[X] Plan Attempting One More Phase of Alloys On Halloween
Dammit, I wanted to post my plan, but I'll have to settle for the popular plan that does Alloys. People these are literally both Dice and money savers. Use em as soon as possible.
I really, really like alloys, and I'd prefer them sooner rather than later (which also makes my life easier, as it reduces the number of updates I need to make to the tools). A naive reading has them saving slightly more than 2 dice per phase per turn (~1/25 dice, iirc). Which I ballpark to about 1.5 dice per phase per turn, after discounting their savings to lower priority departments (such as agri, LCI, or services).
What changed my mind on my priority this turn:
-An 87% probability of success isn't high enough for me to say 'choosing this path is definitely superior to the other'. If it was six dice on alloys (99% CoS), I'd be more in favor of it.
-The currently leading plan saves a lot of R, making it easier to invest in Alloys/Bergen next turn
-The alloys plan puts a free die into bureaucracy, removing most of the savings (as we frequently spend 2 bureau dice to get a partial die elsewhere)
-Completing DAE now ends the argument, and is generally nicer (imo) than investing into red zone refits (which, tbf, we'll probably want to do anyways, but I think DAE has the better rate of return atm) (+4 energy per die vs +2.5 energy per die). And as the alloys plan is effectively spending a free die on red zone refits, it's a (comparative) net negative.
-The leading plan does AECCM and tarberries, both techs I want to see the fruits of. AECCM seems like it will have a lot of improvements in a lot of areas, and it can be auto-deployed by the munitions department. And tarberries is the final 'industrial scale' energy generating tech that we have available.
-The leading plan does the munitions department (positive and negative. positive if it takes a turn to take effect, a turn too soon if it starts taking effect immediately)
And while I was nervous at first about the excessive 'nice to have' orbital spending, it's on several projects that will take a while to fully proc, so doing them early makes sense (shipyard bays, fruiticulture bay). I'm still worried about doing too much on orbital simultaneously blowing up in our faces, but the datapoint will be nice to have for confirmation.
TLDR: The alloys plan is not necessarily dice positive over the leading plan, so it isn't as much of an auto-grab as my priorities would normally indicate.