so yes, we absoultly can switch off using forge actions to increase BAP, but each forge action gets us 2-4 BAP, meanwhile, a forge action on a multi turn project like say the grand academy (the lowest continous cost multi turn project that isnt enhance industry.) will save at least 2 BAP, more likely 4 BAP, and a possiblity of 6 BAP. so at worst, the forge on the grand academy is equal to industry, but it has a higher celling, of course, i will admit this assumes that we are building said academy already. which may not be true.
on the ships, I swear we used a forge activation to refit a bunch of nettles. The engine i was assuming would apply the same way.
My point is, BAP is best spent on BAP, while we use what is left on foward progress. wether that be 10000 EP for making Vehicles. getting more AP in other categories where we always need more (Seekers) or even trying to improve our ability to fight the curse, even if it appears our only option for seers is the scrying chamber right now
Forge can be used for the ships or the engine.
But 1d3 roll is than how many time that project is executed with the forge:
So on retrofitting escorts its 1d3x3 Ships.
For the engine the small fault are 1EP each so 1d3 worth of project done.
While the Plasma stuff is 1d3x3EP done.
But these are all cases where you also just could dump more BAP into it, and pretty much get the same progress.
The problem with the academy is that the starting AP price is stupidly high, having to drop 6AP on a single project is pretty rough more so when it has an extra run time of 5-9 turns. Even with double forge there is a very good chance that needs multiple turns.
The thing is, there's a 50% chance the Forge is overkill, that it overflows and we get wasted cost reduction. Now it's true that there's a 5/6 chance that forge saves 1 AP and gives us 1 AP (by finishing a turn earlier), I'm not convinced that we can't do better with a Forge action that generates an average of 1 2/3 BAP.
Given the exchange rate for Wargear, that really doesn't seem very efficient. We could buy enough Ithilmar Warsuits to equip a lot of our troops with that.
Take a look at how things look if you keep investing into the BAP infrastructure instead of going for one-off.
The fast adding of AP means doing so is far less of a strain us, in the next turn which still being long term more AP efficient as having more AP faster is quite important for snowballing.
Pretty sure we pull this off:
Assumption Industry on average needs : (2,3,3)
Turn "1"
Enhance Industry x3
- 2 Forge action (average at 4)
Replace Primary Power Distribution Control x2
Turn "2" (Total 6)
Enhance Industry x3
-1 Forge action (boost 1)
- average case: 2 Finished, 1 building (finished next turn)
Repairing the Plasma System
-1 Forge action
+1 Free AP
Turn "3" (9 Total)
Enhance Industry x3
-1 Forge action (boost 1)
- average case: 4 Finished, 2 building (2 finished on turn 4)
1 Forge action free +4 AP
Turn "4" (12 total)
Followed by:
Enhance Industry x3
-1 Forge action (boost 1)
- ~5 finished, 4 building (2 finish this turn, 2 finish turn 5)
1 Forge action free, +5 AP
Turn "5" (15 total)
Followed by:
Enhance Industry x3
-1 Forge action (boost 1)
-8 finished, 4 building, (2 finish this turn, 2 finish turn 6)
1 Forge action free, +8AP
Turn "6" (15 total)
Followed by:
Enhance Industry x3 (15 total)
-1 Forge action (boost 1)
-11 finished, 4 building (2 finish this turn, 2 finish turn 6)
1 Forge action free, +11 AP
Start assumes average rolls on the forge, but other than that very damn close to the worst case on the forge rolls.
Overall get the Engine done turn "4", following that we start to get a lot of AP that we can invest into other things and the forge action starts to lose its effect as a turbocharger for BAP generation and just using more BAP becomes more effective.
That said the Forge actions help a lot by reducing the strain on building a lot of BAP infrastructure at the start.
Edit.
Break down that the forge is really good at helping us get our BAP generation jump started fast without going all in, and also staying flexible if we might need a lot of BAP for something else due to not having 4+ AP drained by the ongoing building.
It also builds up a lot faster than raw BAP investment if you keep investing for 3-4 turns.