- Location
- MSC
Well, Goal is to build Karachi by end of 2065:
Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition
- Location
- Ohio
That was on me then. I will correct my info.
- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
Can't speak for Shadows, but in my case I left Fruticulture Bay fallow because with only 7+E dice on Orbital, I don't have enough dice to go around wrapping up all the unfinished business from our twelve-die bay-building extravaganza last turn, unless I give up on "make meaningful progress on the 'crown jewel' station cores," which I don't want to give up on.
We're about to go into another round of Red Zone expansions and we know there's tiberium wildlife still active in the Deep Red. Studying them and learning more about them and how they fit into the tiberium ecosystem probably shouldn't be delayed longer unless it has to be. And we're very much not in "do stuff we have to do right now" mode for tiberium projects this turn.
Hrm.
Given that he's not big, I suspect his nuclear submarine arm is actually fairly limited in size, and he can only put his nuclear missile submarines in so many places at once. So any given location in the world outside his striking range with land-based missiles is in considerably less danger than any given location within his striking range.
I'm not opposed to SADN Phase 2, quite the opposite! But if we need Phases 2 and 3 so badly that it mandates throwing seven dice or whatever at the project, as opposed to, say, five and two thirds... Well, then we were frankly already screwed anyway. Because we have a lot of valuable targets that simply are not covered by Phase 1 or Phase 2 and won't get done this quarter no matter what we try.
I'm comfortable with "five and a third" dice (4+2AA) and thinking of upping it to "five and two thirds" (5+AA). I'm not going to go farther than that given that while "Al-Isfahani launches an ultimately suicidal nuclear last stand the moment we go ashore at Karachi" is a speculative problem, "we make a Red Zone border offensive push in 2063" is basically fact at this point and we specifically need to prepare for that.
Between heavy SADN spending this turn and next turn, we'll assuredly have Phases 1 and 2 starting to come online by Karachi Day. Given the spool-up times for the project and that we don't have a time machine, that's the best we can really do.
Yes, but more generally, there are places where liquid tiberium getting to high temperatures and pressures and going boom are more or less likely, and I had figured that highly volcanic regions are among the riskier spots. Maybe I'm wrong. I dunno.
Historically, discussion has centered around several factors:
1) Military readiness. At first we anticipated war with the Bannerjees over the project (even before we knew their names). Now we anticipate probable war with al-Isfahani, who is weaker, but specifically builds around his nuclear arsenal, and so is very much not a threat to be taken lightly.
2) Monsoon season. In particular, 'Q3' overlaps with the heavy monsoon rain season in Pakistan where the work will be done, and the cyclone/hurricane season extends into 'Q4.' Now, GDI is capable of doing major construction work in adverse weather conditions. We built up many of the big parts of the Nuuk robotics factory during winter in Greenland, for example. But it still suggests a 'natural' timing for the project, with relatively little if any work being done in Q3/Q4 of a given year, and most work being done in Q1/Q2 when the weather is more favorable hopefully.
3) Need to actually get the project properly done on time. Gulati would not have considered us to be "keeping this promise" if we barely rushed the project to completion at the tail end of the time window; we know this because of questions we asked back when the commitment was to get Phase 4 done by 2061Q4. Of course, Gulati is dead and her exact wishes don't necessarily matter that much, but out of respect for the dead and for the political movement she was a part of, most of us seem to have no desire to dawdle.
With all this in mind, a lot of discussion had formerly centered around a "GO" time to start heavy work on Karachi, formerly of 2063Q4, now possibly 2064Q1.
I am personally in favor of starting in 2064Q1, then investing at least 6-8 dice in the project on that turn and on 2064Q2, leaving us in a strong position to complete work on the project in 2064Q4-2065Q1.
The main reasons I don't want to start earlier are:
a) I don't want to do major amphibious landings or heavy construction work during a torrential rainy season or a hurricane.
b) I don't want to risk starting a nuclear war with al-Isfahani right before Election Day.
c) The government may have some realignments on Election Day that may shape policy on the project, connected to (b)
d) Every quarter of time we buy is more time to get the SADN network not only fully funded but also finished, physically, in key locations.
