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Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition

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Hunter531 said:
TL;DR: Why bother making the slaves sapient when you can use sapient overseers instead? How would a brainwashed sapient Gana be all that worse off compared to a common citizen of Nod? Why talk about the moral issues of working with Nod when there's not a damn thing we can do about it?
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Because how well the slaves can follow the overseers orders is at least partially contingent on how intelligent they are, and because as NOD experiences an even more pronounced labor crunch than us, the odds of Gana filling more and more varied roles, including foot soldiers only increases. And if we're taking the argument that ostensibly any heavily indoctrinated Brotherhood citizen is essentially a servitor who's lot is all about serving the Warlord and/or NOD's inner circle regardless... I suppose I'm sentimental enough to believe a creator has a duty of care- and that industrially manufacturing sapients to fill in the short fall resulting from the simple fact most humans don't want to bring a new life into such a degraded and degrading world is just to embrace the same driving forces that have despoiled the world and killed billions. At that point the Warlords are just pretty much manufacturing people to use as grist for the warmachines they derive their legitimacy from, and that they are desperate to ensure don't get further outcompeted by GDI.

As for what I want us to do? I want us to be mindful of some of where people in setting's misgivings over working more closely with some of the Warlords. Working with people out of necessity can easily become working with people out of convenience. That seems as much one of GDI's past crimes as any other given Marcion and other past GDI patsies.
 
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Lightwhispers said:
So, fortunately the wonderful Derpmind built the spreadsheet behind the Probability Array to pretty easily change over to 2d50s, so here is what this turn looks like using 2d50s:
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A fancy new dice array deserves a fancy new planquest dice calculator. Now with proper attribution, because I didn't think of that the first time I made it and it's been bugging me ever since. Bah!

P.S. Again, my thanks to Lightwhispers for keping the Array going.
 
