Heavy Industry Total = 40 dice
45 Heavy Industry dice for the rest of the Plan, 5 dice available, 0 free dice required
This is fantastic. This means if we keep to putting two free dice in heavy each turn we can easily do repulsorplates. Which we should since all the new vehicles and space stuff could use them.

Honestly, if we get decent rolls we can probably fit Aberdeen in as well near the end of the plan.

This is very encouraging.
Orbital Total = 64 dice
63 Orbital Dice for the rest of the Plan, 0 available, 1 free dice required.
I hope this is accurate. That would be such a load off. With free dice we could even do a couple non essential projects.

What a relief.

[X] Plan A Good Spread
 
I hope this is accurate. That would be such a load off. With free dice we could even do a couple non essential projects.

It's accurate assuming average rolls.

If we roll under average we will require more dice.

There are also other factors to consider, nat 1's meaning a project potentially gives less capital goods or energy than it says on paper, or it takes longer to reach that level of production, or it ends up costing more resources or extra progress.

We might also lose dice/bonuses to assassins, tiberium disasters, accidents or just some of our top specialists aging into retirement or no longer being able to carry out their duties.

Broadly speaking, assume it's correct, but I for example, have been pressing for multiple extra free dice per turn into orbital for a while now.

Beyond that, there are things we want to do beyond 'just' the plan goals.

Yes complete the goals, but there are also bonus goals we probably want to pursue, orbital for example lists a certain number of people in space, but one thing I want to get started on is better lunar infrastructure. Moon mines, colonies, etc and so forth.

Or in tiberium, we only need a certain amount of red zone abatement. It can be from any source, but in particular I would like to see a focus on red zone marvs, to unlock red zone inhibitors, get more STU's, clear and claim strategic geographical territory such as the Suez Canal or Visitor tower ruins. The list goes on.
 
You don't seem to be taking into account the Labor growth we will be receiving from the University Program Updates.

I'm not yet, as we don't have the Program updates completed yet and it is going to take time to spool up.

Really hope LCI has notes and plans of Dr. Alcard's automation projects and manages to get them going soon...

There is a lot of space in LCI for various projects.

I hope this is accurate. That would be such a load off. With free dice we could even do a couple non essential projects.

It is thanks to the high rolls on Shala we got this last turn. It does assume average rolls, but that is statistically likely over that many dice.
 
[X] Plan Evacuation Prep

If we do have to crash colonize the moon or mars we might need to infect them with tiberium, so maybe we should do some experiments in creating 'pools' of tiberium isolated away from the surrounding environment so that we have the learning and experience ready, maybe also do it using the venusite tiberium as it hasn't evolved to any of our efforts so would be easier to deal with if it escapes.

Edit: maybe also do some experiments on how the two breeds of tiberium interact
Those ideas are nigh-universally dreaded, among others because if you're talking about Venusian tiberium and Earth tiberium interacting, it's quite possible they'll somehow "cross-pollinate" into something with the worst features of both.

Planning on seeding Tiberium elsewhere this early is good but I think we should focus on building up ships and stations first for harvesting Nat. Resources in the Asteroid field and protecting them (just in case). We get some nice Cap. Goods from that for building Factories that make building Tib harvesters and power plants to Power em or Space stations/docks/factories to really setup offworld Tib and Nat. Resource harvesting.

Though thinking bout it now maybe offworld Tib harvesting can wait next cycle? I'm worried about not finishing promised projects considering there are still ways to go.
There is absolutely no way we're escalating that far in the current Four Year Plan. We might be up to actual serious asteroid mining efforts and second generation space factories (beyond just Enterprise) by the end of the next Four Year Plan in 2069.

I feel like it would be a good idea to bring fungus bars back in space.
SCOP isn't fungus bars in spaaace. It's CRP 2.0 in spaaaace.

While an evacuation pathway to the moon is rapidly appearing before us, what still isn't is any way to materially support the mass increase of the spaceside population.

Visitor Life Support tech can at least solve maintaining atmospheric conditions, but we seem far away from building sealed arcologies on the moon, which I would say is the absolute minimum for supporting a true evacuation.
We literally do not have a button to push for "build our first major moon base," so I don't think there's much we can be doing about this.

