of the war just sitting around and used to have a hobby of planning how to assassinate the queen
The Queen was working on gaining enough centralized power that she'd actually be able to affect change.

And then the Changlings murdered her.
Yes she was working on it but realistically she was never going to accomplish it, just about everyone except for the Royal Guard hated her and arguably if the Changelings didn't assassinate her someone else would have
I do not believe that the current administration has the interests of everyone at heart
Definitely not everyone and arguably not even us but it does benefit them to keep the majority happy and secure
Part of the issue is that the Changlings use Mind Control and Mental Suggestion.
Do they have mind control? I think they're spies are just very good at manipulation
 
May I ask why you think they won't go for option #1?

While there will certainly be people opposed to it there will likely be just as many, if not more, that view it as desirable to have our support while they rebuild in exchange for protectorate status, especially if we guarantee a referendum to decide what to do later down the line
Because It's ultimately a different situation to the Crystal Empire. By the time we'd come along, the Crystal Empire was already dead and gone, practically every part of it that really mattered to the people who lived there anyway. So when Gryphus rode in like conquering heroes and defeated Sombra, there wasn't really a whole lot else they could do really. They had to rely on us to live, to even function, so accepting becoming a protectorate, accepting the loss of their independence as a nation, was a relatively easy pill to swallow. After all, they needed us, they trusted us, and it's not like there was anything left worth fighting over, now was there?

Now Maretonia is a drastically different situation. For starters, Maretonia was still very much a 'thing' until very recently, even during the civil war, it wasn't until Pegicles decided to start burning cities and devastating his opponents with freakishly powerful storms that the country started to really fall apart at the seams. Second, we're not their saviors. Oh, we stopped Pegicles, to be sure, and he was one scary dude, but most of the people directly affected by Pegicles' actions are dead. The common pony only knows Pegicles as a terrifying tyrant that might have someday come for them and their families before he got stomped by those weird foreigners. This buys us some good will with the people, but not nearly as much as the defeat of Sombra, and for some rather obvious reasons. The only people that could really be said to be 'in our corner' on this one are going to be the emancipated slaves, and even then they're going to be leery of offering a foreign nation they're only mostly sure is on the level take control of their home. Third, Maretonia isn't in nearly as bad of shape as the Crystal Empire was at the end of the Winter War. I mean, they're pretty fucked, don't get me wrong, but they aren't literally helpless, and it won't be immediately obvious to everyone just how bad their situation is until people start realizing they have no means of defending their homes anymore, or of feeding their populace come Winter. So they're in terrible shape, but not yet truly desperate, and as such will be more leery of taking desperate measures unless death is literally staring them in the face. And fourth, finally, and perhaps most importantly... they simply don't trust us that much.

Which, I mean, I can hardly blame them for that. They barely know us after all, hesitation is understandable. They're afraid, and rightly so, that being made a 'protectorate' is just a thinly veiled excuse to annex them. Which, and let's be honest with ourselves here, it kinda is. Oh, we absolutely intend to take care of things on our end, but at the same time we want Maretonia. Why wouldn't we want Maretonia? It's land, it's resources, it's people, all of these things and more are genuinely worth pursuing, and they know that damn well. I mean, we might tell them that we'd let them break away from Gryphus if they really wanted to, heck, we can even mean it, but they have no way of knowing that we intend to honor that agreement beyond our word. And while that might mean quite a bit in some cultures, it definitely doesn't work that way for all of them, or even most of them. So yeah, this whole time they've been fighting not just to stop Pegicles, but to save Maretonia. And yes, if we're being honest again, it's probably too late for that, but they're not going to want to just hand over everything that they fought and bled for to a relative stranger with the vague promise that maybe, maybe they might one day actually get what they really want, if only they were to entrust everything to someone else. It's a big ask, and I wouldn't blame them in the slightest for being reluctant to go down that route.
 
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