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[X] Plan Meta but wider spread
-[X] Infrastructure (5/5 dice, +27 bonus, 85R)
--[X] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 7) 93/250 (2 dice, 40R)
--[X] Rail Network Construction Campaigns (Phase 6) 108/245 (2 dice, 30R)
--[X] Advanced Tunnel Borer Development 0/80 (1 die, 15R)
-[X] Heavy Industry (5/5 dice, +2 Free Dice, +34 bonus, 135R)
--[X] Second Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants (Phase 4) 117/270 (2 dice, 40R)
--[X] North Boston Chip Fabricator (Phase 5) 406/1805 (2 dice +1 Free die, 45R)
--[X] Second Generation Repulsorplate Factories 365/525 (1 die +1 Free die 50R)
-[X] Light and Chemical Industry (4/4 dice, +29 bonus, 110R)
--[X] Bergen Superconductor Foundry (Phase 4) 523/610 (3 dice, 90R)
--[X] High Energy Capacitators Development 0/60 (1 dice, 20R)
-[X] Agriculture (6/6 dice, +29 bonus, 65R)
--[X] Reforestation Campaign Preparations (Phase 1) 737/805 (1 die, 5R)
--[X] Spider Cotton Plantations (Phase 3) 60/160 (1 die, 15R)
--[X] Tarberry Plantations (Phase 3) (1 die, 10R)
--[X] Strategic Food Stockpile (Phase 5) (1 die, 10R)
--[X] Organ Farming Programs 0/120 (1 die, 10R)
--[X] Laboratory Meat Deployment (Phase 1) 0/170 (1 die, 15R)
-[X] Tiberium (7/7 dice + AA, +39 bonus, 210R)
--[X] Red Zone Containment Lines (Stage 6) 54/180 (1 die, 25R)
--[X] Improved Tiberium Containment Facilities (Stage 2) 11/90 (1 die, 20R)
--[X] Enhanced Harvest Tiberium Spikes 145/180 (AA die, 20R)
--[X] Secure Yellow Zones (Stage 1) 0/300 (2 dice, 50R)
--[X] Coordinated Abatement Programs (Phase 3) 93/175 (1 die, 25R)
--[X] Xenotech Tiberium Refinement Development 0/180 (2 dice, 70R)
-[X] Orbital (7/7 dice +EREWHON!, +34 bonus, 160R)
--[X] GDSS Columbia Bay (High Density Housing) 0/295 (2 dice, 40R)
--[X] GDSS Shala (Phase 5) 868/975 (2 dice, 40R)
--[X] GDSS Shala Bay (Species Restoration Bay) 0/255 (1 die +EREWHON!, 40R)
--[X] Lunar Mining Projects 0/185 (2 dice, 40R)
-[X] Services (4/4 dice, +3 Free Dice, +35 bonus, 225R)
--[X] Cosmetic Biosculpting 184/345 (1 die, 30R)
--[X] Primitive Prototype Portal Construction 279/400 (1 Free die, 100R)
--[X] Civil Sensory Augmentics Development 0/120 (1 die, 20R)
--[X] Civil Prosthetics Development 0/120 (1 Free die, 20R)
--[X] Biowarfare Countermeasures Development 0/40 (1 die, 15R)
--[X] Drone Control Hub Development 0/180 (1 die +1 Free die, 40R)
-[X] Military (7/7 dice, +2 Free dice, +31 bonus, 170R, -30R)
--[X] Department of Refits (1 die, -30R)
--[X] Advanced Articulation Systems 0/60 (1 die, 15R)
--[X] Orca Wingmen Drone Deployment (Phase 2) 196/215 (1 die, 20R)
--[X] NovaHawk Development 0/40 (1 die, 15R)
--[X] Ground Forces Zone Armor (Set 2) (Phase 1) 16/285 (1 die +1 Free die, 40R)
--[X] Island Class Assault Ships 70/135 (1 die, 25R)
--[X] Modular Rapid Assembly Prototype Factory 102/265 (1 die, 20R)
--[X] Particle Shield Development 0/120 (1 Free die, 25R)
-[X] Bureaucracy (4/4 dice, +29 bonus)
--[X] Administrative Assistance (2 dice) (Tiberium)
--[X] Transfer Funding to InOps (1 die, -60R)
--[X] Predictive Modeling Management (1 die)

1240/1275 Resources, (-90 for Dept of Refits & InOps)

[X] Plan Attempting to Brace for Impact
[X] Plan: Physiotherapy
[X] Plan Give Me Science!
 
Dmol8 said:
@Ithillid please threadmark this one. And I guess remove the previous one from the threadmarks.
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@Ithillid Please don't threadmark that post. There's no need for that. Lightwhispers can just include the link to the anydice program in his "Lightwhispers Probability Array", which is already threadmarked, after the Predictive Modeling Management goes through. We have plenty of extra Informational threadmarks as is.
 
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On some level I think I'm going to miss all those "your d100 rolled a 92" nice surprises more than I'll anti-miss all those "your d100 rolled an 8."

But then, I love nice surprises and am fairly hardened against nasty surprises.

Ah, well. End of an era.

qazcdewsx said:
@Shadows
If doing predictive modelling management means that we're rolling 2d50's instead of d100's it might be worth moving a couple dice around on your plan. I think 2d50 + Erewhon has a 95.31% chance of completing Shala. If you think that's good enough then the easiest change to make would probably be put Erewhon on Shala and a free dice on the species bay.
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I really don't want to risk Shala not finishing, because it could throw our whole build strategy out of gear to have to wait until 2064Q3 to even start work on the second-generation habitat.

Sa'kage said:
While i am generally against idea of a huge liquid tiberium complex untill we have a much better tech for handling it, it should be noted that since most of humanity lives in the giant arciologies mega cities and with just so few of them left there exist several miles of just empty blue zone and yellow zone areas.

