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You know I'm not really invested in this debate, but it seems odd to me that the advocates of the plan that includes running into a town crawling with greenskins to start a raging chaotic inferno of collapsing buildings and choking smoke are arguing that this is the safer plan. Yes, miscasts are dangerous, so is rushing into the middle of an enemy encampment with a stealth plan that depends on setting obvious beacons for the enemy to follow.
 
As I said above, the Fire plan is pretty much strictly inferior to:

[] Have the catapults indirect fire incendiaries into Grobit-Town, focused on the region immediately around the avenue.​

And the rest of the war council should immediately point that out if Mathilde suggests it.

We're at the top of a cliff I think, the citadel is how people get out of the caldera. Being attacked from behind is absurdly unlikely as we control the valley, being flanked would require that the orcs climb a cliff, or at least an extremely steep incline, and then the cavalry can deal with them.

Also we're not voting for the campaign plan, just Mathilde's contribution to the planning session.

If we try and set fire to grobi-town there'll be a roll to see if we succeed, if we ritual cast burning shadow there'll be a different roll. I doubt that either is impossible.

The map BoneyM posted seems to show a ledge on the edge of the citadel.

Why would we ritual cast Burning Shadows if it's a roll we might fail when Mathilde can just cast it as a normal spell and it will work fine?

I think you are underestimating the shamans' ability to force their way into a comfy spot of power via their magic. I also think that the shamans have at least some protection against assassins or the Skaven would win every magic fight with the greenskins ever, which does not appear to be the case.

This is based on what I think it says in one of the warhammer army books in the shaman description. The shamans don't really want to live too centrally in case the boys kick off and there's a surge of Waaagh energy...

Using magic is reasonable. Relying on it entirely is not, as Magic is fickle mistress.

Please. Please read the actual plan. Why do you think there's a section that says:

[] Organise to have indirect fire of dwarven catapults firing whatever the engineers think will cause the most havoc arcing over the Citadel into Grobi down timed to a few moment after the Burning Shadows is cast.​

Argue with what I've actually proposed, not a strawman. If the fire plan would work, this one line would accomplish everything it would do, as then the engineers would fire incendiaries.

And as for the the idea that having Mathilde infiltrate Grobi-town and set fires doesn't rely entirely on magic...
 
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Why would we ritual cast Burning Shadows if it's a roll we might fail when Mathilde can just cast it as a normal spell and it will work fine?
Then why is ritual casting it even something the plan considers? Just have Mathilde cast it as a normal spell and not worry about the option of doing ritual casting if both results are acceptable.
 
Yes. Alratan is explicitly working with the artillery crews in this to supplement Burning Shadows, not rely entirely on the spell.
 
Then why is ritual casting it even something the plan considers? Just have Mathilde cast it as a normal spell and not worry about the option of doing ritual casting if both results are acceptable.

I wanted to increase the duration so Mathilde didn't have to stick around if she thought she could do so without meaningful risk of failure so she could exfiltrate. If not, she can cast the normal spell and just hand around touching the Citadel wall under a shadowcloak.
 
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At this point, it's clear we need to wait for BoneM to return before we can make any actual conclusions about any plan. Otherwise it's all just baseless speculation.
Firstly because melting an entire enemy army at once is a really badass visual, and secondly because using it in such a way might let us Master it.

Mastery only happens as a result of a crit and if our QM decides it's an appropriate result.
 
As near as I can tell success/failure is almost entirely dice based?
We're basically arguing about how hard those dice rolls would be for each option and we're missing information to do so.

