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@Boney, if we recruited some group like the Longshanks to help us scour the city. Would it be possible for any of them to join us at the Spa if we don't end up finding anything before the murder? Presumably it would be much less than if we had them already in position, but a couple extra hands could be useful.
 
While we can't track the thread of the ritual back, would it be possible to spend several days camped out in roughly the southeast side of a city to look for that thread, seeking to confirm or rule out that we have the right city?

To me, it seems like Alric has a decent plan for stopping this if he can prevent the murder. The best way I can see to interfere with that plan is to track down Alberich before the murder can happen. Given that we've narrowed it down to two cities, we could just manhunt both of them, but it'd be tidier if we can rule out one of the cities and launch a manhunt in the other. That, and it could catch if we've made a bad assumption, and Alberich is in neither of the cities.

Failing that, spending the next two weeks running a manhunt seems like the way to go here.
 
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Days of effort Mathilde will have to replicate at any given location to be able to start looking for that single tendril of the ritual that leads back to Alberich.

Yes? Days is less than a week. We have two weeks and two cities to search. It would be deeply risky, I'm fully aware, but if the shadowsteed travel time is less than, say, five days out of fourteen, it should at least be plausible.
 
Yes? Days is less than a week. We have two weeks and two cities to search. It would be deeply risky, I'm fully aware, but if the shadowsteed travel time is less than, say, five days out of fourteen, it should at least be plausible.

Maybe reread all the posts Boney has already made in response to this train of thought again before continuing this? It was already addressed why that doesn't work.
 
So do we go to the source of the ritual and stop it now that we know what's going on?

Edit and never mind saw how that is not an option.
 
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So the solutions I'm leaning towards are A: forcing Alric to split credit by publicly joining him, or B: showing Alric up by waiting in the wings and swooping in to save the day when he gets over his head, or...

Are the murders happening at a distance (through proxies) or does Alberich have to show up and do them in person?

Is simply assassinating him when he shows up at the appointed time a feasible option?
 
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I really like the way this highlights what an awful, awful position being hunted by the Grey College is. In less than two months, a pair of sufficiently motivated wizards have stripped away the secrecy protecting a powerful chaos cultist: uncovered his plans, identified his patron(or at least ruled out the other three), and even identified the specific ritual he is working. They've essentially won the information war and now have the opportunity to hammer the bastard before he can complete the ritual.
 
I do not think Alaric will accept help if offered. The thing is he has a solid plan and looks to be winning. On top of Mathilde stilling his slave/apprentice Engrimm. This may get him back into power so why ask for help. I think it just be better to get some witch hunters than ambush the target before it happens.
 
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Maybe reread all the posts Boney has already made in response to this train of thought again before continuing this? It was already addressed why that doesn't work.

No. No it wasn't. I went back and checked to be sure.

Boney's point was that we couldn't *follow* the trail in reasonable time. What I'm trying to say is, we already have a decent idea of where Alberich is, so what if we gambled and skipped all the intermediate tracking, only searching at the suspected endpoint(s)?

If the answer was indeed 'nah, even if he was there trying to find him by windsight of the ritual is too imprecise', I'd have shut up already. Instead, the focus was on the time required. Which, again, as best I can tell would be scary tight, but possible.
 
... Right, and Alberich would still be around regardless, and long-term we want him squashed too.

Hmm.

I think at this point it might actually be worth coordinating with Alric; by guarding the other set we ensure the ritual can't be salvaged, coordinating with him makes tracking down and finishing Alberich much easier, and we ensure nothing risks splashing in the Empress's direction if Alric hasn't conclusively identified the ritual type yet, which we think he might not have.
If Mathilde is correct in believing this to be a Ritual of Dedication, then the absolute worse case scenario, Heidi being implicated in a Ritual of Vengeance and Mathilde being collateralled in the process, has already been taken off the table
Though of course we still want to settle the matter conclusively and quietly so as to avoid any possibility of the fact that Heidi is not actually a Haupt Anderson coming to light

Hmm.