Finding an empty spot to build a megacomplex shouldn't be that hard. Just the issue of liquid explosions having a huge tendency to go really big.

The visitors also seem to be using a lot of liquid tiberium in their stuff as well, which may be a solid indication that it is a lot better then solid tiberium. With the note that Kane did call them a tiberium drug cult, so it might be because they wanna insert liquid tiberium into their smoothies rather then because it's more efficient.

I do support smaller liquid tiberium facilities nearbye red zones though, because we do need to start handling it, so we can do something about all of it underground, before it properly explodes on us.
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Personally, I don't want one megacomplex for handling all liquid tiberium in the world, but I do think we would be better off having one in each Blue Zone.

For instance, in BZ-2 you might place it near the area where the border offensives are going on, somewhere west of Chicago. If a vein mine in, say, West Virginia strikes liquid tiberium, you ship the liquid T west, moving AWAY from most major populated areas, towards the processing plant.
 
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Simon_Jester said:
On some level I think I'm going to miss all those "your d100 rolled a 92" nice surprises more than I'll anti-miss all those "your d100 rolled an 8."

But then, I love nice surprises and am fairly hardened against nasty surprises.

Ah, well. End of an era.


I really don't want to risk Shala not finishing, because it could throw our whole build strategy out of gear to have to wait until 2064Q3 to even start work on the second-generation habitat.


Personally, I don't want one megacomplex for handling all liquid tiberium in the world, but I do think we would be better off having one in each Blue Zone.

For instance, in BZ-2 you might place it near the area where the border offensives are going on, somewhere west of Chicago. If a vein mine in, say, West Virginia strikes liquid tiberium, you ship the liquid T west, moving AWAY from most major populated areas, towards the processing plant.
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I really don't think that this technology is gonna do anything major for safely mining/extracting liquid tiberium. Vein mines striking liquid tiberium is still gonna be explosive. The primary purpose of this technology is not safe extraction and disposal, you get my point?
 
So I've only heard this secondhand, but word is, Predictive Modeling Management will apply to rolls this turn. So, using Lightwhisper's Array, here's how that'll look for Plan Chippin' In:

