We've long suspected that completing the Agriculture Mechanization will have larger effects on Agriculture than just the +12 Food. (The project description ends on phrase "their efficiencies creating cascade effects.") We've discussed this a bunch, but kept prioritizing other projects instead. So it's not really about the +12 Food, though a big pile of +Food is still good to have no matter what.
A fair point. On the other hand, with no way for a single die to complete the project, I don't see it as "this is clearly a better choice than lab-grown meat research."
As we clear some of the extras from our docket (and with six dice a turn we very much can), expect to see me calling for Phase 2 mechanization soon enough. It's a good idea whose time has just about come. I don't object to NTU having it in the plan, and I hope my lack of it isn't taken as prejudicial to completing the project at some point in the near future.
You missed filling in Nottheunmaker's name here.
I typed the text offline in a notepad file, and so couldn't do tagging. I'll fix it.
And you've got common/similarities mixed up with differences. Both plans have only those two differences you list outside the spoiler, and all their other dice are the same.
Ah, yes. That's how I intended to organize the text of the post, and I fumbled a few words of description.
We do have three years left to complete the Karachi project, and I would expect that the early stages involve the construction of a port city at Karachi, rather than the rail corridor through potentially contested lands.
So we could easily spread this project out and push back the possible 'boots marching on al-Isfahani face scenario' by an extra year without jeopardizing the project.
Well, up to a point. We kind of need to have the bulk of the heavy construction work done before the 2065 monsoon season, and I suspect al-Isfahani's threatened territories extend down into the flatlands not too far from Karachi. So trying to delay until, say, 2065Q3 and then do a gigantic umpteen-die surge to finish most of the entire project in a single massive 'OOF' probably wouldn't go well.
I don't think we can safely push the 'GO' date back past 2064Q4 or at the latest 2065Q1. On the other hand, you're still
right, and that
is why I'm tentatively optimistic.
According to the Array to get SADN phase 3 we need 12 dice to have an 84% chance of completing it or 13 for a 97% chance. 5 dice + an AA one is less than half of that. If we roll poorly with only 5 + an AA dice we might not be able to get SADN phase 3 done by 2063Q2, if we roll badly with 7 dice this turn we will be further along and have a better chance of still getting phase 3 out in2063Q2.
Since I am planning to roll 5+AA dice this turn, and 7 dice or more next turn, I am quite confident getting the project done. It would take bizarrely bad luck for us to roll 5+AA followed by 7+ dice (I will be more likely to commit AA dice or even an eighth regular die if the situation looks bad and we have unlucky rolls to make up for) and
still not have
SADN Phase 3.
That doesn't mean the thing is mathematically impossible, but it was never mathematically impossible. At some point, one has to focus on likelihood, rather than the possibility of small chances accruing in exactly the wrong way.
...
Meanwhile, unless we're planning to postpone the Red Zone border offensives and spend on the projects supporting them in Q2 or later, we're creating problems for ZOCOM if we don't give them enough funding to be reasonably confident of finishing their two biggest projects this turn- the Santiago factory and the zrbite gun production lines. I wish I could make room for the infantry drones too, but that's a whole 'nother project. I'm very much cutting that because I
don't think I can fit it in and still get
SADN Phase 3 by the end of 2063Q2.
More generally, on the subject of
SADNed Alloys, my thoughts are as follows:
1) Chicago is still a priority, but lower Heavy Industry investment gives her a 12% chance of completion rather than 32%. Either way, it's likely that we have to spend at least one Heavy Industry die on the project next turn, but this makes it more likely that we will also need to spend an Infrastructure die if we want to be sure of not spending yet another HI die in 2063Q3. That's not a big deal, though. Infrastructure dice are cheap, and all I'm really saving us compared to her is a 20% chance of having an extra HI die to play with next turn.
2) 2+AA dice investment on fusion power gives Shadows an 85.3% chance of project completion instead of 53%. This is nice, but in my opinion is offset by the fact that this plan consumes more Energy, what with the Tiberium AEVA (-3) and the increased chance of finishing
SADN Phase 2 (-1). Then again, Shadows also works on Bergen rather than Reykjavik, so even if we do wind up with a temporary Energy crisis (at around +2 Energy indicator), it'll be a quick easy fix in Q3 because we'll be able to rapidly finish up both the fusion reactors and
Bergen Phase 4 even if neither project completes during the turn. This, too, is not a big deal to me. She's got the Energy situation well in hand, as such.
3)
SADNed Alloys has six dice on alloy foundries instead of five. Personally, I consider this overinvestment. It makes it harder to do other important things, and while it
does materially improve our odds of getting
Alloy Foundries Phase 4 next turn, all else being equal, it's a heavy price to pay. This is true both in terms of opportunity costs (HI is a hotly contested field with a huge array of projects to do, all of them important), and in terms of raw budget (each alloy die costs 40 R, forcing us to accept tighter constraints elsewhere). We'd have an 87% chance of phase completion anyway, and I don't feel the burning need for a 99% chance of completion from the sixth die.
With that said, Shadows has 35 R of wiggle room in her budget, so it's not like she
couldn't be taking additional dice on expensive projects this turn if she were so inclined.
