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Forge of Destiny(Xianxia Quest)

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TheLastOne said:
Plan Plan means we can probably try twice though. Breaking through is hard in one turn, so it does meaningfully raise the odds.
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We can try twice with either plan, though I'll personally vote against such a plan as I think we need social actions. It's been very long now and there are issues arising.

Also, I want to use one of our extra Qi Foundation pill and learn Argent Soul in the beginning of the weak before breakthrough, so we don't waste all of our extra Qi foundation pills.
 
TheLastOne said:
Plan Plan means we can probably try twice though. Breaking through is hard in one turn, so it does meaningfully raise the odds.
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The odds are exactly the same. Unless you have some secret pill which makes breakthroughs easier, and can only be used once, it's probably smarter to spread out the breakthroughs, so that we can quickly retrain them back in case of a fail. While we are not likely to fail both, we will probably at least fail one. And if you want to make both next turn, we just need to dedicate one action to spiritual + spiritual breakthrough then, but currently we are under effect of pills, and as such having those extra dices in Arts makes a lot more sense, since they are the hardest to get.
 
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Arkeus said:
We can try twice with either plan, though I'll personally vote against such a plan as I think we need social actions. It's been very long now and there are issues arising.

Also, I want to use one of our extra Qi Foundation pill and learn Argent Soul in the beginning of the weak before breakthrough, so we don't waste all of our extra Qi foundation pills.
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Raron said:
The odds are exactly the same. Unless you have some secret pill which makes breakthroughs easier, and can only be used once, it's probably smarter to spread out the breakthroughs, so that we can quickly retrain them back in case of a fail. While we are not likely to fail both, we will probably at least fail one.
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Breaking through requires we be at peak, and takes one-two actions, one for each level, but we stop if we fail one of the rolls. So trying to break through both means we can at most be one cultivation action away from the peak of both, but ideally we should be at both peaks. Neither plan actually guarantees getting to both peaks, but Zephyr does have a higher chance of being further away - 18 successes for reaching peak Zephyr, with an average of 3 more successes further away for rolling 6 few dice.

That could end up being a serious cultivation turn away from breaking through in Spiritual. If we fail physical, there will be a big temptation to build that up again at the same time, potentially further deluding our efforts.

So no, I think honest requires you to admit Plan Plan does, statistically, get us through breakthrough of at least one of physical or spiritual, faster.
 
Not a fan of shoving 4 breakthrough attempts in one week, if that's what's being suggested. Not on the tail of our heavy cultivation focus. Ling Qi needs a -bit- of space to decompress and reconnect with people that isn't hastily arranged defensive alliances. And I strongly think that's the broad consensus among players. That spending 4 actions on breaking through while we have 5 actions to work with isn't workable with the obligations we've let simmer on the backburner.
 
TheLastOne said:
That could end up being a serious cultivation turn away from breaking through in Spiritual. If we fail physical, there will be a big temptation to build that up again at the same time, potentially further deluding our efforts.

So no, I think honest requires you to admit Plan Plan does, statistically, get us through breakthrough of at least one of physical or spiritual, faster.
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Not at all. Both can try to breakthrough twice on physical next turn (4 actions taken) but it's a bad idea, and both are extremely likely to be able to try to breakthrough on both spiritual and physical next turn (5 actions needed as we'd need to be peak red, and that's for both plan) but again that's not a good idea.

It's a bit less likely to try twice breakthrough (4 actions) on spiritual or spiritual+physical, but not significantly so, and then it comes back to "It's not about breakthrough on at least one". So, no.
 
AbeoLogos said:
Not a fan of shoving 4 breakthrough attempts in one week, if that's what's being suggested. Not on the tail of our heavy cultivation focus. Ling Qi needs a -bit- of space to decompress and reconnect with people that isn't hastily arranged defensive alliances. And I strongly think that's the broad consensus among players. That spending 4 actions on breaking through while we have 5 actions to work with isn't workable with the obligations we've let simmer on the backburner.
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So what, are we going to stay red/gold till week 16 so we can have one last tea week? If we don't break though next week, and are cultivating/rebuilding cultivation on week 14, the earliest we can seriously expect to break all the way though is 15. At which point we'll probably try and draw it out so that we can benefit from the tea one last time.

I... could see the logic of that. It seem really risky though. I think our main focus right now has to be breaking through, even at the cost of social ties. It is in fact normal for us to retreat so we can pursue this, so I don't think it will be that socially expensive.

Arkeus said:
Not at all. Both can try to breakthrough twice on physical next turn (4 actions taken) but it's a bad idea, and both are extremely likely to be able to try to breakthrough on both spiritual and physical next turn (5 actions needed as we'd need to be peak red, and that's for both plan) but again that's not a good idea.

