- Location
- USA
[X] Attempting To Supply The Canned Beans
[X] Plan Dawn of the Final Year
[X] Plan Dawn of the Final Year
Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition
- Location
- Minnesota
[X] Plan Dawn of the Final Year
[X] Plan Dawn of the Final Year, Carrier Focus
[X] Plan Dawn of the Final Year, Carrier Focus
[X] Attempting To Supply The Canned Beans
- Pronouns
- He/It/Argh!
@Simon_Jester and others, time for a probability lesson.
Yes, this is maths; but so is money and dice based games, and we love those.
I'll try to keep this as simple as possible, there will be no homework, but there is a test. The test is this Quest.
This might come across as slightly condescending because of how simple I'm trying to make it, but that is just because maths is actually bloody hard. We are built for running around on the savannah, not for solving differential equations.
Everyone is likely thinking about things mostly the right way, but there are a couple of things that you can get wrong, and it can make a big difference to your final results.
It is quite likely that you will feel that something you are about to read is inherently wrong, even if my reasoning seems fine. This is your Intuition speaking. Tell your Intuition to sit down and shut up. They are excellent at protecting you from lions, tigers and bear, but they are terrible at maths ("Look out for the 1's and 7's, they look sharp."). Which is part of why this sort of thing can be hard to grasp.
To start with, everything in this quest is based on a 1d100 die. You likely look at this and think that all results are equally likely. It could roll a 10, it could roll a 90. Possibly you just thought about a 'perfectly balanced' meme.
You then likely think that this applies to all the probabilities in this game. That is totally wrong.
Before I explain why it is wrong, I'm going to try explaining why you might have difficulty accepting that it is wrong.
This is Intuition causing problems. Intuition is trying to tell you that a non-zero chance of Tigers is something you need to worry about, because if a non-zero Tiger happens, you die. So it is tricking you into thinking that the small chance events are as important as the large chance events. But in this case, the small chance events aren't going to eat you.
Now, why are not all results from this evenly weighted 1d100 die not equally likely? Because we roll multiple dice.
To see why this matters, we'll simplify things by using a d6 instead. Equally weighted. Could roll any integer between 1 and 6.
But what if we roll 2 d6s? We'll get any integer result between 2 and 12. But out of all 36 options, 6 of them are the median total of 7. Only 1 is the maximum result of 12.
As soon as more than one d6 is used, the median value is now six times more likely than one of the extreme results. Instead of a flat distribution of chances, we have a triangle with the median result as most likely.
Now, 'six' times more likely and 'd6' is not a coincidence. If we roll 2 d100s, there is only 1 combination that gives 200, but there are 100 combinations that give 101.
(I am not writing those on a table for you.)
But don't worry about it getting worse if we throw more dice. All that really happens is that the triangle gets smoothed over to become what is called a Gaussian distribution. Which is shown next.
(Doesn't display well on dark backgrounds.)
The most important detail of this Gaussian distribution is that the median values are way way more common that the extreme values. Mathematically, you can calculate how extreme those extreme values are by working out something called a standard deviation, those are the sigma numbers on the above picture.
For a perfect Gaussian, 68.2% of the points are within one standard deviation of the median, which I'm going to simplify to 2/3rds.
I suggest thinking about 1 standard deviation as roughly equivalent to 1 average dice roll of progress. The actual value will depend on our dice bonus and the number of dice rolled (or the amount of progress needed after we invert things in the next step). But thinking about it in this way will help you form the shape of how this works.
So if we were to roll 4d100, we can expect the total to be 'close' to 200 about 2/3rds of the time. About 1/6th of the time it will be significantly over (say 250+), and 1/6th of the time it will be significantly under (less than 150).
But we aren't strictly talking about the number of dice a project needs yet. To get to that we need to invert the situation. Conveniently, an inverted Gaussian is also a Gaussian, so I haven't just wasted time describing it, we actually were talking about the right shaped probabilities already.
This gets us to an important result. 2/3rds of the time, a project will require the expected number of dice to complete. About 1/6th of the time it will finish with less dice, and about 1/6th of the time it will need more dice.
There is nothing we can do to change this. It does not depend on whether we spend the dice over multiple turns, or all at once. Only changing modifiers to our dice bonus, or changing the amount of progress needed do anything, and that is only indirectly through changing the expected number of dice needed.
Another important point about the Gaussian distribution is that 2 standard deviations from the median covers 95% of the chances. The chance of rolling below median by 2 standard deviations is ~2%.
Note that rolling below median by 1 standard deviation was 16%.
What I'm trying to communicate here is that the more you hope to roll better than the median value, the more it becomes exponentially unlikely to happen.
So while you can sometimes expect to get a project to complete with 1 less dice than expected. Trying for 2 dice less than expected is rarely going to happen.
Now, I mentioned above the 'expected number of dice to complete a project'. What actually is that?
That is a little bit hard to nail down, as there is another aspect of this that might be causing us to misjudge our dice expectations. That Gaussian distribution looks nice, but we don't have to just get near to the target, we have to beat it.
Intuition insists at this point that we only have to run faster than the slowest person in the group to survive the Bear. In this quest, we always have to outrun the Bear.
So we actually have to overshoot on every project to complete it (other than when Ithillid graces us with the omake grace buffer).
In fact, the expected number of dice needed to complete a project is actually how many dice, which is rolled exactly median, gave us an overshoot by half a die.
In reality, this could be almost a whole dice of progress as overshoot. But, we shouldn't feel like this was wasted progress, because the project wouldn't have completed without it.
Attempting to avoid this also causes us to underestimate how many dice we actually need to complete a project.
Sure, we look at Derpmind's excellent probability array, and we can read off how many dice are needed to give an above 50% probability of completion.
But even if we do that, up to half our projects will still need 1 more die to complete. And half will complete technically early. That itself is fine.
But if we then look at the probability array and decide that we'll try for 1 die less than whatever dice amount gives a 50% chance, we are actually aiming for 2 dice less than the expected number needed.
That means 2 standard deviations, as in exponentially less likely to happen.
Which doesn't mean it can't happen. But what will happen most of the time?
Trying for 2 dice under didn't work. So we decide to give it another die the next turn.
But a project completing with 1 die less than expected only happens 1/6th of the time, so it fails to complete again. We have to give it another die.
Final result: The project has completed on budget, but 2 turns late. Our gamble hasn't lost us resources, but we've lost out on having whatever that important project was completing up to 2 turns earlier. We have very few projects that couldn't do with finishing 2 turns earlier.
And that wouldn't be bad luck, just bad expectations from us. Bad luck is when it takes a third turn and an extra die to complete.
So how should we be approaching our dice allocations?
As a simple rule of thumb, just remember that we aren't likely to finish a project with a saving of more than 1 die less than expected. This stretches a bit more with mega-projects. We might be lucky and complete it 2 dice early.
But just remember, that the reverse is equally likely. Many projects will need one more die than it looks like. That isn't bad luck. It is just our brains not being able to realise that we are underestimating it.
If you do want to slow-walk a project. Make sure we have the time to do it. As it could take twice as long as you expect.
So when picking a dice number from the probability array to go for, aim above 30% at a minimum. Otherwise you can expect that the project will likely need another 2 dice. (Or make sure that we have time for that project to take another half a year to complete as we slow-walk it to completion.)
Picking a dice amount that gives a project a 40-60% completion chance really is throwing a coin to determine if it completes. This will be fine for projects that aren't critical. Just bare in mind that a low roll could happen on the next turn too. Should it roll quite low on the first turn, you may need 2 dice to be confident it finishes on the second turn. But it is still possible that it completes in one turn.
If you want a project to complete this turn-ish, 60-80% is a good choice. Even if it fails this turn, it may not be possible outside of a crit fail for it to not complete on the next turn. Confidence is worth some investment.
Going above 80% is when you really want a project competing yesterday. Yes, there is likely to be a significant over-completion. That is the cost of being fairly sure it gets done. Sometimes worth it.
And that basically sums up why I don't see any point in trying to slow-walk Anadyr. Even completing it with 3 dice is half a die under expected, and is as good a cost saving as we are likely to get. The perceived 50R that could be spent on other projects if it was to complete with only 2 dice is basically illusionary. Sure the chance is non-zero. But what do we miss out on by delaying Anadyr by 2 turns just to save 50R? The value of Anadyr is high enough that I don't want to see that happen.
Yes, this is maths; but so is money and dice based games, and we love those.
I'll try to keep this as simple as possible, there will be no homework, but there is a test. The test is this Quest.
This might come across as slightly condescending because of how simple I'm trying to make it, but that is just because maths is actually bloody hard. We are built for running around on the savannah, not for solving differential equations.
Everyone is likely thinking about things mostly the right way, but there are a couple of things that you can get wrong, and it can make a big difference to your final results.
It is quite likely that you will feel that something you are about to read is inherently wrong, even if my reasoning seems fine. This is your Intuition speaking. Tell your Intuition to sit down and shut up. They are excellent at protecting you from lions, tigers and bear, but they are terrible at maths ("Look out for the 1's and 7's, they look sharp."). Which is part of why this sort of thing can be hard to grasp.
To start with, everything in this quest is based on a 1d100 die. You likely look at this and think that all results are equally likely. It could roll a 10, it could roll a 90. Possibly you just thought about a 'perfectly balanced' meme.
You then likely think that this applies to all the probabilities in this game. That is totally wrong.
Before I explain why it is wrong, I'm going to try explaining why you might have difficulty accepting that it is wrong.
This is Intuition causing problems. Intuition is trying to tell you that a non-zero chance of Tigers is something you need to worry about, because if a non-zero Tiger happens, you die. So it is tricking you into thinking that the small chance events are as important as the large chance events. But in this case, the small chance events aren't going to eat you.
Now, why are not all results from this evenly weighted 1d100 die not equally likely? Because we roll multiple dice.
To see why this matters, we'll simplify things by using a d6 instead. Equally weighted. Could roll any integer between 1 and 6.