I would be unhappy to accept pushing the project back to 2064Q4, though given intense efforts we could still get it done and in before the timeline, especially since the later phases of the project that might have to be done in 2065Q3-Q4 are likely to involve pushing up into the Himalayas and out of range of the really bad coastal weather.
Last edited:
- Location
- Ohio
Those are very good reasons, and the risk of attack made sense to me.
I was concerned with questors being questors, and that meant that I missed the forest for the trees.
Your interpretation of what the project does is incorrect, I believe. It looks much more like "apply tib infusions to lab animals". We already did Visceroid studies.
And as regards SADN: Phase 1 protects the Mecca/Medina and Chicago Planned Cities, and Halstead Base (groundside ASAT control). Phase 2 protects vital industrial targets, which we know by Ithillid's commentary on nuclear strikes would be hit by al-Isfahani's missiles.
- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
GDI Quest questers don't usually make bad long term choices. A lot, and I mean a LOT, of discussion and planning goes into the plan votes and there's a lot of thought put into medium-range requirements like "can we get this done in the next few years." Read up on Doruma1920's posts; he does really sterling work on this. I do my best too, as do others.
The big category of decisions that sometimes proves to be our kryptonite is neglecting specific military projects with long lead times and then not having them ready to go when we need them, instead having a bunch of other military stuff that, while undeniably cool, turns out not to be exactly what we foreseeably were going to need most.
This is what happened to us with naval preparedness during the Regency War; we didn't do enough to build up the Navy in the 2050s. And while the other branches of GDI's military actually did very well for themselves, the Navy struggled throughout the war, and our stopgap measures didn't do much to make it better though they did help some.
There is some fear that the consequences of going for Karachi without SADN rollout could be worse, and SADN rollout is a bit problematic because while construction can start right away, the defense sites take somewhere between two and six quarters to fully come online. That is to say, if we start now, it wouldn't be until that 2064Q4 or so timeframe that we'd really have Phases 1, 2, and potentially 3 of the system entirely in place to take potshots at any nuclear missiles al-Isfahani sends our way.
You're right, I suppose.
Still, I can see the data being useful for Forgotten studies, and I don't think there's much danger of Seo running out of mad science to do, so I for one am going for it, not least because I have tiberium goat envy.
Quite true. The thing is, this isn't about whether for all future time we will have ONLY Phase 1, or also Phase 2, or also Phase 3. It's about whether we invest 5.33, 5.67, or 7-ish dice into the construction project.
My argument is that none of those rates will get us Phase 1+2+3 fully up and online in a single turn anyway, and indeed no matter what we do at this point even Phase 1 will still be in the early phases between "begin" and "complete."
If we're going to take it as given that al-Isfahani is launching a mass nuclear strike on us specifically in 2063Q4, it is already too late. Even if we 'complete' Phase 2 in 2063Q1, the defense systems will not be fully installed on The Day, and a lot of missiles will get through and do a lot of damage.
If we're either planning to push back Karachi to reduce the nuclear threat and give SADN more time to get up and running, or if we're mentally dividing the risk by some probability that al-Isfahani won't launch a nuclear attack in immediate response to the landings and construction work, then we're already factoring that in and it makes a lot less difference whether Phase 2 is at 200/295 or 325/295 at the end of 2063Q1 in particular.
This may mean we are forced to accept a pushback of Karachi to 2064Q4 followed by heavy investment to build it up, because we can definitely get SADN Phase 1+2 fully stood up between this quarter and next quarter, with a good chance of having Phase 3 besides, and have all those defenses ready to go by 2064Q4.
But investing one or two dice more or less in this specific turn simply isn't going to make that much of a difference.
- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
So looking only at the leading contenders, as of the latest vote count, we are at
13 "Plan Attempting to Feed The Fires of Industry NTU Edition."