Why would we ritual cast Burning Shadows if it's a roll we might fail when Mathilde can just cast it as a normal spell and it will work fine?
It's hazy as to what BoneyM will decide but I'm pretty sure that casting on that scale and duration requires ritual casting. (I can't quite remember if we needed to do it for the pile of gold as well)
 
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I wanted to increase the duration so Mathilde didn't have to stick around if she thought she could do so without meaningful risk of failure so she could exfiltrate. If not, she can cast the normal spell and just hand around touching the Citadel wall under a shadowcloak.
But... Burning Shadows doesn't have a duration to increase?
K / Burning Shadows: Causes a shadow or set of touching shadows cast by a source as bright as a torch or brighter to burn like acid. You can specify who this will and will not effect.
- Can effect inanimate objects, but acid is a lot less effective on inanimate objects than it is on living flesh.
- Must specifically be a cast shadow, not merely being in darkness. Think shadow puppets.
- Mathilde must be casting or touching the shadow in question to cast the spell.
As long as she is touching the shadow, Burning Shadows will keep going. Other spells list a duration, so it can be assumed that when a spell doesn't have a duration it will keep going as long as all the requirements are met.
 
I wanted to increase the duration so Mathilde didn't have to stick around if she thought she could do so without meaningful risk of failure so she could exfiltrate. If not, she can cast the normal spell and just hand around touching the Citadel Wall under a shadowcloak.
If both options, ritual casting burning shadows or casting burning shadows repeatedly, have the same effect, why would you ever want to increase the risk for no greater gain. The plan you have written doesn't have Mathilde doing anything after casting the burning shadows. Is there something you want her to do after the casting? If she can just stay hidden casting burning shadows then why ever consider ritual casting?
 
Let me try to correlate the questions that we as a thread want @BoneyM to answer so we can make an informed decision:

• Does Mathilde think that waiting until tomorrow morning would improve the human armies readiness for combat?
• Would waiting until the morning be enough time for the mercenaries to no longer be as effective from their morale boost?
• How difficult does Mathilde expect trying to use the entire shadow of the citadel for Burning Shadows to be?
• Would she feel comfortable attempting to cast the spell after having potentially tired herself by performing ambushes the evening before?
• How flammable does she expect the goblin shantytown to be?
• What kinds of accelerant are available to the expedition to aid in arson?
• Does she think that a firewall would be sufficient to dissuade the goblins and orcs from venturing to the citadel?

Any other questions that people think are relevant?

Edit:

• If we do try to commit arson, what would Mathilde use to set fires?
• Does the belt make her immune to the secondary effects of fire such as carbon monoxide burning?
• To what degree does her ability to sense Uglu let her "see through smoke"?

Edit 2:

• How viabile and effective would Mathilde expect locating and assassinating enemy shaman to be?
• If we scouted the citadel entrance beforehand, would that improve the performance of using explosives to shut it down due to improved placement?

Edit 3:
• You previously mentioned that Black Lotus was the material component for Burning Shadow. To what degree would using Black Lotus simplify casting the spell, compared to our previous castings of it?
 
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Please. Please read the actual plan. Why do you think there's a section that says:

[] Organise to have indirect fire of dwarven catapults firing whatever the engineers think will cause the most havoc arcing over the Citadel into Grobi down timed to a few moment after the Burning Shadows is cast.​

Argue with what I've actually proposed, not a strawman. If the fire plan would work, this one line would accomplish everything it would do.
Fine. I feel like it will go into rabbit hole of back-and-forth focusing on minutae, but fine. Let's try.

You've said:

[] Organise to have indirect fire of dwarven catapults firing whatever the engineers think will cause the most havoc arcing over the Citadel into Grobi down timed to a few moment after the Burning Shadows is cast.

To that I will reply with possibilities:
- Mathilde is detected in camp and needs to run in another direction. Falls apart due Mathilde not being there.
- Mathilde rolls badly on ritual and is incapacitated. Insufficient coverage oposed to purposely burning things. Plus Mathilde likely dies.
- Greenskins uses time we delay attack be and just moves inside of citadel. Strategy is moot.
- Shaman detect her, raises alarm too soon and speed things up. She cannot cast spell with no sun. Plan falls apart.
- She fails to kill all shamans, and one of them counterpell her while she tries to cast ritual. She doesn't cast the spell, and likely dies.