But what if we roll 2 d6s? We'll get any integer result between 2 and 12. But out of all 36 options, 6 of them are the median total of 7. Only 1 is the maximum result of 12.
| 1+6 | |||||||||||
| 1+5 | 2+5 | 2+6 | |||||||||
| 1+4 | 2+4 | 3+4 | 3+5 | 3+6 | |||||||
| 1+3 | 2+3 | 3+3 | 4+3 | 4+4 | 4+5 | 4+6 | |||||
| 1+2 | 2+2 | 3+2 | 4+2 | 5+2 | 5+3 | 5+4 | 5+5 | 5+6 | |||
| 1+1 | 2+1 | 3+1 | 4+1 | 5+1 | 6+1 | 6+2 | 6+3 | 6+4 | 6+5 | 6+6 | |
| Total: | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
Now, 'six' times more likely and 'd6' is not a coincidence. If we roll 2 d100s, there is only 1 combination that gives 200, but there are 100 combinations that give 101.
(I am not writing those on a table for you.)
But don't worry about it getting worse if we throw more dice. All that really happens is that the triangle gets smoothed over to become what is called a Gaussian distribution. Which is shown next.
(Doesn't display well on dark backgrounds.)
The most important detail of this Gaussian distribution is that the median values are way way more common that the extreme values. Mathematically, you can calculate how extreme those extreme values are by working out something called a standard deviation, those are the sigma numbers on the above picture.
For a perfect Gaussian, 68.2% of the points are within one standard deviation of the median, which I'm going to simplify to 2/3rds.
I suggest thinking about 1 standard deviation as roughly equivalent to 1 average dice roll of progress. The actual value will depend on our dice bonus and the number of dice rolled (or the amount of progress needed after we invert things in the next step). But thinking about it in this way will help you form the shape of how this works.
So if we were to roll 4d100, we can expect the total to be 'close' to 200 about 2/3rds of the time. About 1/6th of the time it will be significantly over (say 250+), and 1/6th of the time it will be significantly under (less than 150).
But we aren't strictly talking about the number of dice a project needs yet. To get to that we need to invert the situation. Conveniently, an inverted Gaussian is also a Gaussian, so I haven't just wasted time describing it, we actually were talking about the right shaped probabilities already.
This gets us to an important result. 2/3rds of the time, a project will require the expected number of dice to complete. About 1/6th of the time it will finish with less dice, and about 1/6th of the time it will need more dice.
There is nothing we can do to change this. It does not depend on whether we spend the dice over multiple turns, or all at once. Only changing modifiers to our dice bonus, or changing the amount of progress needed do anything, and that is only indirectly through changing the expected number of dice needed.
Another important point about the Gaussian distribution is that 2 standard deviations from the median covers 95% of the chances. The chance of rolling below median by 2 standard deviations is ~2%.
Note that rolling below median by 1 standard deviation was 16%.
What I'm trying to communicate here is that the more you hope to roll better than the median value, the more it becomes exponentially unlikely to happen.
So while you can sometimes expect to get a project to complete with 1 less dice than expected. Trying for 2 dice less than expected is rarely going to happen.
Now, I mentioned above the 'expected number of dice to complete a project'. What actually is that?
That is a little bit hard to nail down, as there is another aspect of this that might be causing us to misjudge our dice expectations. That Gaussian distribution looks nice, but we don't have to just get near to the target, we have to beat it.
Intuition insists at this point that we only have to run faster than the slowest person in the group to survive the Bear. In this quest, we always have to outrun the Bear.
So we actually have to overshoot on every project to complete it (other than when Ithillid graces us with the omake grace buffer).
In fact, the expected number of dice needed to complete a project is actually how many dice, which is rolled exactly median, gave us an overshoot by half a die.
In reality, this could be almost a whole dice of progress as overshoot. But, we shouldn't feel like this was wasted progress, because the project wouldn't have completed without it.
Attempting to avoid this also causes us to underestimate how many dice we actually need to complete a project.
Sure, we look at Derpmind's excellent probability array, and we can read off how many dice are needed to give an above 50% probability of completion.
But even if we do that, up to half our projects will still need 1 more die to complete. And half will complete technically early. That itself is fine.
But if we then look at the probability array and decide that we'll try for 1 die less than whatever dice amount gives a 50% chance, we are actually aiming for 2 dice less than the expected number needed.
That means 2 standard deviations, as in exponentially less likely to happen.
Which doesn't mean it can't happen. But what will happen most of the time?
Trying for 2 dice under didn't work. So we decide to give it another die the next turn.
But a project completing with 1 die less than expected only happens 1/6th of the time, so it fails to complete again. We have to give it another die.
Final result: The project has completed on budget, but 2 turns late. Our gamble hasn't lost us resources, but we've lost out on having whatever that important project was completing up to 2 turns earlier. We have very few projects that couldn't do with finishing 2 turns earlier.
And that wouldn't be bad luck, just bad expectations from us. Bad luck is when it takes a third turn and an extra die to complete.
So how should we be approaching our dice allocations?
As a simple rule of thumb, just remember that we aren't likely to finish a project with a saving of more than 1 die less than expected. This stretches a bit more with mega-projects. We might be lucky and complete it 2 dice early.
But just remember, that the reverse is equally likely. Many projects will need one more die than it looks like. That isn't bad luck. It is just our brains not being able to realise that we are underestimating it.
If you do want to slow-walk a project. Make sure we have the time to do it. As it could take twice as long as you expect.
So when picking a dice number from the probability array to go for, aim above 30% at a minimum. Otherwise you can expect that the project will likely need another 2 dice. (Or make sure that we have time for that project to take another half a year to complete as we slow-walk it to completion.)
Picking a dice amount that gives a project a 40-60% completion chance really is throwing a coin to determine if it completes. This will be fine for projects that aren't critical. Just bare in mind that a low roll could happen on the next turn too. Should it roll quite low on the first turn, you may need 2 dice to be confident it finishes on the second turn. But it is still possible that it completes in one turn.
If you want a project to complete this turn-ish, 60-80% is a good choice. Even if it fails this turn, it may not be possible outside of a crit fail for it to not complete on the next turn. Confidence is worth some investment.
Going above 80% is when you really want a project competing yesterday. Yes, there is likely to be a significant over-completion. That is the cost of being fairly sure it gets done. Sometimes worth it.
And that basically sums up why I don't see any point in trying to slow-walk Anadyr. Even completing it with 3 dice is half a die under expected, and is as good a cost saving as we are likely to get. The perceived 50R that could be spent on other projects if it was to complete with only 2 dice is basically illusionary. Sure the chance is non-zero. But what do we miss out on by delaying Anadyr by 2 turns just to save 50R? The value of Anadyr is high enough that I don't want to see that happen.
@Simon_Jester
I really like your new plan, but three unused service dice are causing me near physical pain.
I would very much prefer you take any of the ideas @Rakuhn suggested, hell, maybe even deducting a die from Anadyr to get some resources to play with, than to just leave three dice unused.
I really like your new plan, but three unused service dice are causing me near physical pain.
I would very much prefer you take any of the ideas @Rakuhn suggested, hell, maybe even deducting a die from Anadyr to get some resources to play with, than to just leave three dice unused.
Last edited:
Dmol8
The Undead Unhinged Lunatic of the Web
- Location
- Belgrade,Serbia
- Pronouns
- He/Him/His
Alright here are three plans that are only different in what they go for in the military: Carriers, Frigates or Space Interception Steehl Rehn.
Resources: 1020 (15 allocated to the Forgotten) (35 allocated to grants)(+30 from Taxes) (-5 from Resettlement) (-30 from Reconstruction commissions)
Political Support: 54
SCIENCE Meter: 4/4
Free Dice: 7
Erewhon Dice: 1
Tiberium Spread
21.29 Blue Zone
2.16 Green Zone
22.82 Yellow Zone (98 Points of Abatement)
53.73 Red Zone (70 Points of Abatement)
Current Economic Issues:
Housing: +36 (31 population in low quality housing) (-10 per turn from refugees)
Energy: +16 (+4 in reserve)
Logistics: +26 (-7 from raiding) (-7 from military activity)
Food: +22 (+10 in reserve)
Health: +9 (-8 from Wartime Demand) (-10 from Refugees)
Capital Goods: +27 (+101 in reserve) [-10 at End of War (Will go back this turn) ] [+1 in Q1 2061 ]
STUs: +11
Consumer Goods: +37 (-22 from demand spike) (+3 from Private Industry)
Labor: +43
Tiberium Processing Capacity (1925/2470)
Labor Per Turn: +4
Taxation Per Turn: +30
Space Mining Per Turn: +75
Green Zone Water: +6
[X] Plan Running on Glass v1.4 Carrier:
-[X] Infrastructure 6/6 Dice 115 Resources:
--[X] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6) 220/300 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 3) 72/160 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Suborbital Shuttle Service (Phase 1) 92/200 30 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 60 Resources
--[X] Bureau of Arcologies (New) -1 Infrastructure Die, -2 to Infrastructure Dice, -15 RpT
-[X] Heavy Industry 5/5 Dice + 3 Free Dice 210 Resources:
--[X] Crystal Beam Industrial Laser Deployment (New) 0/600 20 Resources per Die, 5 Dice = 100 Resources
--[X] Isolinear Chip Foundry Anadyr 85/320 50 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 100 Resources
--[X] Division of Alternative Energy -10 RpT, -1 Heavy Industry Die
-[X] Light and Chemical Industry 5/5 55 Resources:
--[X] Chemical Fertilizer Plants (Phase 2) 276/300 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
--[X] Civilian Support Expansion (Phase 1) (New) 0/250 10 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 40 Resources
-[X] Agriculture 4/4 Dice + 1 Free Dice 50 Resources:
--[X] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 4) 75/140 10 Resources per Die, 3 Dice = 30 Resources
--[X] Freeze Dried Food Plants 151/200 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Extra Large Food Stockpiles 1 Die
-[X] Tiberium 7/7 Dice 150 Resources:
--[X] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 7) 78/100 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
--[X] Red Zone Border Offensives (Stage 1) (Updated) 0/250 25 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 100 Resources
--[X] Liquid Tiberium Power Cell Deployment (Phase 1) 41/140 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Tiberium Harvesting Claws Development (Tech) (New) 0/80 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
-[X] Orbital Industry 6/6 Dice + Erewhon Die 120 Resources:
--[X] Orbital Cleanup (Stage 11) 32/85 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2) 278/310 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 4) 25/365 20 Resources per Die, 3 Dice + Erewhon Die = 80 Resources
-[X] Services 5/5 Dice 185 Resources:
--[X] Professional Sports Programs 0/250 10 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 10 Resources
--[X] Hallucinogen Development (Tech) 0/60 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
--[X] Pinhole Portal Early Primitive Prototype Construction (Tech) 56/180 100 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 100 Resources
--[X] NOD Research Initiatives (New) 0/200 30 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 60 resources
-[X] Military 8/8 Dice + 2 Free Die 135 Resources:
--[X] Railgun Munitions Development 38/60 10 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 10 Resources
--[X] Hallucinogen Countermeasures Development (Tech) 0/40 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
--[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (High Priority) Nagoya 171/240 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (High Priority) New York 0/240 20 Resources per Die, 3 Dice = 60 Resources
--[X] Mastodon Heavy Assault Walker Deployment (High Priority) 0/225 10 Resources per Die, 3 Dice = 30 Resources
-[X]Bureaucracy 4/4 Dice + 1 Free Die:
--[X] Conduct Economic Census 5 Dice DC 250
115+210+55+50+150+120+185+135 = 1020/1020
[X] Plan Running on Glass v1.4 Frigate:
-[X] Infrastructure 6/6 Dice 115 Resources:
--[X] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6) 220/300 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 3) 72/160 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Suborbital Shuttle Service (Phase 1) 92/200 30 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 60 Resources
--[X] Bureau of Arcologies (New) -1 Infrastructure Die, -2 to Infrastructure Dice, -15 RpT
-[X] Heavy Industry 5/5 Dice + 3 Free Dice 210 Resources:
--[X] Crystal Beam Industrial Laser Deployment (New) 0/600 20 Resources per Die, 5 Dice = 100 Resources
--[X] Isolinear Chip Foundry Anadyr 85/320 50 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 100 Resources
--[X] Division of Alternative Energy -10 RpT, -1 Heavy Industry Die
-[X] Light and Chemical Industry 5/5 55 Resources:
--[X] Chemical Fertilizer Plants (Phase 2) 276/300 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
--[X] Civilian Support Expansion (Phase 1) (New) 0/250 10 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 40 Resources
-[X] Agriculture 4/4 Dice + 1 Free Dice 50 Resources:
--[X] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 4) 75/140 10 Resources per Die, 3 Dice = 30 Resources
--[X] Freeze Dried Food Plants 151/200 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Extra Large Food Stockpiles 1 Die
-[X] Tiberium 7/7 Dice 150 Resources:
--[X] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 7) 78/100 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
--[X] Red Zone Border Offensives (Stage 1) (Updated) 0/250 25 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 100 Resources
--[X] Liquid Tiberium Power Cell Deployment (Phase 1) 41/140 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Tiberium Harvesting Claws Development (Tech) (New) 0/80 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
-[X] Orbital Industry 6/6 Dice + Erewhon Die 120 Resources:
--[X] Orbital Cleanup (Stage 11) 32/85 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2) 278/310 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 4) 25/365 20 Resources per Die, 3 Dice + Erewhon Die = 80 Resources
-[X] Services 5/5 Dice 180 Resources:
--[X] Professional Sports Programs 0/250 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Pinhole Portal Early Primitive Prototype Construction (Tech) 56/180 100 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 100 Resources
--[X] NOD Research Initiatives (New) 0/200 30 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 60 resources
-[X] Military 8/8 Dice + 2 Free Die 140 Resources:
--[X] Railgun Munitions Development 38/60 10 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 10 Resources
--[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (High Priority) Nagoya 171/240 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Shark Class Frigate Shipyard (Seattle) 0/300 20 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 80 Resources
--[X] Mastodon Heavy Assault Walker Deployment (High Priority) 0/225 10 Resources per Die, 3 Dice = 30 Resources
-[X]Bureaucracy 4/4 Dice + 1 Free Die:
--[X] Conduct Economic Census 5 Dice DC 250
115+210+55+50+150+120+180+140 = 1020/1020
[X] Plan Running on Glass v1.4 Intercept:
-[X] Infrastructure 6/6 Dice 115 Resources:
--[X] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6) 220/300 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 3) 72/160 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Suborbital Shuttle Service (Phase 1) 92/200 30 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 60 Resources
--[X] Bureau of Arcologies (New) -1 Infrastructure Die, -2 to Infrastructure Dice, -15 RpT
-[X] Heavy Industry 5/5 Dice + 3 Free Dice 210 Resources:
--[X] Crystal Beam Industrial Laser Deployment (New) 0/600 20 Resources per Die, 5 Dice = 100 Resources
--[X] Isolinear Chip Foundry Anadyr 85/320 50 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 100 Resources
--[X] Division of Alternative Energy -10 RpT, -1 Heavy Industry Die
-[X] Light and Chemical Industry 5/5 55 Resources:
--[X] Chemical Fertilizer Plants (Phase 2) 276/300 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
--[X] Civilian Support Expansion (Phase 1) (New) 0/250 10 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 40 Resources
-[X] Agriculture 4/4 Dice + 1 Free Dice 50 Resources:
--[X] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 4) 75/140 10 Resources per Die, 3 Dice = 30 Resources
--[X] Freeze Dried Food Plants 151/200 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Extra Large Food Stockpiles 1 Die
-[X] Tiberium 7/7 Dice 150 Resources:
--[X] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 7) 78/100 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
--[X] Red Zone Border Offensives (Stage 1) (Updated) 0/250 25 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 100 Resources
--[X] Liquid Tiberium Power Cell Deployment (Phase 1) 41/140 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Tiberium Harvesting Claws Development (Tech) (New) 0/80 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
-[X] Orbital Industry 6/6 Dice + Erewhon Die 120 Resources:
--[X] Orbital Cleanup (Stage 11) 32/85 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2) 278/310 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 4) 25/365 20 Resources per Die, 3 Dice + Erewhon Die = 80 Resources
-[X] Services 5/5 Dice 180 Resources:
--[X] Professional Sports Programs 0/250 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Pinhole Portal Early Primitive Prototype Construction (Tech) 56/180 100 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 100 Resources
--[X] NOD Research Initiatives (New) 0/200 30 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 60 resources
-[X] Military 8/8 Dice + 2 Free Die 140 Resources:
--[X] Orbital Strike Regimental Combat Team Stations (Phase 3) 5/295 20 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 80 Resources
--[X] Railgun Munitions Development 38/60 10 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 10 Resources
--[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (High Priority) Nagoya 171/240 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Mastodon Heavy Assault Walker Deployment (High Priority) 0/225 10 Resources per Die, 3 Dice = 30 Resources
-[X]Bureaucracy 4/4 Dice + 1 Free Die:
--[X] Conduct Economic Census 5 Dice DC 250
155+210+55+50+150+120+180+140 = 1020/1020
So the differences between the 3 plans are that Carrier also does Halucinogens both in Services and in Military and that each plan does 1 thing different in Military: Carrier does another Carrier Shipyard, Frigate does the last Frigate Shipyard and Intercept does the Phase 3 of OSRCT Stations:
- 1 Die on Yellow Zone Fortress Towns for a 68% chance and a DC of 33 to complete Phase 6.
- 2 Die on Blue Zone Apartment Complexes for a 99% chance and an Average DC of 3 to complete Phase 3 and a 7% chance and an Average DC of 83 to complete Phase 4 and be done with this plan goal. We will probably need one more Die on this action next turn.
- 2 Die on Suborbital Shuttle Service for a 97% chance and an Average DC of 13 to complete Phase 1 and get the Himmalayan Blue Zone some logistical support.
- 1 Die on Bureau of Arcologies so we are always building at least a small amount of High Quality Housing so that we don't have to do Housing actions every turn.
- 5 Dice on Crystal Beam Industrial Laser Deployment to get so it can be finished or slow-rolled next turn.
- 2 Die on Anadyr for a 8% chance and an Average DC of 89 to complete. Probably finished next turn with another Die.
- 1 Die on Division of Alternative Energy so we have enough Energy in case everything that can completes this turn and so we build some amount of Energy each turn.
- 1 Die on Chemical Fertilizer Plants for a 100% chance and a DC of 1 to complete it and get the Food from it.
- 4 Dice on Civilian Support Expansion because while not a plan goal this one is urgent if we want to take as many refugees in as properly as possible and make it so Initiative First loses even more political ground. No I don't expect this to help with Reynaldo unless we roll a crit.
- 3 Dice onBlue Zone Aquaponics Bays for a 100% chance and an Average DC of 1 to complete Phase 4 and a 74% chance and an Average DC of 40 to complete Phase 5 and get us enough food to offset the Extra Large Food Stockpiles.
- 1 Die on Freeze Dried Food Plants if we can take that action next turn. 91% chance and a DC of 10 to complete if nothing has changed.
- 1 Die on Extra Large Food Stockpiles to get that done and start building towards the stockpile goal properly.
- 1 Die on Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting for a 100% chance and a DC of 1 to complete Stage 7 and a 33% chance and a DC of 68 to complete Stage 8 if we also complete Phase 6 of Yellow Zone Fortress Towns.
- 4 Dice on Red Zone Border Offensives currently for a 99% chance and an Average DC of 20 to complete Stage 1 and get us +2 Energy and Super Glaciers. Will make it easier to do Stage 2 next turn.
- 1 Die on Liquid Tiberium Power Cell Deployment for a 56% chance and a DC of 45 to deploy some Energy in this emergency of having too much crap to rapidly build in Heavy Industry.
- 1 Die on Tiberium Harvesting Claws for a 80% chance and a DC of 21 to develop an improvement to Tiberium Mines so they can be worked on soon.
- 2 Die on Orbital Cleanup for a 100% chance and an Average DC of 1 to complete Stage 11 and a 76% chance and an Average DC of 36 ro complete Orbital Cleanup and get us that +5 Political Support to offset the Liquid Tiberium Power Cells.
- 1 Die on Lunar Regolith Harvesting for a 100% chance and a DC of 1 to complete Phase 2.
- 3 Dice and an Erewhon Die on Lunar Heavy Metals Mines for a 22% chance and an Average DC of 62 to complete and be done with until the next Phase of Enterprise is done and as such have better foundations for both colonization and actions until the end of this plan.
- 2 Die on Professional Sports Programs for a 2% chance and an Average DC of 91 to complete this turn in case of Frigate and Intercept plans. We need the PS people and with the war winding down we have the option to spend some Health for 10 PS and we will complete this one next turn if it is not done this turn.