4) One of the most hotly debated points between
SADNed Alloys and the
Fires of Industry plans is that Shadows puts the Light Industry dice on Bergen, whereas Nottheunmaker and me put dice on Reykjavik, as shown above. This has been heavily debated over the past few pages. The most concise explanation of my reasoning for Reykjavik is in Doruma's post
here, which outlines both why we started
Bergen Phase 4 last turn and how (I think) things have changed. Notably, Bergen, like the alloy foundries, is costly, and spending the full budget here makes things harder elsewhere. On the other hand, in Shadows' favor, there is some value to finishing projects we start on general principles, and it's not as if the energy or superconductors from Bergen will ever be useless. It's just that the myomers from Reykjavik are also use-
ful. As I see it, either project is a worthwhile use of our time, but as long as we're working on the alloy foundries, it's a serious strain on the Treasury to
also be working on Bergen at the same time, one that I don't think can be justified except by true necessity.
Again, Shadows does have wiggle room in the budget, so this isn't a case of being "forced" to spend less elsewhere to do this, but it is taking up 50 R that I'd be just as happy to have for something else or to pay forward.
5) I have an 80 R Agriculture budget, spent on a mix of luxury foods (vertical farming and lab-grown meat research), spider cotton, and tarberries. Shadows has a 40 R Agriculture budget, dropping the luxury foods and spider cotton, and instead putting those four dice on
Reforestation Campaign Preparations... Now, this is an important project for us to accomplish... Though I take exception to her implying that only a quick start to the reforestation counts as "unfucking this planet." For instance, I consider strong efforts to prepare for the Red Zone campaigns as contributing to the same goal. We have plenty of Agriculture dice, more than we could possibly use on our required projects, and taking a little longer to start the reforestation program is okay in my opinion.
6) Tiberium is an area where I
strongly dissent from Shadows' program. She funds
Enhanced Harvest Tiberium Spikes. I don't. I don't want to go anywhere near those if I can help them, because we have far more tiberium than we can use, and because any 'scientific misadventure' involving the high-yield spikes will result in rapid, possibly uncontrolled underground tiberium growth for an unspecified distance in the surrounding area. I want to stay far far away from this.
7) Shadows also has the
Tiberium AEVA. While I can't say that this is a
bad idea, it does cost us -4 Capital Goods at a time when we're trying to fill stockpiles and divert resources to the civilian economy, and it does lock down the entire Services sector for the turn so we can't do any medical sector work. The +3 bonus to all future Tiberium dice isn't nothing, but I'm not sure I want it that badly right now.
8 ) In Orbital, one difference is that Shadows consolidates four dice on
Shala while I split them evenly across
Shala and
Columbia. This is not a big deal. The other is that she puts an AA die (I put these on Military) on
Gravitic Shipyard to give it a better chance of completion. This... Well, personally, I try not to put AA dice on above-average-cost projects because you simply never get as much 'bang for your buck' that way. This is another respect in which
SADNed Alloys adheres to the pattern of putting more of the budget on a handful of relatively expensive 'flagship' projects.
9) In Services... well, see (7).
10) In Military, well, this is another hotly debated point, so you can review the last several pages for details. I think both Shadows and I agree that SADN is very important. The difference seems to be that I consider it worthwhile to spend 1+AA dice to be sure (98.8%) of getting
Zrbite Weaponry Phase 1 and two dice for a good (83%) chance of finishing the Santiago Zone Armor factory this quarter. Shadows takes the AA die off the zrbite guns and puts it on fusion reactors (questionable IMO), and puts the two dice on SADN work. She then takes the AA die off SADN and puts it in Orbital as discussed above. The main effect of this is that she has a 70% chance of completing Phase 2 where I have a 16% chance; she winds up about 110 points ahead of me on the SADN project. Personally, I think it is acceptable to do this for the sake of ZOCOM's readiness and fully plan to make up for lost time next turn and have Phase 3 finished by 2063Q2. But this is an honorable reason to favor her plan over mine, for single-issue "maximize SADN" voters.
11) In Military again, there is the issue of MRAP versus combat lasers. For my side of that discussion, see
here, points 2a and 2b. For hers, see
here.
Shadows' plan is workable and valid, even if I think it overinvests in some areas where we might want to make different choices. My main concern is that I'm not going to be nearly as comfortable voting for
Red Zone Border Offensives in 2063Q2 as we'd hoped to do, if we don't have the Santiago Zone Armor factory. Or if, Heaven forfend, we don't have zrbite guns ready. On the other hand, the probably about +110 points of extra SADN progress is very much
not nothing, and could theoretically result in some key industrial target being secured against an attack that would otherwise have destroyed it, if we come under cruise missile or heavy air attack (nuclear or otherwise) between late 2063 and late 2064, because the defenses around those targets will be three months closer to full readiness. Also, we'll be closer to More Superconductors if farther from More Myomers, and about +85 Progress (very roughly) closer to the next phase of alloys, if -85 Progress along the track to Chicago. And so on.
So that giant slab of effortpost sums things up, I think. I totally understand anyone who did not choose to read this, and don't blame them one bit. I hope I have treated Shadows' plan with respect, as was my intention.