[] Plan Chippin' In
-[] Infrastructure (5/5 Dice, +27 bonus, 95R)
--[] Advanced Tunnel Borer Development (0/80) 1 die 15R 68% < 80%
--[] Offshore Tiberium Harvester Stations (Phase 4) (0/150) 2 dice 40R 68% < 76%
--[] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 7) (93/250) 2 dice 40R 63% < 69%
-[] Heavy Industry (5/5 Dice + 3 FD, +34 bonus, 150R)
--[] North Boston Chip Fabricator (Phase 5) (406/1805) 4 dice 60R
--[] Second Generation Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants (Phase 4) 117/270 2 dice 40R 77% < 86%
--[] Second Generation Repulsorplate Factories (365/525) 2 dice 50R 72% < 80%
-[] Light Industry (4/4 Dice, +24 bonus, 110R)
--[] Bergen Superconductor Foundry (Phase 4) (523/610) 3 dice 90R 100%
--[] High Energy Capacitors Development (0/60) 1 die 20R 90% < 98%
-[] Agriculture (6/6 Dice, +29 bonus, 40R)
--[] Reforestation Campaign Preparations (Phase 1) (737/805) 4 dice 20R 100%
--[] Strategic Food Stockpile Construction (Phase 5) (78/170) 1 dice 10R 53% < 57%
--[] Organ Farming Programs (0/120) 1 dice 10R 30% > 19%
-[] Tiberium (7 Dice, +39 bonus, 190R)
--[] Enhanced Harvest Tiberium Spikes (145/180) 1 dice 20R 100% -5PS
--[] Coordinated Abatement Programs (Phase 3) (93/175) 1 dice 25R 72% < 86%
--[] Xenotech Tiberium Refinery Development (Tech) (New) (0/180) 3 dice 105R 98% < 100%
--[] Liquid Tiberium Refining Development (Tech) (New) 0/180 2 dice 40R 72% < 80%
-[] Orbital (7/7 dice + 2 FD + Erewhon, +34 bonus, 200R)
--[] Spaceport Bay (0/295) 4 dice 80R 91% < 98%
--[] Species Restoration Bay (Stage 1) (0/255) 3+E dice 60R 91% < 98%
--[] GDSS Shala (868/975) 2 dice 40R 99% < 100%
-[] Services (4/4 Dice, +32 bonus, 170R)
--[] Primitive Prototype Portal Construction (279/400) 1 dice 100R 40% > 33%
--[] Cosmetic Biosculpting (194/345) 1 dice 30R 5% > 1%
--[] Civil Sensory Augmentics Development (0/120) 1 dice 20R 36% > 27%
--[] Civil Prosthetics Development (0/120) 1 dice 20R 36% > 27%
-[] Military (7/7 dice + 1FD + AA, +31 bonus, 190 R)
--[] Department of Refits -1 Mil die -30 RpT auto
--[] Binary Propellant Exploration (0/60) 1 dice 10R 92% < 99%
--[] Advanced Armor Composites (0/80) 1 dice 15R 72% < 85%
--[] Orca Wingmen Drone Deployment (Phase 2) (196/215) AA die 20R 97% < 100%
--[] Particle Shield Development (0/120) 2 dice 25R 95% < 99%
--[] Governor-A Deployment (Refits) (0/350) 1 dice 20R
--[] Island-Class Assault Ship Deployment (70/135) 1 dice 25R 82% < 94%
--[] Modular Rapid Assembly Prototype Factory (102/265) 1 die 20R
-[] Bureaucracy (4 Dice, +29 bonus)
--[] Predictive Modeling Management (-10 Capital Goods)
--[] Transfer Funding to InOps (-60R)
--[] Administrative Assistance (Military)

Looking this over, I don't believe any changes are warranted. And it's really late in the vote anyways.

The only thing we don't know yet is how crits will happen now. I believe crit fails will only happen if two d50s on a project roll a 1, but for crits? Maybe two d50s that roll 46 or higher, since that has a 1% chance?
 
Well since we are already getting ready for this turn to be finished with voting: Hey @Ithillid since I'm one of the people that do a mathpost every turn do we get a bonus for each die in the 2d50 or just for each Die invested into the action?
 
Derpmind said:
Given how much infighting Nod does, they almost certainly have the ability to defeat last-gen stealth field generators. But if it's anything similar to GDI's anti-stealth tech, it's not perfect and has limitations. Meaning, this could give GDI its own stealthed forces. Which would be pretty cool! Probably not that impactful on a strategic level, though, not at this level. Long term, of course, this would improve over time as we invest in it.
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Huh, your comment has me thinking it might actually be impactful strategically from a threat in being perspective. We know Nod overall and individually has serious problems keeping up with GDI economically, so even if they do already have anti-stealth tech this would likely still force a shift in their overall production if they need to start worrying about stealthed GDI tanks or aircraft.

And maybe someday we figure out how to have it apply through re-entry and cut any warning of orbital drop forces down dramatically 😍
 
@Derpmind already did her lookover of new military projects, but I'm still going to do my own, because I have some different thoughts, and I'm also going to be looking at some existing projects and how they interact, or at least how I think they will.

In fact I'm going to start there, because Microfusion Cell Laboratories are a key development to making any of this shit work, and these are only experimental. We need this lab to make anything close to mass production viable. Energy shields and energy weapons and hover plates are not power cheap, and as they get more powerful they're going to want more power. We can try to limit the power draw, but frankly that seems to be missing the point. And all that ignores the many, many powerful and non military applications of a fusion plant the size of a couch. The labor saving possibilities alone make it worthwhile.