- 1 Die on Hallucinogen Development for a 88% chance and a DC of 18 to complete in Carrier.
- 1 Die on Pinhole Portal Early Primitive Prototype Construction for a 19% chance and a DC of 82 to complete with this plan. This is an expensive bastard of an action.
- 2 Die on NOD Research Initiatives for a 32% chance and an Average DC of 61 to complete this with a slow roll. We don't have the Dice or the Resources for more this turn.
- 3 Dice on either Escort Carrier Shipyards New York for a 54% chance and an Average DC of 49 to complete in Carrier plan or 4 Dice on Shark Class Frigate Shipyards Seattle (hi @uju32) for a 64% chance and an Average DC of 46 to complete the Shark Frigate Deployment or 4 Dice on OSRCT Stations Phase 3 for a 81% chance and an Average DC of 43 to complete that Phase and move forward with a plan goal.
- 1 Die on Railgun Munitions Development to get that done.
- 1 Die on Hallucinogen Countermeasures Development for a 100% chance and a DC of 1 to complete in Carrier.
- 1 Die on Escort Carrier Shipyards Nagoya for a 73% chance and a DC of 28 to complete.
- 3 Dice on Mastadon deployment for a 65% chance and Average DC of 44 because I want to pull the Steel Talons Devil Trigger as soon as possible so they have more infrastructure to work with.
- 5 Dice on Conduct Economic Census for a 96% chance and an Average DC of 28 to get past the highest DC of 250.
Resources: 1020 (15 allocated to the Forgotten) (35 allocated to grants)(+30 from Taxes) (-5 from Resettlement) (-30 from Reconstruction commissions)
Political Support: 54
SCIENCE Meter: 4/4
Free Dice: 7
Erewhon Dice: 1
Tiberium Spread
21.29 Blue Zone
2.16 Green Zone
22.82 Yellow Zone (98 Points of Abatement)
53.73 Red Zone (70 Points of Abatement)
Current Economic Issues:
Housing: +36 (31 population in low quality housing) (-10 per turn from refugees)
Energy: +16 (+4 in reserve)
Logistics: +26 (-7 from raiding) (-7 from military activity)
Food: +22 (+10 in reserve)
Health: +9 (-8 from Wartime Demand) (-10 from Refugees)
Capital Goods: +27 (+101 in reserve) [-10 at End of War (Will go back this turn) ] [+1 in Q1 2061 ]
STUs: +11
Consumer Goods: +37 (-22 from demand spike) (+3 from Private Industry)
Labor: +43
Tiberium Processing Capacity (1925/2470)
Labor Per Turn: +4
Taxation Per Turn: +30
Space Mining Per Turn: +75
Green Zone Water: +6
[X] Plan Running on Glass v1.4 Carrier:
-[X] Infrastructure 6/6 Dice 115 Resources:
--[X] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6) 220/300 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 3) 72/160 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Suborbital Shuttle Service (Phase 1) 92/200 30 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 60 Resources
--[X] Bureau of Arcologies (New) -1 Infrastructure Die, -2 to Infrastructure Dice, -15 RpT
-[X] Heavy Industry 5/5 Dice + 3 Free Dice 210 Resources:
--[X] Crystal Beam Industrial Laser Deployment (New) 0/600 20 Resources per Die, 5 Dice = 100 Resources
--[X] Isolinear Chip Foundry Anadyr 85/320 50 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 100 Resources
--[X] Division of Alternative Energy -10 RpT, -1 Heavy Industry Die
-[X] Light and Chemical Industry 5/5 55 Resources:
--[X] Chemical Fertilizer Plants (Phase 2) 276/300 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
--[X] Civilian Support Expansion (Phase 1) (New) 0/250 10 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 40 Resources
-[X] Agriculture 4/4 Dice + 1 Free Dice 50 Resources:
--[X] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 4) 75/140 10 Resources per Die, 3 Dice = 30 Resources
--[X] Freeze Dried Food Plants 151/200 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Extra Large Food Stockpiles 1 Die
-[X] Tiberium 7/7 Dice 150 Resources:
--[X] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 7) 78/100 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
--[X] Red Zone Border Offensives (Stage 1) (Updated) 0/250 25 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 100 Resources
--[X] Liquid Tiberium Power Cell Deployment (Phase 1) 41/140 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Tiberium Harvesting Claws Development (Tech) (New) 0/80 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
-[X] Orbital Industry 6/6 Dice + Erewhon Die 120 Resources:
--[X] Orbital Cleanup (Stage 11) 32/85 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2) 278/310 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 4) 25/365 20 Resources per Die, 3 Dice + Erewhon Die = 80 Resources
-[X] Services 5/5 Dice 185 Resources:
--[X] Professional Sports Programs 0/250 10 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 10 Resources
--[X] Hallucinogen Development (Tech) 0/60 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
--[X] Pinhole Portal Early Primitive Prototype Construction (Tech) 56/180 100 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 100 Resources
--[X] NOD Research Initiatives (New) 0/200 30 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 60 resources
-[X] Military 8/8 Dice + 2 Free Die 135 Resources:
--[X] Railgun Munitions Development 38/60 10 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 10 Resources
--[X] Hallucinogen Countermeasures Development (Tech) 0/40 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
--[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (High Priority) Nagoya 171/240 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (High Priority) New York 0/240 20 Resources per Die, 3 Dice = 60 Resources
--[X] Mastodon Heavy Assault Walker Deployment (High Priority) 0/225 10 Resources per Die, 3 Dice = 30 Resources
-[X]Bureaucracy 4/4 Dice + 1 Free Die:
--[X] Conduct Economic Census 5 Dice DC 250
115+210+55+50+150+120+185+135 = 1020/1020
[X] Plan Running on Glass v1.4 Frigate:
-[X] Infrastructure 6/6 Dice 115 Resources:
--[X] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6) 220/300 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 3) 72/160 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Suborbital Shuttle Service (Phase 1) 92/200 30 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 60 Resources
--[X] Bureau of Arcologies (New) -1 Infrastructure Die, -2 to Infrastructure Dice, -15 RpT
-[X] Heavy Industry 5/5 Dice + 3 Free Dice 210 Resources:
--[X] Crystal Beam Industrial Laser Deployment (New) 0/600 20 Resources per Die, 5 Dice = 100 Resources
--[X] Isolinear Chip Foundry Anadyr 85/320 50 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 100 Resources
--[X] Division of Alternative Energy -10 RpT, -1 Heavy Industry Die
-[X] Light and Chemical Industry 5/5 55 Resources:
--[X] Chemical Fertilizer Plants (Phase 2) 276/300 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
--[X] Civilian Support Expansion (Phase 1) (New) 0/250 10 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 40 Resources
-[X] Agriculture 4/4 Dice + 1 Free Dice 50 Resources:
--[X] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 4) 75/140 10 Resources per Die, 3 Dice = 30 Resources
--[X] Freeze Dried Food Plants 151/200 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Extra Large Food Stockpiles 1 Die
-[X] Tiberium 7/7 Dice 150 Resources:
--[X] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 7) 78/100 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
--[X] Red Zone Border Offensives (Stage 1) (Updated) 0/250 25 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 100 Resources
--[X] Liquid Tiberium Power Cell Deployment (Phase 1) 41/140 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Tiberium Harvesting Claws Development (Tech) (New) 0/80 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
-[X] Orbital Industry 6/6 Dice + Erewhon Die 120 Resources:
--[X] Orbital Cleanup (Stage 11) 32/85 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2) 278/310 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 4) 25/365 20 Resources per Die, 3 Dice + Erewhon Die = 80 Resources
-[X] Services 5/5 Dice 180 Resources:
--[X] Professional Sports Programs 0/250 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Pinhole Portal Early Primitive Prototype Construction (Tech) 56/180 100 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 100 Resources
--[X] NOD Research Initiatives (New) 0/200 30 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 60 resources
-[X] Military 8/8 Dice + 2 Free Die 140 Resources:
--[X] Railgun Munitions Development 38/60 10 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 10 Resources
--[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (High Priority) Nagoya 171/240 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Shark Class Frigate Shipyard (Seattle) 0/300 20 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 80 Resources
--[X] Mastodon Heavy Assault Walker Deployment (High Priority) 0/225 10 Resources per Die, 3 Dice = 30 Resources
-[X]Bureaucracy 4/4 Dice + 1 Free Die:
--[X] Conduct Economic Census 5 Dice DC 250
115+210+55+50+150+120+180+140 = 1020/1020
[X] Plan Running on Glass v1.4 Intercept:
-[X] Infrastructure 6/6 Dice 115 Resources:
--[X] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6) 220/300 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 3) 72/160 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Suborbital Shuttle Service (Phase 1) 92/200 30 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 60 Resources
--[X] Bureau of Arcologies (New) -1 Infrastructure Die, -2 to Infrastructure Dice, -15 RpT
-[X] Heavy Industry 5/5 Dice + 3 Free Dice 210 Resources:
--[X] Crystal Beam Industrial Laser Deployment (New) 0/600 20 Resources per Die, 5 Dice = 100 Resources
--[X] Isolinear Chip Foundry Anadyr 85/320 50 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 100 Resources
--[X] Division of Alternative Energy -10 RpT, -1 Heavy Industry Die
-[X] Light and Chemical Industry 5/5 55 Resources:
--[X] Chemical Fertilizer Plants (Phase 2) 276/300 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
--[X] Civilian Support Expansion (Phase 1) (New) 0/250 10 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 40 Resources
-[X] Agriculture 4/4 Dice + 1 Free Dice 50 Resources:
--[X] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 4) 75/140 10 Resources per Die, 3 Dice = 30 Resources
--[X] Freeze Dried Food Plants 151/200 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Extra Large Food Stockpiles 1 Die
-[X] Tiberium 7/7 Dice 150 Resources:
--[X] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 7) 78/100 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
--[X] Red Zone Border Offensives (Stage 1) (Updated) 0/250 25 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 100 Resources
--[X] Liquid Tiberium Power Cell Deployment (Phase 1) 41/140 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Tiberium Harvesting Claws Development (Tech) (New) 0/80 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
-[X] Orbital Industry 6/6 Dice + Erewhon Die 120 Resources:
--[X] Orbital Cleanup (Stage 11) 32/85 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2) 278/310 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 4) 25/365 20 Resources per Die, 3 Dice + Erewhon Die = 80 Resources
-[X] Services 5/5 Dice 180 Resources:
--[X] Professional Sports Programs 0/250 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Pinhole Portal Early Primitive Prototype Construction (Tech) 56/180 100 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 100 Resources
--[X] NOD Research Initiatives (New) 0/200 30 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 60 resources
-[X] Military 8/8 Dice + 2 Free Die 140 Resources:
--[X] Orbital Strike Regimental Combat Team Stations (Phase 3) 5/295 20 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 80 Resources
--[X] Railgun Munitions Development 38/60 10 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 10 Resources
--[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (High Priority) Nagoya 171/240 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
--[X] Mastodon Heavy Assault Walker Deployment (High Priority) 0/225 10 Resources per Die, 3 Dice = 30 Resources
-[X]Bureaucracy 4/4 Dice + 1 Free Die:
--[X] Conduct Economic Census 5 Dice DC 250
155+210+55+50+150+120+180+140 = 1020/1020
So the differences between the 3 plans are that Carrier also does Halucinogens both in Services and in Military and that each plan does 1 thing different in Military: Carrier does another Carrier Shipyard, Frigate does the last Frigate Shipyard and Intercept does the Phase 3 of OSRCT Stations:
- 1 Die on Yellow Zone Fortress Towns for a 68% chance and a DC of 33 to complete Phase 6.