This is a tricky situation, since by all accounts Alric's plan is damn solid. Right now I'm seeing only two ways to reduce his incoming credit - either beating him to the punch by scouring the city and jumping the daemon first, or by diluting it by joining forces.

There's complications involved with the second choice, though - Alric knows that we're involved in fucking with him due to our grand theft Horstmann and is unlikely to be accommodating, so there's a significant chance he just tells us to fuck off, then successfully smites the daemon by himself when it shows up to the killzone that Alric has spent the last month putting up Hysh wards on.

Of course, that's coming at it from a "deny Alric credit" perspective, which isn't actually why we're still here. It should be worth "taking the loss" on letting Alric take credit if it means we can be in a better position to keep Heidi's situation under wraps - though of course if we do go that route we can't be too obvious about it, since Regimand will start asking questions if we are.
I don't think it serves either our hidden objectives if Alric turns down the offer of assistance
It'd make him look a lot worse in the event that he fails for turning down assistance that it turns out he needed, but it won't help us bury whole mess this quietly which would make it a wasted action
And currently I'd give very strong odds that Alric refuses the offer, seeing as current observation suggests that he hasn't tried to work with any other authority or cult on the matter
Let alone a fellow Wizard that he'd have every right to suspect is trying to undermine his potential achievement

Alric could successfully defend the Unfahigers, thus stopping or derailing the ritual, but if Mathilde tracks down and slays Alberich then she will be able to take some of Alric's credit away from him.

Unless that is Alberich is going to be investing so much of himself into the murder attempt that Alric could kill him by interfering with his ritual at the murder location?


Either way, I feel like we might be more useful tracking down and sniping Alberich. We have Shadowsteed. And Alric is only one wizard.

Question is, would we want to approach Alric to cooperate on this? "You defend them from the murder ritual, I track down Alberich"?

Question @Boney, would it be easier for us to track down Alberich if we had a cooperative Alric on the defensive side of things?
I'd be surprised if this stops at defending the victim from the ritual
For one thing there's the very real possibility that Boney outlined where Alberich might be able to salvage the thing by murdering one of the undefended Unfähigers instead

For another, Alrics doing this so that he has a big, noteworthy achievement from which he might be able to ride back into power on
Quietly dissolving the ritual is a victory, but it's not the kind of big, glorious, resounding victory that Alric's probably looking for
Not unless Alberich explodes in the process anyway, which might happen granted

Currently I figure that Alric's setting up more of a trap than he is a fortress, with the Unfähigers as bait
And if this ends up just repelling Albreich instead of eliminating him then I imagine sooner or later Alric's just going to go Daemon/cultist hunting in an effort to end this conclusively

Yeah trying to find him looks difficult in the amount of time we have. At this point we should either work with Alaric or just wait with back up and kill the target when it shows up to do the deed.
I mean we have two weeks, that's not an insubstantial amount of time to conduct a manhunt
 
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No. No it wasn't. I went back and checked to be sure.

Boney's point was that we couldn't *follow* the trail in reasonable time. What I'm trying to say is, we already have a decent idea of where Alberich is, so what if we gambled and skipped all the intermediate tracking, only searching at the suspected endpoint(s)?

If the answer was indeed 'nah, even if he was there trying to find him by windsight of the ritual is too imprecise', I'd have shut up already. Instead, the focus was on the time required. Which, again, as best I can tell would be scary tight, but possible.

This is what I referred to.

Just check a city of hundreds of thousands when it takes Mathilde days of concentration to spot if the trail is within a few blocks of her?

I think you put too much emphasis on the idea that the tendril leading to him is an actual line in the sky that can be calibrated easily. Data points don't seem to triangulate out so simply.
 
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Honestly, my thoughts right now are to ransack the manor, check the underworld, and do research on Alberich's new form. Ransacking the manor may reveal a hidey hole or other place of safety within the general area we're dealing with in order to narrow down our search. The underworld having things going on makes me think that our Oldest Friend may be able to help us suss out a few things. And the form research will help make identifying him easier.
 
No. No it wasn't. I went back and checked to be sure.