It's a bit less likely to try twice breakthrough (4 actions) on spiritual or spiritual+physical, but not significantly so, and then it comes back to "It's not about breakthrough on at least one". So, no.
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I'm missing your logic here. Each breakthrough attempt is one action. Breaking through requires two successful attempts. So if we're, say at Peak Gold and fifteen away from Peak Red, we can't make both attempts. We can attempt to break through to silver, and cultivate Spiritual, but without a good roll we would need to cultivate spiritual twice before we could attempt breakthrough. Again, this is looking like a plan that gets us a breakthrough on turn 15-16, rather then 14-15. And if it gets pushed to 16, we're likely to push it off again to 17.
 
TheLastOne said:
Breaking through requires we be at peak, and takes one-two actions, one for each level, but we stop if we fail one of the rolls. So trying to break through both means we can at most be one cultivation action away from the peak of both, but ideally we should be at both peaks. Neither plan actually guarantees getting to both peaks, but Zephyr does have a higher chance of being further away - 18 successes for reaching peak Zephyr, with an average of 3 more successes further away for rolling 6 few dice.

That could end up being a serious cultivation turn away from breaking through in Spiritual. If we fail physical, there will be a big temptation to build that up again at the same time, potentially further deluding our efforts.

So no, I think honest requires you to admit Plan Plan does, statistically, get us through breakthrough of at least one of physical or spiritual, faster.
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What I got from the part I quoted is that you were claiming that it's easier to breakthrough to Yellow and Silver if we did it on the same turn, for which I pointed out that there is no prior evidence of that. I never claimed that we are more likely to reach 60/60 on both Spiritual and Physical using Plan Zephyr, it's just that the Plan Zephyr gets us points towards Zephyrs Breath cultivation worth 4 actions due to all pills we are taking (for the price of 2). Most of those pills will be spent, and it's far better to deposit them into Arts, then to put them into spiritual cultivation, which can be trained next turn, along with a breakthrough. While that does take one action next turn, it saves 2 actions which will be needed to be used to finish the learning of Stage 3 of Zephyrs breath.

So yea, while your plan has higher chance to get us 60/60 on the cultivations, it's nothing special considering that we are going to lose some actions economically wise. If you want both to breakthrough next turn we can do it next turn.
[] Cultivate on your own
-[] Spiritual
[] Breaktrough
-[] Spiritual
-[] Physical

While it will take a extra action, it's 2 successes worth of actions of training Zephyrs breath (+ safety of mastering it). It also saves us a headache of opening one less meridian and not knowing what to do with it. We should first find the Arts which suit us, and only then open the Meridians for them.

Also, poor social :(
 
Raron said:
What I got from the part I quoted is that you were claiming that it's easier to breakthrough to Yellow and Silver if we did it on the same turn, for which I pointed out that there is no prior evidence of that. I never claimed that we are more likely to reach 60/60 on both Spiritual and Physical using Plan Zephyr, it's just that the Plan Zephyr gets us points towards Zephyrs Breath cultivation worth 4 actions due to all pills we are taking (for the price of 2). Most of those pills will be spent, and it's far better to deposit them into Arts, then to put them into spiritual cultivation, which can be trained next turn, along with a breakthrough. While that does take one action next turn, it saves 2 actions which will be needed to be used to finish the learning of Stage 3 of Zephyrs breath.

So yea, while your plan has higher chance to get us 60/60 on the cultivations, it's nothing special considering that we are going to lose some actions economically wise. If you want both to breakthrough next turn we can do it next turn.
[] Cultivate on your own
-[] Spiritual
[] Breaktrough
-[] Spiritual
-[] Physical

While it will take a extra action, it's 2 successes worth of actions of training Zephyrs breath (+ safety of mastering it). It also saves us a headache of opening one less meridian and not knowing what to do with it. We should first find the Arts which suit us, and only then open the Meridians for them.

Also, poor social :(
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That would be

[] Cultivate on your own
-[] Spiritual X2
[] Breaktrough
-[] Physical
--[] If successful physical, else something else
[] Something else


My Plan would be

[] Cultivate on your own
-[] Zephyr probably
[] Breaktrough
-[] Physical
--[] If successful physical, else something else
-[] Spiritual
--[] If successful spiritual, else something else.

Edit
Though what we'll actually get with Zephyr will probably be -

[] Breaktrough
-[] Physical
--[] If successful physical, else something else
[] Something else
[] Something else
[] Something else

Because a bunch of people are wanted to take care of our social responsibilities, and won't want to spend a turn both gambling, and running up to gamble.
 