Plan relies on Mathilde and everything she does going well. And no plan survives contact with enemy. If You put sequence of things that need to align perfectly, it will not work, because shit happens.

Plan is tempting, as it makes Mathilde a star of the show and allows her to rank-up kill count. But it is simply is not practical.
 
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1) I believe the Citadel is currently hostile to the greenskins in the town. That won't change in the 12-15 hours I propose we wait. I also believe that Belegar is incorrect that a bunch of human men with no sleep and screwed up sleep patterns will fight at full strength.
I think that in this case you are subscribing problems that do not exist, if the issue of hangovers and lack of sleep for the soldiers existed then I'd imagine that BoneyM would have mentioned it at any point. Hell Mathilde parties and drank just as much, but in the update there seemed to be no ill effects so that complaint seems invalid to me.
2) Greenskins don't like to live anywhere near their shamans, as they don't like randomly exploding anymore than anyone else. As a result shamans have to set up shop on the outside edge of greenskin settlements. That means they will be very easy to assassinate, as there will be very few witnesses, and as a Grey Wizard there should be no alert if she murders them in the night. Theremay also not be any shamans left
Except that with how Goblin Shamans and similar spellcasters fall under the list of potential leader figures it's not unlikely that any that do exist in the town have gathered their own little group or attached themselves to someone who has. In this situation odds are the shaman will not be on the outskirts but instead near a bunch of their Boyz.
3) The Caltrops are a nice to have she only needs a few as a last ditch alert or delay.
Not really, in order to cover the entire path to the citadel we would need a not inconsiderable amount. If I had to guess at least a garbage bag full of them if we wanted to be in anyway thorough.
4) I don't believe we need to ritually cast the spell. I believe that the normal use of the spell would be sufficient. The Citadel's shadow is still a shadow so it falls into the standard spell description, which Mathilde can cast without a roll. Mathilde will also be standing at the base of the citadel, out of the line of sight of both the town and the walls of the Citadel because of the geometry so it's very hard to shoot her. For a decent length of time, she can probably also benefit from Substance of Shadow, as she'll be in deep shadow although that's unnecessary as to reach her would require running through hundreds of meters of Burning Shadow, even seeing her would probably require that from most angles.
If find that this relies on a lot of speculation. For instance the assumption that because of geometry we won't be shot at, I find this highly unlikely as while it would be difficult for the Town Greenskins to shoot at us, it would be relatively easy for the Citadel Orcs to do so.

Why? Well mainly because this is a dwarven citadel and I highly doubt that a Dwarven citadel won't include things such as arrow slits and proper features that enable you to shoot at someone who is up against the wall. This is the biggest vulnerability of this plan beyond the Spell Casting difficulty we'd be completely exposed to the Citadel Orcs if they spot us, especially since they would be inside the Citadel and thus unaffect by Burning Shadow.
 
It's hazy as to what BoneyM will decide but I'm pretty sure that casting on that scale requires ritual casting.

As far as the spell is concerned it's the same scale. One (1) shadow.

But... Burning Shadows doesn't have a duration to increase?

As long as she is touching the shadow, Burning Shadows will keep going. Other spells list a duration, so it can be assumed that when a spell doesn't have a duration it will keep going as long as all the requirements are met.

I may have misunderstood, I was basing it off seeing BoneyM saying that it would increase the duration of other spells. That's partially why I left it up to Mathilde in the vote, as I realised I didn't know quite what the benefit or the risk was, so I delegated to the local expert to decide if it was worth it.

If both options, ritual casting burning shadows or casting burning shadows repeatedly, have the same effect, why would you ever want to increase the risk for no greater gain. The plan you have written doesn't have Mathilde doing anything after casting the burning shadows. Is there something you want her to do after the casting? If she can just stay hidden casting burning shadows then why ever consider ritual casting?