11 "Plan SADNed Alloys"
8+1 "2063Q1 Plan Attempting to Stoke the Fires of Industry OG."
[looks at how plan isn't displaying right]
Oops.
..
This post is also registration of my intent to:
1) Go back and remove the word '2063Q1' from my plan name so it will display properly in the tally. I will ping voters about this change later.
2) To do as I had earlier considered and flip from 4+2AA dice on SADN and 2 dice on zrbite guns to 5+AA and 1+AA dice, respectively. This is broadly as suggested by @Oleg-14191 .
Oleg, @Phht , @MrRageQuit , @bigking321 , @mayboro , @Model DC.14F , @Aerrow Shadow , @Hellteddy , please be advised that the word "2063Q1" has been deleted from the plan name as above. The plan name is now:
[] Plan Attempting to Stoke the Fires of Industry OG
13 "Plan Attempting to Feed The Fires of Industry NTU Edition."
11 "Plan SADNed Alloys"
8+1 "2063Q1 Plan Attempting to Stoke the Fires of Industry OG."
[looks at how plan isn't displaying right]
Oops.
..
This post is also registration of my intent to:
1) Go back and remove the word '2063Q1' from my plan name so it will display properly in the tally. I will ping voters about this change later.
2) To do as I had earlier considered and flip from 4+2AA dice on SADN and 2 dice on zrbite guns to 5+AA and 1+AA dice, respectively. This is broadly as suggested by @Oleg-14191 .
Oleg, @Phht , @MrRageQuit , @bigking321 , @mayboro , @Model DC.14F , @Aerrow Shadow , @Hellteddy , please be advised that the word "2063Q1" has been deleted from the plan name as above. The plan name is now:
[] Plan Attempting to Stoke the Fires of Industry OG
Last edited:
2064 Q4 is the absolute earliest I'm willing to do Karachi. We can still easily complete the city before the deadline at that point, and it means that Mecca will be as safe as it can reasonably made. I'm not willing to lose another holy city just to make the politically-determined schedule less intensive.
Worst case for a late start is either rushed production, or if we take it slower some lost PS for only having funded production through phase 5 rather than completing it. The other is losing one of the last cultural sites that humanity has, half our tib processing capacity, and double digits of cap good production. I know what I'd rather risk of the two.
Worst case for a late start is either rushed production, or if we take it slower some lost PS for only having funded production through phase 5 rather than completing it. The other is losing one of the last cultural sites that humanity has, half our tib processing capacity, and double digits of cap good production. I know what I'd rather risk of the two.
Last edited:
- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
Not gonna lie, I'm pretty sure that al-Isfahani won't actually nuke Mecca, as such. His targets would be the tiberium refinery complexes around Medina and Jeddah and the port infrastructure around Jeddah. I'm pretty sure we've kept the actual strategic targets well away from Mecca proper, such that unless the circular error probable on al-Isfahani's missiles is very, very bad, he won't hit those targets. He doesn't want Mecca blown up any more than we do, after all. It matters to him, too.
...
On the other hand, there are any number of other lesser sacred sites of Islam in the general vicinity, and of course lots and lots of people and very valuable infrastructure we kind of need intact, and it's not like none of that matters!
I'm still wobbling between a 2064Q1 and 2064Q4 start time myself, honestly, but I very much see your point and that's why I'm wobbling as opposed to still advocating 'early 2064' firmly.
...
Even if Gulati would be cranky about it if she were still alive, frankly... she's not, and we have a right to try to take commonsense precautions.
