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I'm not exactly a huge proponent of the amazing power of free markets and the invisible hand, but I do feel like I should point out that once the Empire has an alternative to Marienburg, Marienburg trying to blockade the river will suddenly hurt them far more than it does the Empire, and so the economic incentives on their part to do these sorts of hi-jinks will no longer exist.
This too. I'm just saying that even if Marienburg tries to blockade the Empire again, the stated reasoning of "Let's smash their navy so they can never blockade us again!" makes no sense. Double un-sense.
 
  1. Marienburg will rebuild its navy quickly once Barak Varr's navy leaves.
  2. Future blockades by Marienburg force trade to go through Barak Varr's canal, which makes Barak Varr money.
  3. Barak Varr will pull its dreadnoughts out of Marienburg the instant the canal is complete specifically to allow them to rebuild their navy and set another blockade.
Yes, I understand what you're saying. I'm saying that Marienburg will have no reason to enact a second blockade because, as you yourself acknowledge, the trade will just go through Barak Varr instead. They would be cutting themselves off from their main source of trade for no gain.

This too. I'm just saying that even if Marienburg tries to blockade the Empire again, the stated reasoning of "Let's smash their navy so they can never blockade us again!" makes no sense. Double un-sense.
They can't blockade us again, because the existence of the Barak Varr route means it's no longer a blockade, it's just an inconvenience
 
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You say as if a full scale naval war wouldn't be at least as damaging.
Marienburg can back off at any time. If they don't, then I'm not terribly worried about the Empire's entire navy + ironclads and dreadnoughts against Marienburg. They will get completely smashed.

I don't think anything but their biggest ships could even threaten an ironclad.

Make The Dwarfs Pay For It makes them probably secure overland routes with their own manpower. Barak Varr is strong, and it's navy is not necessary for the current overland conflicts the KA is waging.
 
Yes, I understand what you're saying. I'm saying that Marienburg will have no reason to enact a second blockade because, as you yourself acknowledge, the trade will just go through Barak Varr instead. They would be cutting themselves off from their main source of trade for no gain.
So why are you saying that we need to set fire to their military to make sure they can't enact another blockade? They already can't and won't.
 
Actually, I wonder. The construction schedule of the canal.

How much would it be affected by Barak Varr's dreadnoughts and navy being shifted around from patrolling the southern coasts and the rivers of the Border Princes to instead saber-rattle-or-actually-blockade-break at Marienburg, or from the Karaz Ankor chipping in to help support the Empire and re-arranging the alternate routes for crucial supplies?

That is, is the canal going to be slowed down or affected, by what we pick here? And if so, by how much/how long? Do we have any ideas or estimates?

No, the timeline of the canal won't be changed by the choices here.
 
No one wants War of Vengeance 2. Marienburg is trying to strongarm the empire, I doubt the elves would get involved in the Empire merely breaking a blockade that was unilaterally imposed on them.

Making the dwarves pay for part of the blockade's costs and provide overland routes (so spending precious dwarf power) leaves both Empire and KA terribly overextended for a minimum of five years, possibly and easily more than that.
Nobody wanted World War I either, but tense international standoffs have a way of spiraling out of control. And once things get going, once some nervous Marienburg gunner fires on a Dwarven ship, nobody at that point will be able to stop the avalanche.

I want to preserve the possibility of diplomacy and working with the Elves in the future, and of talking Marienburg into standing down when they see their embargo isn't going to accomplish anything.

I'd rather the Dwarves and Empire be economically hurting but avoid war for sure and keep their unengaged military forces available for dealing with any real threats that arise, like orcs and chaos. The Empire in particular is already dangerously committed militarily, a war with Marienburg would leave them completely unable to respond on a sudden new front.
 
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So why are you saying that we need to set fire to their military to make sure they can't enact another blockade? They already can't and won't.
We need to do it this time so that they can't do it for the next 5 years? The part of the military that counts as "infrastructure and navy that could prevent ships from travelling to the Empire", at least.
 
Nobody wanted World War I either, but tense international standoffs have a way of spiraling out of control. And once things get going, once some nervous Marienburg gunner fires on a Dwarven ship, nobody at that point will be able to stop the avalanche.

I want to preserve the possibility of diplomacy and working with the Elves in the future, and of talking Marienburg into standing down when they see their embargo isn't going to accomplish anything.

I'd rather the Dwarves and Empire be economically hurting but avoid war for sure and keep their unengaged military forces available for dealing with any real threats that arise, like orcs and chaos.

Actually going by the books plenty of people wanted the War of Vengeance initially, on both sides. They thought they could win. Now they know the only winners will be the thirsting gods and maybe the orcs on the ruins.
 
Expecting this could somehow escalate into the War of the Beard MKII... seems extremely farfetched. The elves's aren't saying anything right now because ambiguity gives them the greatest leverage for little current cost. Even if they're willing to go to the wall for some human merchants to have the ability to build another villa. They're going to clarify that real quick once they realize what's going on so that the state of the game can be made apparent before the Dwarf's have invested too much in prepping the fleet and are no longer willing to back down.
 
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"Making up for the loss in trade" means a substantial increase in economic cooperation between the Karaz Ankor and the Empire. That's a reason to vote for that plan all by itself.
We need to do it this time so that they can't do it for the next 5 years?
Making it so their actions can't hurt is is better than making it so they can't take those actions.

