@TheLordofAwesome @jonasquinn @Questor Here's a version of post-war events that would more sense to me, given the actual realities each faction is facing. I've been working on it since TheLordofAwesome replied to me about the Abolitionists splintering either yesterday or the day before that. Sorry for the delay!
Factions
The Royal Guard: Though they may have won the war, it sure doesn't feel like it. They've been beaten down, decapitated by the pegasi, and are now facing the prospect of the Abolitionists seizing control of the whole country. With their political relevance slipping fast and fear of increased Imperial influence spreading, they must act quick if they wish to continue the legacy of Mareia!
Abolitionists - Reformist: Having successfully won the war and now in control of most of Maretonia, the Abolitionist coalition has found itself set adrift. It may have held together for the noble cause of abolitionism, but no one can quite agree what to do next. The newly-dubbed Reformists and Imperialists have taken large internal pluralities of the coalition, but there still awaits a significant pool of Undecideds fresh for the taking.
As it stands, the lesser nobility and burghers have begun clamoring for Ambrosia to work towards a monarchy that will enshrine their rights and protections and create a new, bureaucratized system from which the best and most-educated can lead the country. Though warm towards the Gryphonian Empire, they seek a Maretonia that is strong, independent, and able to bring peace and harmony alongside their new feathery partners from the north.
Abolitionists - Imperialist: Having successfully won the war and now in control of most of Maretonia, the Abolitionist coalition has found itself set adrift. It may have held together for the noble cause of abolitionism, but no one can quite agree what to do next. The newly-dubbed Reformists and Imperialists have taken large internal pluralities of the coalition, but there still awaits a significant pool of Undecideds fresh for the taking.
Whether through a genuine idealization of the Gryphonians or a pragmatic belief that only they can rebuild Maretonia to new heights, these Abolitionists seek a unification with the Gryphonian Empire, being inspired by the model province that is the Crystal Protectorate. These ex-slaves and formerly oppressed peasantry of Maretonia believe that the Gryphons have a superior technological and cultural gap that would greatly aid in Maretonia's recovery, bringing stability and prosperity back to its lands. However, they will need to push back against the Reformists and sway the Undecideds if they truly wish for a Union.
House White Star: Of all factions, White Star has truly suffered the worst. They have lost their leader, their forces, their wealth, their land, and now their economic mainstay. Though Countess Copper Top remains a favorite among the Old Guard, such concerns are quickly becoming irrelevant to the new Maretonian political scene dominated by the Abolitionist coalition. The Old Guard that still backs her for a return to the status quo antebellum (minus the slavery of course), as the caste is the rightful way of things. These calls have held little sway and White Star has found itself a sinking ship. Something must be done quickly to save its cause.
Army of Pegicles: Dishonored and leaderless, the pegasi are left without goals or direction. Even with them, they wouldn't have the might left to truly enforce them upon others. The command were killed by Gryphonian bombs, most of the grunts have been imprisoned by the Abolitionists, and a scant few former Royal Guards have been taken by Jewelius to face charges of desertion and treason. The remaining bunch have escaped into the wilds, resorting to banditry and sell-swordery to make ends meet. It would take a true miracle for these lost pegasi to once more rise to glory.
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Potential Outcomes
Rise of the Gutter Queen:
Through charm, guile, and a healthy amount of reconciliation and deal-making, Ambrosia has successfully held together her ragtag coalition of abolitionists to forge it into a true political force to lead Maretonia into an age of prosperity and harmony. Crowned Queen Ambrosia I, the future looks bright for the Maretonians as, for the first time for many, they dream of a future of friendship, peace, and harmony.
Effects: Ambrosia is the new queen. Abolitionists are reforged into a new, stronger party with unifying goals and ideology. Rights of lesser nobility and burghers enshrined into law. Strong trade and investment established with Imperials and high chance of a defensive alliance and furthered partnership in the future. Reactionaries and conservatives sidelined for the moment. Recalcitrant Royal Guard reluctantly swears loyalty. Reactionaries and conservatives refuse to recognize the new monarchy as legitimate.
A New Protectorate: Having successfully swayed the Reformists and Undecideds that the best chance for Maretonia to prosper is with the Gryphons, an Imperial Protectorate has been established over Maretonia at the behest of the Imperialist faction. They have a lot of work to do if they wish to keep it, however. Burdened by promises of prosperity and stability, the Gryphonian Empire will need to act quickly to rebuild Maretonia to new heights if they wish to consolidate their grip over the region.
