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Warhammer Fantasy: Divided Loyalties - an Advisor's Quest

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chocolote12 said:
Any non no-canal choice we take is going to do this. We're just trying to figure out which will cost the least, in lives and money.
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Put like that, I'd actually... rather go with the scenario where Marienburg navy and docks aren't burnt to the ground.

Because, well, let's remember that:

1.) those ships and docks are going to be still doing a lot of trading with the Empire and the rest of the world, in the years to come; even if Marienburg loses out due to the canal, there will still be a ton of trade going through Marienburg anyway

2.) a thought that occurred to me recently; what about the Norscans? If Marienburg loses its navy, it becomes more vulnerable to Norscans, and the coast becomes more vulnerable too, if the Marienburg navy spends a good amount of time in keeping the north sea and coasts incidentally safe

The Norscans in the north sea. How much of a problem are they, for Marienburg, Nordland, and Ostland? And, whose navy tends to do a lot of anti-Norscan patrolling? How bad, exactly, could the break-the-blockade be for Marienburg? And what could the ripple effects be?

Would it likely be as picklepikkl said, or as EVA-Saiyajin said?
picklepikkl said:
Yeah. Breaking the blockade, let's recall, involves this:
BoneyM said:
The Empire is riddled with rivers, almost all of which reach the sea through Marienburg. This means the majority of the Empire's international trade goes through there. Trying to pivot to overland would be hugely difficult and in some cases impossible.

Breaking the blockade would most likely involve destroying their navy and the infrastructure that allows Marienburg to block the river, and probably anchoring a Dreadnought or five off the coast in case they get any funny ideas about rebuilding.
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Destroying their navy and a good chunk of their infrastructure, then placing them under dwarf guns until the canals exist. This is, let's be clear, complete naval subjugation. It's an existential threat to Marienburg just as much as the outright attempt to annex them would be.

For this reason, I favor [ ] They can make up for the loss in trade. No, it's not fair to the Karaz Ankor, but it lets us avoid a potentially very serious war and serves to bind the Empire more tightly to the Karaz Ankor, both of which are things we like. Also, like... the Karaz Ankor's money isn't really doing much. It's just sitting in vaults, mostly. Monetary stimulus time; let's put that currency to work.
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EVA-Saiyajin said:
Except, this is only if things go all the way to the end. They're not going to immediately go for violence, as I've said multiple times.
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I mean, BoneyM did say "would most likely involve..." so it probably would do a lot of damage to Marienburg's navy, so...

... On the other hand. The Dwarfs seem like the sort who if asked if they'd prefer battle or prefer to pay a lot of gold, would seriously think about the question, because they really love their gold so...

In the "The Karaz Ankor can pay for it" option, how exactly would the Empire be convincing the Dwarfs to pay? ... Actually, would just asking to take out some loans suffice? If they pay them back, well. Or would it be easier(ish) than usual, because Barak Varr is invested in this, and so...
 
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Deathbybunnies said:
They will not try again later, because later they will be unable to blockade the Empire. That's literally the entire point of this exercise for the Empire - to remove that leverage.

Marienburg stands to lose a lot of money from not being able to massively tariff goods entering and leaving the Empire, but it is not an existential threat - they will still be an extremely valuable position on one of the two main trade routes to the Empire. This is not an existential crisis to them, this is them not being able to dictate terms to the Empire anymore.
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Marienburg is perfectly capable of rebuilding its navy after the dwarves leave. That's the entire reason Barak Varr would have to "park a Dreadnought or five" off their shore. The dwarves can't blockade Marienburg forever. And once the canal is complete, Barak Varr has a vested interest in provoking future embargoes and allowing them to stay in place because they force more trade to take their canal!

Also, an embargo after the canal is in place is barely worth being called an embargo. The entire point of the canal is that the removes Marienburg's ability to exert force on the Empire by taxing trade through the river there.
 
Deathbybunnies said:
They will not try again later, because later they will be unable to blockade the Empire. That's literally the entire point of this exercise for the Empire - to remove that leverage.
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As the statements of the Chamberlain make pretty clear this isn't actually an Empire sponsored action nor was that its intent... The dwarves started the whole project to rake in more dosh and some of the provinces did I think join due to the same motivation but nobody there had any interest in destroying Marienburg or liberating the Empire from its influence. That is just the side-effect of the whole endeavour. I mean even we were surprised by that effect and we are involved in the project and a spy to boot.
 
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Vebyast said:
Marienburg is perfectly capable of rebuilding its navy after the dwarves leave. That's the entire reason Barak Varr would have to "park a Dreadnought or five" off their shore. The dwarves can't blockade Marienburg forever. And once the canal is complete, Barak Varr has a vested interest in provoking future embargoes and allowing them to stay in place because they force more trade to take their canal!