Because then she would be free to respond to emergencies or engage targets of opportunity while the spell kept running, which is something I think BoneyM would have Mathidle do or give us the option to do if something came up.

Any other questions that people think are relevant?

Doe Mathilde have an easy way of creating flame, something better than just making sparks?
Does the belt make her immune to the secondary effects of fire such as carbon monoxide burning?
Can Mathilde see through smoke?

To that I will reply with possibilities:
- Mathilde is detected in camp and needs to run in another direction. Falls apart due Mathilde not being there.
- Mathilde rolls badly on ritual and is incapacitated. Insufficient coverage oposed to purposely burning things. Plus Mathilde likely dies.
- Greenskins uses time we delay attack be and just moves inside of citadel. Strategy is moot.
- Shaman detect her, raises alarm too soon and speed things up. She cannot cast spell with no sun. Plan falls apart.
- She fails to kill all shamans, and one of them counterpell her while she tries to cast ritual. She doesn't cast the spell, and likely dies.

Plan relies on Mathilde and everything she does going well. And no plan survives contact with enemy. If You put sequence of things that need to align perfectly, it will not work, because shit happens.

Plan is tempting, as it makes Mathilde a star of the show and allows her to rank-up kill count. But it is simply is not practical.

1) The first possibility happens with the Fire plan as well, but I have a backup with the catapults.
2) We can be pretty sure there is no need for a ritual, so we can dismiss the second option
3) Not happening. We were told ' Between the recent religious disagreements and the rapid changes in leadership, the greenskins have fragmented into a dozen or more separate groups, and those that held the Citadel will allow none of the others to approach. '
4) If the shamans detect he she just runs, same as 1. Or she tries the spell anyway, and we go to case 5 because 3 still applies.
5) Melting probably makes it hard to counterspell. I f not, same as 1.

In the worst case, we get the same result as the fire plan with less risk to the rangers, simply 18-15 hours later.
 
Some things to consider:
Since Mathilde only needs to touch the Citadel to cast the spell can't she basically stay at the top of the caldera touching it instead of going down to grobi town?

Can't some of the other wizards run a magical overwatch coordinating with the dawi artillery and the archers to take any Shamans who try to dispel?

What are the archers and halflings supposed to do in the battle since they don't seem to be allocated by any plan.


Also Kragg joining in somehow would be useful but he would probably grumble about it.
 
For those who are confused: the citadel is the only significant path from the caldera to the eastern valley overland.

our people are not concerned about getting flanked. They are concerned about having to fight all of grobi town before they can fortify the citadel.
 
Well you see, there is this magical mystical place called The Outside.
And Out There, amazing thing happen. Why I heard they even Grow Trees.
I think we even walked past some on our way here! There were spiders and everything.

Perhaps the best opportunity we'll ever have to make this spell great and we're going to throw it away,
...So? It's a fairly unique opportunity and would be totally badass if we pulled it off, but that in of itself doesn't make it an intrinsically better means of achieving our objective than another plan.

Like, you and other have raised some perfectly reasonable points in favor of Burning Shadows, so I'm not sure why you're choosing to add what feels like "but it would be so cool tho" to that list.
 
Right so given we have talked about using some of our money from the gambling to improve our estate I decided to go back and get the original options list for our land. For those who don't remember we already built a the well, granary, shrine and the blacksmith first then the loom and dairy before we left from the expedition in case anyone wants it.

The Weber Estate
Earmarked Funds: 1,066 gc
Estate Profits: 10 gc / turn
You can spend money instead of turns here to have someone else oversee the work; this will increase the cost by half again, and double any dwarf rep cost. For instance, an option costing 100 gc will cost 150 gc. It also means that your personal stats will not apply to whatever is being done.

