I'm pretty sure both of his jousts were hard fought, and that he fell in the middle of the melee, when fighting was fiercest. Dustin won his second bought easily, so he's probably in better shape than Unwin. Odds are he isn't coming out of facing dustin in good shape, if he wins at all.
Then again, our odds of being fresh as a daisy after jousting with Criston aren't what you'd call amazing, either...
Up to this point, we've jousted with Elmo and he "just grazed" Rhaenyra's shoulder- not a direct hit, as I understand it. We jousted with Borros and his lance hit our shield harmlessly while we struck true.
But Criston? Well, Criston may or may not have actually hit Raylon in the first two rounds of their joust, and he definitely got hit himself, but he managed a solid unhorsing hit in the third round. And then he hit Rogar Bolton three times in a row. Rogar took the hits because Boltons are sadomasochistic and crazy like that, but there's no reference to him actually hitting Criston back.
Putting this level of performance together, I am very confident that Criston
will hit Rhaenyra with a lance, and probably not just a glancing blow, either. We may end up in the same situation Rogar did and have him breaking a lance off on us every time we joust. The only question is whether Rhaenyra can stay on her horse through the lance hits and whether she'll be able to hit
him hard enough to unhorse him.
Rhaenyra has a reasonable amount of experience in this, from watching tournaments and talking about it with anyone who will stand still for a conversation. So I'm not saying she's
wrong to think that if she can beat Criston she can beat whoever comes after him. But it won't necessarily be easy.