- 2 Die on Blue Zone Apartment Complexes for a 99% chance and an Average DC of 3 to complete Phase 3 and a 7% chance and an Average DC of 83 to complete Phase 4 and be done with this plan goal. We will probably need one more Die on this action next turn.
- 2 Die on Suborbital Shuttle Service for a 97% chance and an Average DC of 13 to complete Phase 1 and get the Himmalayan Blue Zone some logistical support.
- 1 Die on Bureau of Arcologies so we are always building at least a small amount of High Quality Housing so that we don't have to do Housing actions every turn.
- 5 Dice on Crystal Beam Industrial Laser Deployment to get so it can be finished or slow-rolled next turn.
- 2 Die on Anadyr for a 8% chance and an Average DC of 89 to complete. Probably finished next turn with another Die.
- 1 Die on Division of Alternative Energy so we have enough Energy in case everything that can completes this turn and so we build some amount of Energy each turn.
- 1 Die on Chemical Fertilizer Plants for a 100% chance and a DC of 1 to complete it and get the Food from it.
- 4 Dice on Civilian Support Expansion because while not a plan goal this one is urgent if we want to take as many refugees in as properly as possible and make it so Initiative First loses even more political ground. No I don't expect this to help with Reynaldo unless we roll a crit.
- 3 Dice onBlue Zone Aquaponics Bays for a 100% chance and an Average DC of 1 to complete Phase 4 and a 74% chance and an Average DC of 40 to complete Phase 5 and get us enough food to offset the Extra Large Food Stockpiles.
- 1 Die on Freeze Dried Food Plants if we can take that action next turn. 91% chance and a DC of 10 to complete if nothing has changed.
- 1 Die on Extra Large Food Stockpiles to get that done and start building towards the stockpile goal properly.
- 1 Die on Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting for a 100% chance and a DC of 1 to complete Stage 7 and a 33% chance and a DC of 68 to complete Stage 8 if we also complete Phase 6 of Yellow Zone Fortress Towns.
- 4 Dice on Red Zone Border Offensives currently for a 99% chance and an Average DC of 20 to complete Stage 1 and get us +2 Energy and Super Glaciers. Will make it easier to do Stage 2 next turn.
- 1 Die on Liquid Tiberium Power Cell Deployment for a 56% chance and a DC of 45 to deploy some Energy in this emergency of having too much crap to rapidly build in Heavy Industry.
- 1 Die on Tiberium Harvesting Claws for a 80% chance and a DC of 21 to develop an improvement to Tiberium Mines so they can be worked on soon.
- 2 Die on Orbital Cleanup for a 100% chance and an Average DC of 1 to complete Stage 11 and a 76% chance and an Average DC of 36 ro complete Orbital Cleanup and get us that +5 Political Support to offset the Liquid Tiberium Power Cells.
- 1 Die on Lunar Regolith Harvesting for a 100% chance and a DC of 1 to complete Phase 2.
- 3 Dice and an Erewhon Die on Lunar Heavy Metals Mines for a 22% chance and an Average DC of 62 to complete and be done with until the next Phase of Enterprise is done and as such have better foundations for both colonization and actions until the end of this plan.
- 2 Die on Professional Sports Programs for a 2% chance and an Average DC of 91 to complete this turn in case of Frigate and Intercept plans. We need the PS people and with the war winding down we have the option to spend some Health for 10 PS and we will complete this one next turn if it is not done this turn.
- 1 Die on Hallucinogen Development for a 88% chance and a DC of 18 to complete in Carrier.
- 1 Die on Pinhole Portal Early Primitive Prototype Construction for a 19% chance and a DC of 82 to complete with this plan. This is an expensive bastard of an action.
- 2 Die on NOD Research Initiatives for a 32% chance and an Average DC of 61 to complete this with a slow roll. We don't have the Dice or the Resources for more this turn.
- 3 Dice on either Escort Carrier Shipyards New York for a 54% chance and an Average DC of 49 to complete in Carrier plan or 4 Dice on Shark Class Frigate Shipyards Seattle (hi @uju32) for a 64% chance and an Average DC of 46 to complete the Shark Frigate Deployment or 4 Dice on OSRCT Stations Phase 3 for a 81% chance and an Average DC of 43 to complete that Phase and move forward with a plan goal.
- 1 Die on Railgun Munitions Development to get that done.
- 1 Die on Hallucinogen Countermeasures Development for a 100% chance and a DC of 1 to complete in Carrier.
- 1 Die on Escort Carrier Shipyards Nagoya for a 73% chance and a DC of 28 to complete.
- 3 Dice on Mastadon deployment for a 65% chance and Average DC of 44 because I want to pull the Steel Talons Devil Trigger as soon as possible so they have more infrastructure to work with.
- 5 Dice on Conduct Economic Census for a 96% chance and an Average DC of 28 to get past the highest DC of 250.
- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
[chuckles]
I've been teaching math for ten years, HousePet, and my background before that is in physics. Dig back and you'll find some of the analyses I've done in-thread, though they're not threadmarked.
As a suggestion, you can keep the simplicity, but cut the didactic self-referential bits. The parts where you explain why you "might" come across as condescending are more condescending in tone than most of the stuff you were trying to explain.
Ah... no.
What I'm actually thinking is that in PlanQuest games such as this one, the fundamental building block of all accomplishments is the die, and the metaphorical energy that activates a die in order to accomplish things is 'Resources.' Or budget, money, whatever you're calling it.
You have entirely misread the point of the exercise here.
The point is not to make major deviations from the plan for the sake of low-probability notional tigers.
The point is that we are under two opposing pressures and must find a balance point between them.
...
We are under pressure to hurry up and deliver results. This is most conspicuous in the form of Plan deadlines, but is constantly felt at all times. None of us would normally delay a project on purpose if we could just as easily get it done quickly at equal cost, with rare exceptions (for instance, knowing that the Navy is unlikely to be ready to attack Karachi until late 2063, we might want to deliberately delay deploying certain secret weapons until just before that time, so that Nod is less likely to learn we have them and prepare countermeasures).
At the same time, we are under pressure to accomplish as much as possible. We measure accomplishment in terms of number of projects completed, so this translates into pressure to maximize the indicator "number and importance of projects completed," subject to whatever constraints apply.
In this case, our main constraints are twofold. One is a very inflexible dice budget (we have few or no options for increasing total number of dice, and few acceptably cheap options for increasing the efficiency of each die at performing tasks, having already picked most of the available low-hanging fruit). The other is a moderately expandable Resource budget (which lets us supply 'activation energy' to our dice more consistently, and to activate greater numbers of them to do finer and more impactful things).
...
Which of these two pressures dominates will color what we decide to do in any given situation.
For instance, sometimes a project is of the utmost urgency. For instance, if we are rushing to complete a major project in the last quarter before the Plan ends, "there is no tomorrow." The project will almost certainly have to be abandoned for quite some time for lack of Resources to activate dice, and this encourages us to make haste.
Haste, famously, makes waste. Or rather, in this case, justifies waste. Expending more resources simply to have a somewhat greater certainty of achieving a goal very quickly makes a lot of sense, if one must either achieve the goal quickly or not achieve it at all.
On the other hand, sometimes a project has no associated urgency, or at any rate there is plenty of time to fulfill it at one's leisure. In this case, the priority is economy of force. Expending more resources than necessary to complete the project means that some other project will languish or be delayed for lack of opportunity and the means to begin it. A die spend on Anadyr is not available to spend on industrial lasers or on vitally necessary fusion reactors that power war factories we must complete, and soon. The Resources that fund that Anadyr die could instead have funded a die on fusion or industrial lasers, with 30 R left over which could in turn, say, be used to roll a tech gacha die.
On the other hand, as noted, sometimes you spend as much as you have to to get a project completed now. In some situations, we expend dice and Resources profligately to conserve time. In others, we expend time profligately to conserve Resources and dice.
This, not my ignorance of how a Gaussian distribution works, motivates my actions.
...
By the way, have you noticed that my Plan drafts always have percentile chances associated with actions? That's not just because I'm blindly copying them from @Derpmind 's excellent information charts. I often compute my own, either because I am doing things she sensibly doesn't bother with (such as computing the impact of an Erewhon or Administrative Assistance die on a project), or because I want to be very sure of the results, or because I am contemplating a project she has yet to add to her roster.
And I take those percentile chances damn seriously. You will never hear me say "7% is unlikely but hey, it's a chance." You will often hear me say "60% is reasonable likelihood, but don't bet anything you can't afford to lose on a 60% chance." I am not a caveman, HousePet, and if you'd been listening to me all this time you'd probably know that by now.
Your quite pronounced lack of respect suggests to me that you may not have fully taken the time and effort to appreciate the reasons why I do things, which may explain why, well, here we are.
You are correct. It does not. However, other circumstances may influence whether it is better to spend the dice all together or separately.
In a normal project, something with a cost per die of at most 20 R, we can usually fund as many dice on the project as we want, if we think it's important. Our average budget per die is nearly 20 R anyway, give or take a little, for now. It goes up and down with time, but the underlying point remains- we can fund "average-cost" projects heavily and spend many dice on them.