I have to imagine we're nearing the point where the public is going to start taking seriously the idea that GDI might have privately written off 99% of humanity, and with that giving Nod an opening so large they couldn't even dare to imagine it. Opening the way to the moon alongside maximum density housing when there's nowhere to actually go might accelerate that perception.
Like, we literally can't build a giant moon base and start proving that we're working on lunar evacuation until we finish Shala and Columbia. Some external factor(s) won't let us.

What, precisely, are you suggesting that we do with our Orbital dice? Attempting to fulfill the 20,000-in-space population target is about the best gesture of good faith we can make here, it's at the bare fingertip limit of our capabilities, and it's a strong sign that we intend to keep expanding the space population well past that point for as long as circumstances let us.

Meanwhile, Nod is, in the narrative you're putting together, the ones who have doomed us here, because it was Kane that created a giant tiberium explosion trap and Nod that did massive damage to GDI's space programs and tiberium mitigation efforts back in the 2040s, pushing things beyond the tipping point.

At the same time, it's also hard to deny from the trend that this very turn could be Peak Ablation. And if that's the case, Earth's time is running too short to prioritize keeping the calm.
I see no compelling reason to think we can't keep pushing things back in our favor for a while longer.

HousePet said:
This is a rather concerning.
If we get restricted on vein mining as well, we can't do much as far as tib mining goes. ZOCOM are still too stressed to really push much further in red zones.
If we move gradually and keep doing our best with the zone armor, ZOCOM hopefully won't hit full overstrain. They are taking steps to expand and to close down less-essential responsibilities, it's just a slow process.

-Updated New Labor Net Growth Estimate.

Note: Labor is now projected to be Net Negative given the current commitments and how we are no longer experiencing Labor net Growth. This is especially concerning given we will need additional Labor for further 2CCF projects to prevent Energy issues and additional Labor for other military factories.

Any questions/comments are welcome
Hey, @Ithillid , when we decommission old-generation fusion plants, do we get back the labor that was invested in them? For instance, Phase 8 of the old fusion plants cost -1 Labor; when we lose the +16 Energy it provides, do we get the Labor back?

Please tell me that GDIWife is banned.
Theoretically, an ornithopter is quite hard to have crash down, but...
I know this is controversial, but I'm beginning to think GDIWife does not crash vehicles.

No, celestial bodies swerve in their courses to ram her vehicle because of her terrible opinions.
 
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We literally do not have a button to push for "build our first major moon base," so I don't think there's much we can be doing about this.

Lunar mines has been up there and ignored.

I could say "We don't have a button to build orbital cruisers." Except by doing preceding projects such as the space fighter and militarising space it likely progresses things in that direction.

You're complaining. 'We don't have a button to build an entire planned city on the moon.' But you haven't even tried building a village or town there yet first. Only minimal resource extraction in the form of a handful of mines.
 
We literally do not have a button to push for "build our first major moon base," so I don't think there's much we can be doing about this.
QM said we were close to unlocking lunar colonization thanks to those shipyards finishing and our other orbital works, so not next turn but I think when Shala and Columbia finish (and maybe the spaceport bay as well)

Now, one thing that will hopefully reduce the pressure on the bay discussions is that I will tell you that the next step is lunar colonization, most likely with the opening being Armstrong Base, but I am still mulling over other names, potentially including Gargaran, and a few others.

Basically, you have enough space infrastructure set up that you are able to, rather than going immediately to a second generation station (although there are advantages to being more conservative in your setup), go straight for lunar colonial options, especially as your fusion ships start to come online.
 
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Lunar resource extraction and then manufacturing infrastructure is probably the way to go to reach sealed arcologies, yes.

That being said, I hate to even consider this but tiberium's ability to convert anything into a wide range of materials makes it an ideal way of getting spaceside resources. You know, at the low cost of poisoning yet another world and dooming humanity all over again in the future. We can say a lot about containing it to certain bodies, but all it takes is a single incident and contamination will spread. Spacefaring societies seem unable to actually win against tiberium, at best keep even with it like the Visitors do.