Similarly, the last phase of U-Series Alloy Foundries are also important. Fancy STU armor is of limited use if the vehicle frame can't take the kinetic transfer. Current U-Series work on ships because they're so close to being buildings in the first place. For something on the scale of an APC or tank? Nothin' doin'. And again, that's solely focused on military applications. They're even more valuable to the economic sector. Sure, the up front reward is underwhelming, but it's pretty explicitly gating the good stuff. Yes Boston is important and needs to be done soon, but it's a comparatively small project. I strongly urge finding a way to squeeze it in.

Anyway, now on to the new military stuff.

I'm more entused by Stealth Field Generator Development then Derp was. I view it as finally bridging a capability gap. Sure, we're not going to be as good as Nod is at this stuff, but that's fine. Just the thought of GDI moving its hordes of metal under cover of a stealth field should strike fear in the hearts of Nod's Leadership and make them move more carefully. Sure, on the practical end I imagine we're not going to be equipping a lot of... anything with these, but that it exists at all means the battlefield has to be approached more carefully. Plus, this seems to be something the Scrin don't have. Anything we can have over the alien bastards is worth it.

Air Force more wants the Novahawk over Thunderbolt II Missile Development, and I don't blame them. Lasers can do their job. Plus I believe the Tib Core Missile Seeker Analysis should be done first, to see if it improves the missiles further. Still, neither is all that exciting right now. I think they're a next year thing.

Advanced Armor Composites are critical. Yes, I know I was saying that they'd be limited without the last Alloy Foundry. That is true. Doesn't change the fact the material science is foundational in basically everything. We want as much information about this stuff as we can get. Think about how much weight we could save on a space station, and how much safer it could be, with exterior panels derived from this stuff. How much safer and Tiberium resistant our archologies could be. And of course, how much safer our pilots, tank crews, and Zone Armor troopers could be. It is phenomenally important, even if it will be some time before it achieves it's full potential. I am very glad the currently winning plan is working on it this turn.

Conversely, I'm not as excited by Particle Shield Development. I believe it when they say it's a quantum leap forward in shield technology. I'll also bet it's a similar leap in power and STU consumption. Without Microfusion Cells, what we can put these things on is sharply limited. And with the current STU stocks and not knowing how many more we can get... its cost is steep. I'm sure they're worth it, I just have no idea when we can afford to deploy them.

Advanced Articulation Systems and Fast Twitch Myomers Development are excellent companion projects. Personally I see one as unlocking the next generation of Power Armor and the other the next generation of Mechs. However, doing both is a no brainer, they strongly play into each other. I've no doubt they'll have very useful industrial applications, and might help further refine GDI prosthetics. I see them as more generally useful then Repulsorplates even. Better at traversing a Tiberium field then our usual harvesters, likely far less power and STU hungry then a hover vehicle. There's a reason the Scrin preferred a mix of the two.

That leaves Phased Plasma Weapons Development. It's a good project, good for the Steel Talons. But right now they have a lot of very good projects. And honestly, this one is still very good, it's just the least good of a pile of great projects. If we get on with Military Particle Beam Development that changes, but right now it's a toss up on whether to do this before or after starting the USGV roll out.

So from this list, in the military section I'd prioritize Advanced Armor Composites, followed by Advanced Articulation Systems and Fast Twitch Myomers and last Stealth Field Generators. These are the new thimgs to get moving on while working through existing commitments and tech that's in danger of timing out.
 
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edofthesquid said:
Huh, your comment has me thinking it might actually be impactful strategically from a threat in being perspective. We know Nod overall and individually has serious problems keeping up with GDI economically, so even if they do already have anti-stealth tech this would likely still force a shift in their overall production if they need to start worrying about stealthed GDI tanks or aircraft.
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I'd expect that Nod has already rolled out anti stealth tech anywhere they have something important. Nod is comprised of a number of different warlords and they do fight each other sometimes, see Stahl deposing Gideon. Someone without stealth detectors would be incredibly vulnerable to being attacked by there rivals. GDI getting stealthed units might mean they'd need more of it but I don't think it would cause a substantial shift in production.
 