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TheLastOne said:
I'm missing your logic here. Each breakthrough attempt is one action. Breaking through requires two successful attempts. So if we're, say at Peak Gold and fifteen away from Peak Red, we can't make both attempts. We can attempt to break through to silver, and cultivate Spiritual, but without a good roll we would need to cultivate spiritual twice before we could attempt breakthrough. Again, this is looking like a plan that gets us a breakthrough on turn 15-16, rather then 14-15. And if it gets pushed to 16, we're likely to push it off again to 17.
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I now have no clue what you are saying. We need two successful attempts, so it means we need 2 actions to breakthroughs, so trying twice to breakthrough means 4 physical actions, so it becomes Attempt => if success second attempt, if not success cultivate back to peak => if not breakthrough on second action, another breakthrough on third (or cultivate back to peak= => if not breakthrough on third, another breakthrough attempt on fourth (or cultivate back to peak), that is what I mean by "two tries". We can also have a fifth action at the end though, but of course I don't want that.

As for getting to Peak Red, sure, it demands higher dices, but it doesn't have anything to do for getting physical to breakthrough either, so even if we aren't lucky and don't get it it just means we won't try both Silver and Yellow in the same turn (if we'd want to).
 
TheLastOne said:
So what, are we going to stay red/gold till week 16 so we can have one last tea week? If we don't break though next week, and are cultivating/rebuilding cultivation on week 14, the earliest we can seriously expect to break all the way though is 15. At which point we'll probably try and draw it out so that we can benefit from the tea one last time.

I... could see the logic of that. It seem really risky though. I think our main focus right now has to be breaking through, even at the cost of social ties. It is in fact normal for us to retreat so we can pursue this, so I don't think it will be that socially expensive.
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What? Why is it a question of trying to breakthrough in both areas or none? We try for either spiritual or physical on week 13; If successful, we try the other on week 14. If unsuccessful, we complete on week 14 and try at least one breakthrough for the other on top.

There's no waiting till week 16 for more tea, because I wholly expect to breakthrough in either physical or spiritual by week 14. If either breaks through, we can't use the tea.
 
I mostly see the plans as equivalent, but Arkeus plan should let us cap Zephyr, and given that we will have to fight week 13 with near surety I prefer us to be that much more better at fighting, than being a bit more dice efficient.
 
Arkeus said:
I now have no clue what you are saying. We need two successful attempts, so it means we need 2 actions to breakthroughs, so trying twice to breakthrough means 4 physical actions, so it becomes Attempt => if success second attempt, if not success cultivate back to peak => if not breakthrough on second action, another breakthrough on third (or cultivate back to peak= => if not breakthrough on third, another breakthrough attempt on fourth (or cultivate back to peak), that is what I mean by "two tries". We can also have a fifth action at the end though, but of course I don't want that.

As for getting to Peak Red, sure, it demands higher dices, but it doesn't have anything to do for getting physical to breakthrough either, so even if we aren't lucky and don't get it it just means we won't try both Silver and Yellow in the same turn (if we'd want to).
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We lose progress if we fail a breakthrough attempt, so we can only try a full breakthrough once for physical - that requires two actions. But either of the actions failing means we aren't breaking though physical that turn. Hence, we want to be both peak red and peak gold at the same time, so we can attempt to breakthrough both of them, because that raises the odds and means we likely breakthrough one of them sooner.
 
tenchifew said:
I mostly see the plans as equivalent, but Arkeus plan should let us cap Zephyr, and given that we will have to fight week 13 with near surety I prefer us to be that much more better at fighting, than being a bit more dice efficient.
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My plan is more dice efficient. Current week has us having 28/29 dices for Zephyr if I am counting right. Normally we get 14 dices with Li Suyin. this means we'd need two actions in two different weeks to train it (and have slightly worse dices).

The only difference is Plan Plan means having 13~ spiritual success to get on week 13, instead of 20~, so it means we'd prioritise getting to silver then... except that if people prefer Yellow first I just need to switch overflow order, but I think Silver is better and 'safer'.
TheLastOne said:
We lose progress if we fail a breakthrough attempt, so we can only try a full breakthrough once for physical - that requires two actions. But either of the actions failing means we aren't breaking though physical that turn. Hence, we want to be both peak red and peak gold at the same time, so we can attempt to breakthrough both of them, because that raises the odds and means we likely breakthrough one of them sooner.
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No, it means we have to retrain it. We know we can, we asked earlier if upon failing we could retrain and retry in same turn. Not that I want to.
 
TheLastOne said:
We lose progress if we fail a breakthrough attempt, so we can only try a full breakthrough once for physical - that requires two actions. But either of the actions failing means we aren't breaking though physical that turn. Hence, we want to be both peak red and peak gold at the same time, so we can attempt to breakthrough both of them, because that raises the odds and means we likely breakthrough one of them sooner.
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Ok so assuming peak red/gold your hypothetical turn 13 plan would be
[] Breakthrogh spiritual
[]Breakthrough spiritual x2 (if initial breakthrough fails breakthrough physical).