Last edited:
This is the lead plan with the AA die on zbrite weapons replaced with Predictive Modeling Management
We have the capital goods needed as we will soon get +12 from Chicago and more from Reykjavik in three turns
2D50 has multiple advantages over 1D100, from a slightly higher average and lower odds of a NAT 1 but the largest one is that rolls near 50 are twice as likely as ones near 1 or 100
[X] Plan Predicting To Feed The Fires Of Industry NTU Edition
-[X] Infrastructure (5/5 Dice, +27 bonus, 100 R)
--[X] Chicago Planned City (Phase 5) 387/995 (5 dice, 100 R) (32% chance)
-[X] Heavy Industry (5/5 Dice + 5 Free Dice, +34 bonus, 300 R)
--[X] Chicago Planned City (Phase 5) 387/995 (2 dice, 40 R) (see above)
--[X] 2nd Gen. CC Fusion Plants (Phase 1) 144/325 (2 dice, 40 R) (53% chance)
--[X] U Series Alloy Foundries (Phase 3) 186/550 (5 dice, 200 R) (87% chance)
--[X] Second Generation Repulsorplate Development 0/60 (1 die, 20 R) (95% chance)
-[X] Light Industry (5/5 Dice, +24 bonus, 100 R)
--[X] Reykjavik Myomer Macrospinner (Phase 5) 50/1155 (5 dice, 100 R) (5/14.5 median)
-[X] Agriculture (6/6 dice, +29 bonus, 85 R)
--[X] Vertical Farming Projects (Stage 4) 181/230 (1 die, 15 R) (96% chance)
--[X] Agriculture Mechanization Projects (Phase 2) 26/240: 1 die, 15 R) (1/3 median)
--[X] Spider Cotton Plantations (Phase 1) 0/160 (2 dice, 30 R) (72% chance)
--[X] Tarberry Plantations (Phase 1+2) 0/185 (2 dice, 20 R) (99% chance Phase 1, ~50% chance Phase 2)
-[X] Tiberium (7/7 dice, +39 bonus, 220 R)
--[X] Tiberian Prediction Algorithms 80/120 (1 die, 20 R) (100% chance)
--[X] Tiberium Inhibitor Deployment (BZ-7 Korea) 0/90 (1 die, 30 R) (65% chance)
--[x] Improved Hewlett Gardener Refits (Phase 1+2) 0/240 (4 dice, 140 R) (99% Phase 1, 4% chance Phase 2)
--[X] Tiberium Wildlife Experiments 0/60 (1 die 20 R) (-5 Political Support) (MS) (100% chance)
-[X] Orbital (7/7 Dice + EREWHON!!!, +34 bonus, 170 R)
--[X] Medium Density Housing 310/335 (E die, 20 R) (91% chance)
--[X] Gravitic Shipyard 292/430 (1 die, 30 R) (17% chance)
--[X] Fusion Shipyard 380/475 (1 die, 20 R) (60% chance)
--[X] GDSS Columbia (Phase 5) 146/1065 (2 dice, 40 R) (2/10 median)
--[X] GDSS Shala (Phase 4) 92/530 (3 dice, 60 R) (3/5 median)
-[X] Services (4/4 Dice, +35 bonus, 95 R)
--[X] Regional Hospital Expansions (Phase 2) 4/285 (1 die, 25 R) (1/3 median)
--[X] Kamisuwa Optical Laboratories 79/240 (2 dice, 40 R) (72% chance)
--[X] Autodoc Systems Development 0/120 (1 die, 30 R) (36% chance)
-[X] Military (7/7 Dice + 2 Free dice, +31 bonus, 220 R)
--[X] Strategic Area Defense Networks (Phase 1) 0/250 (5+1AA dice, 120 R) (99.8% Phase 1, 7.5% chance Phase 2)
--[X] Zrbite Sonic Weapons Deployment (Phase 1) 317/380 (1 20 R) ( 84% chance)
--[X] Ground Forces Zone Armor (Set 1) (Santiago) 28/165 (2 dice, 40 R) (83% chance)
--[X] Combat Laser Development 0/80 1 die 25R 72%
-[X] Bureaucracy (3/4 Dice, +29 bonus, 0 R)
--[X] 1 AA die on Strategic Area Defense Networks
--[X] Predictive Modeling Management 1 die auto
-[X] Interdepartmental Favors (Updated)
--[X] Tiberium Abatement: Complete 1 phase of Red Zone Refits and 3 Blue Zone Inhibitors
We have the capital goods needed as we will soon get +12 from Chicago and more from Reykjavik in three turns