This is a temptation far stronger and far more deadly than that of fossil fuel. I think that if we do end up going an evacuation route, we still need to develop at least small levels of tiberium control tech to survive. For which our grand prize is ending up a civilization like that of the Visitors...
 
Lunar mines has been up there and ignored.

I could say "We don't have a button to build orbital cruisers." Except by doing preceding projects such as the space fighter and militarising space it likely progresses things in that direction.

You're complaining. 'We don't have a button to build an entire planned city on the moon.' But you haven't even tried building a village or town there yet first. Only minimal resource extraction in the form of a handful of mines.
To add a word to Simon_Jester's quoted line: "We literally do not yet have a button to push for "build our first major moon base,"
That button will be available after we complete Shala and Columbia. His point was that we are actually working towards that, but are not yet ready to start on moon cities because we haven't completed the prerequisite projects.

Work on moon mines was, on its own, never likely to give us a "moon city" project. They're worth doing to increase local resource production for future moon cities, but Ithillid has been clear that the path up the space habitation tech tree goes through "complete the first 4 space stations".
I'm not yet, as we don't have the Program updates completed yet and it is going to take time to spool up.
Valid, I suppose. I mention it because I think that between that and other Labor-saving/generating projects we are likely to be getting in the future as that indicator decreases, we are not in as bad a situation as your analysis indicates. But I have no hard numbers on that.
 
Too bad they only provide low quality housing then. We don't need more low quality housing. We have 60+ point of low quality housing already!
I'm pretty sure that if we're intensively building new arcologies and stuff, that we'll have High Quality Housing out in the 'boonies' areas of the Blue Zones. The last few phases of Blue Zone Apartments were explicitly build well inland in areas that were often not Blue Zones back in 2050, either because of the spread of tiberium or the loss of GDI control, or both. I suspect quite a few of the new arcologies are the same way.

So I'm pretty confident that when we reach "0 population in Low Quality Housing," that will mean that people still live in 'boonie' regions where it's appropriate to support our industrial situation and so on. It's just that they'll have nice places to live; no one's living in a converted bunker if they don't want to.

Not much to say, both of these plans look good to me. While I don't want Very High Density Housing for reasons of safety and comfort that have already been bought up...
I see it as something we need as an insurance policy.

If we get to a "definitely evacuate as many people as possible" situation, we won't have a choice; we'll be very specifically building the densest possible housing because that's the difference between X millions of people surviving the fall of Earth and 1.25*X millions surviving.

I think it's worth creating one prototype hab area where people may have to live like that now just to figure out what the conditions are for the very plausible case where we might all have to live like that later or not live at all.

Especially since there will be absolutely no shortage of people who want to live in space on the scale we need. With Starbound representing something like 10-15% of the electorate, you can be quite sure that we'll have no trouble finding 1500 volunteers to live in that housing bay even under the given conditions.

If it turns out to be specifically unsafe, well, we need to know that so we don't accidentally lose a hundred times as many people to a bigger disaster during evacuation. If it turns out to be uncomfortable, well, we may no longer have the luxury of making sure everyone is always only ever comfortable.

[shrugs]

Next up, low density housing. Here's the thing, we already *know* high density housing is gonna suck, it by definition sucks, stuffing people into less room, enforcing communal living on people, etc etc. There are some people who prefer communal living for cultural reasons such as the forgotten or Yellow Zone refugees or so on. But broadly speaking, most in GDI prefer a standard of living that includes personal space. And I want to make a gesture to the people, these aren't emergency liferafts for evacuation to stuff people into like sardines. These are intended and designed as actual cities with comfortable living in space. There's no rush, everyone will get a spot...
But there is a rush.

The world is in danger of coming to an end well within the lifetime of the people now living on it.

I think the message you'd send here would be more of an upraised middle finger: "We're focusing our resources on building shiny pleasant Elysiums in space for a few of us, and we don't really care how many of you die down there when the tiberium overruns you. No worries! Stay calm! Labor for the comfort and welfare of the valued specialists!"

This is fantastic. This means if we keep to putting two free dice in heavy each turn we can easily do repulsorplates. Which we should since all the new vehicles and space stuff could use them.