Vehrec said:
I really don't think that this technology is gonna do anything major for safely mining/extracting liquid tiberium. Vein mines striking liquid tiberium is still gonna be explosive. The primary purpose of this technology is not safe extraction and disposal, you get my point?
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I'm not saying it'll make things easier.

But we've already had other vein mines 'strike' liquid tiberium; the Mount Belaya explosion is explicitly a failure mode caused by the miners hitting a pocket unexpectedly. We already have some limited means of extracting liquid tiberium from a place where we do not want for it to be. It's not anywhere near as safe or reliable as we'd like, but if we find it, we CAN somehow remove it from that place and put it in a bottle or something. After all, scientists work with samples, and we must be getting them from somewhere.

So we can already- nervously and with difficulty- move liquid tiberium around.

And if we can build a facility that turns liquid tiberium into... basically anything that isn't liquid tiberium, then that's a good thing. I'm pretty sure the refinery tech will at least do that? Otherwise it's not really a "refinery" in the vocabulary this game seems to use, is it?

Vehrec said:
I think that lunar mining is a dangerous distraction with that 20k housing promise we made. True, we can't do a lot of progress on that front right this moment, but...
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Choosing to do a little of it right now wouldn't be an irresponsible move as long as Shala completes, but we'll have a lot else to do very soon because in 2064Q2 we will hopefully be starting up the second generation habitat. Yeah.

Nottheunmaker said:
In fact I'm going to start there, because Microfusion Cell Laboratories are a key development to making any of this shit work, and these are only experimental. We need this lab to make anything close to mass production viable. Energy shields and energy weapons and hover plates are not power cheap, and as they get more powerful they're going to want more power. We can try to limit the power draw, but frankly that seems to be missing the point. And all that ignores the many, many powerful and non military applications of a fusion plant the size of a couch. The labor saving possibilities alone make it worthwhile.
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I may be misunderstanding, but I think microfusion cells actually have a bit of a problem in that their peak size and power output is too small in practice for many of these applications. If you want to power an energy shield that can withstand tank-scale plasma bolts because you're trying to protect a tank with it, then you may well not be able to do that with microfusion.

I'm not 100% clear on where the limits are with this, but in the past Ithillid has cautioned us that microfusion may not transform quite as many applications as you expect, even given the availability of the needed STUs.

Similarly, the last phase of U-Series Alloy Foundries are also important. Fancy STU armor is of limited use if the vehicle frame can't take the kinetic transfer. Current U-Series work on ships because they're so close to being buildings in the first place.
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Canonically, we've already got the full benefits of this. U-Series Alloy Foundries Phase 6 is about manufacturing some specific alloys for tiberium processing and so on; it's the result of us getting a "Visitor-tech blades" project that was additional to our "Visitor-tech structural alloys" project that only gave us Phases 1-5.

So insofar as we need STU-based structural alloys for tanks or whatever, we have them, and the last phase of the foundries won't make a lot of difference except possibly making those structural alloys just a bit cheaper. It certainly isn't a problem that we haven't built those

I don't think it's accurate to represent a 400-point project as "comparatively small" even when it's stacked up against an 1800-point project. That's several dice worth of effort.

Conversely, I'm not as excited by Particle Shield Development. I believe it when they say it's a quantum leap forward in shield technology. I'll also bet it's a similar leap in power and STU consumption. Without Microfusion Cells, what we can put these things on is sharply limited. And with the current STU stocks and not knowing how many more we can get... its cost is steep. I'm sure they're worth it, I just have no idea when we can afford to deploy them.
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The thing is, if we develop the tech, we can design future systems with the limitations in mind. Our engineers will know what they can and cannot build and power without a microfusion cell, even if microfusion cells aren't in mass production. That's going to be important.
 