2D50 has multiple advantages over 1D100, from a slightly higher average and lower odds of a NAT 1 but the largest one is that rolls near 50 are twice as likely as ones near 1 or 100
[X] Plan Predicting To Feed The Fires Of Industry NTU Edition
-[X] Infrastructure (5/5 Dice, +27 bonus, 100 R)
--[X] Chicago Planned City (Phase 5) 387/995 (5 dice, 100 R) (32% chance)
-[X] Heavy Industry (5/5 Dice + 5 Free Dice, +34 bonus, 300 R)
--[X] Chicago Planned City (Phase 5) 387/995 (2 dice, 40 R) (see above)
--[X] 2nd Gen. CC Fusion Plants (Phase 1) 144/325 (2 dice, 40 R) (53% chance)
--[X] U Series Alloy Foundries (Phase 3) 186/550 (5 dice, 200 R) (87% chance)
--[X] Second Generation Repulsorplate Development 0/60 (1 die, 20 R) (95% chance)
-[X] Light Industry (5/5 Dice, +24 bonus, 100 R)
--[X] Reykjavik Myomer Macrospinner (Phase 5) 50/1155 (5 dice, 100 R) (5/14.5 median)
-[X] Agriculture (6/6 dice, +29 bonus, 85 R)
--[X] Vertical Farming Projects (Stage 4) 181/230 (1 die, 15 R) (96% chance)
--[X] Agriculture Mechanization Projects (Phase 2) 26/240: 1 die, 15 R) (1/3 median)
--[X] Spider Cotton Plantations (Phase 1) 0/160 (2 dice, 30 R) (72% chance)
--[X] Tarberry Plantations (Phase 1+2) 0/185 (2 dice, 20 R) (99% chance Phase 1, ~50% chance Phase 2)
-[X] Tiberium (7/7 dice, +39 bonus, 220 R)
--[X] Tiberian Prediction Algorithms 80/120 (1 die, 20 R) (100% chance)
--[X] Tiberium Inhibitor Deployment (BZ-7 Korea) 0/90 (1 die, 30 R) (65% chance)
--[x] Improved Hewlett Gardener Refits (Phase 1+2) 0/240 (4 dice, 140 R) (99% Phase 1, 4% chance Phase 2)
--[X] Tiberium Wildlife Experiments 0/60 (1 die 20 R) (-5 Political Support) (MS) (100% chance)
-[X] Orbital (7/7 Dice + EREWHON!!!, +34 bonus, 170 R)
--[X] Medium Density Housing 310/335 (E die, 20 R) (91% chance)
--[X] Gravitic Shipyard 292/430 (1 die, 30 R) (17% chance)
--[X] Fusion Shipyard 380/475 (1 die, 20 R) (60% chance)
--[X] GDSS Columbia (Phase 5) 146/1065 (2 dice, 40 R) (2/10 median)
--[X] GDSS Shala (Phase 4) 92/530 (3 dice, 60 R) (3/5 median)
-[X] Services (4/4 Dice, +35 bonus, 95 R)
--[X] Regional Hospital Expansions (Phase 2) 4/285 (1 die, 25 R) (1/3 median)
--[X] Kamisuwa Optical Laboratories 79/240 (2 dice, 40 R) (72% chance)
--[X] Autodoc Systems Development 0/120 (1 die, 30 R) (36% chance)
-[X] Military (7/7 Dice + 2 Free dice, +31 bonus, 220 R)
--[X] Strategic Area Defense Networks (Phase 1) 0/250 (5+1AA dice, 120 R) (99.8% Phase 1, 7.5% chance Phase 2)
--[X] Zrbite Sonic Weapons Deployment (Phase 1) 317/380 (1 20 R) ( 84% chance)
--[X] Ground Forces Zone Armor (Set 1) (Santiago) 28/165 (2 dice, 40 R) (83% chance)
--[X] Combat Laser Development 0/80 1 die 25R 72%
-[X] Bureaucracy (3/4 Dice, +29 bonus, 0 R)
--[X] 1 AA die on Strategic Area Defense Networks
--[X] Predictive Modeling Management 1 die auto
-[X] Interdepartmental Favors (Updated)
--[X] Tiberium Abatement: Complete 1 phase of Red Zone Refits and 3 Blue Zone Inhibitors
Last edited:
- Location
- United States
[X] Plan SADNed Alloys
- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
Honestly, I don't see it as being that big of a problem that we roll d100s, and I don't mind occasional natural ones that much.
