We have plenty of time, Laena is likely to die before the dance since I feel we've not really made it less likely her Marriage with Daemon will occur. Thus Vhaegar will be available hopefully to one of our children that failed to hatch an egg, or a half-sibling. (I'd like to try and have a good relationship with our half-siblings regardless of if one of them gets Vhaegar or not)
I'm not at all sure that Laena dying in childbirth is something we should plan on, as opposed to being a fluke. Also, if Laena doesn't die in childbirth and maybe even if she does, the Laena-Daemon marriage is actively quite dangerous to Rhaenyra's chances of succession in this timeline if there is no corresponding Laenor-Rhaenyra marriage.
The canonical Dance of the Dragons was a contest between Rhaenyra and her half-siblings, with the Velaryons having very little incentive to side with the latter. With Daemon probably hostile and no Laenor-Rhaenyra marriage, the Velaryons become an independent faction in their own right. They'd have a lot riding on Daemon's kids with Laena, especially if, as you point out, Laenor is not so likely to ever sire children of his own to be Velaryon heirs otherwise. And Daemon has big ambition, and his kids with Laena would have a fairly good shot at the Iron Throne if they play their cards right.
Back to seriousness, both the other main contenders of Harwin and Gwayne also have advantages that seem to being discounted simply because "this other group has dragons."
Laenor / Gwayne / Harwin
- Harwin / Laenor seem to be very caring parents.
- Gwayne at least in show world likely had some influence on the raising of Daeron and as such is likely not horrid as a father figure.
- All three of them are accomplished knights in their own right some (Harwin) notably significant.
- All are connected to members of the High Council
- Generally seem to be pretty reasonable individuals (Gwayne perhaps has put up more of an act given whom his father is but I think he tends towards fine even if its partially an act)
Harwin / Gwayne
- Are able to aid in the act of producing offspring
- Are not known for their preference towards men
- Have in story already interacted with us generally positively (in show Laenor had childhood connections with Rhaynera but seems not so in this quest)
- Clearly respectful of our martial prowess (I do not think Laenor would be against it)
- Both come from houses that are respected in their Kingdoms, and much like how the Lannisters of the Westerlands are very excited to have a noble of their bannerman next to the Iron Throne for their interests, the same can be said for both the Riverlands and Reach respectively
Gwayne
- Otto become an instant major supporter of us, because we are fulfilling his wish.
- Otto's least favorite people are specifically Daemon and Corlys and that is something I think most of us can agree with.
- This is predicted to be the best cover for our relationship with Alicent. (there isn't perfect proof of that)
- This gives us potentially the most connection to positively interact with Maestors whom are in general less likely to be into Dragons and Us given the way the wrote the canon history and likely aided in the removal of the Dragons.
Harwin
- Harrenhall is the best place to amass an army if we do not maintain control of King's Landing.
- Two potential Master of Whispers candidates stem from here. (Not giving Gwayne Mysaria through Otto because Otto will ruin that relationship at some point)
- Lyonel strong is just, good, and loyal.
- Is someone actually on the Romance List, thus certainly physically and emotionally interested in at least Rhaynera.
- The buffest babies.
- I expect is much less likely to die if Wed to us than if he becomes our "sperm donor" under a Laenor marriage.
Don't get me wrong, there are respectable reasons to marry Harwin and maybe Gwayne if it turns out that he'd be basically okay with being the beard for our relationship with his own sister which admittedly he very well might think is
weird.
It's just that if we don't find some assurance of stabilizing things with the Velaryons, we have a problem and it's hard to foresee a way to solve it.
Especially if we don't settle down and have dragonriding kids really fast who can help balance out the numbers in a future Dance of the Dragons.
Then no matter what we choose we are going to have a Dance and I'd rather have it with our half-siblings on our side against the weaker claim of Daemon / House Velaryon than with some part of them against our half-siblings, or a horrid 3+ way dance.
I really don't think we're going to be able to keep our half-siblings on-side. Either we're stuck with a three-way Dance of the Dragons, or we find some way to bind the Velaryons to us...
Or we pray that sheer happenstance neutralizes one or both factions (i.e. both Velaryon kids die before the Dance happens as in canon despite all the butterflies, or that all of Johanna's kids are daughters who can't plausibly be presented as having a better claim to the throne than we do, or that in some other way "the horse learns to sing."
And also while I like Gwayne, well... regarding Otto's use as an ally, to adapt the famous Stalin quote:
"The Hand? How many divisions does he have?"
Well, as with the pope, the answer is "actually probably more than you expect, if he wanted to call for them."
It's
dragons where Hightower is lacking.
On the other hand, it's worth remembering that there are actually two major threats to our rule that are likely to arise:
Dragons, and intrigue.
Dragon superiority tends to decide conventional warfare- if we are a lone dragonrider opposed by 3-4 enemy dragonriders, the odds approach unity that we will be brought down by that factor alone. But intrigue can prevent things from ever coming to a conventional battle in the first place.
Someone like Otto Hightower is a pretty good Intrigue ally.