Derpmind said:
A fancy new dice array deserves a fancy new planquest dice calculator. Now with proper attribution, because I didn't think of that the first time I made it and it's been bugging me ever since. Bah!

P.S. Again, my thanks to Lightwhispers for keping the Array going.
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And thanks for the Anydice work!
Derpmind said:
The only thing we don't know yet is how crits will happen now. I believe crit fails will only happen if two d50s on a project roll a 1, but for crits? Maybe two d50s that roll 46 or higher, since that has a 1% chance?
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No word on the exact method, but I imagine it will either be "if there's a 50, roll a d2 and it's a crit on a 2" or "if there's a 50, check to see if the paired die is even" (or odd, either works).
Dmol8 said:
Well since we are already getting ready for this turn to be finished with voting: Hey @Ithillid since I'm one of the people that do a mathpost every turn do we get a bonus for each die in the 2d50 or just for each Die invested into the action?
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Each Die invested. Otherwise PMM would be a massively gamebreaking change.
 
Frankly, looking at these numbers I think PMM is the single best move we could make. I had no idea it was going to be this good for our probabilities.
 
qazcdewsx said:
I'd expect that Nod has already rolled out anti stealth tech anywhere they have something important. Nod is comprised of a number of different warlords and they do fight each other sometimes, see Stahl deposing Gideon. Someone without stealth detectors would be incredibly vulnerable to being attacked by there rivals. GDI getting stealthed units might mean they'd need more of it but I don't think it would cause a substantial shift in production.
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It's likely to change where and how Nod needs to deploy counter-stealth technology. In a rival Nod-on-Nod conflict a lot of the fighting would be aimed at decapitation strikes, because you want to take over a rival warlord's operations, not slaughter all their followers. To deal with GDI suddenly futzing around with crude stealth vehicles and things, they'd need to deploy across much wider areas and keep up a continuous sensor watch rather than just patrols that can be reinforced when tensions with rival Nod warlords are high.

It would make things significantly more difficult and might very well force greater overall total use of counter-stealth, especially since they still need to guard against rival Nod backstabs at the same time.

MSH said:
Frankly, looking at these numbers I think PMM is the single best move we could make. I had no idea it was going to be this good for our probabilities.
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Switching from d100 to 2d50 is good for the success probability of anything that has a 51% or higher chance of success with d100. s, because the "we might get unlucky and roll a 7" option is less probable now.

It's correspondingly and equally bad for the success probability of anything that has a 49% or lower chance of success with d100's, because the "we might get lucky and roll a 93" option is less probable now.
 
Simon_Jester said:
Switching from d100 to 2d50 is good for the success probability of anything that has a 51% or higher chance of success with d100. s, because the "we might get unlucky and roll a 7" option is less probable now.

It's correspondingly and equally bad for the success probability of anything that has a 49% or lower chance of success with d100's, because the "we might get lucky and roll a 93" option is less probable now.
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We do the former the vast majority of the time, so it's almost pure benefit.
 
MSH said:
We do the former the vast majority of the time, so it's almost pure benefit.
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There are a lot of projects for which it makes sense to add just enough dice to have, say, a 33% chance of completion and then do one more die the next turn if necessary. That option now doesn't work as well. It would take a pretty deep dive into the dice mechanics to say for sure how likely things are to work out in our favor; a lot depends on context.

Another big factor is which projects we want but can wait a quarter for if it means being dice-efficient, versus which projects we feel are ride-or-die NOW NOW NOW emergencies.
 