[ ] Build a modest home for yourself, equal in size to the rooms you're using in the Sunken Palace (3 rooms, 50 gc).
[ ] Build a large home for yourself, with plenty of spare rooms to expand into (6 rooms, 150 gc).
[ ] Why muck about? Build a proper manor (10 rooms, 300 gc).
[ ] Build a tower, either into an above structure or on its own (1 room, 100 gc, bonus to room's purpose).
[ ] Build fortifications into your home, turning it into a hillfort, or motte (50 gc for wood, 200 gc for stone, optional dwarf help for -1 dwarf rep).
[ ] Erect a shrine to Ranald in honour of his victory over Stromfels, and of Wolf's sacrifice that made it possible. (NEW)
[ ] Use your newly-acquired blacksmithing gear to lure in a skilled but poor blacksmith to begin servicing the area. (no action required) (NEW)
[ ] Build a communal granary to store food for lean times (50 gc).
[ ] Build a well (50 gc).
[ ] Build a bailey for your subjects to shelter in and to encompass other structures (100 gc for wood, 400 gc for stone, optional dwarf help for -1 dwarf rep).
[ ] Have the dwarves build you a fortress. (1000 gc, -2 dwarf rep. Protects but does not build living area. No, there is no cheaper option. If you want cheap, get manlings to build it.)
[ ] Bring in dwarvern prospectors to search for minable metals (-1 Dwarf Rep)
[ ] Bring in dwarvern farmers to investigate the farming possibilities of the land. (-1 Dwarf Rep)
[ ] Improve the road between the Estate and Sonningwiese (50 gc)
[o] Establish upkeep of the roads between the estate and the individual households. (requires a local smith)
[ ] Purchase a loom, erect a building for it, and invite weavers to start calling your estate home. (100 gc)
[ ] Set up a dairy and recruit skilled cheesemakers from among the locals to work in it. (100 gc)
 
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Doe Mathilde have an easy way of creating flame, something better than just making sparks?
Does the belt make her immune to the secondary effects of fire such as carbon monoxide burning?
Can Mathilde see through smoke?

Thanks, added to the list.

Any other questions, from anyone?

E:

I'd add asking about the viability of finding and assassinating all enemy shaman, and if it's possible to scout the citadel entrance to figure out where to use explosives on it.

Added this as well.
 
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I think that in this case you are subscribing problems that do not exist, if the issue of hangovers and lack of sleep for the soldiers existed then I'd imagine that BoneyM would have mentioned it at any point. Hell Mathilde parties and drank just as much, but in the update there seemed to be no ill effects so that complaint seems invalid to me.

Except that with how Goblin Shamans and similar spellcasters fall under the list of potential leader figures it's not unlikely that any that do exist in the town have gathered their own little group or attached themselves to someone who has. In this situation odds are the shaman will not be on the outskirts but instead near a bunch of their Boyz.

Not really, in order to cover the entire path to the citadel we would need a not inconsiderable amount. If I had to guess at least a garbage bag full of them if we wanted to be in anyway thorough.

If find that this relies on a lot of speculation. For instance the assumption that because of geometry we won't be shot at, I find this highly unlikely as while it would be difficult for the Town Greenskins to shoot at us, it would be relatively easy for the Citadel Orcs to do so.

Why? Well mainly because this is a dwarven citadel and I highly doubt that a Dwarven citadel won't include things such as arrow slits and proper features that enable you to shoot at someone who is up against the wall. This is the biggest vulnerability of this plan beyond the Spell Casting difficulty we'd be completely exposed to the Citadel Orcs if they spot us, especially since they would be inside the Citadel and thus unaffect by Burning Shadow.

Grobi town seems orc ruled, not goblin, so that doesn't seem like an issue.

As far as the Citadel goes, we'd have shadow cloak active and the citadel would be being attacked from the other side. The Citadel has also been in orc hands for three thousand years. I doubt they've kept the details of the fortifications up to scratch. They also wouldn't know she was there to look for her, and the geometry would still be a real issue to get a shot without going somewhere you'd be in the citadels shadow and start melting. Not to mention that any projectile would also be in the shadow and being to melt. It wouldn't destroy it, but would be hell on the accuracy.