Boney's point was that we couldn't *follow* the trail in reasonable time. What I'm trying to say is, we already have a decent idea of where Alberich is, so what if we gambled and skipped all the intermediate tracking, only searching at the suspected endpoint(s)?

If the answer was indeed 'nah, even if he was there trying to find him by windsight of the ritual is too imprecise', I'd have shut up already. Instead, the focus was on the time required. Which, again, as best I can tell would be scary tight, but possible.

But Boney already explained the unfeasibility:

Just check a city of hundreds of thousands when it takes Mathilde days of concentration to spot if the trail is within a few blocks of her?

You spent 5 days in a random spot in the city, your result is "your target isn't in a five block radius". Now repeat that twenty times to cover the whole city if he doesn't move. Each attempt costs you several days, you have two weeks.
 
If Mathilde is correct in believing this to be a ritual of dedication, then the absolute worse case scenario, Heidi being implicated in a Ritual of Vengeance and Mathilde being collateralled in the process, has already been taken off the table
Has it?

Mathilde knows what kind of ritual it is, but if Alric doesn't, and successfully stops the ritual here without figuring out what kind of ritual it was and who was doing it, he still might go digging into Heidi's history.

We'd prefer he not do that.
 
Honestly, my thoughts right now are to ransack the manor, check the underworld, and do research on Alberich's new form. Ransacking the manor may reveal a hidey hole or other place of safety within the general area we're dealing with in order to narrow down our search. The underworld having things going on makes me think that our Oldest Friend may be able to help us suss out a few things. And the form research will help make identifying him easier.
There are only two weeks left, so two actions remain, not three.
 
That was after three paragraphs of emphasizing how it takes days of effort to tune out all the background noise of reality before any of that is visible. Days of effort Mathilde will have to replicate at any given location to be able to start looking for that single tendril of the ritual that leads back to Alberich.
Not to mention a really good roll that may not cooperate again. If the 6th doesn't get stopped trying to track it before the 7th happens might be a good idea, but for now the most important thing would be making sure that Alric doesn't succeed by himself. Not sure how that would look yet though. Worst case scenario, fake the next murder yourself. (That's a joke, don't do that please).
 
Yeah I think I should remind people we have 2 cities to search we can maybe do 1 in that time.
While Talagaad was noted as an unlikely possibility alongside the more probable Talabheim, currently the option to scour doesn't include choosing between them
So I assume that either it's being covered, or Mathilde considers the possibility too faint to bother with Talagaad
That's my assumption until Boney says otherwise anyway

Also I know you've been insisting that we ought to just set up a trap for Alberich on the night of the murder, so you may have missed this
- There will be a final vote for what to do at the scheduled time of the murder. You don't need a readying action for Regimand or any other Wizards you might recruit to be able to act on that night.
Since it looks like that's covered under a seperate vote, we don't have to choose between taking a shot at a manhunt or trying to ambush Albreich on the night of the murder, we can do both
 
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What if we bring the rest of the Unfathers to the spa and rely on Alric and us to defend them all. We can truthfully say that they could have been used as replacement for the ritual.
 
Your Marksdwarf pistol also plays a part, adding a brace of ducks to your day's tally at a range the the fowler musket could only dream of.
The word "the" repeats.
You take some time to clean off the accumulate grime of a week in the marsh
*accumulated
The comings and goings of other patrons is next for you to ignore, but once you begin to filter himself you start to be able to see Alric himself, shining like a lighthouse as he moves around the building and occasionally flaring as he makes some preparation or another.
I'm not sure how to parse "begin to filter himself" there.
Yeah trying to find him looks difficult in the amount of time we have. At this point we should either work with Alaric or just wait with back up and kill the target when it shows up to do the deed.
I'm dubious Alric will want to work with us. And in addition to what CrimsonOddball just noted, it's also not clear that Alberich is actually showing up in person as opposed to sending disposable daemonic mooks or something. The best way to actually stop the ritual cold is to hunt down Alberich, and if we try it and it fails we can still try to swoop in on the night of the murder itself and foil the attempt there.

So all in all, I think our best bet will be to research Alberich's form and then do a manhunt for him. I'd prefer the Longshanks for that still.
 
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