Alric is described as having a keen insight: he won't go bumbling into things.
His mind is still sharp, and what has foiled him so far has been the relevant authority telling him to go be nosy somewhere else.
The Unfahrigers welcome his nosiness in the hopes of being saved from a grisly fate.
It's best to assume that whatever Chaos thing is going on, if Alric comes across it, he'll notice it.
Hell, his presence alone should have chaos cultists shitting their pants.
Regimand himself said:
The only reason to stick our nose in is because of Heidi and Ranald.
That comes from a very biased source.
And the notion that he is competent comes from... no source. We have literally never seen him be competent. I say we do the Grey Wizard approach and assume he is not until proven otherwise. I do not see why this man whom we have reason to suspect of both incompetence and malice should get a free pass at both when even Johann was not spared of suspicion.
That's still not proff except for that he's bad at diplo. And being run out of stirland is again diplo, not intrigue. Maybe he's bad at it, maybe he's not but I wouldn't bet the stability of the empire on it, and that's what at stake, because if Heidi's out so is Manfred and at that point there is no clear winner for Emperor
And this is an investigation dealing with nobles where diplo is paramout