Honestly, if we get decent rolls we can probably fit Aberdeen in as well near the end of the plan.
Well, we need to be damn careful about our Labor budget from here out.

I hope this is accurate. That would be such a load off. With free dice we could even do a couple non essential projects.
I think we'd best use our Free dice to continue getting ahead of the game and pushing towards the space population target through 2064, then shift focus and do our optional projects in 2065 as we have some assurance of reaching the end in good shape.

It's accurate assuming average rolls.

If we roll under average we will require more dice.
As the number of dice increases, the odds of a significantly below average total roll converges towards zero.

If you roll 1d100, you have a 40% chance of getting an average result of 40 or less.
If you roll 10d100, you have a 13% chance of getting an average result of 40 or less.
If you roll 50d100, you have a 0.5% chance of getting an average result of 40 or less.

There remains some chance that we'd need some number of Free dice for this stuff, but if the actual project costs are as Doruma projects, it won't be that many.

Other factors remain in play, to be clear, but the point is that "bad rolls could screw us" becomes much less relevant as a concern when we're talking about the results of the next fifty dice rolls instead of the next five or ten.

Lunar mines has been up there and ignored.

I could say "We don't have a button to build orbital cruisers." Except by doing preceding projects such as the space fighter and militarising space it likely progresses things in that direction.

You're complaining. 'We don't have a button to build an entire planned city on the moon.' But you haven't even tried building a village or town there yet first. Only minimal resource extraction in the form of a handful of mines.
You misread my words, or you would not think I had a complaint.

My observation is that, quite simply, building more moon mines demonstrably does not get us the "moon towns" option. It gets us the "twice as many offshore oil rigs" option. No number of offshore oil rigs constructed will result in a fully fledged floating ocean city. Nor will a lot of moon mines result in a moon city. We know this because we did a huge megaproject worth of moon mines in the late 2050s and early 2060s, something like 1500 Progress or so worth of moon mines, and it didn't bring about that result.

My point is, as Lightwhispers says, that we are pursuing the path that takes us to the goal of moon cities. We are already on that path. There is no way to accelerate our progress towards it by pursuing a radically different course, only by running faster down the road we are already on, and avoiding sidebar things (e.g. the Shala bays are not on that path, and while I honor the desires that led to us building the fruticulture bay, it was not a step towards our first moon city).

My point to the person I was talking to was that we're not actually ignoring the problem that they seem to think we're ignoring.

QM said we were close to unlocking lunar colonization thanks to those shipyards finishing and our other orbital works, so not next turn but I think when Shala and Columbia finish (and maybe the spaceport bay as well)
As Lightwhispers correctly clarified, my point is that there's nothing we can do about unlocking lunar colonization EXCEPT what we are already doing. It is a defense of the current trajectory the thread consensus is on, not an attack on the game situation as a whole.
 
@Ithillid
If we build a Very High Density Bay as part of Columbia, would future (non-Columbia) space Very High Density housing be built as mixed density* , or would it still be concentrated into separate districts? Assuming that the experiment is successful, of course.

*e.g.an apartment building containing some medium density rooms some high density rooms, and some very high density rooms, or a street having different density lots
 
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Lunar resource extraction and then manufacturing infrastructure is probably the way to go to reach sealed arcologies, yes.
We've already done lunar resource extraction on a very significant scale; it was a major element of the Third Four Year Plan and it's a big part of what we were doing up in space while the Regency War was going on. For now the manufacturing base (Enterprise) is actually in geosynchronous Earth orbit, but that's probably not the big obstacle.

The main problem we were encountering by the end of our big moon mine building craze was that the living conditions in those mines were terrible. They were living in extremely spartan accommodations designed for astronauts, not in anything like viable communities with recreation spaces and so on. There's a reason I compare them to offshore oil rigs, because they're similar in nature- they are places you fly out to for a long stint of work using heavily automated machinery and then go home from, not places you live.

What was missing was the knowledge base for building space habitats that last and are comfortable in general, and that's why we needed Columbia. Personally I think we should have been able to go ahead with a moon base using only Shala Phase 3 or maybe Phase 4, but I understand the logic of wanting to actually reach the capstone there.