Importantly, I think this is a bad time to take an extra -10 Capital Goods hit, because it's not just about having more than +0 Capital Goods; we're trying to rapidly build up a stockpile. Especially with the need to give huge extra slabs of capital goods to the civilian economy, something we promised Litvinov we'd do and have made no progress on. And especially with the looming prospect of al-Isfahani maybe deciding to go "fuckit" and nuke a bunch of our major industrial centers (even SADN isn't perfect, remember, and some of our key facilities like North Boston are probably vulnerable to things like nuclear-tipped torpedoes swimming into the harbor)
This technically violates our promise to Litvinov(?), the head of state. We promised her we wouldn't use Free dice if we weren't activating all our individual bureau dice. Except on Tiberium, in case we couldn't afford anything else and were frantically revving up tiberium production. This was basically her wanting to make sure we didn't go around defunding entire categories like Agriculture and Services for a year at a time or anything, but it's particularly tricky in the context of Bureaucracy actions now that security reviews are off the menu.
I suggest making an Interdepartmental Favor promise unlikely to cause us to regret it later, probably the one to the Department of Housing. Those are projects we wanted to do anyway, in a category where we have a lot of wiggle room. By contrast, the abatement promise involves doing a phase of Red Zone Energy Refits, which could be a pain in the ass even if it's useful. The ZOCOM promise could be very restrictive. And the "coordinated abatement" promise is essentially a blank check since we haven't actually seen what that project involves yet, and Tiberium is already pretty tightly stretched as a category what with the refinery refits.
The fact that it rolls closer to 50 on average will make planning easier as there are fewer high/low rolls.
Shows this if you select graph you see the odds of rolling any number with 1D100 and 2D50
with a 1D100 all numbers have a 1% chance
with a 2D50 the odds of rolling 50 is 2% and any number between 26 and 76 has a chance of about 1%, and anything outside that less than 1%
This will help a lot with those 0/40 development projects as the odds with 2d50 vs 1D100 are about 10% higher
AnyDice
AnyDice is an advanced dice probability calculator, available online. It is created with roleplaying games in mind.
anydice.com
with a 1D100 all numbers have a 1% chance
with a 2D50 the odds of rolling 50 is 2% and any number between 26 and 76 has a chance of about 1%, and anything outside that less than 1%
This will help a lot with those 0/40 development projects as the odds with 2d50 vs 1D100 are about 10% higher
Decided to add the abatement goal, one of the three inhibitors is started this turn and zocom will be happy if we do the refits next turn instead of starting the offensives giving them 3 more months to rebuild and roll out supporting gear.
- Location
- The Underdark
Close only counts with horseshoes, hand grenades and tactical nuclear weapons. While it is far enough away that a detonation right in the middle of Jeddah would do little to nothing to Mecca, Mecca is inherently kind of in the middle of any defensive array that protects Jeddah meaningfully, and punching missiles through that would absolutely put Mecca at risk.
What I'm taking as a given is that, if al-Isfahani launches a nuclear strike on our industry, having the relevant SADN phases complete a turn earlier will help reduce damage, even if it's not fully complete. Now, I agree with Rakuhn about timing, in order to get the most coverage... but people are not fully predictable. It's not an all-or-nothing thing.