Some things to consider:
Since Mathilde only needs to touch the Citadel to cast the spell can't she basically stay at the top of the caldera touching it instead of going down to grobi town?

Yes, I thought that was implicit in my proposal. She cast it from the top of the avenue next to the citadel. Hence my comments about geometry. Apologies if it was unclear.

That requires the shamans to be exceptionally visible.

I'm not sure how noticable shamans are. Counterspelling does take time though, so Kragg could smoke them with a lightning bolt.

Well you see, there is this magical mystical place called The Outside.
And Out There, amazing thing happen. Why I heard they even Grow Trees.

Those orcs with the logistics and mercantile to import large bulk quantities of timber from many, many of miles away. You have to be impressed.

...So? It's a fairly unique opportunity and would be totally badass if we pulled it off, but that in of itself doesn't make it an intrinsically better means of achieving our objective than another plan.

Like, you and other have raised some perfectly reasonable points in favor of Burning Shadows, so I'm not sure why you're choosing to add what feels like "but it would be so cool tho" to that list.

It's also cool. And would have amazing PR points to do it right after Kragg dug into his bag of tricks. Now, before anyone says anything, that wasn't any part of the motivation to go down this route, but it would be pretty cool. But it's not just that.

It would also put the fear of the gods into any surviving greenskins or waching skaven, thoroughly breaking them in a way that a fire wouldn't, as a fire is much more mundane.

On top of that, i think it would kill al lot more of them than the fire would, as more would escape from a fire in the afternoon. I'd expect a huge Burning Shadow appearing and simultaneously covering a large part of the greenskin city at the crack of dawn when they're less likely to be awake/alert or have any clue where to run. If they ran away from the Citadel, for example, they'd stay within the shadow.

Thanks, added to the list.

Any other questions, from anyone?

Does Mathilde know if there are any surviving shamans that need assassination, or have any information either way?
 
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Right so given we have talked about using some of our money from the gambling to improve our estate I decided to go back and get the original options list for our land. For those who don't remember we already built a the well, granary, shrine and the blacksmith before we left from the expedition in case anyone wants it.
I'd point out that the current Organizations threadmark has the Estate making 35 Gp per turn.
 
1) The first possibility happens with the Fire plan as well, but I have a backup with the catapults.
2) We can be pretty sure there is no need for a ritual, so we can dismiss the second option
3) Not happening. We were told ' Between the recent religious disagreements and the rapid changes in leadership, the greenskins have fragmented into a dozen or more separate groups, and those that held the Citadel will allow none of the others to approach. '
4) If the shamans detect he she just runs, same as 1. Or she tries the spell anyway, and we go to case 5 because 3 still applies.
5) Melting probably makes it hard to counterspell. I f not, same as 1.

In the worst case, we get the same result as the fire plan with less risk to the rangers, simply 18-15 hours later.
1) Untrue. Two different approaches. One focusing on fire, another just having it as safeguard.
2) Very much false. We CANNOT be pretty sure of that. In fact we can be pretty sure of the opposite. Please do not state Your intepretation of things as a fact, especially as there are strong indications in opposite direction.
3) Not true. Please do not simply discount possiblity of situation changing over time. We delay attack, we risk it changing. Greenskins are rowdy bunch.
4) Untrue. One plan relies on Mathilde using spell to block entrance. Another does not.
5) Incorrect. The ritual. Long casting time, easily detectable, very delicate, plenty of time to counterspell. Effects appears only after it's finished.

In general, please do not state Your interpretation of situation as facts. It is honestly frustrating. You say it is not ritual, and it is not correct as far as I can see. You assume that situation cannot change in time if we delay, when it is very obviously the risk. You discount the 'cascade failure' of a plan that relies on Mathilde, equating it with plan that is designed to work also without her.
 
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