Also, you're saying that you want to tie up a significant chunk of Barak Varr's navy for the next five years. I doubt that that's going to be a safe thing to do; they wouldn't build all of those dreadnoughts if they didn't have a use for them, and they're going to be making sacrifices elsewhere to tie down Marienburg.
 
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If the Marienburgers are stupid enough to not back off when the threat of Barak Varr comes, then they deserve what would happen next.


I have to say I think some here are more than a bit to optimistic and equal Barak Varr intervention into a massive automatic win... Marienburg isn't some backwater village unable to defend itself but the richest city in the Old World with a global naval empire, centuries of experience in naval warfare, their own wizards specialized in water based wizardry, one of the centres of worship of Mannan (the god of the sea) and lastly home to HE. I mean even without magic or divine assistance historically speaking a ship tends to lose against land based artillery and taking fortified position from the sea tends to be a risky manoeuvre at best. Ironclads are not invincible and whatever ships the empire and co send alongside them even less. Plus the nearest dwarf port is Barak Varr and other friendly ports also aren't that near either which should complicate matters even further.
 
Actually going by the books plenty of people wanted the War of Vengeance initially, on both sides. They thought they could win. Now they know the only winners will be the thirsting gods and maybe the orcs on the ruins.
Yeah, jingoist fools are always a thing. It's just a question of whether they're numerous enough to have political power at any given point in time.
 
Yeah, but, uh... why would she lie to him?

Like, the "spin Marienburg's opposition as an elf ploy" option is, explicitly, Mathilde deceiving the dwarves in order to get them to fight by the Empire's side against Marienburg. I acknowledge that this is a lie. But why on Earth would Mathilde tell the Chamberlain an option she doesn't think would work?
Everyone keeps going on that Mathilde is bad at diplomacy. Maybe I have been wrong in thinking that she's actually decent at it, and therefore this option is a fault caused by her incapacity for diplomacy.
 
Ultra dumb idea that I only bring up because I know that if I won't, no one else will:

If we used necromancy to make undead labour, how much faster could we complete the canal? Because if we reduced that, we could heavily restrict the burden put on both the Empire and the Karaks by paying the loss in trade.
 
So why are you saying that we need to set fire to their military to make sure they can't enact another blockade? They already can't and won't.
But, you were the one saying that?
Sitting some ships on them is treating a symptom. They'll just rebuild and try again later.
The whole point was that they can't rebuild and try again until the canal is in place and then trying to do that would be stupid. Or did you mean something else?
 
For my part, I think we ought to try and do the middle path with the Empire and the Karaz Ankor working together. They'll share the work and the reward.
 
Okay, so. From our resident High Priestess of Ranald, we know that one of the potential plates our god has spinning is the assimilation of Marienburg into the Empire, through which he can get Ranald the Dealer officially recognized as a god of trade.

As such, and especially with his top agent being so highly placed in the Empire, it's reasonable to suggest that Ranald will be doing a few nudges here and there to get things to line up in His favor.

So, what I'm saying is... take the gamble, and have faith. Tell Marienburg that the Empire has the backing of Barak Varr, and dare them to call our bluff, because the game was rigged from the start.
 
Ultra dumb idea that I only bring up because I know that if I won't, no one else will:

If we used necromancy to make undead labour, how much faster could we complete the canal? Because if we reduced that, we could heavily restrict the burden put on both the Empire and the Karaks by paying the loss in trade.

We would get killed by the colleges for necromancy, by the empire for necromancy and by the dwarves for necromancy and using substandard labour/techniques resulting in a shoddy end-product.
 
Everyone keeps going on that Mathilde is bad at diplomacy. Maybe I have been wrong in thinking that she's actually decent at it, and therefore this option is a fault caused by her incapacity for diplomacy.

In fairness, you are right, she is better than most people... She is just not as good at it as she is in herother stats, and also not as good as high end diplomats and most not nepotism chosen diplomacy advisors of areas more hospitable than Stirland.
 
What? Having the Karaz Ankor prop up the Empire shows them that all of their money is useless. That's the biggest possible flex. Sitting some ships on them is treating a symptom. They'll just rebuild and try again later. Showing them that their money is useless, and then taking that money away from them, destroys them completely.
In your original post, you claimed that if we break their navy, they'll just "rebuild and try again later". This whole argument started with me saying no, they can't try again later, they can't blockade the Empire because they can't block the Barak Varr route.

"Making up for the loss in trade" means a substantial increase in economic cooperation between the Karaz Ankor and the Empire. That's a reason to vote for that plan all by itself.
Making it so their actions can't hurt is is better than making it so they can't take those actions.

Also, you're saying that you want to tie up a significant chunk of Barak Varr's navy for the next five years. I doubt that that's going to be a safe thing to do; they wouldn't build all of those dreadnoughts if they didn't have a use for them, and they're going to be making sacrifices elsewhere to tie down Marienburg.
No, it explicitly means the Karaz Ankor just gives the Empire money, not an increase in trade.

The Barak Varr Navy can damn well decide what they want to do with their own navy, but no, they don't need to sit their whole navy there afterwards, just a few ships to prevent them from rebuilding the relevant blockading infrastructure and ships.
 
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