This often incentivizes us to spend extra dice "just to be sure." For instance, I have drafted many plan drafts that spend four dice on a frigate yard to give it a probability of single-turn completion around 60% or more. This is because I want the frigate yard in a hurry, and I do not consider the extra die and extra 20 R to be too great a sacrifice for a +50% or so chance of completion.
But at another time, I may NOT want the frigate yard in a hurry. I may specifically want to postpone completion, say because I don't think we'll be able to generate enough electricity to power it right away anyhow and thus there is no reason to rush. In those cases, I spend two or three dice. This is deliberate- it positions us such that a typical median or near-median result on the aforementioned Gaussian distribution will make it easy and cheap to complete the project in the following turn, but makes it unlikely that we will have to pay the full costs of completing the project immediately, before we are ready.
Anadyr complicates this picture further, because funding even one Anadyr die means taking a lot of funding (real or potential) from other projects. If I roll one Anadyr die instead of two, I have 30 R more to play with now, because that other die is now being used to do something else, something much cheaper.
If there is plenty of time to complete Anadyr, but funds to complete Anadyr with are scarce, it thus makes sense to be slow to spend the funds, so that other projects may complete more quickly. Because every point of Resources not spent on Anadyr immediately can instead be spent on something else; this is a zero-sum game. Sometimes, it is genuinely worthwhile to rush another project (say, tendril harvesters) to completion at the expense of slow progress on Anadyr.
(Note that if tendril harvesting was not available as an option, I would probably be in a position to consider three dice on Anadyr- and I might well take up that offer, though it is far more likely that I would use the freed-up Resources on funding the research gachas.)
...
In my considered opinion, it is well worth waiting until Q3 to finish Anadyr. But it would be bad to leave Anadyr unfinished in Q4, because we want to be insulated against 'tiger' events in Q4 causing Anadyr to not finish. We want Anadyr safely immune from any plausible misfortunes by then, to avoid the political fallout of failing to complete such a sensitive and important project on schedule.
All my own efforts are aimed towards maximizing the probability of completing Anadyr by Q3, without having to sacrifice more other projects and impose more opportunity costs than necessary. Thus, the Q1 'sprint' followed by the slow walk to the destination, which is overwhelmingly likely to reach that destination by Q3. If I had virtually unlimited R budget, I'd happily roll a third Anadyr die right now, because it is true that two dice are very unlikely to be enough. But I do not have unlimited budget, and I don't value hurrying to finish the project in Q1 enough to justify sacrificing the opportunity costs required to scrape loose another 50 R and a Heavy Industry die.
Because while you might not regret those opportunity costs, I would.
The problem with your analysis is that you are considering that single project in a vacuum. But in the context of something like Anadyr, the reward of slow-walking the project to completion is considerable. Namely, that some other, entirely different project may complete a turn sooner.
Because I did not roll a third Anadyr die, I can afford to roll a second Nod/Scrin gacha die. Having more budget available to do other, entirely different projects can complete those projects faster and let us reap those rewards, even as the rewards of Anadyr are delayed.
The problem is that we have so many desirable projects on tap that almost nothing Anadyr could immediately offer us would be enough to justify putting aside all the other stuff we're already planning to do. Rushing to complete Anadyr at the cost of delaying whatever else is in the queue isn't necessarily helping matters.
As you say, "make sure that we have time for that project to take another half a year to complete as we slow-walk it to completion." I did. That's the point of planning around spending two dice in Q1, probably one in Q2 (assuming a median Q1 result), and potentially one in Q3 (assuming a median Q2 result). Deviations from median outcomes in Q1 might result in rolling two dice in Q2 (because of the pointlessly low chance of success), or in a single Q2 die being reliably enough to complete the project (say, if we roll double '70s and stack +190 Progress or so on the project all at once).
But my plan is very much based around the median expected completion time being "three dice from now" and that being in Q2, while the "unlucky but not preposterously so" time is Q3.
You seem to be simultaneously hurrying up to finish the project with multiple dice spent at any time... and acting as if the project can be put on hold by crafting plans that include no dice for it, unless I misremember, which I might, admittedly.
Because I am trying to be confident of finishing Anadyr by 2061Q3 without wasting any dice on it, I am not deducting the second Anadyr die.
I empathize with the pain you are feeling, but it's just that goddamn close, what with the research gacha. I am running out of things to sacrifice here.
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[X] Plan Attempting To Supply The Canned Beans
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- Pronouns
- He/It/Argh!
No, I am simultaneously confused as to why you keep claiming that spending 2 dice on Anadyr Q1 then 1 die in Q2 results is strictly better compared to 1 die in Q1 and 2 dice in Q2, while also saying that you wouldn't mind doing 3 dice in Q2 instead.
I'm also a bit confused that a maths teacher would let someone waste their time trying to explain gaussian statistics to an unknown audience if it wasn't needed, and then accuse them of having a lack of respect.
[X] Plan Attempting To Supply The Canned Beans
This plan makes one change, it replaces a laser die with Advanced Alloys for two reasons:
Alloys might have a low enough Progres cost that doing this might be worth it as it reduces all progress costs but will cost a lot of STUs
The second reason is that it is a tech that might improve Improved Continuous Cycle Fusion Development as stronger alloys might allow a reactor to work at a higher temperature and make the alloys available for the new military vehicles we will develop like the Governor A Development once the frigates and carriers have been build.
[X] Plan Attempting To Supply The Canned Beans with alloys
Infrastructure (+34) 6/6 Dice 100 R
-[X] Suborbital Shuttle Service (Phase 1) 92/200 (2 Dice, 60 R) (97% chance)
-[X] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 3+4+5) 72/480 (4 Dice, 40 R) (Phase 3, 97% chance of Phase 4, 18% chance of Phase 5)
Heavy Industry (+29) 5/5 Dice 155 R
-[X] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant (Phase 8) 67/300 (2 Dice, 40 R) (9% chance)
-[X] Isolinear Chip Foundry Anadyr 85/320 (2 Dice, 100 R) (8% chance)
-[X] Advanced Alloys Development 1 die 15R 30%
Light and Chemical Industry (+24) 5/5 Dice 55 R
-[X] Chemical Fertilizer Plants (Phase 2) 276/300 (1 Die, 15 R) (100% chance)
-[X] Civilian Support Expansion (Phase 1) 0/250 (4 Dice, 40 R) (86% chance)
Agriculture (+24) 4/4 Dice + 2 Free Dice 80 R
-[X] Freeze Dried Food Plants 151/200 (1 Die, 20 R) (91% chance)
-[X] Agriculture Mechanization Projects (Phase 1) 0/150 (2 Dice, 30 R) (63% chance)
-[X] Strategic Food Stockpile Construction (Phase 2+3) 38/150 (3 Dice, 30 R) (99% chance of Phase 2, 18% chance of Phase 3)
Tiberium (+39) 7/7 Dice + 2 Free Die 255 R
-[X] Harvesting Tendril Deployment (Phase 1) 0/600 (8 Dice, 240 R) (95% chance)
-[X] Tiberium Harvesting Claws Development 0/80 (1 Die, 15 R) (80% chance, with Seo bonus)
Orbital (+26) 6/6 Dice 120 R
-[X] GDSS Enterprise (Phase 5) 102/1535 (3 Dice, 60 R) (3/17.5 median)
-[X] Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting (Phase 1+2) 45/265 (2 Dice, 40 R) (96.5% chance of Phase 1, 12% chance of Phase 2)
-[X] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2) 276/310 (1 Die, 20 R) (98% chance)
Services (+27) 2/5 Dice 60 R
-[X] NOD Research Initiatives (2 Dice, 60 R) (31% chance if we get Seo's +5 to research, 23% chance if not)
Military (+26) 8/8 Dice + 3 Free Dice 185 R
-[X] Bogatyr Research Projects 0/120 (1 Die, 30 R) (27% chance with Seo's +5, 22% without)
-[X] Skywatch Telescope System 64/95 (1 Die, 10 R) (100% chance)
-[X] Hallucinogen Countermeasures Development 0/40 (1 Die, 15 R) (100% chance)
-[X] Railgun Munitions Development 38/60 (1 Die, 10 R) (100% chance)
-[X] Mastodon Heavy Assault Walker Deployment 0/225 (2 Dice, 20 R) (9.5% chance)
-[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (Nagoya) 171/240 (1 Die, 20 R) (73% chance)
-[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (Dublin) 0/240 (2 Dice, 40 R) (4% chance)
-[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (New York) 0/240 (2 Dice, 40 R) (4% chance)
Bureaucracy 4/4 + EREWHON!!!
-[X] Conduct Economic Census DC 100/150/200/250 (4+E Dice) (88.5% chance of DC 250, 97.8% chance of DC 200, 99.8% chance of DC 150)
Budget:
1010/1020 R
7/7 Free Dice
This plan makes one change, it replaces a laser die with Advanced Alloys for two reasons:
Alloys might have a low enough Progres cost that doing this might be worth it as it reduces all progress costs but will cost a lot of STUs
The second reason is that it is a tech that might improve Improved Continuous Cycle Fusion Development as stronger alloys might allow a reactor to work at a higher temperature and make the alloys available for the new military vehicles we will develop like the Governor A Development once the frigates and carriers have been build.