- Pronouns
- He/It/Argh!
It is that "if" for me.
We have so little superconductor production that we are die restricted on how many we can assign towards power plants.
Now, three dice seems okay. But these factories also supply replacement parts. So will it still be three dice allowed after the first phase of CCF2 is done? Maybe, maybe not.
And if any new use of superconductors comes along (repulsor plates, shipyards, combat lasers?). Instant bottleneck again.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
[X] Plan Attempting To Feed The Fires Of Industry NTU Edition
[X] Plan Attempting to Stoke the Fires of Industry OG
[X] Plan: The fast shuttle to a secure Chicago
[X] Plan Attempting to Stoke the Fires of Industry OG
[X] Plan: The fast shuttle to a secure Chicago
- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
Suffice to say that I think the harm mitigation in "wow, good thing we had the Phase 2 SADN sites fully funded and construction underway in 2063Q1 instead of early in 2063Q2" is small enough that I consider it not worth angsting over "5.66 dice or seven?"
I'm not saying there is literally zero potential for harm reduction in the event of al-Isfahani going all-out with a nuclear war because of the hypothetical scenario that may not even materialize where we go for Karachi in the next 3-5 turns.
I'm saying that the scope of the predictable disaster likely to ensue from that scenario will be sufficient that I don't expect the scale of the harm reduction to be enough to be worth diversion from other problems we definitely have. Especially since we can sidestep the whole issue by pushing 'GO' time for Karachi to 2064Q4 and simply giving ourselves adequate time to bring the Phase 2 defense systems online either which way and have the Phase 3 defense systems mostly if not entirely online too, as is likely to be the case after 2-3 turns of aggressive SADN investment in early 2063.
If supplying spares for a single second-generation fusion plant tranche takes up that much of Bergen's capacity, despite the second-generation plants being designed for longevity, then we have very, very serious problems on our hands and it is best we find out now. We're not in such a terrible energy crunch that we can't adapt to being able to spend only two more dice on fusion power in 2063Q2, rather than two.
That's a fairly long-term argument. My argument is that here, now, in this moment, I'd rather work on Reykjavik than Bergen. It's not as if only Bergen, and not Reykjavik, produces a new strategic meterial with widespread applications in our military and economy. Civilian demand for myomers is assuredly limited by production capacity, as is civilian demand for superconductors.
I'm not saying "never build Bergen Phase 4," or for that matter even "never build Bergen Phase 5."
I'm saying "I think it's time for us to finish Reykjavik, and also that would be a cheaper project per die, with lots of exactly the kind of immediate short-term payoff we need (+Capital Goods), instead of being a project whose immediate benefits are not obviously exactly what we need right now in this moment."
There's a reason I voted to have us only promise to finish three industrial capstones during the current Plan, not four or five. It's because I want to have the flexibility to have cheap projects for mandatory completion goals, and optionally choose to do big expensive things if those things have immediate direct benefits.
When we get to the point where we're saying "expand the superconductor factory because more superconductors are good on general principles even if we're not obviously inconvenienced by current production limits," it's time to stop and question a bit. Maybe myomers are also good on general principles!
Last edited:
- Pronouns
- He/It/Argh!
But it only takes 1 turn to complete Bergen 4, so I don't think we lose out on anything significant for covering our asses here.
We are going to build it later on anyway. Whether we do it now or later doesn't matter in a little over a year's time.
Reykjavik 5 will take a year to complete, unless we actually put Free dice in LCI for a change. And that is a long time to have bottlenecked superconductor production, when we need them for something as critical as keeping the lights on.
It delays completion of Reykjavik 5 by 1 turn at most.
Overall, I see no reason to conclude that starting Reykjavik is significantly more valuable than finishing Bergen in the short term. And in the long term, both are completed.
We are going to build it later on anyway. Whether we do it now or later doesn't matter in a little over a year's time.