Effects: Maretonia becomes a protectorate of the Gryphonian Empire. Reactionaries and conservatives are sidelined for the moment. Investment in political, physical, and economic infrastructure needs to be immediate or reactionaries and conservatives will gain support. Royal Guard refuses to swear loyalty to foreigners and disbands as an organization - possible hot spot for future trouble. General populace is cautious but hopeful of their new overlords.
Stinging Maretonia's Rump: Having failed to fully reconcile the two primary factions of her coalition, Ambrosia has had to make strong concessions. In return for the political support of the Imperialist faction, Ambrosia will cede a slice of land along the northern border to be a new Imperial protectorate for any Maretonian citizens or peasantry whom wish to live under the empire or reunite with their families in the Crystal Protectorate. With her position weakened by infighting and the fury of the other factions, Ambrosia can only hope she will manage to consolidate her power quickly enough.
Effects: Ambrosia is the new queen. Abolitionist faction in power but weakened. Limited rights of lesser nobility and burghers enshrined into law. Northern border with Gryphonian Empire shifted south to river. Potential for conservatives and reactionaries to create revanchist sentiment to boost themselves into power. Trade established with Gryphonian Empire. Tenuous chance for investment and alliance with Gryphons due to weakened political position. Royal Guard refuses to swear loyalty to the faction that sold away Maretonian territory and disbands as an organization - potential hot spot for future trouble. Conservatives and reactionaries refuse to recognize the new monarchy as legitimate.
Mareia Walks Once More: Miraculously, Ambrosia and the Reformist faction have managed to find common ground with the Royal Guard and the remnants of House White Star led by Copper Top. With a unity government secured, Queen Copper Top has been coronated and the Legacy of Mareia is secured. Maretonia may face a few bumps on the way there, but there is a happy future to look forward to for most Maretonians.
Effects: Copper Top is the new queen. New moderate faction emerges from the ruins of the Old Guard, the Royal Guard, and the Reformist faction of the Abolitionists. Trade and limited investment established with the Gryphonian Empire. Low chance of strictly defensive alliance in the future. Rights of lesser nobility and burghers enshrined into law. Royal Guard swears loyalty to the new monarchy. Imperialist Abolitionists pushed into stable opposition. Slow process of centralization of powers to the Crown begins. Mareia's legacy secured!
The Army's Pet State: In a move that has surprised everyone, Jewelius has struck a deal with the Old Guard and the remnants of the Army of Pegicles to secure the sovereignty of Maretonia against the Gryphonians and their Abolitionist allies. They have crowned Copper Top as the legitimate queen of Maretonia in what has been viewed by Gryphonian onlookers as a soft coup. Facing mass unrest from the de facto reestablishment of the status quo antebellum and the Gryphonian Empire looking on with a wary eye, this continuation of "Mareia's" legacy seems to have a dark and rocky road ahead of it.
Effects: Copper Top is the new puppet-queen. Anti-Imperialist government established in Maretonia. All Imperials are to leave the country and investment to be gone. Authority centralized in the capital. Stratocracy formed. Former members of Pegicles' army are pardoned in return for loyalty. Former high nobles given prominent positions in the new government. Mass unrest among the general populace. Chance of return to civil war should Jewelius fail to quickly stabilize. Possible chance for warfare with the Gryphonian Empire after rebuilding and rearmament has taken place. Mareia's legacy secured (?)
Maretonia's Warlord Period: Despite Gryphonian intervention, all deal-making has broken down and left Maretonia in a stalemate. Such a situation was never going to last and the battered Maretonians are preparing once more for war, each for their own unique vision of Maretonia.
Effects: Maretonia fragments into multiple warlord states. Recovery set back generations. Famine exacerbated. There are no more clear battle lines to support.
Those Revolting Peasants:
The ceasefires and political maneuverings have broken down and Maretonia has once more descended into chaos. Unable to stand the thought of further warfare and betrayed by Gryphonian inaction, the peasantry and ex-slaves have risen up to take control of multiple spots of authority across the, declaring themselves to be under the legitimate authority of a new form of government they call a "Peasant Republic." They shall no longer slave under the old caste. They have risen up to create a Maretonia by the peasantry, for the peasantry!
Effects: Mass chaos and instability throughout Maretonia. Continued rise in banditry as new republic struggles to make something wholly brand new. Republic turns inward into diplomatic isolationism. High racial strife as furious Earth Ponies strike back at the Unicorns and Pegasi they identity as the source of their historical troubles.
High chance of fragmentation of Maretonia if republic is not consolidated and stabilized.
Increased monster attacks (?)