Also, an embargo after the canal is in place is barely worth being called an embargo. The entire point of the canal is that the removes Marienburg's ability to exert force on the Empire by taxing trade through the river there.
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...Okay, so you're suggesting that in the future Marienburg continues to embargo the Empire even after its entire source of leverage has been removed, thus meaning that it will accomplish nothing but losing them money? And you think that Barak Varr will somehow be able to provoke this despite having a low intrigue score and an incredibly obvious motive for doing so, in the event they were willing to do such a thing, which I do not believe they would be?

Politely, I think you are too invested in the argument and are now suggesting genuine nonsense.
 
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Humbaba said:
Not happy about it but it's the option that doesn't declare war on Marieburg in all but name,
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I will note once again that no war is being declared even if that's the route Chamberlain goes with. What does happen is that in response to Marienburg's threat of a blockade with an implicit promise of Ulthuan involving itself should the Empire object, Imperial diplomats say that in case of a blockade, they will have Karaz Ankor on their side, passing the buck back to the Marienburg and asking them whether they really want to try and blockade not only the Empire, but also Barak Varr. It's certainly escalation, but it's not a declaration of war in all but name.
 
TotallyNotEvil said:
Guys, let us not underestimate that the They Can Make Up For It option significantly weakens the Empire and the Karaz Ankor for at least five years.

An Empire whose muster currently consists of two provinces and Hochland, and a KA that's currently shoring up K8P and actively fighting for Karak Dum.

If anything at all goes wrong in that time, especially outside the provinces who are free, then things become seriously dicey.

[X] No, but they could help break the blockade
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Yes, the two empires will be economically weakened, but if the blockade turns into a war (which it easily could) how badly would they be weakened militarily and economically?

We're essentially accepting a certain small hit to prevent the chance of a much larger hit.

Also, preventing a direct conflict leaves open the possibility if further diplomacy to resolve the situation, and also improves the chances of working with Ulthuan on problems in the future. I want to keep those doors open.
 
Lupercal said:
What we call it really does not change the thrust of my post. I've been able to show the elites using media to drum up the support of the masses for a group identity and a hatred of the outsider earlier then your claim that that was a purely modern phenomenon. The onus is on you to disprove that, not quibble of the definition of state (but since you brought it up I'm of the anthropological and sociological opinion that anything larger then a tribe is a state, just not necessarily a modern nation-state). I assure you the people of Marienburg will not welcome a conquering imperial army with cheers and applause.
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There is support for group identity, but the question is how deep does it go? Sure the people of Marienburg will throw the odd rotten cabbage at the soldiers but is their love for the still very recent idea of and independent Marienburg so great that it could not be counteracted by say lowering their taxes and talking about the corrupt elites? That I doubt.

Empress Heidi would be uniquely suited to the strategy.
 
Slamu said:
As I understand it, Kragg's focus on his craft centers around arete, about making the best something he can, and that extends to making the best apprentice he can, and that to do that he needs the best material to work with so if he finds the perfect neophyte he'll teach them what he knows, but in this fallen and debased world he's more likely to have a Skaven hauling a wagon of gromril in front of him, apologize for all the grudges and then fall on the ground dead so Kragg doesn't have to kill the raki himself than come across as someone worthy of being taught by him. Is that a fair assessment?
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Shame that Ulgu doesn't have mind control spells. That would be funny prank.
 
I just can't understand how the Empire to Karaz Ankor conversation would go well if we choose the non blockade option.

Emperor: Hey Marienburg is threatening to block literally all of our riverine trade which will really hit us in the purse strings, could you, our ally compensate us for this grievous loss?

Thorgrim: Ummm, how is that an us problem? Also how did Marienburg, a city so vitally important to you, get independent again?

Emperor: 'Sweats' Well you see, they bribed us to let them go, and we allowed it. Now about that money your going to compensate us with.

Thorgrim: NO
 
TotallyNotEvil said:
If anything at all goes wrong in that time, especially outside the provinces who are free, then things become seriously dicey.
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True.
On the other hand, if the elves start backing Marianburg, helping break the blockade could very well become the start of a new war of the beard, which will be the last war, an end of time before its time.

[X] They can make up for the loss in trade.
 
[X] No, but they could help break the blockade

There'll be plenty of time for Marienburg to adjust to new information changing their bargaining position, fleets don't gather and move out on a dime, and even before they start being outfitted there'll be plenty of talk about an expedition being possible. If they don't change their tune after having the chance to see flop, turn, and the river. Then they're getting their infrastructure wrecked. If they were that intransigent though, I expect them to escalate as hard as thye can regardless of whether or not the empire ignores them.
 
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[X] They can make up for the loss in trade

Going for a blockade sounds like creating a great opportunity for other parties to escalate things into open war. Ulthuan in general won't support Marienburg in an offensive war, but just by having the Barak Varr navy in the same area as a major Ulthuan-supported port is ripe for escalation. We just got warned about Tzeentch in a recent update, and it could only take one unfortunate incident to spark outright war. I don't want to try for brinkmanship when there are multiple parties (Marienburg itself, for example) that would benefit from pushing things over the edge.
 
[X] No, but they could help break the blockade

I seriously don't like the vibes Marienburg is giving with this. Also I feel like they are bluffing on Elves backing them.
 
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