[X] Plan Attempting To Supply The Canned Beans with alloys
Infrastructure (+34) 6/6 Dice 100 R
-[X] Suborbital Shuttle Service (Phase 1) 92/200 (2 Dice, 60 R) (97% chance)
-[X] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 3+4+5) 72/480 (4 Dice, 40 R) (Phase 3, 97% chance of Phase 4, 18% chance of Phase 5)
Heavy Industry (+29) 5/5 Dice 155 R
-[X] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant (Phase 8) 67/300 (2 Dice, 40 R) (9% chance)
-[X] Isolinear Chip Foundry Anadyr 85/320 (2 Dice, 100 R) (8% chance)
-[X] Advanced Alloys Development 1 die 15R 30%
Light and Chemical Industry (+24) 5/5 Dice 55 R
-[X] Chemical Fertilizer Plants (Phase 2) 276/300 (1 Die, 15 R) (100% chance)
-[X] Civilian Support Expansion (Phase 1) 0/250 (4 Dice, 40 R) (86% chance)
Agriculture (+24) 4/4 Dice + 2 Free Dice 80 R
-[X] Freeze Dried Food Plants 151/200 (1 Die, 20 R) (91% chance)
-[X] Agriculture Mechanization Projects (Phase 1) 0/150 (2 Dice, 30 R) (63% chance)
-[X] Strategic Food Stockpile Construction (Phase 2+3) 38/150 (3 Dice, 30 R) (99% chance of Phase 2, 18% chance of Phase 3)
Tiberium (+39) 7/7 Dice + 2 Free Die 255 R
-[X] Harvesting Tendril Deployment (Phase 1) 0/600 (8 Dice, 240 R) (95% chance)
-[X] Tiberium Harvesting Claws Development 0/80 (1 Die, 15 R) (80% chance, with Seo bonus)
Orbital (+26) 6/6 Dice 120 R
-[X] GDSS Enterprise (Phase 5) 102/1535 (3 Dice, 60 R) (3/17.5 median)
-[X] Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting (Phase 1+2) 45/265 (2 Dice, 40 R) (96.5% chance of Phase 1, 12% chance of Phase 2)
-[X] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2) 276/310 (1 Die, 20 R) (98% chance)
Services (+27) 2/5 Dice 60 R
-[X] NOD Research Initiatives (2 Dice, 60 R) (31% chance if we get Seo's +5 to research, 23% chance if not)
Military (+26) 8/8 Dice + 3 Free Dice 185 R
-[X] Bogatyr Research Projects 0/120 (1 Die, 30 R) (27% chance with Seo's +5, 22% without)
-[X] Skywatch Telescope System 64/95 (1 Die, 10 R) (100% chance)
-[X] Hallucinogen Countermeasures Development 0/40 (1 Die, 15 R) (100% chance)
-[X] Railgun Munitions Development 38/60 (1 Die, 10 R) (100% chance)
-[X] Mastodon Heavy Assault Walker Deployment 0/225 (2 Dice, 20 R) (9.5% chance)
-[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (Nagoya) 171/240 (1 Die, 20 R) (73% chance)
-[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (Dublin) 0/240 (2 Dice, 40 R) (4% chance)
-[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (New York) 0/240 (2 Dice, 40 R) (4% chance)
Bureaucracy 4/4 + EREWHON!!!
-[X] Conduct Economic Census DC 100/150/200/250 (4+E Dice) (88.5% chance of DC 250, 97.8% chance of DC 200, 99.8% chance of DC 150)
Budget:
1010/1020 R
7/7 Free Dice
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Oledoms
Friesmancer
While I am reluctant to vote for any plan without any Improved Fusion Reactor. @Simon_Jester 's plan is really good so I will change my vote for his because Agri Mech (Wohoo!)
[x] Attempting To Supply The Canned Beans
[X] Plan Dawn of the Final Year, Carrier Focus
[x] Attempting To Supply The Canned Beans
[X] Plan Dawn of the Final Year, Carrier Focus
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- Location
- Wall Gazing
Four Year Plan Required Dice as of the start of Q1 2061.
-All dice estimates are calculated based on the present respective die bonus.
-The total dice numbers at the bottom of each section are the dice requirements for the Required and Semi Required Projects combined.
-Required Projects are those that must be completed for the Plan.
-Semi Required Projects are those that should be completed, but are not technically mandatory for the completion of the Plan. These projects provide efficient methods to achieve the economic targets or otherwise reduce/mitigate the economic costs of the other required and semi required projects.
Any questions/comments are welcome.
Note: I have provided the die minimalist approach to the Food Reserve situation as that is the whole point of these Required Dice posts, however such an approach would cost us 15 PS. I don't think that is acceptable going into Reallocation and the new Plan, but it is there as a 'break glass' kind of deal if we roll amazingly poorly or if a crisis occurs and we can't afford the free dice in Agriculture. As such I have also noted the alternative die requirements for a strategy that does not use CRP or E-CRP.
- Infrastructure Projects
- Heavy Industry Projects
- Light and Chemical Industry Projects
- Agricultural Projects
- Tiberium Projects
- Orbital Projects
- Military Projects
- Economic Targets/Factors
- Dice Required Summary
-All dice estimates are calculated based on the present respective die bonus.
-The total dice numbers at the bottom of each section are the dice requirements for the Required and Semi Required Projects combined.
-Required Projects are those that must be completed for the Plan.
-Semi Required Projects are those that should be completed, but are not technically mandatory for the completion of the Plan. These projects provide efficient methods to achieve the economic targets or otherwise reduce/mitigate the economic costs of the other required and semi required projects.
Any questions/comments are welcome.
Note: I have provided the die minimalist approach to the Food Reserve situation as that is the whole point of these Required Dice posts, however such an approach would cost us 15 PS. I don't think that is acceptable going into Reallocation and the new Plan, but it is there as a 'break glass' kind of deal if we roll amazingly poorly or if a crisis occurs and we can't afford the free dice in Agriculture. As such I have also noted the alternative die requirements for a strategy that does not use CRP or E-CRP.
Nottheunmaker
Altman be praised
- Location
- USG Ishimura
The lack of improved fusion is a point in it's favor for me. I don't really want to start working on that until lasers, Anyder and Bergen are done. Maybe Sparkle Shields as well, but I want to do that at the same time as Buckler Shields for the synergy, and that's a bigger ask to make.
[X] Plan Attempting To Supply The Canned Beans
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I hate to break it to you, but the carrier design phase is over. We're in the building phase, so there's gonna be a refit later anyhow because they aren't going to alter the blueprints and the under construction ships now to incorporate something new.
Unless you're talking about the Guardian Mk II and HAPC, in which case, sure, that could be a good idea. They're already going to be making use of the ferro aluminum armor when designed.
BoSPaladin
The Paladin
[X]Plan Fully Operational Socialist Economy
-[X]Infrastructure (6 dice) 85 R
--[X] Bureau of Arcologies (1 dice, 15 r)
--[X] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6) (2 dice, 40 r)
--[X] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 3) (Updated) (3 Dice, 30 r)
-[X]Heavy Industry (5 dice) 50 R
--[X] Personal Electric Vehicle Plants (New) 0/300 4 dice 40R
--[X] Division of Alternative Energy 1 HI die -10R
-[X]Light and Chemical Industry (5 dice) 55 R
--[X] Chemical Fertilizer Plants (Phase 2) 276/300 1 die 15R
--[X] Civilian Support Expansion (New) 0/250 4 dice 40R
-[X]Agriculture (4 dice+6 Free dice) 165 R
--[X] Agriculture Mechanization Projects (Phase 1) 3 dice 45R
--[X] Ranching Domes 0/250 4 dice 80R
--[X] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 4) 2 dice 20R
--[X] Freeze Dried Food Plants 151/200 1 die 20R
-[X]Tiberium (7 dice) 155 R
--[X] Improved Hewlett Gardener Process Development (New) 0/160 2 dice 40R
--[X] Tiberium Harvesting Claws Development (New) 0/80 1 die 15R
--[X] Red Zone Containment Lines (Stage 6+7) (Updated) 54/450 4 dice 100R
-[X]Orbital (6 dice+1 Free Dice) 120 R
--[X] GDSS Shala (Phase 1) 2 Dice 40 R
--[X] GDSS Columbia (Phase 1) 0/80 2 dice 40 R
--[X] Orbital Cleanup (Stage 11) 32/85 2 dice 20R
--[X] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2) 276/310 1 die 20R
-[X]Services (5 dice) 135 R
--[X] Hallucinogen Development 0/60 1 die 15R
--[X] Scrin Research Institutions (New) 0/400 4 Die 120R
-[X]Military (8 dice) 125 R
--[X] Skywatch Telescope System 64/95 1 die 10R
--[X] Railgun Munitions Development 38/60 1 die 10R 100%
--[X] Hallucinogen Countermeasures Development 0/40 1 die 15R 100%
--[X] Escort Carrier Shipyard (Nagoya) 171/240 1 die 20R
--[X] Ground Forces Zone Armor (Set 1) London 3 dice 60R
--[x] Mastodon Heavy Assault Walker Deployment (New) 1 Dice 10 R
-[X]Bureaucracy (4 dice+1 ErewhonDice)
--[X] Conduct Economic Census DC 100/150/200/250, DC 250 4 dice 1 Erewhon die
Total spend: 890 R
130 R remaining
Activating all dice. Most free dice into agri to keep up with food. Spinning off arcology and energy departments. People want private vehicles so let's go. Making a start on both shala and columbia, doing some orbital cleanup and some moon mining for orbital. Services I decide to save the space on portals to see if by going at the scrin gacha we can get anything there. Also, an easy hallucinogen research die to get started on half of the side of hallucinogens while we also do the countermeasures in military. Military the main thing is 3 dice into a zone armour factory to get that started. We should finish the nagoya shipyard. While also finishing raingun munitions development and skywatch, and for good measure I start mastodons rolling with 1 dice. Finishing with the economic census to see how things are going.
-[X]Infrastructure (6 dice) 85 R
--[X] Bureau of Arcologies (1 dice, 15 r)
--[X] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6) (2 dice, 40 r)
--[X] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 3) (Updated) (3 Dice, 30 r)
-[X]Heavy Industry (5 dice) 50 R
--[X] Personal Electric Vehicle Plants (New) 0/300 4 dice 40R
--[X] Division of Alternative Energy 1 HI die -10R
-[X]Light and Chemical Industry (5 dice) 55 R
--[X] Chemical Fertilizer Plants (Phase 2) 276/300 1 die 15R
--[X] Civilian Support Expansion (New) 0/250 4 dice 40R
-[X]Agriculture (4 dice+6 Free dice) 165 R
--[X] Agriculture Mechanization Projects (Phase 1) 3 dice 45R
--[X] Ranching Domes 0/250 4 dice 80R
--[X] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 4) 2 dice 20R
--[X] Freeze Dried Food Plants 151/200 1 die 20R
-[X]Tiberium (7 dice) 155 R
--[X] Improved Hewlett Gardener Process Development (New) 0/160 2 dice 40R
--[X] Tiberium Harvesting Claws Development (New) 0/80 1 die 15R
--[X] Red Zone Containment Lines (Stage 6+7) (Updated) 54/450 4 dice 100R
-[X]Orbital (6 dice+1 Free Dice) 120 R
--[X] GDSS Shala (Phase 1) 2 Dice 40 R
--[X] GDSS Columbia (Phase 1) 0/80 2 dice 40 R
--[X] Orbital Cleanup (Stage 11) 32/85 2 dice 20R
--[X] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2) 276/310 1 die 20R
-[X]Services (5 dice) 135 R
--[X] Hallucinogen Development 0/60 1 die 15R
--[X] Scrin Research Institutions (New) 0/400 4 Die 120R
-[X]Military (8 dice) 125 R
--[X] Skywatch Telescope System 64/95 1 die 10R
--[X] Railgun Munitions Development 38/60 1 die 10R 100%
--[X] Hallucinogen Countermeasures Development 0/40 1 die 15R 100%
--[X] Escort Carrier Shipyard (Nagoya) 171/240 1 die 20R
--[X] Ground Forces Zone Armor (Set 1) London 3 dice 60R
--[x] Mastodon Heavy Assault Walker Deployment (New) 1 Dice 10 R
-[X]Bureaucracy (4 dice+1 ErewhonDice)
--[X] Conduct Economic Census DC 100/150/200/250, DC 250 4 dice 1 Erewhon die
Total spend: 890 R
130 R remaining
Activating all dice. Most free dice into agri to keep up with food. Spinning off arcology and energy departments. People want private vehicles so let's go. Making a start on both shala and columbia, doing some orbital cleanup and some moon mining for orbital. Services I decide to save the space on portals to see if by going at the scrin gacha we can get anything there. Also, an easy hallucinogen research die to get started on half of the side of hallucinogens while we also do the countermeasures in military. Military the main thing is 3 dice into a zone armour factory to get that started. We should finish the nagoya shipyard. While also finishing raingun munitions development and skywatch, and for good measure I start mastodons rolling with 1 dice. Finishing with the economic census to see how things are going.
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Generally, I'm all for more resource efficiency versus espionage defence at this point with the regency war grinding down, so exchanging the die for harvesting claws seems like a good trade at the moment.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
[X] Plan Dawn of the Final Year
Simon already responded far more eloquently than I ever could, but this definitely comes off kinda condescending. The internet nerd community full of people who spend hundreds of hours of their free time doing imaginary accounting for fake countries can generally be trusted to understand basic statistics. But like Simon said we have much more practical concerns to worry about when doing budgeting than the realm of pure statistical theory, it's almost always concessions to random game events or Resource/available dice constraints within the bounds of a specific tactical situation that we make our decisions on turn to turn. Nobody's disagreeing with you because they're a stupid savannah-dweller who doesn't understand probability, they're disagreeing with you because we have to ration limited Resources across ten different sectors and three dozen different projects, all of which you have to make a subjective, personal judgement on the priority of. Otherwise this game could just be played by an automated spreadsheet and there would be no game at all.
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- Location
- Milky Way
[X] Plan Space Progress Tendrils and Claws also Carriers
-[X]Infrastructure (6/6 dice) 90 Resources
--[X] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6): 220/300, 1 die (20R) 70%
--[X] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 3+4+5) 72/480 (4 Dice, 40 R) (Phase 3, 97% chance of Phase 4, 18% chance of Phase 5)
--[X] Suborbital Shuttle Service (Phase 1): 92/200, 1 die (30R) 42%
-[X]Heavy Industry (5/5 dice) 160 Resources
--[X] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant (Phase 8) 67/300 (2 Dice, 40 R) (9% chance)
--[X] Isolinear Chip Foundry Anadyr 85/320 (2 Dice, 100 R) (8% chance)
--[X] Crystal Beam Industrial Laser Deployment 0/600 (1 Die, 20 R) (1/7.5 median)
-[X]Light and Chemical Industry (5/5 dice) 55 Resources
--[X] Chemical Fertilizer Plants (Phase 2) 276/300 (1 Die, 15 R) (100% chance)
--[X] Civilian Support Expansion (Phase 1) 0/250 (4 Dice, 40 R) (86% chance)
-[X]Agriculture (4/4 dice + 1 Free) 60 Resources
--[X] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 3): 75/140, 1 die (10R) 75%
--[X] Freeze Dried Food Plants: 151/200, 1 die (20R) 91%
--[X] Strategic Food Stockpile Construction (Phase 2): 38/150, 3 dice (30R) 99%
-[X]Tiberium (7/7 dice + 2 Free) 255 Resources
--[X] Harvesting Tendril Deployment (Phase 1): 0/600, 8 dice (240R) 95%
--[X] Tiberium Harvesting Claws Development: 0/80, 1 die (15R) 80%
-[X]Orbital (6/6 dice + 3 Free) 180 Resources
--[X] GDSS Enterprise (Phase 5): 102/1535, 6 dice (120R) 0%
--[X] Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting (Phase 1): 45/140, 2 dice (40R) 96%
--[X] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2): 276/310, 1 die (20R) 100%
-[X]Services (3/5 dice) 90 Resources
--[X] Scrin Research Institutions: 0/400, 3 dice (90R) 0%
-[X]Military (8/8 dice) 130 Resources
--[X] Skywatch Telescope System: 64/95, 1 die (10R) 100%
--[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (Nagoya): 171/240, 1 die (20R) 73%
--[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (Dublin) 0/240 (2 Dice, 40 R) (4% chance)
--[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (New York) 0/240 (2 Dice, 40 R) (4% chance)
--[X] Mastodon Heavy Assault Walker Deployment: 0/225, 2 dice (20R) 9%
-[X]Bureaucracy (4/4 dice + Erewhon)
--[X] Conduct Economic Census, 4 dice + 1 Erewhon die: 93% vs. DC 250, 99% vs. DC 200
-[X]Total Cost: 1020/1020 Resources
-[X]Free Dice: 7/7
-[X]Erewhon: 1/1
Infrastructure
-focusing on housing
-finishing the started Fortress Towns
Heavy Industry
-chipping away at plan goals and energy
Light and Chemical Industry
-finshing Fertilizer for food
-Civilian Support Expansion to produce all the things for the refugees
Agriculture
-Aquaponics for food
-finishing Freeze Dried Food Plants
-building Food Stockpiles
Tiberium
-Rolling out Tendrils
-Claws for the Vein Mines
Orbital
-gets free dice because i thing it needs more focus
-making Progress on Enterprise
-finishng two of three mines
Services
-Scrin Research will hopefully be finishable next turn
-not enough resources for the other dices and Scrin is the most importent Service Project
Military
-finishing Skywatch
-focusing on the Carriers
-begin Rollout of Mastodon
[X] Plan Canned Beans + Scrin Research
-[X]Infrastructure (6/6 dice) 90 Resources
--[X] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6): 220/300, 1 die (20R) 70%
--[X] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 3+4+5) 72/480 (4 Dice, 40 R) (Phase 3, 97% chance of Phase 4, 18% chance of Phase 5)
--[X] Suborbital Shuttle Service (Phase 1): 92/200, 1 die (30R) 42%
-[X]Heavy Industry (5/5 dice) 160 Resources
--[X] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant (Phase 8) 67/300 (2 Dice, 40 R) (9% chance)
--[X] Isolinear Chip Foundry Anadyr 85/320 (2 Dice, 100 R) (8% chance)
--[X] Crystal Beam Industrial Laser Deployment 0/600 (1 Die, 20 R) (1/7.5 median)
-[X]Light and Chemical Industry (5/5 dice) 55 Resources
--[X] Chemical Fertilizer Plants (Phase 2) 276/300 (1 Die, 15 R) (100% chance)
--[X] Civilian Support Expansion (Phase 1) 0/250 (4 Dice, 40 R) (86% chance)
-[X]Agriculture (4/4 dice + 1 Free) 60 Resources
--[X] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 3): 75/140, 1 die (10R) 75%
--[X] Freeze Dried Food Plants: 151/200, 1 die (20R) 91%
--[X] Strategic Food Stockpile Construction (Phase 2): 38/150, 3 dice (30R) 99%
-[X]Tiberium (7/7 dice + 2 Free) 255 Resources
--[X] Harvesting Tendril Deployment (Phase 1): 0/600, 8 dice (240R) 95%
--[X] Tiberium Harvesting Claws Development: 0/80, 1 die (15R) 80%
-[X]Orbital (6/6 dice + 3 Free) 180 Resources
--[X] GDSS Enterprise (Phase 5): 102/1535, 6 dice (120R) 0%
--[X] Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting (Phase 1): 45/140, 2 dice (40R) 96%
--[X] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2): 276/310, 1 die (20R) 100%
-[X]Services (3/5 dice) 90 Resources
--[X] Scrin Research Institutions: 0/400, 3 dice (90R) 0%
-[X]Military (8/8 dice) 130 Resources
--[X] Skywatch Telescope System: 64/95, 1 die (10R) 100%
--[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (Nagoya): 171/240, 1 die (20R) 73%
--[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (Dublin) 0/240 (2 Dice, 40 R) (4% chance)
--[X] Escort Carrier Shipyards (New York) 0/240 (2 Dice, 40 R) (4% chance)
--[X] Mastodon Heavy Assault Walker Deployment: 0/225, 2 dice (20R) 9%
-[X]Bureaucracy (4/4 dice + Erewhon)
--[X] Conduct Economic Census, 4 dice + 1 Erewhon die: 93% vs. DC 250, 99% vs. DC 200
-[X]Total Cost: 1020/1020 Resources
-[X]Free Dice: 7/7
-[X]Erewhon: 1/1
Infrastructure
-focusing on housing
-finishing the started Fortress Towns
Heavy Industry
-chipping away at plan goals and energy
Light and Chemical Industry
-finshing Fertilizer for food
-Civilian Support Expansion to produce all the things for the refugees
Agriculture
-Aquaponics for food
-finishing Freeze Dried Food Plants
-building Food Stockpiles
Tiberium
-Rolling out Tendrils
-Claws for the Vein Mines
Orbital
-gets free dice because i thing it needs more focus
-making Progress on Enterprise
-finishng two of three mines
Services
-Scrin Research will hopefully be finishable next turn
-not enough resources for the other dices and Scrin is the most importent Service Project
Military
-finishing Skywatch
-focusing on the Carriers
-begin Rollout of Mastodon
[X] Plan Canned Beans + Scrin Research
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