Am I understanding you right?
 
Tea isn't worth delaying another four weeks. Not being Level 4 in some form of Cultivation is dangerous enough by the end of thunderdome, delaying another three weeks could be devastating.
 
Arkeus said:
My plan is more dice efficient. Current week has us having 28/29 dices for Zephyr if I am counting right. Normally we get 14 dices with Li Suyin. this means we'd need two actions in two different weeks to train it (and have slightly worse dices).

The only difference is Plan Plan means having 13~ spiritual success to get on week 13, instead of 20~, so it means we'd prioritise getting to silver then... except that if people prefer Yellow first I just need to switch overflow order, but I think Silver is better and 'safer'.

No, it means we have to retrain it. We know we can, we asked earlier if upon failing we could retrain and retry in same turn. Not that I want to.
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Your plan is totally less dice efficient, though only by a marginal amount. It's six dice less efficient, because we get six dice more for cultivating Meridians then Wind Arts with the drugs we're taking.

But more then that, we could wipe out all but 15 points of progress on a particularly bad roll on breakthrough attempts, so putting all our eggs in the physical basket is not a great idea. We should be attempting both physical and spiritual at the same time, not pretending we can attempt physical twice. We might be able to, but that strictly worse then trying both physical and spiritual, because one bad roll can end the first, while it take two to end the second.

You really aren't being completely honest here when you act like we have as good odds for a soonish breakthrough with your plan - we're moving successes from preparation for breakthrough to Zephyr art, 18 promised, with more six dice being rolled, for an average of 21 success less successes for our breakthrough preparations. That's not trivial.
 
Humbaba said:
Ok so assuming peak red/gold your hypothetical turn 13 plan would be
[] Breakthrogh spiritual
[]Breakthrough spiritual x2 (if initial breakthrough fails breakthrough physical).

Am I understanding you right?
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No, my plan for next week goes something like -

[] Cultivate with friends on vent
-[] zephyr? Maybe finally show Meizhen SCS? She did ask.
[Breakthough]
-Physical
--If successful, physical, if failed, comesirate with friends - didn't Gu Xuilan also fail recently? We can be failure buddies.
-Spiritual
-- If successful spiritual, if failed, some other social activity to blow off steam. Maybe we should do more to befriend Su Ling?
 
TheLastOne said:
Your plan is totally less dice efficient, though only by a marginal amount. It's six dice less efficient, because we get six dice more for cultivating Meridians then Wind Arts with the drugs we're taking.
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Art dices are not meridian dices. Meridian dices are much, much, much less precious. They use Argent Soul, they use Argent Vent, they use more low quality pills and Qi Foundation Pill (though that one won't last long).
But more then that, we could wipe out all but 15 points of progress on a particularly bad roll on breakthrough attempts, so putting all our eggs in the physical basket is not a great idea. We should be attempting both physical and spiritual at the same time, not pretending we can attempt physical twice. We might be able to, but that strictly worse then trying both physical and spiritual, because one bad roll can end the first, while it take two to end the second.

You really aren't being completely honest here when you act like we have as good odds for a soonish breakthrough with your plan - we're moving successes from preparation for breakthrough to Zephyr art, 18 promised, with more six dice being rolled, for an average of 21 success less successes for our breakthrough preparations. That's not trivial.
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Actually, we can't go below 25 on a bad breakthrough attempt. It's not strictly worse to breakthrough multiple times on physical.

What the heck. No. It's 4/5 success less on average.
 
TheLastOne said:
Your plan is totally less dice efficient, though only by a marginal amount. It's six dice less efficient, because we get six dice more for cultivating Meridians then Wind Arts with the drugs we're taking.

But more then that, we could wipe out all but 15 points of progress on a particularly bad roll on breakthrough attempts, so putting all our eggs in the physical basket is not a great idea. We should be attempting both physical and spiritual at the same time, not pretending we can attempt physical twice. We might be able to, but that strictly worse then trying both physical and spiritual, because one bad roll can end the first, while it take two to end the second.

You really aren't being completely honest here when you act like we have as good odds for a soonish breakthrough with your plan - we're moving successes from preparation for breakthrough to Zephyr art, 18 promised, with more six dice being rolled, for an average of 21 success less successes for our breakthrough preparations. That's not trivial.
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I really am not seeing how you come up with 21 less successes.
 
tenchifew said:
I really am not seeing how you come up with 21 less successes.
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Because clearly, when the last meridian is DC13, and you roll 34 39 dices (Talent 6+AS6+ Qi Foundation 9+ pill 3+ spirit stone 5+ lessons 3+ suyin 2) and get an average of 18.5 21 successes, it somehow means that 21-13=21?

I don't know.
 
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