But we know what our "moon town" colonization option is gated behind and we're already working on it.

That being said, I hate to even consider this but tiberium's ability to convert anything into a wide range of materials makes it an ideal way of getting spaceside resources. You know, at the low cost of poisoning yet another world and dooming humanity all over again in the future. We can say a lot about containing it to certain bodies, but all it takes is a single incident and contamination will spread. Spacefaring societies seem unable to actually win against tiberium, at best keep even with it like the Visitors do.

This is a temptation far stronger and far more deadly than that of fossil fuel. I think that if we do end up going an evacuation route, we still need to develop at least small levels of tiberium control tech to survive. For which our grand prize is ending up a civilization like that of the Visitors...
My sympathies. Yeah, that's been my viewpoint for a while.

Valid, I suppose. I mention it because I think that between that and other Labor-saving/generating projects we are likely to be getting in the future as that indicator decreases, we are not in as bad a situation as your analysis indicates. But I have no hard numbers on that.
Doruma's methodology in those projections- which I for one am a fan of- is to be conservative about them. Doruma doesn't count on us having anything we don't already know we can build, or getting any benefits we don't know we can make with our own hands. He tries hard not to count any chickens before they're hatched.
 
Hey, @Ithillid , when we decommission old-generation fusion plants, do we get back the labor that was invested in them? For instance, Phase 8 of the old fusion plants cost -1 Labor; when we lose the +16 Energy it provides, do we get the Labor back?
Projected Fusion Power Plant Decommissioning
-8 Energy Q1 2064
-16 Energy, +1 Labor Q1 2065
-16 Energy, +1 Labor Q4 2065
-16 Energy, +1 Labor Q3 2066
-16 Energy, +1 Labor Q4 2067
-16 Energy, +1 Labor Q2 2067
-16 Energy, +1 Labor Q3 2067
-16 Energy, +1 Labor Q4 2067
-16 Energy, +1 Labor Q2 2068
-16 Energy, +1 Labor Q4 2068

yes.
@Ithillid
If we build a Very High Density Bay as part of Columbia, would future (non-Columbia) space Very High Density housing be built as mixed density (e.g.an apartment building containing some medium density rooms some high density rooms, and some very high density rooms, or a street having different density lots), or would it still be concentrated into separate districts?
This is getting a lot more into the nitty gritty than you really need to go. Think of the bays more as influencing the average, and what people expect when it comes to extraterran living.


Should have done more Lunar mining, I am confident doing more wouldve sped up moon colonies.
In some ways absolutely, in other ways not so much. Basically, more lunar mining would have increasingly built up lunar infrastructure, meaning more/bigger/faster lunar cities. However, you also need to have practice runs of large scale actually living in space, rather than iterations on small scale worksites.
 
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This is getting a lot more into the nitty gritty than you really need to go. Think of the bays more as influencing the average, and what people expect when it comes to extraterran living.
I don't know what's worse: People expecting to eat the SCOP Bay's CRP, or to live in the Very High Desnity Housing's super-tiny and crowded apartments.
 
But there is a rush.

The world is in danger of coming to an end well within the lifetime of the people now living on it.

I think the message you'd send here would be more of an upraised middle finger: "We're focusing our resources on building shiny pleasant Elysiums in space for a few of us, and we don't really care how many of you die down there when the tiberium overruns you. No worries! Stay calm! Labor for the comfort and welfare of the valued specialists!"

The message I'm trying to send is "Don't worry, we've got tiberium under control and things in orbit are proceeding on schedule, there's no rush. The plan is still to beat tiberium, and even if that's not viable we've got plenty of time to make sure everyone gets off safely. We have a plan, we have a schedule, there's no reason to compromise on safety, capacity or comfort."

If we're going with hypothetical fearmongering I could just as easily think the message you'd be sending with very high density is. "You deserve only the bare minimum. We're getting you into space but don't care about living conditions, your only value is to cram as many workers as possible into small metal boxes so we can exploit you for labour."

Boy! Unfounded accusations and over-exaggerations are fun!
 
Living in space is already pretty tough, ideally people should have as much space and luxuries as they need, but I figure that has to wait until we can build semi-subterran moon colonies.
 
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