Derpmind said:
So I've only heard this secondhand, but word is, Predictive Modeling Management will apply to rolls this turn. So, using Lightwhisper's Array, here's how that'll look for Plan Chippin' In:

[] Plan Chippin' In
-[] Infrastructure (5/5 Dice, +27 bonus, 95R)
--[] Advanced Tunnel Borer Development (0/80) 1 die 15R 68% < 80%
--[] Offshore Tiberium Harvester Stations (Phase 4) (0/150) 2 dice 40R 68% < 76%
--[] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 7) (93/250) 2 dice 40R 63% < 69%
-[] Heavy Industry (5/5 Dice + 3 FD, +34 bonus, 150R)
--[] North Boston Chip Fabricator (Phase 5) (406/1805) 4 dice 60R
--[] Second Generation Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants (Phase 4) 117/270 2 dice 40R 77% < 86%
--[] Second Generation Repulsorplate Factories (365/525) 2 dice 50R 72% < 80%
-[] Light Industry (4/4 Dice, +24 bonus, 110R)
--[] Bergen Superconductor Foundry (Phase 4) (523/610) 3 dice 90R 100%
--[] High Energy Capacitors Development (0/60) 1 die 20R 90% < 98%
-[] Agriculture (6/6 Dice, +29 bonus, 40R)
--[] Reforestation Campaign Preparations (Phase 1) (737/805) 4 dice 20R 100%
--[] Strategic Food Stockpile Construction (Phase 5) (78/170) 1 dice 10R 53% < 57%
--[] Organ Farming Programs (0/120) 1 dice 10R 30% > 19%
-[] Tiberium (7 Dice, +39 bonus, 190R)
--[] Enhanced Harvest Tiberium Spikes (145/180) 1 dice 20R 100% -5PS
--[] Coordinated Abatement Programs (Phase 3) (93/175) 1 dice 25R 72% < 86%
--[] Xenotech Tiberium Refinery Development (Tech) (New) (0/180) 3 dice 105R 98% < 100%
--[] Liquid Tiberium Refining Development (Tech) (New) 0/180 2 dice 40R 72% < 80%
-[] Orbital (7/7 dice + 2 FD + Erewhon, +34 bonus, 200R)
--[] Spaceport Bay (0/295) 4 dice 80R 91% < 98%
--[] Species Restoration Bay (Stage 1) (0/255) 3+E dice 60R 91% < 98%
--[] GDSS Shala (868/975) 2 dice 40R 99% < 100%
-[] Services (4/4 Dice, +32 bonus, 170R)
--[] Primitive Prototype Portal Construction (279/400) 1 dice 100R 40% > 33%
--[] Cosmetic Biosculpting (194/345) 1 dice 30R 5% > 1%
--[] Civil Sensory Augmentics Development (0/120) 1 dice 20R 36% > 27%
--[] Civil Prosthetics Development (0/120) 1 dice 20R 36% > 27%
-[] Military (7/7 dice + 1FD + AA, +31 bonus, 190 R)
--[] Department of Refits -1 Mil die -30 RpT auto
--[] Binary Propellant Exploration (0/60) 1 dice 10R 92% < 99%
--[] Advanced Armor Composites (0/80) 1 dice 15R 72% < 85%
--[] Orca Wingmen Drone Deployment (Phase 2) (196/215) AA die 20R 97% < 100%
--[] Particle Shield Development (0/120) 2 dice 25R 95% < 99%
--[] Governor-A Deployment (Refits) (0/350) 1 dice 20R
--[] Island-Class Assault Ship Deployment (70/135) 1 dice 25R 82% < 94%
--[] Modular Rapid Assembly Prototype Factory (102/265) 1 die 20R
-[] Bureaucracy (4 Dice, +29 bonus)
--[] Predictive Modeling Management (-10 Capital Goods)
--[] Transfer Funding to InOps (-60R)
--[] Administrative Assistance (Military)

Looking this over, I don't believe any changes are warranted. And it's really late in the vote anyways.

The only thing we don't know yet is how crits will happen now. I believe crit fails will only happen if two d50s on a project roll a 1, but for crits? Maybe two d50s that roll 46 or higher, since that has a 1% chance?
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Huh. A lot more green than red but ouch, that Services department
 
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