Reykjavik 5 will take a year to complete, unless we actually put Free dice in LCI for a change. And that is a long time to have bottlenecked superconductor production, when we need them for something as critical as keeping the lights on.
It delays completion of Reykjavik 5 by 1 turn at most.
And this argument works both ways. But Bergen delivers the goods faster.
Overall, I see no reason to conclude that starting Reykjavik is significantly more valuable than finishing Bergen in the short term. And in the long term, both are completed.
- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
I do a lot of planning for this quest and honestly I don't see this as being "easier." We know how to plan around d100-based dice. Yes, sometimes a project completes unexpectedly quickly or slowly. It's annoying when that happens. But we manage just fine and I don't think it would be significantly less work to put a plan together if we were rolling 2d50.The fact that it rolls closer to 50 on average will make planning easier as there are fewer high/low rolls.
Shows this if you select graph you see the odds of rolling any number with 1D100 and 2D50AnyDice
AnyDice is an advanced dice probability calculator, available online. It is created with roleplaying games in mind.anydice.com
with a 1D100 all numbers have a 1% chance
with a 2D50 the odds of rolling 50 is 2% and any number between 26 and 76 has a chance of about 1%, and anything outside that less than 1%
I understand the basic arithmetic just fine, but I don't think it's as important.
0/40 and 0/50 development projects have near-100% chances of completion anyway due to our bonuses being so high. Now, 80-point projects profit, but... the vast majority of those complete with a single die roll, too. And so often we don't start the deployment project immediately anyway, which makes it irrelevant if we effectively eliminate the chance of development taking two turns.
I'm not saying the effect is useless, to be clear. I just don't think it's that big of a deal. It's a +0.5 on all dice rolls,
The problem isn't the inhibitors, the problem is the refits. You can push for doing the refits next turn as opposed to pushing into the Red Zones, and maybe you can pull it off, but I don't expect that combination to pass. Also, the refits mean we have to use about four Tiberium dice on refits and not on refitting our H-G refineries, something we already promised Litvinov that we'd do.
Tiberium is a pretty thinly stretched category right now and I'm not a fan of taking on additional commitments we don't have to there.
It takes one turn if we commit to 5+ dice on a 30 R/die project. To be precise, our odds of completion are 15/54/86/97% if we roll 5/6/7/8 dice, respectively.
Six dice on a 30 R/die project to complete it does not strike me as a small or insignificant investment compared to, say, investing those same six dice on an industrial megaproject we've been delaying for years and gets us about 40% of the way to finishing and getting the capstone bonus.
Three turns, but yes.
If we find out that we DO have a superconductor bottleneck narrowing us down to two fusion plant dice per turn again as soon as we finish the first phase, and I emphasize that this is an entirely speculative concern on your part that as far as I can determine only arose just now when you were thinking of it...
Well, by your own argument, we'll be able to rapidly pivot and clear the bottleneck in 'just one turn.' Next turn. We'll finish Bergen Phase 4 in 2063Q2, and the fact that we'll only put two dice instead of three on second generation fusion in 2063Q2 won't be a significant problem if we don't let it be.
Yes. But one costs 10 R/die more than the other, and while we have plenty of money we don't have so much that we can throw it around on pushing projects to provide redundant capacity because "we need superconductors" when it's equally true that "we need myomers" and we've just gotten used to the supply being fixed.
At risk, yes. You are not wrong.
I just want to keep it on the record that al-Isfahani is so far as I know culturally Muslim, not unlike the Caravanserai warlords, and probably has some of the same factors on his mind.
My optimistic side speculates that he might even flip to 'neutral' in response to the Karachi situation, simply because he has no nearby support and is very isolated and cut off by the Bannerjees throwing him under the bus, and going out in a blaze of 'glory' by throwing fusion bombs in the general direction of Mecca just to punish GDI for building a road would be folly that goes against every cautious, long-term-thinking decision he's ever made.
But that could be me whistling in the dark, and I know it.
Last edited: